Beyond statistical significance:Embracing minimal clinically important difference for better patient care

The minimal clinically important difference(MCID)represents a pivotal metric in bridging the gap between statistical significance and clinical relevance,addressing the direct impact of medical interventions from the patient's perspective.This comprehensive review analyzes the evolution,applications,and challenges of MCID across medical specialties,emphasizing its necessity in ensuring that clinical outcomes not only demonstrate statistical significance but also offer genuine clinical utility that aligns with patient expectations and needs.We discuss the evolution of MCID since its inception in the 1980s,its current applications across various medical specialties,and the methodologies used in its calculation,highlighting both anchor-based and distribution-based approaches.Furthermore,the paper delves into the challenges associated with the application of MCID,such as methodological variability and the interpretation difficulties that arise in clinical settings.Recommendations for the future include standardizing MCID calculation methods,enhancing patient involvement in setting MCID thresholds,and extending research to incorporate diverse global perspectives.These steps are critical to refining the role of MCID in patient-centered healthcare,addressing existing gaps in methodology and interpretation,and ensuring that medical interventions lead to significant,patient-perceived improvements.

Dengue outbreaks in Taiwan, 1998-2017: Importation, serotype and temporal pattern

Objective: To ascertain the role of imported cases and serotypes on dengue outbreaks in Taiwan which have been sporadic yet highly volatile during the past two decades, exhibiting record-breaking magnitude in recent years. Methods: Confirmed case and serotype data from Taiwan Centers for Disease Control during 1998-2017 were fully examined, with fitting of weekly and daily case data of each city/county to a mathematical model to pinpoint the waves of cases and their locations. Moreover, we quantify the timing of turning point and transmission potential of each wave and determine its circulating serotype, to ascertain any pattern or connection between the variations in circulating serotypes and the magnitude/transmissibility of outbreak. Results: While the number of imported case increased steadily during past two decades, the yearly number of indigenous cases fluctuated wildly. Moreover, while yearly percentages of serotypes for imported cases remains steady, that of indigenous cases does not exhibit any clear pattern. There was at least one wave of reported cases somewhere in Taiwan every year from 1998 to 2015, except in 2016-2017. The effective reproduction number R for all waves in all locations ranged from 1.14 to 2.87, with the exception of two Tainan waves, in 2010(3.95) and 2015(6.84). Four major outbreaks of over 2000 cases reveal circulation of one dominant serotype. Conclusions: Correlation between imported cases and indigenous outbreak prove to be difficult to ascertain, even with the availability of serotype data. However, although there had been occasional co-circulation of serotypes in one location, and for some years with different serotypes circulating in different locations, all major outbreaks of over 2 000 cases during the past two decades are due to circulation of mainly a single serotype, perhaps indicating greater transmission potential with one dominating serotype.

2022 Multiple-country Monkeypox Outbreak and Its Importation Risk into China:An Assessment Based on the Risk Matrix Method

Objective To analyze the 2022 multiple-country monkeypox outbreak and assess its importation risk into China.Methods Data was from United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.We described the global epidemic and calculated concentration index to measure economic-related inequality.Importation risk into China was evaluated and ranked by using risk matrix method and Borda count method,respectively.Results As of July 29,2022,of 79 countries or territories,39(49.37%,39/79),17(21.52%,17/79),6(7.59%,6/79),12(15.19%,12/79),and 5(6.33%,5/79)country or territories identified cases<10,10-,51-,101-,and>1,000.There were economic-related health disparities exist in the distribution of cases(the concentration index=0.42,P=0.027),and the inequality disadvantageous to the rich(pro-poor).There were 12(15.38%,12/78),15(19.23%,15/78),6(7.69%,6/78),and 45(57.69%,45/78)countries or territories with extremely high,high,moderate,and low importation risk.United States and France ranked first with the highest Borda points of 156,and counts of zero.Conclusion Of 78 countries or territories,the key attention need be paid to the United States and France,relatively.As the epidemic progresses,preparing prevention and control measures to further reduce importation risk was crucial.

A Quantum Key Re-Transmission Mechanism for QKD-Based Optical Networks

Due to the vulnerability of fibers in optical networks, physical- layer attacks targeting photon splitting, such as eavesdrop- ping, can potentially lead to large information and revenue loss. To enhance the existing security approaches of optical networks, a new promising technology, quantum key distribu- tion （QKD）, can securely encrypt services in optical networks, which has been a hotspot of research in recent years for its characteristic that can let clients know whether infomlation transmission has been eavesdropped or not. In this paper, we apply QKD to provide secret keys for optical networks and then introduce the architecture of QKD based optical net- work. As for the secret keys generated by QKD in optical net- works, we propose a re-transmission mechanism by analyzing the security risks in QKD-based optical networks. Numerical results indicate that the proposed re-transmission mechanism can provide strong protection degree with enhanced attack protection. Finally, we illustrated some future challenges in QKD-based optical networks.

