Global Value Chain Participation and Firms'Responses to Exchange Rate Fluctuations

Greater participation in global value chains(GVCs)has highlighted the impact of exchange rate shocks on international trade.This paper examines how such participation influences firms'responses to exchange rate movements,focusing on the relationship between firms'pricing and value-added in exports.This study,using detailed Chinese firm-level data,demonstrates that firms with a high degree of GVC participation reacted to currency appreciation by lowering their export prices more substantially and reducing their export volumes less.This is mainly attributable to the"cost-hedging effect"within the marginal cost channel and the"pricing inhibition effect"within the markup channel.By categorizing export firms by trade models and product types,this study further demonstrates that processing trade firms at the low end of the value chain and those with low product differentiation were more inclined to absorb exchange rate shocks.This study adds to the existing theoretical framework and provides strong evidence for China in deepening GVC integration and supporting the development of high-quality export firms.

Exchange Rate Volatility： Effect on Turkish Tourism Incomes

The Turkish economy has been facing account deficit problems in recent years and tourism revenues play an important role in financing this deficit. Tourism revenues are affected by exchange rate volatility and the effects of exchange rate volatility on tourism revenues need to be researched. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of exchange rate volatility on tourism revenues. These effects were analyzed by using multivariate co-integration model and monthly data from January 2003 to December 2011. Findings suggest that exchange rate volatility has a negative effect on tourism revenues. Additionally, a weak relationship was detected in the long term between exchange rate and tourism revenues.

Reproducibility of Heart Rate Recovery in Individuals with Low Heart Rate Recovery Response

Objective: To examine the reproducibility of HRR in healthy individuals with slow HRR response undergoing routine annual checkups. Method: HRR data (>18 b/min;Group 1 and 18 b/min;Group 2) were analyzed using a fixed-effects regression model adjusted for age and gender, including random effects group-specific slopes on age. Results: One hundred and thirteen individuals (56.5 ± 9.2 y), underwent 573 cumulative ESTs with an average of 5.1 ± 1.6 tests per individual during a 21-year retrospective follow-up. No differences were found in anthropometric measurements and blood variables. All individuals achieved 94% ± 7.7% of age-predicted HR max at peak EST. Group 2 demonstrated 38% of inconsistent HRR. Regression analysis demonstrated a decrease of 0.5 b/min, on average across individuals, in HRR per each extra year of age. The random effects showed an inter-subject SD level of 9.91 b/min and an SD on the age slope of 0.40 b/min/year. Conclusion: HRR showed low reproducibility in nearly 40% of tests, which was not reflected by the variation of HR nor in the slope of age during a 21-year retrospective follow-up.

Nonequilibrium Statistical Modeling of Fatigue Crack Growth Behaviour

In order to study the influence of microstructural texture on the growth of short fatigue cracks in metals, the nonequilibrium statistical theory of fatigue fracture correlating a microscopic mechanism with the macroscopic properties is modified to take into consideration the microstructural features of a material, thereby allowing a rationalisation of the experimental data of short fatigue crack growth and long fatigue crack growth. The nonequilibrium statistical theory thus developed relates the growth of cracks with a dislocation mechanism to simulate short fatigue crack growth with the long fatigue crack growth behaviour and predicts the fatigue crack growth rates throughout the fatigue lifetime. The results is finally compared with that of other fatigue theories.

Dynamic characteristics of bubbling fluidization through recurrence rate analysis of pressure fluctuations

Pressure fluctuations signals of a lab-scale fiuidized bed （15 cm inner diameter and 2 m height） at different superficial gas velocities were measured. Recurrence plot （RP） and recurrence rate （RR）, and the simplest variable of recurrence quantification analysis （RQA） were used to analyze the pressure signals. Different patterns observed in RP reflect different dynamic behavior of the system under study. It was also found that the variance of RR （a2R） Could reveal the peak dominant frequencies （PDF） of different dynamic systems： completely periodic, completely stochastic, Lorenz system, and fluidized bed. The results were compared with power spectral density. Additionally, the diagram of σ^2RR provides a new technique for prediction of transition velocity from bubbling to turbulent fluidization regime.

On China’s Exchange Rate Flexibility and Stability: The More Flexible against the U.S. Dollar, the More Stable in Effective Terms

The Chinese authorities have often emphasized the importance of maintaining the renminbi＇s stable exchange rate without stating explicitly how this stability should be measured. This paper argues that the relevant concept for this stability should be in terms of the rnminbi＇s effective exchange rate, rather than its rate against any particular currency, such as the U. S. dollar. Under the current circumstances where key currencies＇ exchange rates fluctuate freely, if the authorities wish to maintain the stability of the renmnibi＇s effective exchange rate, they would want to let the renminbi＇s exchange rate fluctuate much more against the U. S. dollar than in the past because such fluctuations would greatly reduce the magnitude of the renminbi＇s fluctuations against other key currencies and thus its effective exchange rate. This point has been demonstrated by illustrative figures and by comparing the renminbi＇s hypothetical, greater exchange rate fluctuations with its actual fluctuations.