A new production component method for natural gas development planning

Based on an analysis of the limitations of conventional production component methods for natural gas development planning,this study proposes a new one that uses life cycle models for the trend fitting and prediction of production.In this new method,the annual production of old and new wells is predicted by year first and then is summed up to yield the production for the planning period.It shows that the changes in the production of old wells in old blocks can be fitted and predicted using the vapor pressure model(VPM),with precision of 80%e95%,which is 6.6%e13.2%higher than that of other life cycle models.Furthermore,a new production prediction process and method for new wells have been established based on this life cycle model to predict the production of medium-to-shallow gas reservoirs in western Sichuan Basin,with predication error of production rate in 2021 and 2022 being 6%and 3%respectively.The new method can be used to guide the medium-and long-term planning or annual scheme preparation for gas development.It is also applicable to planning for large single gas blocks that require continuous infill drilling and adjustment to improve gas recovery.

Software development of modeling assistant for continuous suspension bridges with multi-pylon

Building a reasonable and accurate finite element model is the first and critical step for structural analysis of complicated bridge. In this article, modeling assistant for continuous suspension with multi-pylon is developed based on .Net platform, with VB.Net, C# language and OpenGL graphic technique. With parameterized modeling method, finite element model of this kind of bridge can be built quickly and accurately, and multi-type element modeling with uniform parameters is realized. With advanced graphic technique, three-dimensional model graph can be real-timely previewed for intuitive data check. With an example of practice project, the accuracy and feasibility of this modeling method and practicality of this software are verified.

FEM model for real-time guide wire simulation in vasculature

A model suitable for describing the mechanical response of thin elastic objects is proposed to simulate the deformation of guide wires in minimally invasive interventions. The main objective of this simulation is to provide doctors an opportunity to rehearse the surgery and select an optimal operation plan before the real surgery. In this model the guide wire is discretized with the multi-body representation and its elastic energy derivate from elastic theory is a polynomial function of the nodal displacements. The vascular structure is represented by a tetrahedron mesh extended from the triangular mesh of the artery, which can be extracted from the patient＇s CT image data. The model applies the energy decline process of the conjugate gradient method to the deformation simulation of the guide wire. Experimental results show that the polynomial relationship between elastic energy and nodal displacements tremendously simplifies the evaluation of the conjugate gradient method and significantly improves the model＇s efficiency. Compared with models depending on an explicit scheme for evaluation, the new model is not only non-conditionally stable but also more efficient. The model can be applied to the real-time simulation of guide wire in a vascular structure.

A synthetic differencein-differences model for the influence of CR Express on Chongqing's economy

Purpose-The China-Europe Railway Express(CR Express)in Chongqing has operated regularly and undergone large-scale development.Its impact on Chongqing's economic growth has become increasingly evident,necessitating further research in this field.Design/methodology/approach-This study employs the opening of CR Express as a quasi-natural experiment,designating Chongqing,which inaugurated the CR Express in 2011,as the treatment group.13 provinces and cities that had not yet opened the CR Express until 2017 were selected as the control group.Utilizing panel data from 14 provinces across China spanning from 2006 to 2017,the synthetic control method(SCM)is employed to synthetically construct Chongqing.To quantify the difference in economic development levels between Chongqing with the operation of the CR express and Chongqing without its operation.Key metrics such as gross domestic product(GDP),per capita GDP,total retail sales of consumer goods,import and export value and the proportions of the secondary and tertiary industries are employed to measure urban economic development capabilities.Chongqing is designated as the experimental group,and a double-difference model is constructed to regress the operation of the CR Express against economic development capabilities.Robustness tests are conducted to validate the analytical results.Findings-The results indicate that,compared to provinces without the operation of the CR Express,the initiation of the CR Express in Chongqing significantly enhances the economic development level of the city.The opening of the CR Express exhibits a pronounced positive impact on Chongqing's economic development,and these findings remain robust and effective even after parallel trend tests and placebo tests.Originalitylvalue-The study represents an expansion of the theoretical framework.In contrast to previous studies that relied on a single indicator such as GDP,this study selects six indicators from the dimensions of economy,trade and industry to measure regional economic development capabilities.Furthermore,employing the grey relational analysis method,the study screens these indicators,thereby providing a theoretical basis for the selection of indicators for measuring regional economic development capabilities.

