Analysis of Heavy Precipitation Event in Northeast China from August 1 to 5, 2023

This study delves into the multiple weather systems and their interaction mechanisms that caused the severe rainfall event in Northeast China in early August 2023. The analysis reveals that the atmospheric circulation in the mid-to-high latitudes of the Eurasian continent exhibited a significant “two troughs and two ridges” structure, with Northeast China located precisely in the peripheral region of the subtropical high, significantly influenced by its marginal airflows. Additionally, the residual circulation of Typhoon “Doksuri” interacting with the subtropical high and upper-level troughs significantly increased the rainfall intensity and duration in the region. In particular, the continuous and powerful transport of the southwest jet provided the necessary moisture and unstable conditions for the generation and development of convective systems. The rainfall event resulted in nearly 40,000 people affected and crop damage covering an area of approximately 4000 hectares, demonstrating the severity of extreme weather. The study emphasizes that strengthening meteorological monitoring and early warning systems, as well as formulating and improving emergency response mechanisms, are crucial for reducing potential disaster losses caused by heavy rainfall. Future research can further explore the interaction mechanisms among weather systems, limitations of data sources, and the connection between long-term trends of heavy rainfall events and global climate change.

Analysis on Precipitation Efficiency of the “21.7” Henan Extremely Heavy Rainfall Event

A record-breaking heavy rainfall event that occurred in Zhengzhou,Henan province during 19–21 July 2021 is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model,and the large-scale precipitation efficiency(LSPE)and cloud-microphysical precipitation efficiency(CMPE)of the rainfall are analyzed based on the model results.Then,the key physical factors that influenced LSPE and CMPE,and the possible mechanisms for the extreme rainfall over Zhengzhou are explored.Results show that water vapor flux convergence was the key factor that influenced LSPE.Water vapor was transported by the southeasterly winds between Typhoon In-Fa(2021)and the subtropical high,and the southerly flow of Typhoon Cempaka(2021),and converged in Zhengzhou due to the blocking by the Taihang and Funiu Mountains in western Henan province.Strong moisture convergence centers were formed on the windward slope of the mountains,which led to high LSPE in Zhengzhou.From the perspective of CMPE,the net consumption of water vapor by microphysical processes was the key factor that influenced CMPE.Quantitative budget analysis suggests that water vapor was mainly converted to cloud water and ice-phase particles and then transformed to raindrops through melting of graupel and accretion of cloud water by rainwater during the heavy precipitation stage.The dry intrusion in the middle and upper levels over Zhengzhou made the high potential vorticity descend from the upper troposphere and enhanced the convective instability.Moreover,the intrusion of cold and dry air resulted in the supersaturation and condensation of water vapor,which contributed to the heavy rainfall in Zhengzhou.

Comprehensive applicability evaluation of four precipitation products at multiple spatiotemporal scales in Northwest China

Precipitation plays a crucial role in the water cycle of Northwest China.Obtaining accurate precipitation data is crucial for regional water resource management,hydrological forecasting,flood control and drought relief.Currently,the applicability of multi-source precipitation products for long time series in Northwest China has not been thoroughly evaluated.In this study,precipitation data from 183 meteorological stations in Northwest China from 1979 to 2020 were selected to assess the regional applicability of four precipitation products(the fifth generation of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate(ERA5),Global Precipitation Climatology Centre(GPCC),Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series Version 4.07(CRU TS v4.07,hereafter CRU),and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM))based on the following statistical indicators:correlation coefficient,root mean square error(RMSE),relative bias(RB),mean absolute error(MAE),probability of detection(POD),false alarm ratio(FAR),and equitable threat score(ETS).The results showed that precipitation in Northwest China was generally high in the east and low in the west,and exhibited an increasing trend from 1979 to 2020.Compared with the station observations,ERA5 showed a larger spatial distribution difference than the other products.The overall overestimation of multi-year average precipitation was approximately 200.00 mm and the degree of overestimation increased with increasing precipitation intensity.The multi-year average precipitation of GPCC and CRU was relatively close to that of station observations.The trend of annual precipitation of TRMM was overestimated in high-altitude regions and the eastern part of Lanzhou with more precipitation.At the monthly scale,GPCC performed well but underestimated precipitation in the Tarim Basin(RB=-4.11%),while ERA5 and TRMM exhibited poor accuracy in high-altitude regions.ERA5 had a large bias(RB≥120.00%)in winter months and a strong dispersion(RMSE≥35.00 mm)in summer months.TRMM showed a relatively low correlation with station observations in winter months(correlation coefficients≤0.70).The capture performance analysis showed that ERA5,GPCC,and TRMM had lower POD and ETS values and higher FAR values in Northwest China as the precipitation intensity increased.ERA5 showed a high capture performance for small precipitation events and a slower decreasing trend of POD as the precipitation intensity increased.GPCC had the lowest FAR values.TRMM was statistically ineffective for predicting the occurrence of daily precipitation events.The findings provide a reference for data users to select appropriate datasets in Northwest China and for data developers to develop new precipitation products in the future.