Univariate Time-Series Analysis of Second-Hand Car Importation in Zambia

Zambia largely depends on the international second-hand car (SHC) market for their motor vehicle supply. The importation of Second hand Cars in Zambia presents a time series problem. The data used in this paper is monthly data on SHC importation from 1st January, 2014 to 31st December, 2016. Data was analyzed using Exponential Smoothing (ES) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. The results showed that ARIMA (2, 1, 2) was the best fit for the SHC importation since its errors were smaller than those of the SES, DES and TES. The four error measures used were Root-mean-square error (RMSE), Mean absolute error (MAE), Mean percentage error (MPE) and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The forecasts were also produced using the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model for the next 18 months from January 2017. Although there is percentage increase of 90.6% from November 2015 to December 2016, the SHC importation generally is on the decrease in Zambia with percentage change of 59.5% from January 2014 to December 2016. The forecasts also show a gradual percentage decrease of 1.12% by June 2018. These results are more useful to policy and decision makers of Government departments such as Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) and Road Development Agency (RDA) in a bid to plan and execute their duties effectively.

Research on a Monte Carlo global variance reduction method based on an automatic importance sampling method

Global variance reduction is a bottleneck in Monte Carlo shielding calculations.The global variance reduction problem requires that the statistical error of the entire space is uniform.This study proposed a grid-AIS method for the global variance reduction problem based on the AIS method,which was implemented in the Monte Carlo program MCShield.The proposed method was validated using the VENUS-Ⅲ international benchmark problem and a self-shielding calculation example.The results from the VENUS-Ⅲ benchmark problem showed that the grid-AIS method achieved a significant reduction in the variance of the statistical errors of the MESH grids,decreasing from 1.08×10^(-2) to 3.84×10^(-3),representing a 64.00% reduction.This demonstrates that the grid-AIS method is effective in addressing global issues.The results of the selfshielding calculation demonstrate that the grid-AIS method produced accurate computational results.Moreover,the grid-AIS method exhibited a computational efficiency approximately one order of magnitude higher than that of the AIS method and approximately two orders of magnitude higher than that of the conventional Monte Carlo method.

Technology Importation and Domestic Technology Acquisition in China from the Perspective of Innovation

Foreign and domestic technologies play different roles in a country's innovation. In recent years, Chinese firms have spent less on importing foreign technology and more on acquiring domestic technology. Based on the panel data model, state space model(SSM) and the Bayesian vector autoregressive model, this paper finds that the purchase of domestic technology plays a critical role in the innovation of high-tech firms with an elasticity coefficient higher than that of technology importation before 2010. China's high-tech firms can effectively absorb purchased domestic technology, which also brings about an increase in their independent R&D input and contributes more to innovation output than imported technology. Performance of technology importation is lackluster but shows an improving trend. Technology importation is not correlated with innovation output and has a substitutive effect with independent R&D input. China is yet to enhance its absorption of imported technology. Elasticity coefficient of technology importation turned positive in 2007 and increased year by year. China should promote synergy between technology importation and domestic technology acquisition.

Global Epidemic of Ebola Virus Disease and the Importation Risk into China: An Assessment Based on the Risk Matrix Method

Objective To analyze the global epidemic status of the Ebola virus disease(EVD) and assess the importation risk into China.Methods Data from World Health Organization reports were used. We described the global epidemic status of EVD from 1976–2021, and assessed and ranked the importation risk of EVD from the diseaseoutbreaking countries into China using the risk matrix and Borda count methods, respectively.Results From 1976–2021, EVD mainly occurred in western and central Africa, with the highest cumulative number of cases(14,124 cases) in Sierra Leone, and the highest cumulative fatality rate(85%) in the Congo. Outbreaks of EVD have occurred in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Guinea since 2018. The importation risk into China varies across countries with outbreaks of disease.The Democratic Republic of the Congo had an extremely high risk(23 Borda points), followed by Guinea and Liberia. Countries with a moderate importation risk were Nigeria, Uganda, Congo, Sierra Leone,Mali, and Gabon, while countries with a low importation risk included Sudan, Senegal, and Co te d’Ivoire.Conclusion China is under the risk of EVD importation with the globalization and severe epidemic status of EVD. Key attention need to be paid to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, and Liberia. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent and prepare in advance for importation risk in China.

