A Framework of LSTM Neural Network Model in Multi-Time Scale Real-Time Prediction of Ship Motions in Head Waves

Ship motions induced by waves have a significant impact on the efficiency and safety of offshore operations.Real-time prediction of ship motions in the next few seconds plays a crucial role in performing sensitive activities.However,the obvious memory effect of ship motion time series brings certain difficulty to rapid and accurate prediction.Therefore,a real-time framework based on the Long-Short Term Memory(LSTM)neural network model is proposed to predict ship motions in regular and irregular head waves.A 15000 TEU container ship model is employed to illustrate the proposed framework.The numerical implementation and the real-time ship motion prediction in irregular head waves corresponding to the different time scales are carried out based on the container ship model.The related experimental data were employed to verify the numerical simulation results.The results show that the proposed method is more robust than the classical extreme short-term prediction method based on potential flow theory in the prediction of nonlinear ship motions.

A real-time prediction method for tunnel boring machine cutter-head torque using bidirectional long short-term memory networks optimized by multi-algorithm

Based on data from the Jilin Water Diversion Tunnels from the Songhua River(China),an improved and real-time prediction method optimized by multi-algorithm for tunnel boring machine(TBM)cutter-head torque is presented.Firstly,a function excluding invalid and abnormal data is established to distinguish TBM operating state,and a feature selection method based on the SelectKBest algorithm is proposed.Accordingly,ten features that are most closely related to the cutter-head torque are selected as input variables,which,in descending order of influence,include the sum of motor torque,cutter-head power,sum of motor power,sum of motor current,advance rate,cutter-head pressure,total thrust force,penetration rate,cutter-head rotational velocity,and field penetration index.Secondly,a real-time cutterhead torque prediction model’s structure is developed,based on the bidirectional long short-term memory(BLSTM)network integrating the dropout algorithm to prevent overfitting.Then,an algorithm to optimize hyperparameters of model based on Bayesian and cross-validation is proposed.Early stopping and checkpoint algorithms are integrated to optimize the training process.Finally,a BLSTMbased real-time cutter-head torque prediction model is developed,which fully utilizes the previous time-series tunneling information.The mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of the model in the verification section is 7.3%,implying that the presented model is suitable for real-time cutter-head torque prediction.Furthermore,an incremental learning method based on the above base model is introduced to improve the adaptability of the model during the TBM tunneling.Comparison of the prediction performance between the base and incremental learning models in the same tunneling section shows that:(1)the MAPE of the predicted results of the BLSTM-based real-time cutter-head torque prediction model remains below 10%,and both the coefficient of determination(R^(2))and correlation coefficient(r)between measured and predicted values exceed 0.95;and(2)the incremental learning method is suitable for realtime cutter-head torque prediction and can effectively improve the prediction accuracy and generalization capacity of the model during the excavation process.

Real-time prediction of mechanical behaviors of underwater shield tunnel structure using machine learning method based on structural health monitoring data

Predicting the mechanical behaviors of structure and perceiving the anomalies in advance are essential to ensuring the safe operation of infrastructures in the long run.In addition to the incomplete consideration of influencing factors,the prediction time scale of existing studies is rough.Therefore,this study focuses on the development of a real-time prediction model by coupling the spatio-temporal correlation with external load through autoencoder network(ATENet)based on structural health monitoring(SHM)data.An autoencoder mechanism is performed to acquire the high-level representation of raw monitoring data at different spatial positions,and the recurrent neural network is applied to understanding the temporal correlation from the time series.Then,the obtained temporal-spatial information is coupled with dynamic loads through a fully connected layer to predict structural performance in next 12 h.As a case study,the proposed model is formulated on the SHM data collected from a representative underwater shield tunnel.The robustness study is carried out to verify the reliability and the prediction capability of the proposed model.Finally,the ATENet model is compared with some typical models,and the results indicate that it has the best performance.ATENet model is of great value to predict the realtime evolution trend of tunnel structure.