Case Study: ENSO Events, Rainfall Variability and the Potential of SOI for the Seasonal Precipitation Predictions in Iran

The studies in recent decades show that many natural disasters such as tropical severe storms, hurricanes development, torrential rain, river flooding, and landslides in some regions of the world and severe droughts and wildfires in other areas are due to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This research aims to contribute to an improved definition of the relation between ENSO and seasonal (autumn and winter) variability of rainfall over Iran. The results show that during autumn, the positive phase of SOI is associated with decrease in the rainfall amount in most part of the country;negative phase of SOI is associated with a significant increase in the rainfall amount. It is also found that, during the winter time when positive phase of SOI is dominant, winter precipitation increases in most areas of the eastern part of the country while at the same time the decreases in the amount of rainfall in other parts is not significant. Moreover, with negative phase of SOI in winter season the amount of rainfall in most areas except south shores of Caspian Sea in the north decreases, so that the decrease of rainfall amount in the eastern part is statistically significant.

Rainfall Factors in the Prediction of Rainfall-induced Debris Flow

Various rainfall factors,which affect the activities of rainfall-induced debris flow,are discussed in this paper.The factors include antecedent precipitation,current precipitation,rainfall duration,intensity,peak,and rainfall pattern.Rainfall-induced debris flow is trigged by the co-action of current rainfall and antecedent rainfall.The advanced system of precipitation monitoring and forecasting in the rainfall-induced debris flow forecast system is established,which consists of four methods-numerical weather prediction,stationary meteorological satellite,weather radar echo and automatic weather station.Since the forecast of rainfall-induced debris flow is based on the prediction of precipitation,the prediction models objectively require more detailed and precise prediction products,which put forward a new research subject for meteorologists.

Differences between Convective and Stratiform Precipitation Budgets in a Torrential Rainfall Event

Differences in rainfall budgets between convective and stratiform regions of a torrential rainfall event were investigated using high-resolution simulation data produced by the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. The convective and stratiform regions were reasonably separated by the radar-based convective–stratiform partitioning method, and the threedimensional WRF-based precipitation equation combining water vapor and hydrometeor budgets was further used to analyze the rainfall budgets. The results showed that the magnitude of precipitation budget processes in the convective region was one order larger than that in the stratiform region. In convective/stratiform updraft regions, precipitation was mainly from the contribution of moisture-related processes, with a small negative contribution from cloud-related processes. In convective/stratiform downdraft regions, cloud-related processes played positive roles in precipitation, while moisture-related processes made a negative contribution. Moisture flux convergence played a dominant role in the moisture-related processes in convective or stratiform updraft regions, which was closely related to large-scale dynamics. Differences in cloud-related processes between convective and stratiform regions were more complex compared with those in moisture-related processes.Both liquid-and ice-phase microphysical processes were strong in convective/stratiform updraft regions, and ice-phase processes were dominant in convective/stratiform downdraft regions. There was strong net latent heating within almost the whole troposphere in updraft regions, especially in the convective updraft region, while the net latent heating(cooling) mainly existed above(below) the zero-layer in convective/stratiform downdraft regions.

