Effects of data smoothing and recurrent neural network(RNN)algorithms for real-time forecasting of tunnel boring machine(TBM)performance

Tunnel boring machines(TBMs)have been widely utilised in tunnel construction due to their high efficiency and reliability.Accurately predicting TBM performance can improve project time management,cost control,and risk management.This study aims to use deep learning to develop real-time models for predicting the penetration rate(PR).The models are built using data from the Changsha metro project,and their performances are evaluated using unseen data from the Zhengzhou Metro project.In one-step forecast,the predicted penetration rate follows the trend of the measured penetration rate in both training and testing.The autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model is compared with the recurrent neural network(RNN)model.The results show that univariate models,which only consider historical penetration rate itself,perform better than multivariate models that take into account multiple geological and operational parameters(GEO and OP).Next,an RNN variant combining time series of penetration rate with the last-step geological and operational parameters is developed,and it performs better than other models.A sensitivity analysis shows that the penetration rate is the most important parameter,while other parameters have a smaller impact on time series forecasting.It is also found that smoothed data are easier to predict with high accuracy.Nevertheless,over-simplified data can lose real characteristics in time series.In conclusion,the RNN variant can accurately predict the next-step penetration rate,and data smoothing is crucial in time series forecasting.This study provides practical guidance for TBM performance forecasting in practical engineering.

Comparison study of typical algorithms for reconstructing time series from the recurrence plot of dynamical systems

The three most widely used methods for reconstructing the underlying time series via the recurrence plots （RPs） of a dynamical system are compared with each other in this paper. We aim to reconstruct a toy series, a periodical series, a random series, and a chaotic series to compare the effectiveness of the most widely used typical methods in terms of signal correlation analysis. The application of the most effective algorithm to the typical chaotic Lorenz system verifies the correctness of such an effective algorithm. It is verified that, based on the unthresholded RPs, one can reconstruct the original attractor by choosing different RP thresholds based on the Hirata algorithm. It is shown that, in real applications, it is possible to reconstruct the underlying dynamics by using quite little information from observations of real dynamical systems. Moreover, rules of the threshold chosen in the algorithm are also suggested.

An Improved Time Feedforward Connections Recurrent Neural Networks

Recurrent Neural Networks(RNNs)have been widely applied to deal with temporal problems,such as flood forecasting and financial data processing.On the one hand,traditional RNNs models amplify the gradient issue due to the strict time serial dependency,making it difficult to realize a long-term memory function.On the other hand,RNNs cells are highly complex,which will signifi-cantly increase computational complexity and cause waste of computational resources during model training.In this paper,an improved Time Feedforward Connections Recurrent Neural Networks(TFC-RNNs)model was first proposed to address the gradient issue.A parallel branch was introduced for the hidden state at time t−2 to be directly transferred to time t without the nonlinear transforma-tion at time t−1.This is effective in improving the long-term dependence of RNNs.Then,a novel cell structure named Single Gate Recurrent Unit(SGRU)was presented.This cell structure can reduce the number of parameters for RNNs cell,consequently reducing the computational complexity.Next,applying SGRU to TFC-RNNs as a new TFC-SGRU model solves the above two difficulties.Finally,the performance of our proposed TFC-SGRU was verified through sev-eral experiments in terms of long-term memory and anti-interference capabilities.Experimental results demonstrated that our proposed TFC-SGRU model can cap-ture helpful information with time step 1500 and effectively filter out the noise.The TFC-SGRU model accuracy is better than the LSTM and GRU models regarding language processing ability.

Classification of Short Time Series in Early Parkinson’s Disease With Deep Learning of Fuzzy Recurrence Plots

There are many techniques using sensors and wearable devices for detecting and monitoring patients with Parkinson’s disease(PD).A recent development is the utilization of human interaction with computer keyboards for analyzing and identifying motor signs in the early stages of the disease.Current designs for classification of time series of computer-key hold durations recorded from healthy control and PD subjects require the time series of length to be considerably long.With an attempt to avoid discomfort to participants in performing long physical tasks for data recording,this paper introduces the use of fuzzy recurrence plots of very short time series as input data for the machine training and classification with long short-term memory(LSTM)neural networks.Being an original approach that is able to both significantly increase the feature dimensions and provides the property of deterministic dynamical systems of very short time series for information processing carried out by an LSTM layer architecture,fuzzy recurrence plots provide promising results and outperform the direct input of the time series for the classification of healthy control and early PD subjects.