Review on Quantitative Research Methods of Regional Sustainable Development in China

Since the 1990s, with the in-depth study and understanding of sustainable development, quantitative study of regional sustainable development (RSD) was increasingly hot in China. Based on quantitative study of RSD from Core Periodical in China National Knowledge Infrastructure (1992–2008), statistical analysis on the annual distribution, periodicals distribution and changes of the distribution were made. And from perspectives of social–economic, ecological, systematic and emerging methods, the course, problems and trends of the quantitative study methods on RSD were examined and analyzed to get a clear summary. By the review, the context on the quantitative study of RSD was to be clarified. The study also showed that, primarily, fields involving quantitative study are expanding; second, big progresses and constant development have been made on the systematic method gradually sophisticated, the flourishing ecological method and emerging new methods in the context of cross and integration which has made complex integrated systems a more satisfactory solution; third, the method system has been more multi-angled, and the clues of independent innovation have been observed despite the fact that the introduction of imported method is the main trend. Although many problems exist, multi-scale study, dynamic timeseries study and inter-regional comparative study will be further exploited and increasingly carried out with the progress of spatial information technology, which would boost the development and application of new methods in RSD study.

Real-Time Optimization Model for Continuous Reforming Regenerator

An approach for the simulation and optimization of continuous catalyst-regenerative process of reforming is proposed in this paper.Compared to traditional method such as finite difference method,the orthogonal collocation method is less time-consuming and more accurate,which can meet the requirement of real-time optimization(RTO).In this paper,the equation-oriented method combined with the orthogonal collocation method and the finite difference method is adopted to build the RTO model for catalytic reforming regenerator.The orthogonal collocation method was adopted to discretize the differential equations and sequential quadratic programming(SQP)algorithm was used to solve the algebraic equations.The rate constants,active energy and reaction order were estimated,with the sum of relative errors between actual value and simulated value serving as optimization objective function.The model can quickly predict the fields of component concentration,temperature and pressure inside the regenerator under different conditions,as well as the real-time optimized conditions for industrial reforming regenerator.

Taking Stock of Grammar-Translation Teaching Method in Developing Intercultural Pragmatic Competence

Grammar-translation teaching method(GTTM as a shorthand below) has long been a buzzword when it is adopted in the class of English as a foreign language.It has been universally acknowledged that such teaching method contradicts the development of communicative language competence advocated in recent decades.However,I positively argue that GTTM in English class,as a comparative and intercultural model,should be given a due reconsideration to improve L2 learners' pragmatic competence.

Theoretical and Empirical Analysis on Influence Factors of Modern Agricultural Equipment Level in the Processof Agricultural Sustainable Development

To promote modem agricultural equipment level is one characteristic of constructing and developing modem agriculture in China. This paper makes up stepwise linear regression analysis model of influence factors of modem agricultural equipment level, and chooses rural labor, per capita income of rural residents, rural investment, proportion of people at secondary education level and at higher level in per hundred rural labor force and arable land area as independent variables, and total power of machine as induced variable. The major results show that the relativity of modem ag- ricultural equipment level, rural investment and education level of peasants is remarkable, and they are the major influence factors of modem agricultural equipment level. Raising investment level of rural infrastructure construction as well as and research and devel- opment and promotion of advanced and applicable modem agricultural equipment, improving quality and education level of peasants can accelerate the development of China＇s modern agricultural equipment effectively in the process of agricultural sustainable development.