Spatial Downscaling of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Precipitation Using Geographically Weighted Regression Kriging over the Lancang River Basin, China

Satellite-based precipitation products have been widely used to estimate precipitation, especially over regions with sparse rain gauge networks. However, the low spatial resolution of these products has limited their application in localized regions and watersheds.This study investigated a spatial downscaling approach, Geographically Weighted Regression Kriging(GWRK), to downscale the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) 3 B43 Version 7 over the Lancang River Basin(LRB) for 2001–2015. Downscaling was performed based on the relationships between the TRMM precipitation and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI), the Land Surface Temperature(LST), and the Digital Elevation Model(DEM). Geographical ratio analysis(GRA) was used to calibrate the annual downscaled precipitation data, and the monthly fractions derived from the original TRMM data were used to disaggregate annual downscaled and calibrated precipitation to monthly precipitation at 1 km resolution. The final downscaled precipitation datasets were validated against station-based observed precipitation in 2001–2015. Results showed that: 1) The TRMM 3 B43 precipitation was highly accurate with slight overestimation at the basin scale(i.e., CC(correlation coefficient) = 0.91, Bias = 13.3%). Spatially, the accuracies of the upstream and downstream regions were higher than that of the midstream region. 2) The annual downscaled TRMM precipitation data at 1 km spatial resolution obtained by GWRK effectively captured the high spatial variability of precipitation over the LRB. 3) The annual downscaled TRMM precipitation with GRA calibration gave better accuracy compared with the original TRMM dataset. 4) The final downscaled and calibrated precipitation had significantly improved spatial resolution, and agreed well with data from the validated rain gauge stations, i.e., CC = 0.75, RMSE(root mean square error) = 182 mm, MAE(mean absolute error) = 142 mm, and Bias = 0.78%for annual precipitation and CC = 0.95, RMSE = 25 mm, MAE = 16 mm, and Bias = 0.67% for monthly precipitation.

Changes in the Proportion of Precipitation Occurring as Rain in Northern Canada during Spring–Summer from 1979–2015

Changes in the form of precipitation have a considerable impact on the Arctic cryosphere and ecological system by influencing the energy balance and surface runoff. In this study, station observations and ERA-Interim data were used to analyze changes in the rainfall to precipitation ratio（RPR） in northern Canada during the spring–summer season（March–July）from 1979–2015. Our results indicate that ERA-Interim describes the spring–summer variations and trends in temperature and the RPR well. Both the spring–summer mean temperature [0.4℃–1℃（10 yr）^（-1）] and the RPR [2%–6%（10 yr）^（-1）] increased significantly in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 1979–2015. Moreover, we suggest that, aside from the contribution of climate warming, the North Atlantic Oscillation is probably another key factor influencing temporal and spatial differences in the RPR over northern Canada.

A comparison of summer precipitation structures over the South China Sea and the East China Sea based on tropical rainfall measurement mission

The three-dimensional structures of summer precipitation over the South China Sea （SCS） and the East China Sea （ECS） are investigated based on tropical rainfall measurement mission （TRMM）. The primary results are as follows. First, both the convective and stratiform precipitation rates in the SCS are much higher than those of the ECS. The contribution of the convective cloud precipitation to the surface precipitation is primarily over the SCS and the ECS with a proportion of about 70%, but the contribution of convective cloud precipitation is slightly larger in the SCS than the ECS. The contribution of stratus precipitation is slightly larger in the ECS than that in the SCS. Second, the content of cloud particles and precipitation particles in the ECS in June was greater than that in the SCS, while in July and August, the content of cloud and precipitation particles in the ECS was less than that in the SCS. Third, the latent heat profile of the ECS is quite different from that of the SCS. In June, the peak values of evaporation and condensation latent heating rates in the ECS are greater than those in the SCS. In July and August, however, the peak values of evaporation and condensation latent heating rates in the ECS are about 0.05°/h less than those in the SCS.

