Using fuzzy neural networks for RMB/USD real exchange rate forecasting

In order to aim at improving the forecasting performance of the RMB/USD exchange rate, this paper proposes a new architecture of fuzzy neural networks based on fuzzy logic, and the method of point differential, which guarantees not only the direction of weight correction, but also the needed precision for the BP algorithm. In applying genetic algorithms for optimal performance, this approach, in the forecasting of the RMB/USD real exchange rate from 1994 to 2000, obviously outperforms typical BP Neural Networks and exhibits a higher capacity in regard to nonlinear, time-variablility, and illegibility of the exchange rate.

Do the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices have asymmetric or symmetric effects on China’s stock prices?

With the rapid expansion of the RMB exchange rate’s floating range,the effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity price changes on China’s stock prices are likely to increase.This study uses both auto regressive distributed lag(ARDL)and nonlinear ARDL(NARDL)approaches to explore the symmetric and asymmetric effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices on China’s stock prices.Our findings show that without considering the critical variable of global commodity prices,there is no cointegration relationship between the RMB exchange rate and China’s stock prices,and the coefficient of the RMB exchange rate is not statistically significant.However,when we introduce global commodity prices into the NARDL model,the result shows that the RMB exchange rate has a negative effect on China’s stock prices,that there indeed exists a long-run cointegration relationship among the RMB exchange rate,global commodity prices,and stock prices in the NARDL model,and that global commodity price changes have an asymmetric effect on China’s stock prices in the long run.Specifically,China’s stock prices are more sensitive to increases than decreases in global commodity prices.Thus,increases in global commodity prices cause China’s stock prices to decline sharply.In contrast,the same magnitude of decline in global commodity prices induces a smaller increase in China’s stock prices.

Influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on urban-rural income from the perspective of transmission asymmetry

Based on time series data of RMB exchange rate and urban-rural income, this paper makes an empirical study for the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on urban-rural income by utilizing rolling regression model through direct and indirect transmission mechanisms. According to the results, the transmission effect of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on urban-rural income has features of incompleteness and asymmetry. Moreover, RMB appreciation will help to reduce the urban-rural income gap. Therefore, this paper suggests that the Chinese economy should accelerate the course of transforming mode, adjusting structure and promoting development under the new normal. Meanwhile, reform of RMB exchange rate mechanism should be promoted, living standard of residents must be improved, and the urban-rural income gap should be reduced.

Capital flows, economic growth and the real effective exchange rate: Evidence from China

This paper examines the Granger causal relationship between capital flows and economic growth in China over the period 1998Q1–2019Q2,allowing for real effective exchange rate(REER)effects.As parameter instability tests indicate structural changes,we use bootstrap rolling window causality tests,which suggest that the causal nexus between capital flows and GDP growth is time-varying.We find that the causal links between foreign direct investments(FDIs)and GDP growth are hardly affected by the REER,whereas the REER plays a more important role in affecting the causal connections between portfolio investments and other investments and GDP growth.Our results suggest that cumulative portfolio inflows and cumulative other investment inflows harm GDP growth,whereas cumulative portfolio outflows and cumula-tive other investment outflows positively affect GDP growth.

Structural Evolution of RMB Exchange Rate Reform: Historical Review, Experience and Prospect

The Renminbi(RMB)exchange rate regime reform has gone through three stages roughly once every decade since 1994.It is a structural evolution through the unification of dual exchange rates,increased fluctuations and central parity rate reform in response to the dynamic macro environment in China and abroad.This paper unpacks leading and supporting reforms for each stage and reviews the effects.The reform has developed historical experience in adopting progressive strategies,avoiding sharp exchange rate fluctuations in the near term,maintaining appropriate capital controls,and guaranteeing the reform through domestic structural reforms.Achieving a free-floating exchange rate will be the ultimate goal,but it will not be made easily in the short run.During the transitional period,it is recommended that an annual target zone for RMB's effective exchange rate be arranged for the CFETS currency basket,along with necessary capital controls.

Real Effective Exchange Rate and Regional Economic Growth in China： Evidence from Provincial Data

Using data for the period 2000-2011, we construct province-level real effective exchange rate （REER） indices for China and test the effect of REER depreciation on regional economic growth in a generalized method of moments regression framework. Our results show that REER depreciation, in general, promotes regional economic growth, through increasing net exports and lowering FDI costs. After dividing the full sample into coastal and inland subsamples, we find that REER depreciation influences economic growth in inland areas but not in coastal areas. This is due to the fact that the inland areas have more surplus labor or other resources to expand their production capacity when REER depreciation leads to increased worm demand. Furthermore, compared to inland areas, processing-and-assembly trade comprises a larger share of trade in the coastal areas, where traders import more raw materials and intermediate goods to process and assemble goods. When the exchange rate depreciates, the costs of imported materials and immediate goods increase. In this case, the benefits from REER depreciation in coastal areas are offset to some extent and are thus lower than in inland areas.

Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rate for China:2000-2009

This paper measures the industry-specific real effective exchange rate （REER） for China by matching domestic and foreign industry-level price and trade data series. We find that after 2005 the REER appreciates more in the ＂chemical, plastics, rubber and fuels industry＂ and the ＂＇machinery and equipment industry,＂ but remains roughly constant or even depreciates in other industries. The nominal exchange rate generally accounts for over 50 percent of the aggregate real effective exchange rate JTuetuations, but this conclusion does not apply to three of nine industries. We apply the industry-specific REER to re-examine the relationship between the exchange rate and trade, and find that the industry-specific REER index performs better than the traditional aggregate REER index. We recommend that the Chinese Government officially adopt industry-specific exchange rates instead of using the aggregate effective exchange rates to evaluate the competitiveness of Chinese industries in the international market.

Real Exchange Rate in China:A Long-run Perspective

This paper investigates the RMB exchange rate from a long-run viewpoint. Whether China＇s rapid economic growth brought about real exchange rate appreciation between 1975 and 2002 is empirically examined, based on a supply-side model, the Balassa-Semuelson Hypothesis （BSH）. The same test is conducted on Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and India. Our result indicates that the BSH only exists where the industrial structure has been upgraded and the economy has been successfully transformed from an agricultural economy to a manufacturing economy. Interestingly, China, among those where the BSH does not present, appears to be upgrading its industrial and trade structure. We then try to answer the question of why past rapid growth has no significant relationship with the RMB real exchange rate and what factors are underlying the trend of the RMB real exchange rate. We expect an appreciating trend of RMB real exchange rate in the foreseeable future, presuming that China＇s industrial upgrading process continues and the factors pertaining to the BSH＇s prediction, such as rise of wage rates in both tradables and nontradables, become more significant.

The Political Cause of the Movement of RMB Exchange Rate： A Research Based on the Spillover Effects of US Political Cycle

Movement of the renminbi （RMB） exchange rate is not only affected by economic factors, but also by political factors home and aboard. This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of political cycles on the RMB exchange rate first, and then sets up a ＂political cycle spillover effect model＂ followed by an empirical analysis. We find that： （1） the US political cycle has a direct effect on the RMB exchange rate in the short run, which is mainly transmitted by capital flows and China＇s exchange rate policy control; （2） the RMB exchange rate changes periodically in accordance with the US presidential election and midterm election cycle, with the appreciation ratio significantly lower in the first year of the election cycle, while significantly higher in the year after the midterm election; （3） The effect of the political cycle will not be affected by which party holds power, though it will be affected if the president and parliament are ruled by the same party. This paper not only extends the research of the influencing factors of the RMB exchange rate to the political field, but also sets up a use theoretical model to analyze the impact of political issues on the RMB exchange rate, providing a new perspective to fully understand the external environment of RMB exchange rate reform.

全球经济政策不确定性、人民币汇率与中国经济波动——基于非对称视角的理论与实证分析

随着全球经济一体化的加深,全球经济政策不确定性和人民币汇率对中国经济波动产生越来越大的影响。基于非对称影响的视角,构建一个融入全球经济政策不确定性、人民币汇率和经济波动的Mundell-Fleming模型,从理论上分析各要素的非对称影响机制。实证结果表明:短期内人民币升值对物价水平的抑制效应大于贬值对物价水平的促进效应,长期内人民币升值对经济增长的抑制效应大于贬值对经济增长的促进效应;此外,无论在短期还是长期,全球经济政策不确定性降低对物价水平和经济增长的促进作用都大于经济政策不确定性上升的抑制效应。以上结果均通过稳健性检验。因此,央行需要加强对汇率与全球经济政策不确定性对物价水平和经济增长的非对称效应的关注,以实现中国经济的平稳运行。

人民币汇率变动与企业创新的“质”与“量”——基于产业链溢出效应

本文利用2000~2014年的中国工业企业数据库、海关贸易数据库、企业专利数据库以及2007年中国投入产出表,基于产业链视角验证了人民币升值对制造业企业创新的影响。研究结果表明,人民币升值能显著提高企业创新能力,并且产业链在其中发挥着异质性效果:企业会因其所处产业链位置表现出创新“量”与“质”的差异。人民币升值对上游企业创新质量的促进作用更强,而对创新数量的影响并不明显。机制分析发现:人民币升值带来的进口中间品增加会在产业链中形成行业间技术溢出效应以及行业内竞争效应,均对企业创新模式产生重要影响;上游企业在全产业链中表现出“质量引领效应”。本研究为企业在“双循环”发展格局下利用行业生产网络效应提高自身创新提供建设性方向。

China's Import–exchange Rate Linkage:Evidence from the China-bound Exports of Japan and Korea

This paper examines how the China-bound exports of Japan and Korea are related to exchange rates, motivated by the fact that processing trade makes up a large proportion of China＇s trade, and that Japan and Korea are the leading source countries for processing imports. Because processing imports are inputs for exports, the link between such imports and China＇s exchange rates are ambiguous. We estimate export functions that include China＇s RMB real effective exchauge rates （REER） along with bilateral real exchange rates （B RER） using Johausen ＇s cointegration method aud find that the RMB REER significantly affects Japanese and Korean exports to China, even more so than BRER in most cases examined. These two exchange rates appear in the export equations with opposite signs. Subsequently, we use the estimated model to illustrate the importance of accounting for a concurrent change in B RER when analyzing the effects of a hypothetical RMB revaluation on China＇s trade balances despite the apparently weak imports-B RER linkage.