Real-time 3-D space numerical shake prediction for earthquake early warning

In earthquake early warning systems, real-time shake prediction through wave propagation simulation is a promising approach. Compared with traditional methods, it does not suffer from the inaccurate estimation of source parameters. For computation efficiency, wave direction is assumed to propagate on the 2-D surface of the earth in these methods. In fact, since the seismic wave propagates in the 3-D sphere of the earth, the 2-D space modeling of wave direction results in inaccurate wave estimation. In this paper, we propose a 3-D space numerical shake pre- diction method, which simulates the wave propagation in 3-D space using radiative transfer theory, and incorporate data assimilation technique to estimate the distribution of wave energy. 2011 Tohoku earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed model. 2-D space model and 3-D space model are compared in this article, and the prediction results show that numerical shake prediction based on 3-D space model can estimate the real-time ground motion precisely, and overprediction is alleviated when using 3-D space model.

Characteristics and Prediction of Traffic Accident Casualties In Sudan Using Statistical Modeling and Artificial Neural Networks

Road traffic accident(RTA)casualties in Sudan are among the major causes of death in the age group of 21 to 60.with 61%fatalities.The fatality rate of 35 per 10,000 vehicles is among the highest in the world despite the low car ownership of 1 vehicle to 100 persons.This paper presents accident characteristics and considers road safety management.Crucial issues discussed in the paper include prediction and safety measures.The paper applies Artificial Neural Network(ANN)and regression techniques to comparatively predict traffic accident casualties.Both approaches modeled accident casualties using historical data on population,number of registered cars and other related factors from 1991 to 2009.Comparison of predictions with recorded data was very favorable.Predictions during 2010-2014 were determined using projected values for the same predictor variables.ANN forecasts provided the best fit for the data with a maximum difference of 1.84%between predictions and observed data.The study demonstrated that ANNs provide a powerful tool for analysis and prediction of accident casualties.The major causes of accidents were attributed to driver behaviour,vehicle fleet and conditions,road network defects,speed-limit violation,negligence of seat-belt usage and lack of traffic-law enforcement.

Real-Time Prediction Algorithm for Intelligent Edge Networks with Federated Learning-Based Modeling

Intelligent healthcare networks represent a significant component in digital applications,where the requirements hold within quality-of-service(QoS)reliability and safeguarding privacy.This paper addresses these requirements through the integration of enabler paradigms,including federated learning(FL),cloud/edge computing,softwaredefined/virtualized networking infrastructure,and converged prediction algorithms.The study focuses on achieving reliability and efficiency in real-time prediction models,which depend on the interaction flows and network topology.In response to these challenges,we introduce a modified version of federated logistic regression(FLR)that takes into account convergence latencies and the accuracy of the final FL model within healthcare networks.To establish the FLR framework for mission-critical healthcare applications,we provide a comprehensive workflow in this paper,introducing framework setup,iterative round communications,and model evaluation/deployment.Our optimization process delves into the formulation of loss functions and gradients within the domain of federated optimization,which concludes with the generation of service experience batches for model deployment.To assess the practicality of our approach,we conducted experiments using a hypertension prediction model with data sourced from the 2019 annual dataset(Version 2.0.1)of the Korea Medical Panel Survey.Performance metrics,including end-to-end execution delays,model drop/delivery ratios,and final model accuracies,are captured and compared between the proposed FLR framework and other baseline schemes.Our study offers an FLR framework setup for the enhancement of real-time prediction modeling within intelligent healthcare networks,addressing the critical demands of QoS reliability and privacy preservation.

Accident and hazard prediction models for highway–rail grade crossings:a state-of-the-practice review for the USA

Highway–rail grade crossings(HRGCs)are one of the most dangerous segments of the transportation network.Every year numerous accidents are recorded at HRGCs between highway users and trains,between highway users and traffic control devices,and solely between highway users.These accidents cause fatalities,severe injuries,property damage,and release of hazardous materials.Researchers and state Departments of Transportation(DOTs)have addressed safety concerns at HRGCs in the USA by investigating the factors that may cause accidents at HRGCs and developed certain accident and hazard prediction models to forecast the occurrence of accidents and crossing vulnerability.The accident and hazard prediction models are used to identify the most hazardous HRGCs that require safety improvements.This study provides an extensive review of the state-of-the-practice to identify the existing accident and hazard prediction formulae that have been used over the years by different state DOTs.Furthermore,this study analyzes the common factors that have been considered in the existing accident and hazard prediction formulae.The reported performance and implementation challenges of the identified accident and hazard prediction formulae are discussed in this study as well.Based on the review results,the US DOT Accident Prediction Formula was found to be the most commonly used formula due to its accuracy in predicting the number of accidents at HRGCs.However,certain states still prefer customized models due to some practical considerations.Data availability and data accuracy were identified as some of the key model implementation challenges in many states across the country.