Evaluation of Radar and Automatic Weather Station Data Assimilation for a Heavy Rainfall Event in Southern China

To improve the accuracy of short-term （0-12 h） forecasts of severe weather in southern China, a real-time storm-scale forecasting system, the Hourly Assimilation and Prediction System （HAPS）, has been implemented in Shenzhen, China. The forecasting system is characterized by combining the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF-ARW） model and the Advanced Regional Prediction System （ARPS） three-dimensional variational data assimilation （3DVAR） pack- age. It is capable of assimilating radar reflectivity and radial velocity data from multiple Doppler radars as well as surface automatic weather station （AWS） data. Experiments are designed to evaluate the impacts of data assimilation on quantitative precipitation forecasting （QPF） by studying a heavy rainfall event in southern China. The forecasts from these experiments are verified against radar, surface, and precipitation observations. Comparison of echo structure and accumulated precipitation suggests that radar data assimilation is useful in improving the short-term forecast by capturing the location and orientation of the band of accumulated rainfall. The assimilation of radar data improves the short-term precipitation forecast skill by up to 9 hours by producing more convection. The slight but generally positive impact that surface AWS data has on the forecast of near-surface variables can last up to 6-9 hours. The assimilation of AWS observations alone has some benefit for improving the Fractions Skill Score （FSS） and bias scores; when radar data are assimilated, the additional AWS data may increase the degree of rainfall overprediction.

Meteorological Drought Detection and Forecast Using Standardized Precipitation Index and Univariate Distribution Models: Case Study of Bamako, Mali

As an extended period of unusually dry weather conditions without sufficient rain, drought poses enormous risk on societies. Characterized by the absence of precipitation for long periods of time, often resulting in water scarcity, droughts are increasingly posing significant environmental challenges. Drought is therefore considered an important element in the management of water resources, especially groundwater resources during drought. This study therefore sought to investigate the rainfall variability and the frequency of drought for the period 1991 to 2020 in Bamako based on monthly rainfall data from Bamako-Senou gauge station. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) for 12-month, 6-month and 3-month timescales and the SPI for annual totals were used to characterized drought in the study area (Bamako). Univariate parametric probability distributions such as Normal, Log-normal, Gumbel type I and Pearson type III (P3) distributions were fitted with drought variables (severity and duration) for future planning and management. Non-parametric test such as Mann-Kendall trend test was also used to detect trend in annual rainfall data. The results showed that based on 12-month SPI, Bamako experienced two (02) extreme droughts one in July 2002 (SPI = -2.2165) and another in June 2015 (SPI = -2.0598 QUOTE SPI=-2.0598 ). Drought years represented 46.67% for the overall periods according to the SPI for annual totals. The result further indicated that based on the goodness of fit test, the P3 distribution represents the best fitted distribution to both drought severity and duration over Bamako. Bamako is expected to experience several severe severities with higher and shorter duration in the future. Severities with 1, 2, 6, and 10-month duration had return periods ranged from 2.4 to 3.8 years, while 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100-year return periods had 18.51, 26.08, 33.25, 35.50, 42.38, and 49.14 severities, respectively, and durations associated to these severities were 19.8, 26.9, 33.5, 35.6, 42, and 48.2 months, respectively.

Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Events (Drought and Flood) over Tordzie Watershed in the Volta Region of Ghana

In regional water resources management and disaster preparedness, the analysis of extreme rainfall events is essential. The need to investigate drought and flood conditions is now heightened within the context of climate change and variability. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed to assess the extreme rainfall event on Tordzie watershed using precipitation data from 1984-2014. The SPI on the time scale of 3, 6, 9 and 12 months were determined using “DrinC” software. The drought was characterised into magnitude, duration, intensity, frequency, commencement and termination at the time scales of SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-9 and SPI-12. Results indicated that the middle reaches (Kpetoe) of the watershed experienced less severe drought condition compared to the lower reaches (Tordzinu). Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope (SS) revealed general increasing drought trend but insignificant at 95% confidence interval. The SS indicated change in magnitude of 0.016 mm/year, 0.012 mm/year, 0.026 mm/year and 0.016 mm/year respectively at the mentioned time scales at 95% confidence interval at the Tordzinu and that of Kpetoe were 0.006 mm/year, 0.009 mm/year, 0.014 mm/year and 0.003 mm/year. These changes could have implication for agriculture and water resources management and engender food insecurity among smallholder farmers.

