Cyclical fluctuations of real estate investment across regions in urban China

Taking the concrete conditions of each region into full consideration, the Chinese real estate market is divided into an eastern market, a central market and a western market. For each market, the autoregressive integrated moving average （ARMA） model is established and spectral analysis is carded out to better understand the changes in the real estate markets in each region. The results show the investment levels and several kinds of cycles within each market. The level of real estate investment （LREI）in the eastern region is the higiaest, and the short cycle of investment is about 4 to 5 years; the LREI in the central region is in the middle, and the short cycle of investment is about 2 to 3 years; the LREI in the western region has been rapidly increasing in recent years, and the short cycle of investment is about 4 to 5 years. Real estate investment in each area has reached a peak and completed a middle-cycle movement after a period of sustained recession and an upsurge process, which has taken about 9 to 10 years.

Relationships of the Monetary Policy, Stock Market and Real Investment in China Based on Markov-Switching Model

This paper studies the relationships of the monetary policy, stock market and real investment in China based on Markov-Switching-Vector Error Correction Model. It shows that there is a cointegration relationship among the three ones. We disclose the riddle that the stock market is in recession, but the growth rate of economy is very high in recent years. We also find that Chinese economy operated stably most of the time during the past 8 years. But if the economy is difficult to continue its high growth, it is more likely to appear ＂hard landing＂ than ＂soft landing＂. The impulse response analysis indicates the asymmetry between the ＂too cold＂ economy regime and the ＂too hot＂ regime. And the economy will oscillate during the subsequent time when it is shocked under the ＂too hot＂ regime.

A group consensus model for evaluating real estate investment alternatives

Background:Individual decision-making largely influences the effectiveness of decisions and benefits of investments.Methods:In this article,a consensus model for group decision-making(GDM),based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),is developed to gather group ideas and analyze the real estate investment environment under multi-criteria problems.Twelve evaluation procedures of the developed model,which increase the convergence of the opinions of multiple experts,are proposed.Results:An empirical case about the real estate investment environment is applied to certify the feasibility of this developed model.Conclusions:the evaluation procedures have been fully observed with several rounds of discussions,and have manifested the experiences of experts.Besides,the evaluation results are in accordance with real-world situations,which demonstrates that our developed model is a feasible analysis tool for real estate investors to obtain better profits and lower risk.

Investment in deepwater oil and gas exploration projects:a multi-factor analysis with a real options model

Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.

Overheated Investment in Real Estate Inhibits Innovation:Verification and Analysis in China's Case

Whether rapid real estate investment growth inhibits China's innovation is a critical question for China's economic sustainability. Based on China's provincial panel data and using land supply as an instrumental variable for real estate investment growth, we arrived at the following findings after effectively controlling endogenous factors that could lead to estimation errors. First of all, the faster real estate investment grows in a province, the lower the growth rates of innovation and R&D spending and invention patent authorizations will be in the province, an indication that real estate directly inhibits innovation in China. Such inhibition is particularly pronounced in the industrial sectors. Secondly, in the context of rampant real estate investment, the biased loan maturity structure of China's financial system in favor of the real estate industry further inhibits innovation. This paper has verified the existence of the direct effect of real estate investment growth on regional innovation and its indirect effect on regional innovation through the biased long maturity structure of the financial system. The empirical findings of this paper provide practical policy implications for China to strike a balance between real estate development and an innovation-driven development strategy.

Real Option and Strategic Decision Making of Duopoly

Other than traditional valuation methods, the real option approach captures the flexibility inherent in investment decisions to make the optimal decision of a finn in isolation from its competitors. In reality, however, the actions or decisions of competing fn-ms （practical or potential） often affect each other＇s investment opportunity. The value of the project for the firms is assumed to follow a Geometric Brownian motion, and the model combines game theory and the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty. This paper characterizes the resulting Nash equilibrium under different assumptions on the information that the firms have each other＇s valuation for the project.

The real estate time-stamping and registration system based on Ethereum blockchain

In recent years,there has been a growing interest in real estate investments that utilize blockchain technology.Traditional real estate investments usually involve third-party intermediaries for verifying and recording informal real estate transactions.This paper proposes a blockchain-based real estate investment model and presents a detailed description of the real estate register authentication aspect of the model.The model uses blockchain technology to create tamper-evident records of real estate transactions and provide secure authentication and verification for informal real estate transactions.Meanwhile,each real estate transaction is recorded in a block,and all transaction records are kept on the blockchain.This means that inventors can access these transaction records and verify their authenticity and validity.The system can also use smart contracts to automate the process of real estate transactions,which further improves transaction efficiency and reduces costs.Furthermore,the model’s timestamp and authentication mechanism can eliminate third-party intermediaries and ensure the authenticity and validity of real estate transactions through distributed ledgers and verification mechanisms.Overall,blockchain-based real estate systems offer advantages of security,transparency,efficiency,and cost reduction.With ongoing blockchain advancements,these systems are expected to play a crucial role in future real estate investment transactions.

Home purchase restriction, real estate investment, and corporate innovation

It is ubiquitous for non-real estate firms to condua real estate business in China.Home purchase restriction(HPR)affeas corporate innovation by dampening the real estate investment of non-real estate firms.The extant literature has examined the impaa of HPR on corporate innovation,but it has not focused on the expeaation of HPR and the endogeneity problem.Employing a dataset of 1,830 listed non-real estate firms over the period 2009-2016,this research explores the expectation of HPR on corporate innovation based on the motivations for real estate investment in non-real estate firms.We demonstrate that HPR facilitates the enhancement of research and development(R&D)investment in non-real estate listed firms by hindering real estate investment,particularly for non-high-tech firms.The effects of HPR arrive at the crest in the third implementation year and remain steady thereafter.The real estate investment of non-real estate firms rebounds and the R&D investment declines along with the cancellation of HPR.Tackling the selection bias and endogeneity problems,the baseline results are also robust.Hence,HPR should serve as a long-term vehicle to improving corporate innovation,in addition to preventing housing speculation.