新疆煤层气大规模高效勘探开发关键技术领域研究进展与突破方向

新疆煤层气资源量7.5万亿m^(3)(2000 m以浅),已施工煤层气井450口,年产气量达到0.8亿m^(3),新疆维吾尔自治区提出了2025年实现煤层气产量25亿m^(3)的目标,煤层气大规模高效开发成为紧迫的重大需求。从煤层气富集模式与选区技术、“甜点”预测探测技术、加速滚动开发与快速增储上产策略、地质适配性开发技术、煤层气与煤炭、油气协同开发技术5个关键技术领域,系统梳理了新疆煤层气勘探开发已取得的主要研究进展,分析提出了可能突破方向。研究表明:新疆煤储层具有多-厚煤层普遍、低阶煤发育、急倾斜煤层多见、煤体变形与构造控制显著、水文条件和露头条件复杂,和三“低”(含气量低、甲烷体积分数低、含气饱和度低)五“高”(高含气强度、高孔隙度、高地应力变化、高储层压力变化、高渗透率变化)的含气性及物性等煤层气地质独特性;煤层气成因与富集模式具有多样性,包括生物成因气、热成因气或生物-热复合成因及其相应富集模式,生物成因气藏或生物成因气贡献普遍;煤层气分布赋存规律呈现前陆盆地、山间盆地显著差异性;创新形成基于“两”分开(浅部与深部,低阶煤与中高阶煤)“两”结合(地质评价与工程评价,多元数据)的科学评价与基于“机器学习+三维地质建模”的精准选区技术是第1个突破方向。深部煤层气/煤系气“甜点”发育区域主要为盆内坳陷的凸起、盆内隆起的凹陷、盆缘斜坡,高产井位多为构造高点,发育层位为割理裂隙发育的原生结构煤层或孔裂隙发育的煤系砂砾岩储层;基于“地球物理+岩石物理+岩石力学地层新方法”和“地质甜点+工程甜点新理念”的深部煤层气/煤系气“甜点”预测探测技术是第2个突破方向。低风险、短周期、高效率、多批次工程部署是加速滚动开发的基本原则;中浅部煤层气快速增储上产技术策略是在优选新区块布井建井、对老区块煤层气井进行增产改造;深部煤层气快速增储上产技术策略是在大型盆地缓坡深部和盆内凸起“甜点”区优先部署开发;科学加速滚动开发与高效快速增储上产的工程部署方法与技术策略是第3个突破方向。在井网井型差异性优化部署、低储层伤害钻井固井、高可靠性录井测井试井、多井型高效分段压裂、低套压-控压排采管控等工程技术取得重要进展;发展构建新疆煤层气大规模高效勘探开发地质适配性技术体系是第4个突破方向。开展先采气后采煤、煤层气与煤共采、煤层气与原位富油煤共采,推动中浅部煤层气与煤炭协同勘探开发;开展煤系叠合型气藏开发、煤层气与煤系气共探共采、煤系全油气系统勘探开发,推动深部煤层气与油气协同勘探开发,已有关注和探索;煤层气与煤、油气共探共采是第5个突破方向。成果试图为新疆煤层气大规模高效勘探开发提供技术支持和工程决策参考。

基于云模型的“一带一路”沿线省份国际冷链物流发展水平评价研究

在全球消费需求日益扩大的背景下,冷链产品进出口量剧增,为冷链物流提供新的发展机遇。为研究区域间国际冷链物流发展水平差异,考虑营商环境和地理因素,构建国际冷链物流发展水平评价指标体系,运用熵权-云模型对国际冷链物流发展水平进行评价,以“一带一路”沿线省份为例进行实证分析。结果表明:71%的省份国际冷链物流发展水平处于中上水平。在营商环境、基础设施和地理环境方面存在发展差异,其中进出口总额、冷藏车数、国际联系强度和对外开放水平是影响发展的主要因素。空间上,沿海省份国际冷链物流发展水平高于内陆省份,北部地区呈现“一核一副,周边聚集”的特征,东南沿海地区呈带状分布,西北地区呈现“中部低,两端高”的特征。

碳排放权交易试点政策与绿色高质量发展

基于2008—2020年省级面板数据,通过熵值法构建出绿色高质量发展指标体系;使用双重差分模型将碳排放权交易政策的推行视作准自然的实验,研究分析该政策对我国绿色高质量发展产生的政策效应。研究结论如下:该试点政策的推行对绿色高质量发展具有正向的促进作用;并通过助推产业结构的优化升级,进而实现绿色高质量发展;研究表明在该项政策推动绿色高质量发展的过程中,工业化程度、碳排放水平越高的省份,碳排放权交易试点政策对绿色高质量发展的影响更显著。这一研究结论既是对助推绿色高质量发展的重要实证支撑,也是对推动我国全国碳市场建设的重要决策支持。