Drought trend analysis in a semi-arid area of Iraq based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Water Index and Standardized Precipitation Index

Drought was a severe recurring phenomenon in Iraq over the past two decades due to climate change despite the fact that Iraq has been one of the most water-rich countries in the Middle East in the past.The Iraqi Kurdistan Region(IKR)is located in the north of Iraq,which has also suffered from extreme drought.In this study,the drought severity status in Sulaimaniyah Province,one of four provinces of the IKR,was investigated for the years from 1998 to 2017.Thus,Landsat time series dataset,including 40 images,were downloaded and used in this study.The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)and the Normalized Difference Water Index(NDWI)were utilized as spectral-based drought indices and the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)was employed as a meteorological-based drought index,to assess the drought severity and analyse the changes of vegetative cover and water bodies.The study area experienced precipitation deficiency and severe drought in 1999,2000,2008,2009,and 2012.Study findings also revealed a drop in the vegetative cover by 33.3%in the year 2000.Furthermore,the most significant shrinkage in water bodies was observed in the Lake Darbandikhan(LDK),which lost 40.5%of its total surface area in 2009.The statistical analyses revealed that precipitation was significantly positively correlated with the SPI and the surface area of the LDK(correlation coefficients of 0.92 and 0.72,respectively).The relationship between SPI and NDVI-based vegetation cover was positive but not significant.Low precipitation did not always correspond to vegetative drought;the delay of the effect of precipitation on NDVI was one year.

Precipitation Evolution from Plain to Mountains during the July 2023 Extreme Heavy Rainfall Event in North China

North China experienced devastating rainfall from 29 July to 1 August 2023,which caused substantial flooding and damage.This study analyzed observations from surface rain gauges and S-band dual-polarization radars to reveal the following unique features of the precipitation evolution from the plain to the mountains during this event.(1) The total rainfall was found concentrated along the Taihang Mountains at elevations generally > 200 m,and its spatiotemporal evolution was closely associated with northward-moving low-level jets.(2) Storms propagated northwestward with southeasterly steering winds,producing continuous rainfall along the eastern slopes of the Taihang Mountains owing to mountain blocking,which resulted in the formation of local centers of precipitation maxima.However,most rainfall episodes with an extreme hourly rainfall rate(HRR),corresponding to large horizontal wind shear at low levels,actively occurred in the plain area to the east of the Taihang Mountains.(3) The western portion of the extreme heavy rain belt in the north was mainly caused by long-lasting cumulus–stratus mixed precipitation with HRR< 20 mm h~(-1);the eastern portion was dominated by short-duration convective precipitation with HRR > 20 mm h~(-1).The contributions of convective precipitation and cumulus–stratus mixed precipitation to the total rainfall of the southern and middle rain belts were broadly equivalent.(4) The local HRR maxima located at the transition zone from the plain to the mountains were induced by moderate storm-scale convective cells with active warm-rain processes and large number of small-sized rain droplets.(5) During the devastating rainfall event,it was observed that the rainfall peaked at around 1800 local time(LT) every day over the upstream plain area(no diurnal cycle of rainfall was observed in relation to the accumulated rainfall centers over mountain areas).This was attributable to convective activities along the storm propagation path,which was a result of the more unstable stratification with a suitable steering mechanism that was related to afternoon solar heating and enhanced water vapor.The findings of this study improve our understanding and knowledge of the extreme precipitation that can develop from the plain to the mountains in North China.