基于Null Importance和Stacking模型的知识追踪研究

为应对基于游戏的学习平台在知识追踪应用方面的不足,本研究利用Field Day Lab提供的教育游戏用户日志进行深入分析。采用方差法和Null Importance方法对数据集进行降维处理,并结合K折交叉验证与LightGBM算法,建立了一个高效的预测模型。此外,通过集成Logistic模型,构建起Stacking模型。研究表明,该模型在验证集上的Macro-F1值显著提升至0.699,同时也在测试集上显示出优异的泛化能力。本研究为教育游戏领域的知识追踪提供了创新方法,并为游戏开发与教育实践提供了宝贵参考,支持教育游戏的开发者为学生创造更有效的学习体验。

Identification of Important FPGA Modules Based on Complex Network

The globalization of hardware designs and supply chains,as well as the integration of third-party intellectual property(IP)cores,has led to an increased focus from malicious attackers on computing hardware.However,existing defense or detection approaches often require additional circuitry to perform security verification,and are thus constrained by time and resource limitations.Considering the scale of actual engineering tasks and tight project schedules,it is usually difficult to implement designs for all modules in field programmable gate array(FPGA)circuits.Some studies have pointed out that the failure of key modules tends to cause greater damage to the network.Therefore,under limited conditions,priority protection designs need to be made on key modules to improve protection efficiency.We have conducted research on FPGA designs including single FPGA systems and multi-FPGA systems,to identify key modules in FPGA systems.For the single FPGA designs,considering the topological structure,network characteristics,and directionality of FPGA designs,we propose a node importance evaluationmethod based on the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)method.Then,for the multi-FPGA designs,considering the influence of nodes in intra-layer and inter-layers,they are constructed into the interdependent network,and we propose a method based on connection strength to identify the important modules.Finally,we conduct empirical research using actual FPGA designs as examples.The results indicate that compared to other traditional indexes,node importance indexes proposed for different designs can better characterize the importance of nodes.

Development of endemicity and conservation importance indices for tropical forests and the floral diversity assessment of Mt.Natoo in Benguet,Philippines

The scientific community faces the challenge of measuring progress toward biodiversity targets and indices have been traditionally used.However,recent inventories in secondary tropical mountain forests using traditional biodiversity indices have yielded results that are indistinct with primary ones.This shows the need to develop complementary indices that goes beyond species count but integrates the distribution and conservation status of the species.This study developed endemicity and conservation importance index for tropical forest that incorporated the distribution and conservation status of the species.These indices were applied to Mt.Natoo,a remnant primary mossy forest in Buguias,Benguet,Philippines,that resulted to endemicity index of 81.07 and conservation importance index of 42.90.Comparing these with secondary forest sites with comparable Shannon-Wiener,Simpson,Evenness and Margalef’s indices,our endemicity and conservation indices clearly differentiates primary forest(our study site)with higher values from secondary forests with much lower values.Thus,we are proposing these indices for a direct but scientifically-informed identification of specific sites for conservation and protection in tropical forests.Additionally,our study documented a total of 168 vascular plant species(79 endemic and 12 locally threatened species)in Mt.Nato-o.Majority are of tropical elements for both generic and species levels with some temperate elements that could be attributed to the site's high elevation and semi-temperate climate.These are important baseline information for conservation plans and monitoring of tropical mossy forests.

An analysis of agarwood trade patterns,historical perspectives,and species identification challenges:repercussions for importing nations

Background:Agarwood,primarily derived from the Aquilaria and Gyrinops genera,holds significant economic importance.However,there is a lack of comprehensive investigations providing guidance to importing nations regarding cultivation quantities and expected yields of Agarwood from distinct species.This study aims to address this gap by exploring the historical context and trade evolution of Agarwood,highlighting its global importance,and the challenges associated with securing accurate species information.Method:On-site visits to Agarwood cultivation sites were conducted to gain a nuanced understanding of Aquilaria species and their cultivation requirements.Additionally,a thorough analysis of global export and import data for Agarwood products over the last decade was undertaken.Results:China Mainland emerged as the leading exporter of Agarwood,averaging an annual export value of USD 1 million.India’s substantial exports challenge the prevailing notion of limited Agarwood production within its borders.Hong Kong and Singapore are pivotal distribution hubs,while Hong Kong and Taipei feature prominently as import destinations.Our analysis uncovers anomalies in the representation of Agarwood producers from 2001 to 2008,suggesting potential misclassification of Aquilaria Agarwood as Gyrinops in global export information.These findings underscore the urgency of investigating classification and reporting practices in the Agarwood trade.Furthermore,A.filaria emerges as a notable source,while A.malaccensis is decline in prominence.Conclusion:This study provides crucial insights for policymakers,stakeholders,and industry players seeking to make informed decisions in the Agarwood trade landscape.The results highlight the need for accurate species identification,classification,and reporting practices to ensure sustainable cultivation and trade of Agarwood.