Efficient Harmonic Analysis Technique for Prediction of IGS Real-Time Satellite Clock Corrections

Real-time satellite orbit and clock corrections obtained from the broadcast ephemerides can be improved using IGS real-time service (RTS) products. Recent research showed that applying such corrections for broadcast ephemerides can significantly improve the RMS of the estimated coordinates. However, unintentional streaming interruption may happen for many reasons such as software or hardware failure. Streaming interruption, if happened, will cause sudden degradation of the obtained solution if only the broadcast ephemerides are used. A better solution can be obtained in real-time if the predicted part of the ultra-rapid products is used. In this paper, Harmonic analysis technique is used to predict the IGS RTS corrections using historical broadcasted data. It is shown that using the predicted clock corrections improves the RMS of the estimated coordinates by about 72%, 58%, and 72% in latitude, longitude, and height directions, respectively and reduces the 2D and 3D errors by about 80% compared with the predicted part of the IGS ultra-rapid clock corrections.

Real-time numerical shake prediction and updating for earthquake early warning

Ground motion prediction is important for earthquake early warning systems, because the region＇s peak ground motion indicates the potential disaster. In order to predict the peak ground motion quickly and pre- cisely with limited station wave records, we propose a real- time numerical shake prediction and updating method. Our method first predicts the ground motion based on the ground motion prediction equation after P waves detection of several stations, denoted as the initial prediction. In order to correct the prediction error of the initial prediction, an updating scheme based on real-time simulation of wave propagation is designed. Data assimilation technique is incorporated to predict the distribution of seismic wave energy precisely. Radiative transfer theory and Monte Carlo simulation are used for modeling wave propagation in 2-D space, and the peak ground motion is calculated as quickly as possible. Our method has potential to predict shakemap, making the potential disaster be predicted before the real disaster happens. 2008 Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed method.

A New Accident Prediction Model for Highway-Rail Grade Crossings Using the USDOT Formula Variables

This paper presents the ZINDOT model,a methodology utilizing a zero-inflated negative binomial model with the variables used in the United States Department of Transportation(USDOT)accident prediction formula,to determine the expected accident count at a highway-rail grade crossing.The model developed contains separate formulas to estimate the crash prediction value depending on the warning device type installed at the crossing:crossings with gates,crossings with flashing lights and no gates,and crossings with crossbucks.The proposed methodology also accounts for the observed accident count at a crossing using the Empirical Bayes method.The ZINDOT model estimates were compared to the USDOT model estimates to rank the crossings based on the expected accident frequency.It is observed that the new model can identify crossings with a greater number of accidents with Gates and Flashing Lights and Crossbucks in both Illinois(data which were used to develop the model)and Texas(data which were used to validate the model).A practitioner already using the USDOT formulae to estimate expected accident count at a crossing could easily use the ZINDOT model as it employs the same variables used in the USDOT formula.This methodology could be used to rank highway-rail grade crossings for resource allocation and safety improvement.

Application of predictive control scheduling method to real-time periodic control tasks overrun

Based on the abort strategy of fixed periods, a novel predictive control scheduling methodology was proposed to efficiently solve overrun problems. By applying the latest control value in the prediction sequences to the control objective, the new strategy was expected to optimize the control system for better performance and yet guarantee the schedulability of all tasks under overrun. The schedulability of the real-time systems with p-period overruns was analyzed, and the corresponding stability criteria was given as well. The simulation results show that the new approach can improve the performance of control system compared to that of conventional abort strategy, it can reduce the overshoot and adjust time as well as ensure the schedulability and stability.

A Real-time Updated Model Predictive Control Strategy for Batch Processes Based on State Estimation

Nonlinear model predictive control(NMPC) is an appealing control technique for improving the performance of batch processes, but its implementation in industry is not always possible due to its heavy on-line computation. To facilitate the implementation of NMPC in batch processes, we propose a real-time updated model predictive control method based on state estimation. The method includes two strategies: a multiple model building strategy and a real-time model updated strategy. The multiple model building strategy is to produce a series of sim-plified models to reduce the on-line computational complexity of NMPC. The real-time model updated strategy is to update the simplified models to keep the accuracy of the models describing dynamic process behavior. The me-thod is validated with a typical batch reactor. Simulation studies show that the new method is efficient and robust with respect to model mismatch and changes in process parameters.

