Real Exchange Rate in China:A Long-run Perspective

This paper investigates the RMB exchange rate from a long-run viewpoint. Whether China＇s rapid economic growth brought about real exchange rate appreciation between 1975 and 2002 is empirically examined, based on a supply-side model, the Balassa-Semuelson Hypothesis （BSH）. The same test is conducted on Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and India. Our result indicates that the BSH only exists where the industrial structure has been upgraded and the economy has been successfully transformed from an agricultural economy to a manufacturing economy. Interestingly, China, among those where the BSH does not present, appears to be upgrading its industrial and trade structure. We then try to answer the question of why past rapid growth has no significant relationship with the RMB real exchange rate and what factors are underlying the trend of the RMB real exchange rate. We expect an appreciating trend of RMB real exchange rate in the foreseeable future, presuming that China＇s industrial upgrading process continues and the factors pertaining to the BSH＇s prediction, such as rise of wage rates in both tradables and nontradables, become more significant.

人民币实际汇率与经济增长关系的实证研究

经济理论表明,汇率与经济增长关系密切,实际汇率贬值促进经济增长,经济增长引起实际汇率升值。人民币实际有效汇率与经济增长的关系体现为人民币实际有效汇率贬值促进经济增长,而不是经济增长导致人民币实际有效汇率升值。人民币实际有效汇率贬值的经济增长效应显著存在,且有提高趋势。

人民币实际有效汇率、FDI与中国经济增长——兼论巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应在中国的适用性

本文在VAR模型的基础上,利用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应函数,研究了人民币实际有效汇率、FDI和中国经济增长的动态关系。结果表明,长期内人民币实际有效汇率贬值,促进了FDI流入;中国经济增长促进了人民币实际有效汇率的升值,证明了巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应的存在。

经济增长对实际汇率的影响:基于巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应的分析

巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应假说认为经历高速经济增长的国家,其贸易品部门的生产率提高较快,这将导致实际汇率升值。本文利用1978-2010年的中国年度时间序列数据对巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应假说进行实证检验,结果表明巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应在中国是显著成立的,从长期看中国两部门相对劳动生产率的提高会带来人民币实际汇率的升值。

中国经济趋势预测:稳定、调整和发展

在连续17年单边快速升值之后,人民币汇率走势目前转为在浮动中缓慢升值,这有利于中国出口和经济安全与发展。中国经济增长潜力不容忽视。未来5至7年,中国经济增长率应保持在8%以上,物价控制在6%以下。在发挥传统产业潜力的基础上,实现产业升级和发展模式转换,关键是克服既得利益集团干扰,避免发生重大决策失误。中国作为人口大国,经济发展应主要依靠内需,启动内需应进行一系列重大改革,如建立社会保障基金,改革房地产业等。