A term structure model bearing features of stochastic volatility and stochastic mean drift with jump （SVJ-SD model for short） is built in the paper to describe the stochastic behavior of interest rates.Based on samp...A term structure model bearing features of stochastic volatility and stochastic mean drift with jump （SVJ-SD model for short） is built in the paper to describe the stochastic behavior of interest rates.Based on sample data of an interest rate of national bond repurchase,maximum likelihood （ML）,linear Kalman filter and efficient method of moments （EMM） are used to estimate the model.While ML works well for simple models,it may lead to considerable deviation in parameter estimation when dynamic risks of interest rates are considered in them.Linear Kalman filter is a tractable and reasonably accurate technique for estimation cases where ML was not feasible.Moreover,when compared with the first two approaches,using EMM can obtain better parameter estimates for complex models with non-affine structures.展开更多
Different single-factor models are used to estimate the term structure of Hong Kong Inter-Bank Offered Rates （HIBOR）. These models use stochastic differential equations which effectively reflect market characteristi...Different single-factor models are used to estimate the term structure of Hong Kong Inter-Bank Offered Rates （HIBOR）. These models use stochastic differential equations which effectively reflect market characteristics of short- and long-term interest rates, such as capability of mean reversion and interest rate level fluctuation. For the period from 2005 to early 2007, the economy of Hong Kong had been relatively stable with pretty low volatilities in interest rate. However, starting from 2008 to beginning of 2012, the Hong Kong and the world economies had been steering from relatively stable to fluctuations, the 2008 financial tsunami initiated by the U,S. had been causing financial instability globally. With the U.S： government taking quantitative easing monetary policy, U.S. interest rates fluctuated and submerged rapidly. Volatility of HIBOR was extremely sensitive to fluctuation of U.S. interest rates, since Hong Kong dollar exchange rate has been pegged with U.S. dollar. In short, during the period of early 2008 to early 2012, volatility of short-term interest rate was extremely sensitive. Obviously, the term structure of interest rate for these two periods had made major shift, combining the two periods would lead to unfavorable econometric results.展开更多
Nelson-Siegel model （ NS model） and 2 extended NS models were compared by using daily interbank government bond data Based on the grouping of bonds according to the residual term to maturity, the empirical research ...Nelson-Siegel model （ NS model） and 2 extended NS models were compared by using daily interbank government bond data Based on the grouping of bonds according to the residual term to maturity, the empirical research proceeded with in-sample and outof-sample tests. The results show that the 3 models are almost equivalent in estimating interbank term structure of interest rates. Within the term to maturities between 0 and 7 years, the gap of the absolute errors of the 3 models between in-sample and out-of-sample is smRller than 0.2 Yuan, and the absolute values of the in-sample and out-of-sample errors are smaller than 0. 1 Yuan, so the estimation is credible. Within the term to maturities between 7 and 20 years, the gap of the absolute errors of the 3 models between in-sample and out-of-sample is larger than 0.4 Yuan, and the absolute values of the in-sample and out-of-sample errors are larger than 1.0 Yuan, so the estimation is incredible.展开更多
This paper examines the term structure of interest rate empirically, and discovers that jump-diffusion process is better than pure diffusion process when describing the stochastic behavior of interest rate, which incl...This paper examines the term structure of interest rate empirically, and discovers that jump-diffusion process is better than pure diffusion process when describing the stochastic behavior of interest rate, which including jump risk. Using two-stage method to estimate the term structure of China government bond market. Fitting the initial term structure with B-spline approximation method, and then as input to jump-diffusion model parameter estimation. The result accounts for that term structure with jump can explain the actual conditions of China government bond market.展开更多
This paper focuses on how to measure the interest rate risk. The conventional measure methods of interest rate risk are reviewed and the duration concept is generalized to stochastic duration in the Markovian HJM fram...This paper focuses on how to measure the interest rate risk. The conventional measure methods of interest rate risk are reviewed and the duration concept is generalized to stochastic duration in the Markovian HJM framework. The generalized stochastic duration of the coupon bond is defined as the time to maturity of a zero coupon bond having the same instantaneous variance as the coupon bond. According to this definition., the authors first present the framework of Markovian HJM model, then deduce the measures of stochastic duration in some special cases which cover some extant interest term structure.展开更多
基金Sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(60979010)
文摘A term structure model bearing features of stochastic volatility and stochastic mean drift with jump （SVJ-SD model for short） is built in the paper to describe the stochastic behavior of interest rates.Based on sample data of an interest rate of national bond repurchase,maximum likelihood （ML）,linear Kalman filter and efficient method of moments （EMM） are used to estimate the model.While ML works well for simple models,it may lead to considerable deviation in parameter estimation when dynamic risks of interest rates are considered in them.Linear Kalman filter is a tractable and reasonably accurate technique for estimation cases where ML was not feasible.Moreover,when compared with the first two approaches,using EMM can obtain better parameter estimates for complex models with non-affine structures.
文摘Different single-factor models are used to estimate the term structure of Hong Kong Inter-Bank Offered Rates （HIBOR）. These models use stochastic differential equations which effectively reflect market characteristics of short- and long-term interest rates, such as capability of mean reversion and interest rate level fluctuation. For the period from 2005 to early 2007, the economy of Hong Kong had been relatively stable with pretty low volatilities in interest rate. However, starting from 2008 to beginning of 2012, the Hong Kong and the world economies had been steering from relatively stable to fluctuations, the 2008 financial tsunami initiated by the U,S. had been causing financial instability globally. With the U.S： government taking quantitative easing monetary policy, U.S. interest rates fluctuated and submerged rapidly. Volatility of HIBOR was extremely sensitive to fluctuation of U.S. interest rates, since Hong Kong dollar exchange rate has been pegged with U.S. dollar. In short, during the period of early 2008 to early 2012, volatility of short-term interest rate was extremely sensitive. Obviously, the term structure of interest rate for these two periods had made major shift, combining the two periods would lead to unfavorable econometric results.
文摘Nelson-Siegel model （ NS model） and 2 extended NS models were compared by using daily interbank government bond data Based on the grouping of bonds according to the residual term to maturity, the empirical research proceeded with in-sample and outof-sample tests. The results show that the 3 models are almost equivalent in estimating interbank term structure of interest rates. Within the term to maturities between 0 and 7 years, the gap of the absolute errors of the 3 models between in-sample and out-of-sample is smRller than 0.2 Yuan, and the absolute values of the in-sample and out-of-sample errors are smaller than 0. 1 Yuan, so the estimation is credible. Within the term to maturities between 7 and 20 years, the gap of the absolute errors of the 3 models between in-sample and out-of-sample is larger than 0.4 Yuan, and the absolute values of the in-sample and out-of-sample errors are larger than 1.0 Yuan, so the estimation is incredible.
文摘This paper examines the term structure of interest rate empirically, and discovers that jump-diffusion process is better than pure diffusion process when describing the stochastic behavior of interest rate, which including jump risk. Using two-stage method to estimate the term structure of China government bond market. Fitting the initial term structure with B-spline approximation method, and then as input to jump-diffusion model parameter estimation. The result accounts for that term structure with jump can explain the actual conditions of China government bond market.
文摘This paper focuses on how to measure the interest rate risk. The conventional measure methods of interest rate risk are reviewed and the duration concept is generalized to stochastic duration in the Markovian HJM framework. The generalized stochastic duration of the coupon bond is defined as the time to maturity of a zero coupon bond having the same instantaneous variance as the coupon bond. According to this definition., the authors first present the framework of Markovian HJM model, then deduce the measures of stochastic duration in some special cases which cover some extant interest term structure.