ISOTOPE EFFECT OF PRECIPITATION AND MOTION REGULARITY OF RAINFALL CLOUD IN THE SOUTH TIBET

The water system in Tibet distributes mainly in the south, and the water originates from precipitation. The local rainy season is from May to July. Finding out the origin and motion regularity on the regional atmospheric precipitation clouds is always emphases about the hydrology and water resource research.37 precipitation samples were collected from 1995 to 1998 in this research area. The hydrogen, oxygen isotope compositions and tritium contents were determined (see table).The results on the table has the follow feature:1 The precipitation line equation Go through regression handling, the precipitation equation is: δ D=7 54 δ 18 O+15 92( n =31),Fall down the right side in the global precipitation line shows stronger evaporation feature, and reflects the disequilibrium level on the Raleigh Fraction in rainfall cloud transportation proceeding.

Study on the Effects of Extreme Precipitation for Seven Growth Stages of Winter Wheat in Northern Weihe Loess Plateau, China

The research on the characteristic frequency of precipitation is a great significance for guiding regional agricultural planning, water conservancy project designs, and drought and flood control. Droughts and floods occurred in northern Weihe Loess Plateau, affecting growing and yield of winter wheat in the area. Based on the daily precipitation data of 29 meteorological stations from 1981 to 2012, this study is to address the analysis of three different frequencies of annual precipitation at 5%, 50%, and 95%, and to determine the amount of rainfall excess and water shortage during seven growth stages of winter wheat at 5%, 10%, and 20% frequencies, respectively. Pearson type III curve was selected for this study to analyze the distribution frequency of annual rainfall and rainfall amount following seven growth stages of winter wheat crop in 29 stations of Northern Weihe loess plateau. As a result of our study, annual precipitation is gradually increasing from southwest to northeast of Northern Weihe loess plateau. The highest amount of annual precipitation occurred in the Baoji area and the lowest precipitation covered by the northwest area of Northern Weihe loess plateau. Moreover, the amount of rainfall of seven growth stages indicates that excessive rainfall occurs not only in the first stage (sowing to tillering) and seventh stage (flowering to ripening) but also in second stage (tillering to wintering). In the seventh stage, a large amount of excessive rainfall occurred in Changwu, Bin, Qianyang, Fengxiang, Baojiqu, and Baojixian. Moreover, water shortage is distributed in the third stage (from wintering to greening), the fourth stage (from greening to jointing), the fifth stage (from jointing to heading), and the sixth stage (from heading to flowering). Furthermore, the worst water shortages occurred in Hancheng, Heyang, Chengcheng, Pucheng, Dali, Tongchuan, and Fuping in the fourth stage (greening to jointing stage). Even though we study the crop water requirement under extreme rainfall conditions, the amount of rainwater still supply inadequate in some parts of the winter wheat growth stage. Therefore, this study provides main clues for the next step to study the irrigation water needs of winter wheat crops and to reduce agricultural risks in 29 counties in the northern loess plateau and other regions.

The Impact of Orographically-Induced Gravity Waves on the Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall over Southeast Kalimantan Island

Precipitation measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite indicate that the southeastern area of Kalimantan (Borneo) Island receives much less rainfall than elsewhere on the island during the period from July to October.Results from sur-face meteorological observations show that the diurnal cycle of rainfall differs greatly between the eastern and western coasts of the island.Rainfall on the western coast of the island is frequent in the afternoon and evening,whereas almost all rainfall on the eastern coast occurs in the morning.Meanwhile,the Global Positioning System (GPS)-derived precipitable water (PW) on the eastern coast shows a substantial decrease in moisture in the af-ternoon and evening.Numerical experiments with a mesoscale model reveal that gravity waves driven by di-urnal heating of the elevated land surface of the moun-tains on Sulawesi Island,which lies approximately 300 kilometers to the east of Kalimantan Island,significantly affect the diurnal cycle of rainfall over southeast Kali-mantan Island.