Imprecise Computation Based Real-time Fault Tolerant Implementation for Model Predictive Control

Model predictive control (MPC) could not be deployed in real-time control systems for its computation time is not well defined. A real-time fault tolerant implementation algorithm based on imprecise computation is proposed for MPC, according to the solving process of quadratic programming (QP) problem. In this algorithm, system stability is guaranteed even when computation resource is not enough to finish optimization completely. By this kind of graceful degradation, the behavior of real-time control systems is still predictable and determinate. The algorithm is demonstrated by experiments on servomotor, and the simulation results show its effectiveness.

SRDAAR－QNPP：a computer code system for the real－time dose assessment of an accident release for Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant

The paper presents a computer code system 'SRDAAR- QNPP' for the real-time dose as-sessment of an accident release for Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant. It includes three parts:thereal-time data acquisition system, assessment computer. and the assessment operating code system. InSRDAAR-QNPP, the wind field of the surface and the lower levels are determined hourly by using amass consistent three-dimension diasnosis model with the topographic following coordinate system.A Lagrangin Puff model under changing meteorological condition is adopted for atmosphericdispersion, the correction for dry and wet depositions. physical decay and partial plume penetrationof the top inversion and the deviation of plume axis caused by complex terrain have been taken in-to account. The calculation domain areas include three square grid areas with the sideline 10 km, 40krn and 160 km and a grid interval 0.5 km, 2.0 km, 8.0 km respectively. Three exposure pathwaysare taken into account:the external exposure from immersion cloud and passing puff, the internalexposure from inhalation and the external exposure from contaminated ground. This system is ableto provide the results of concentration and dose distributions within 10 minutes after the data havebeen inputed.

Probability Prediction Model for Landslide Occurrences in Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, China

Landslides are increasing since the 1980s in Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, China. This is due to the increase of the frequency and intensity of precipitation caused by complex geological structures, the presence of steep landforms, seasonal heavy rainfall, and the intensifcation of human activities. In this study, we propose a landslide prediction model based on the analysis of intraday rainfall(IR) and antecedent effective rainfall(AER). Primarily, the number of days and degressive index of the antecedent effective rainfall which affected landslide occurrences in the areas around Qin Mountains, Li Mountains and Loess Tableland was established. Secondly, the antecedent effective rainfall and intraday rainfall were calculated from weather data which were used to construct critical thresholds for the 10%, 50% and 90% probabilities for future landslide occurrences in Qin Mountain, Li Mountain and Loess Tableland. Finally, the regions corresponding to different warning levels were identified based on the relationship between precipitation and the threshold, that is; "A" region is safe, "B" region is on watch alert, "C" region is on warning alert and "D" region is on severe warning alert. Using this model, a warning program is proposed which can predict rainfall-induced landslides by means of real-time rain gauge data and real-time geo-hazard alert and disaster response programs. Sixteen rain gauges were installed in the Xi'an region by keeping in accordance with the regional geology and landslide risks. Based on the data from gauges, this model accurately achieves the objectives of conducting real-time monitoring as well as providing early warnings of landslides in the Xi'an region.

Real-Time Iterative Compensation Framework for Precision Mechatronic Motion Control Systems

With regard to precision/ultra-precision motion systems,it is important to achieve excellent tracking performance for various trajectory tracking tasks even under uncertain external disturbances.In this paper,to overcome the limitation of robustness to trajectory variations and external disturbances in offline feedforward compensation strategies such as iterative learning control(ILC),a novel real-time iterative compensation(RIC)control framework is proposed for precision motion systems without changing the inner closed-loop controller.Specifically,the RIC method can be divided into two parts,i.e.,accurate model prediction and real-time iterative compensation.An accurate prediction model considering lumped disturbances is firstly established to predict tracking errors at future sampling times.In light of predicted errors,a feedforward compensation term is developed to modify the following reference trajectory by real-time iterative calculation.Both the prediction and compen-sation processes are finished in a real-time motion control sampling period.The stability and convergence of the entire control system after real-time iterative compensation is analyzed for different conditions.Various simulation results consistently demonstrate that the proposed RIC framework possesses satisfactory dynamic regulation capability,which contributes to high tracking accuracy comparable to ILC or even better and strong robustness.