黄河流域农业碳排放效率与农业高质量发展的互动关系

为推进农业绿色低碳和高质量发展,利用超效率SBM模型和熵值法,测算了黄河流域农业碳排放效率和农业高质量发展水平,并采用VAR模型探讨了二者的互动关系。结果表明:1)黄河流域农业碳排放效率整体呈上升趋势,甘肃、山西两省,四川、山东、河南、陕西、青海五省,宁夏、内蒙古两自治区分别处于较低、中等、较高水平;2)农业高质量发展水平整体呈波动上升趋势,陕西、山西、宁夏、内蒙古四省(区),青海、甘肃两省,河南、四川、山东三省分别处于较低、中等、较高水平;3)农业碳排放效率提升促进了农业高质量发展,而农业高质量发展对农业碳排放效率影响不显著。基于研究结果,从绿色、可持续发展等方面,提出了提升黄河流域农业碳排放效率和推动农业高质量发展的建议。

欠发达地区承接产业转移能力研究——以湘南湘西示范区为例

承接产业转移对促进区域协调发展具有重要意义。基于2013—2021年湘南湘西示范区数据,通过构建承接产业转移能力评价指标体系,使用熵权逼近理想解排序法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS法)测度承接能力;再利用障碍度模型识别影响承接能力的关键因素。研究结果表明,2013—2021年,示范区内六个地区承接产业转移能力均呈现逐年提升态势,但存在明显差距;邮电业务量、实际利用外资、普通高等学校在校学生数等是阻碍承接能力提升的关键因素。最后根据研究结论提出相应的建议。

不同地形梯度下秦巴山区乡村振兴潜力及发展路径

我国山地丘陵地区在空间上相对孤立,乡村发展受到阻碍。开展不同地形梯度下乡村振兴潜力及发展路径研究,旨在为山区因地制宜推进乡村振兴提供理论与科学依据。基于陕南秦巴山区地形差异开展典型村域调研,构建评价指标体系测度乡村振兴潜力,结合相关性与障碍度模型,辨识不同地形梯度下乡村振兴的障碍因素,提出差异化发展建议。结果表明:①各地形梯度下乡村振兴综合潜力由大到小依次为低地形梯度、中低地形梯度、高地形梯度、中高地形梯度,地形梯度与秦巴山区乡村振兴综合潜力及区位条件、基础设施潜力成显著负相关关系;②随着地形梯度的上升,秦巴山区乡村主体、产业发展、人居环境、区位条件、基础设施潜力整体上呈减小趋势,资源禀赋潜力先减小后增大;③不同地形梯度下秦巴山区乡村振兴各维度潜力大小及其障碍因子皆存在明显差异。为优化山区乡村发展模式、全面推进乡村振兴,建议低地形梯度村庄重点防止人口、耕地等农业生产要素流失,中低地形梯度村庄优化基层组织、提升引领能力,中高梯度村庄加强基础设施建设、改善人居环境,高地形梯度村庄充分保护并合理利用林地资源,发展特色产业。

基于熵权-TOPSIS模型的房地产企业绿色发展评价研究——以HR公司为例

中国经济持续快速发展所引发的环境问题使得国内房地产企业面临着前所未有的绿色发展机遇。以房地产行业内追求绿色发展的HR公司为研究对象,从绿色效益、绿色科技、绿色建造、绿色采购、绿色能源、绿色管理及绿色营销7个方面选取了22个指标,将熵权法与TOPSIS模型结合形成了熵权-TOPSIS模型,以此构建了房地产企业绿色发展评价体系。结果表明:2016-2021年HR公司的绿色发展水平整体呈上升趋势;其在不同方面的绿色发展水平存在明显差异,绿色发展重点集中在绿色建造、绿色科技、绿色管理及绿色能源方面。