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS FOR THE EFFECTS OF TWO MODEL INITIALIZATION SCHEMES ON RAINFALL FORECAST IN THE 2008 FLOODING SEASON

In this paper, based on heavy rain numerical forecast model AREM(Advanced Regional Eta Model), two different initialization schemes, LAPS and GRAPES-3DVAR, are used to run assimilation experiments of AREM-LAPS and AREM-3DVAR with the same data source(NCEP forecast field, surface data and radio-soundings) during the period from 21 May to 30 July 2008 to investigate the effect of the two initialization schemes on the rainfall simulation. The result suggests that:(1) the forecast TS score by the AREM-LAPS is higher than that by the AREM-3DVAR for rainfall in different areas, at different valid time and with different intensity, especially for the heavy rain, rainstorm and extremely heavy rain;(2) the AREM-3DVAR can generally simulate the average rainfall distribution, but the forecast area is smaller and rainfall intensity is weaker than the observation, while the AREM-LAPS significantly improves the forecast;(3) the AREM-LAPS gives a better forecast for the south-north shift of rainfall bands and the rainfall intensity variation than the AREM-3DVAR;(4) the AREM-LAPS can give a better reproduction for the daily change in the mean-rainfall-rate of the main rain band, and rainfall intensity changes in the eastern part of Southwest China, the coastal area in South China, the middle-lower valleys of Yangtze river, the Valleys of Huaihe river, and Shandong peninsula, with the rainfall intensity roughly close to the observation, while the rainfall intensity simulated by the AREM-3DVAR is clearly weaker than the observation, especially in the eastern part of Southwest China; and(5) the comparison verification between the AREM-LAPS and AREM-3DVAR for more than 10 typical rainfall processes in the summer of 2008 indicates that the AREM-LAPS gives a much better forecast than AREM-3DVAR in rain-band area, rainfall location and intensity, and in particular, the rainfall intensity forecast is improved obviously.

Spatio-Temporal Variation in Rainfall Erosivity over Jordan Using Annual and Seasonal Precipitation

The objective of this research is to estimate the annual and seasonal rainfall erosivity over Jordan based on three different regression models. Readily available annual and seasonal precipitation data with long records (40 - 53 years) pertaining to 40 weather stations were utilized to estimate rainfall erosivity. The spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity over Jordan is controlled largely by morphological (relief) and climatic factors. The lowest R-values (28 MJ mm.ha-1.h-1.yr-1) are found in the arid zone, where the average annual rainfall is below 100 mm, whereas the highest R-values are found in the northern highlands (505 MJ mm.ha-1.h-1.yr-1) where the average annual rainfall approaches 650 mm. The correlation between annual and seasonal precipitation (mm) and annual erosivity exhibits a very strong relationship (R varies from 0.964 to 1.0, and all correlations are significant at 0.01 level [2-tailed test]). Moderate positive correlations were achieved between latitude (N) and the mean annual/seasonal precipitation (R ranges from 0.407 to 0.642, and all correlations are significant at 0.01 level [2-tailed test]). Spatial differences observed in erosivity, afforded a substantial source of information and maps for predicting erosion in Jordan. According to the present analysis, two parameters proved to be useful to predict rainfall erosivity on a national level. These parameters are the average annual precipitation, and latitude.

Real Time Monitoring of Extreme Rainfall Events with Simple X-Band Mini Weather Radar

Real time rainfall events monitoring is very important for a large number of reasons: Civil Protection, hydrogeological risk management, hydroelectric power purposes, road and traffic regulation, and tourism. Efficient monitoring operations need continuous, high-resolution and large-coverage data. To monitor and observe extreme rainfall events, often much localized over small basins of interest, and that could frequently causing flash floods, an unrealistic extremely dense rain gauge network should be needed. On the other hand, common large C-band or S-band long range radars do not provide the necessary spatial and temporal resolution. Simple short-range X-band mini weather radar can be a valid compromise solution. The present work shows how a single polarization, non-Doppler and non-coherent, simple and low cost X-band radar allowed monitoring three very intense rainfall events occurred near Turin during July 2014. The events, which caused damages and floods, are detected and monitored in real time with a sample rate of 1 minute and a radial spatial resolution of 60 m, thus allowing to describe the intensity of the precipitation on each small portion of territory. This information could be very useful if used by authorities in charge of Civil Protection in order to avoid inconvenience to people and to monitor dangerous situations.