The Importance of Breathing Training in Folk Dance Teaching

The importance of breathing training in dance teaching is reflected in the two aspects of enhancing the quality of dance movements and sublimating the connotation of dance movements.For example,high-quality breathing can help performers complete the dance movements and improve the coordination of the movements;at the same time,the unique body rhythm formed by breathing can strengthen the visual effect of the performance and convey its spirit and soul to the audience.This requires folk dance teachers to carry out relevant training and teaching activities based on the categories and skills of dance breathing,such as changing students’ideological cognition,developing periodic breathing training courses,providing personalized guidance to students,and allowing students to adjust their learning and practice methods in the evaluation.

An Analysis of Innovative Contributions to the Important Discourse on the Development of New Quality Productivity

The discourse on developing high-quality productivity marks a significant theoretical innovation,which is conducive to the modernization and sinicization of Marxism.It refines our understanding of“new quality productivity,”defining it as an advanced form driven by innovation,embodying“high technology,efficiency,and quality,”with the aim of comprehensively enhancing productivity.It elucidates the necessity of cultivating such forces,asserting that they are crucial for achieving high-quality development,securing a leading position in global technology,and fulfilling the aspirations for a better life.Moreover,it outlines a new implementation route,emphasizing strategies such as fostering technological autonomy,nurturing emerging industries,integrating education and talent in technology,adopting a“build through challenges”approach,adjusting solutions locally,and providing categorized guidance,all of which are based on the ongoing comprehensive reforms.

Face tracking algorithm based on particle filter with mean shift importance sampling

The condensation tracking algorithm uses a prior transition probability as the proposal distribution, which does not make full use of the current observation. In order to overcome this shortcoming, a new face tracking algorithm based on particle filter with mean shift importance sampling is proposed. First, the coarse location of the face target is attained by the efficient mean shift tracker, and then the result is used to construct the proposal distribution for particle propagation. Because the particles obtained with this method can cluster around the true state region, particle efficiency is improved greatly. The experimental results show that the performance of the proposed algorithm is better than that of the standard condensation tracking algorithm.

大型过程建模的Import/Export解决方案

文章分析了大型复杂过程的建模需求，基于已研发的企事业过程建模系统EPMS，提出了将Import／Export技术用于大型过程建模的解决方案，通过过程模型的拆分和组装，从而支持过程模型的多人员、异地并行建模模式和过程重用。

Study on Determination Methods of Important Landscapes along the Mainstream of Yellow River

According to the response relationship between landscape and water resource,the selection principle of important landscapes was determined from the perspectives of nature and history in this study,and determination methods or steps of important landscapes along the mainstream of Yellow River were also established to select important landscapes that should be protected.

Analysis on the Epidemic Situation of Intercepted Alien Pests from Imported Hides in Hebei and the Countermeasures during 2013-2014

The situation of intercepted alien pests from imported hides in Hebei during 2013-2014 was systematically analyzed. The results showed that 163 batches of alien pests were intercepted, including 2 batches of quarantine weeds and they both were Italian cocklebur. According to the statistics of original countries, the intercepted hides from 21 countries all had alien pests, in which Australia was the largest number of batches and species of alien pests. The analysis results showed that there was severe risk in the imported hides carrying alien pests, thus to effectively prevent the invasion of alien pests to our country, several quarantine measures should be taken in the future, such as enhancing the quarantine inspection in ports, and promoting the personnel ability of interception and species identification of alien pests.

习近平关于新质生产力重要论述的理论体系和实践指向研究

习近平总书记关于新质生产力重要论述深刻阐明了新质生产力的基本内涵、本质特征、鲜明标志、核心要素、形成规律以及实现路径等重大理论和实践问题,是具有重大原创性、标识性、系统性、实践性的理论创新成果,是习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的重要组成部分。习近平总书记关于新质生产力重要论述是在推进中国式现代化进程中形成的新的生产力理论,是指导我国经济社会高质量发展的学理化、体系化的理论体系,是具有深邃而丰富辩证法则的实践指向。

守正创新 勇担时代使命——中山大学学报自然科学版创刊70周年(1955—2024)

本文介绍《中山大学学报(自然科学版中英文)》的创刊与源流,分为创刊初期(1955—1966)、首批复刊(1973—1978)、改革开放后(1979—2012)和迈进新时代(2013—2023)四个时间段回顾该刊70年的办刊历程,着重介绍了在各个时期为该刊的发展壮大作出了重要贡献的中山大学学者及其发表的成果,展现中山大学与该刊在推动国家科学技术发展进步方面所作出的贡献。新时代以来,自然科学版致力于内涵式高质量发展取得了成效。该刊以建设世界一流科技期刊为目标,采取了策划组织大型专题专辑、变更期刊文种为中英文、实施稿件质量提升计划、不断完善数字化出版等重要办刊举措,大力推进国际化高水平科技期刊建设。