中国省际数字经济与旅游业高质量发展的耦合互动关系

数字经济是推动旅游业高质量发展的重要驱动力,同时旅游业高质量发展也为数字经济发展提供了物质支撑。首先,利用改进后的熵值法分别测算30个省份2011—2020年数字经济与旅游业高质量发展水平;其次,采用耦合协调度模型与Kernel密度估计法分析二者的耦合协调状态;最后,借助PVAR模型探究二者的互动响应关系。研究结果表明:(1)在研究期内,中国数字经济发展水平呈现稳步上升趋势,增幅较大且呈现显著的空间异质性;旅游业高质量发展水平呈现倒“N”型波动交替演化特征,且呈现显著的空间异质性。(2)在研究期内,数字经济与旅游业高质量发展的耦合协调度在时序上稳步提升,从期初的中度失调转为期末的基本协调状态,且存在“俱乐部收敛”发展趋向;在空间上由大到小呈东部、西部、东北部、中部的空间分布格局。(3)中国数字经济与旅游业高质量发展存在良性互动关系,短期内二者的交互效应较大;从长期影响来看,二者受自身发展的影响较大。

农业农村高质量发展水平评价及制约因素分析

该文基于2011—2022年我国31个省(区市)农业农村发展相关面板数据,运用熵值法对我国农业农村高质量发展水平进行综合评价,并运用障碍度模型探究其制约因素。结果表明,2011—2022年,我国农业农村高质量发展水平不断上升,整体呈“东高西低”的发展态势,科技创新发展和产出提质增效对其拉动作用明显。对于农业农村高质量发展的制约作用:绿色生态发展和结构优化布局最小、产出提质增效和科技创新发展最大、协调共享发展较小,其主要制约因素为农产品生产质效、科技信息化水平、人力资本要素和公共服务水平。

新基建对物流业高质量发展的影响研究

基于2011—2021年中国30个省份的面板数据,运用熵权法、耦合协调模型测算我国物流业高质量发展水平和新基建水平,并采用双向固定效应模型实证研究新基建对物流业高质量发展的影响.研究结果表明:新基建显著促进了物流业高质量发展.中介机制分析发现,新基建通过提高地区创新绩效间接影响物流业高质量发展.进一步异质性分析发现,不同经济发展水平的地区,新基建与物流业高质量发展之间的关系存在异质性,新基建对物流业高质量发展的促进作用在经济发展高水平地区表现更优.据此提出了推动新型基础设施建设与现代物流业发展深度融合、助力物流业高质量发展的对策建议.

税收负担、财政自给率与城市高质量发展

健全的财税体制是推动高质量发展的重要保障。为厘清税收负担、财政自给率与经济高质量发展的关系,有效贯彻长三角一体化国家战略,选取长三角41个城市2008—2019年面板数据,采用极值熵值法测算长三角城市高质量发展指数,运用Tobit模型实证检验税收负担和财政自给率对城市高质量发展的影响。研究发现:整体上看,长三角城市高质量发展呈阶段性波动趋势,且区域异质性明显,上海居于首位,浙江和江苏次之,安徽相对靠后。从子系统看,长三角城市高质量发展子系统指数中绿色>创新>开放>共享>协调。从实证结果看,税收负担和财政自给率都显著促进高质量发展,税收负担与财政自给率的交互项亦显著促进高质量发展。控制变量中,政府支出规模和经济发展水平对高质量发展的影响不确定,且未通过显著性检验,产业结构和能源消费结构与高质量发展具有负相关关系,城镇化水平与高质量发展具有正相关关系。

政府科技投入、环境规制对经济高质量发展的影响

本文利用我国2009—2022年30个省际面板数据,构建了经济高质量发展的综合评价指标体系,并运用空间杜宾模型系统地研究政府科技投入和环境规制对经济高质量发展的影响。结果显示:首先,政府科技投入在促进经济高质量发展方面发挥着显著的正向作用,而且不同省域间存在显著的空间溢出效应。其次,环境规制对经济高质量发展呈现出“U”型影响关系,即初期有一定抑制效应,随后逐渐转变为促进效应。然而,政府科技投入和环境规制之间的相互作用对经济高质量发展产生正向影响,这表明政府科技投入能让环境规制的拐点提前到来。从空间效应来看,政府科技投入呈现出显著的空间溢出效应,且相邻地区的溢出效应更为显著;环境规制对经济高质量发展的空间溢出效应也得到证实,但溢出效应并不显著。