The development of a new real-time subsurface mooring

Subsurface mooring allows researchers to measure the ocean properties such as water temperature,salinity,and velocity at several depths of the water column for a long period.Traditional subsurface mooring can release data only after recovered,which constrains the usage of the subsurface and deep layer data in the ocean and climate predictions.Recently,we developed a new real-time subsurface mooring(RTSM).Velocity profiles over upper 1000 m depth and layered data from sensors up to 5000 m depth can be realtime transmitted to the small surface buoy through underwater acoustic communication and then to the office through Beidou or Iridium satellite.To verify and refine their design and data transmission process,we deployed more than 30 sets of RTSMs in the western Pacific to do a 1-year continuous run during 2016–2018.The continuous running period of RTSM in a 1-year cycle can reach more than 260 days on average,and more than 95%of observed data can be successfully transmitted back to the office.Compared to the widely-used inductive coupling communication,wireless acoustic communication has been shown more applicable to the underwater sensor network with large depth intervals and long transmission distance to the surface.

On-line real-time path planning of mobile robots in dynamic uncertain environment

A new path planning method for mobile robots in globally unknown environment with moving obstacles is pre- sented. With an autoregressive (AR) model to predict the future positions of moving obstacles, and the predicted position taken as the next position of moving obstacles, a motion path in dynamic uncertain environment is planned by means of an on-line real-time path planning technique based on polar coordinates in which the desirable direction angle is taken into consideration as an optimization index. The effectiveness, feasibility, high stability, perfect performance of obstacle avoidance, real-time and optimization capability are demonstrated by simulation examples.

A Novel Search Engine for Internet of Everything Based on Dynamic Prediction

In recent years, with the rapid development of sensing technology and deployment of various Internet of Everything devices, it becomes a crucial and practical challenge to enable real-time search queries for objects, data, and services in the Internet of Everything. Moreover, such efficient query processing techniques can provide strong facilitate the research on Internet of Everything security issues. By looking into the unique characteristics in the IoE application environment, such as high heterogeneity, high dynamics, and distributed, we develop a novel search engine model, and build a dynamic prediction model of the IoE sensor time series to meet the real-time requirements for the Internet of Everything search environment. We validated the accuracy and effectiveness of the dynamic prediction model using a public sensor dataset from Intel Lab.

Real-Time Multi-Class Infection Classification for Respiratory Diseases

Real-time disease prediction has emerged as the main focus of study in the field of computerized medicine.Intelligent disease identification framework can assist medical practitioners in diagnosing disease in a way that is reliable,consistent,and timely,successfully lowering mortality rates,particularly during endemics and pandemics.To prevent this pandemic’s rapid and widespread,it is vital to quickly identify,confine,and treat affected individuals.The need for auxiliary computer-aided diagnostic(CAD)systems has grown.Numerous recent studies have indicated that radiological pictures contained critical information regarding the COVID-19 virus.Utilizing advanced convolutional neural network(CNN)architectures in conjunction with radiological imaging makes it possible to provide rapid,accurate,and extremely useful susceptible classifications.This research work proposes a methodology for real-time detection of COVID-19 infections caused by the Corona Virus.The purpose of this study is to offer a two-way COVID-19(2WCD)diagnosis prediction deep learning system that is built on Transfer Learning Methodologies(TLM)and features customized fine-tuning on top of fully connected layered pre-trained CNN architectures.2WCD has applied modifications to pre-trained models for better performance.It is designed and implemented to improve the generalization ability of the classifier for binary and multi-class models.Along with the ability to differentiate COVID-19 and No-Patient in the binary class model and COVID-19,No-Patient,and Pneumonia in the multi-class model,our framework is augmented with a critical add-on for visually demonstrating infection in any tested radiological image by highlighting the affected region in the patient’s lung in a recognizable color pattern.The proposed system is shown to be extremely robust and reliable for real-time COVID-19 diagnostic prediction.It can also be used to forecast other lung-related disorders.As the system can assist medical practitioners in diagnosing the greatest number of patients in the shortestamount of time, radiologists can also be used or published online to assistany less-experienced individual in obtaining an accurate immediate screeningfor their radiological images.