经济自由与实际汇率升值:来自102个经济体的经验证据

巴拉萨-萨缪尔森理论是实际汇率决定的经典理论。该理论及其大部分拓展研究都建立在市场完全竞争的假定条件下。然而这一假定与现实存在明显的差异。基于1996—2019年102个经济体的面板数据,实证考察经济自由对实际汇率升值的影响。基准回归结果表明,经济自由程度的增加会导致实际汇率升值。稳健性检验与内生性检验后结果依然成立。机制分析表明,经济自由程度的提高可以通过可贸易品部门的生产率渠道推动实际汇率升值。党的二十大报告指出,中国将稳步推动高标准市场体系的构建,要完善市场经济基础制度和扩大规则、规制、管理、标准等制度型开放。研究为宏观经济研究者与政策制定者理解制度因素(自由经济制度)与实际汇率变动间的关系提供了经验证据。

人民币均衡实际汇率:基于Montiel理论模型的研究

以Montiel的理论模型作为选择实际基本经济要素的主要依据,在参考中外学者对均衡汇率研究成果的基础上,结合我国实际情况,运用1980-2006年间相关经济变量数据,构建人民币均衡汇率模型。分析表明:这段时期分别存在人民币低估与高估的问题。人民币均衡汇率应是动态变化的,钉住一篮子货币能较好地反映人民币实际有效汇率的波动。

人民币实际汇率决定性因素研究——“Balassa-Samuelson假说”的扩展与可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)的分析

要求人民币升值的国际压力部分来自快速的经济增长应当与实际汇率升值相联系的观点,这与"Balassa-Samuelson假说"相关联,它认为贸易部门劳动生产率提高会引起非贸易部门的价格上涨,但人民币实际汇率没有显示出长期升值的趋势。本研究扩展了"Balassa-Samuelson假说",并引入扩展的1-2-3(CGE)模型进行实证分析。主要结论有:大量剩余劳动力的存在压低了中国的实际汇率,从而没有观察到"Balassa-Samuelson假说";如果更多的农村劳动力流向服务业部门,即非贸易部门,实际汇率也将面临向下的压力。

出口贸易相关因素的实证研究——对中国1981～2005年数据的PLS分析

运用偏最小二乘(PLS)回归方法,将影响中国出口贸易的因素归纳为3个因子:外部拉动与内部直接推动因子、金融因子和贸易条件因子;建立了出口贸易与其影响因素间的经济计量模型,实证分析发现贸易条件对出口贸易影响显著,而加工贸易进口和外商直接投资影响微弱,但金融因素的作用不容忽视。最后提出相应的调控措施,使得出口贸易按照政府的宏观经济目标顺利运行。

Exchange Rate Change, Factor Market Distortion and Company Performance

Based on the matched data of China’s tax survey and customs from 2007 to 2011,this paper studies the differential impact of exchange rate changes on the performance of companies by region from the perspective of factor market distortion.The results show that for import companies,the RMB appreciation significantly contributes to improving their performance and this phenomenon is more pronounced in areas with high factor market distortions.Channel tests show that the proportion of intermediate goods imported by final producers increases with regional factor market distortions.Therefore,the appreciation of the national currency is more favorable for areas with high factor market distortions(companies with high proportion of imported intermediate goods).In addition,the appreciation of the national currency will promote the production of China’s upstream intermediate goods producers by expanding the output of downstream enterprises.This paper complements previous studies on the differential impact of RMB exchange rate changes on regional economic growth from a micro perspective.

Renminbi already overappreciated:Evidence from FEERs(1994-2008)

The renminbi appreciated against the U.S.dollar by 21% from July 2005 to February 2009.Thousands of enterprises f iled bankruptcy and many people lost their jobs in 2007-2008,all of which was possibly the result of over-appreciation.Nevertheless,estimation of the RMB equilibrium rate in recent studies shows that the current rate is still undervalued.By estimating the RMB fundamental equilibrium exchange rate,in contrast with other studies,we have found that the RMB rate may have been overvalued by the end of 2008.

房地产繁荣、金融发展与人民币实际汇率

金融发展可抑制因资本流入或国外汇款所引发的本币实际升值,那么金融发展是否能够抑制房地产业繁荣对人民币实际汇率的升值性影响?本文发现,金融发展在房地产投资对实际汇率的影响中的作用是动态、非单向的,经历了一个从抑制到助长的过程,即在房地产扩张初期,金融部门规模亦较小的情况下,它能抑制房地产投资对实际汇率产生的升值影响,但在后期,则与房地产投资一起推动了人民币实际升值。