Predicting Wavelet-Transformed Stock Prices Using a Vanishing Gradient Resilient Optimized Gated Recurrent Unit with a Time Lag

The development of accurate prediction models continues to be highly beneficial in myriad disciplines. Deep learning models have performed well in stock price prediction and give high accuracy. However, these models are largely affected by the vanishing gradient problem escalated by some activation functions. This study proposes the use of the Vanishing Gradient Resilient Optimized Gated Recurrent Unit (OGRU) model with a scaled mean Approximation Coefficient (AC) time lag which should counter slow convergence, vanishing gradient and large error metrics. This study employed the Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU), Hyperbolic Tangent (Tanh), Sigmoid and Exponential Linear Unit (ELU) activation functions. Real-life datasets including the daily Apple and 5-minute Netflix closing stock prices were used, and they were decomposed using the Stationary Wavelet Transform (SWT). The decomposed series formed a decomposed data model which was compared to an undecomposed data model with similar hyperparameters and different default lags. The Apple daily dataset performed well with a Default_1 lag, using an undecomposed data model and the ReLU, attaining 0.01312, 0.00854 and 3.67 minutes for RMSE, MAE and runtime. The Netflix data performed best with the MeanAC_42 lag, using decomposed data model and the ELU achieving 0.00620, 0.00487 and 3.01 minutes for the same metrics.

A Markov regenerative process with recurrence time and its application

This study proposes a non-homogeneous continuous-time Markov regenerative process with recurrence times,in particular,forward and backward recurrence processes.We obtain the transient solution of the process in the form of a generalized Markov renewal equation.A distinguishing feature is that Markov and semi-Markov processes result as special cases of the proposed model.To model the credit rating dynamics to demonstrate its applicability,we apply the proposed stochastic process to Standard and Poor’s rating agency’s data.Further,statistical tests confirm that the proposed model captures the rating dynamics better than the existing models,and the inclusion of recurrence times significantly impacts the transition probabilities.

Study on Ecological Change Remote Sensing Monitoring Method Based on Elman Dynamic Recurrent Neural Network

In this paper, Hailin City of Heilongjiang Province, China is taken as the research area. As an important city in Heilongjiang Province, China, the sustainable development of its ecological environment is related to the opening up, economic prosperity and social stability of Northeast China. In this paper, the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) of Hailin City in recent 20 years was calculated by using Landsat 5/8/9 series satellite images, and the temporal and spatial changes of the ecological environment in Hailin City were further analyzed and the influencing factors were discussed. From 2003 to 2023, the mean value of RSEI in Hailin City decreased and increased, and the ecological environment decreased slightly as a whole. RSEI declined most significantly from 2003 to 2008, and it increased from 2008 to 2013, decreased from 2013 to 2018, and increased from 2018 to 2023 again, with higher RSEI value in the south and lower RSEI value in the northwest. It is suggested to appropriately increase vegetation coverage in the northwest to improve ecological quality. As a result, the predicted value of Elman dynamic recurrent neural network model is consistent with the change trend of the mean value, and the prediction error converges quickly, which can accurately predict the ecological environment quality in the future study area.

Earthquake-Affected Time-Space Domain, Recurrence Interval and Effective Preparation Time of Earthquakes

The study shows that earthquake-affected time-space domain (ETSD), i.e. a time-space range in which strong earthquakes are unable to occur owing to the influence of a prior earthquake occurring, shows a hyperbolic margin curve in the t(time)-r(distance) coordinate plane, which has a maximum affected radius r 0 at t=0 and a maximum influence time t 0 (i.e. the in-situ recurrence interval of earthquakes) at r=0. Based on the time-distance distributions of posterior earthquakes relative to prior ones in the regions of North China, Northwest China, Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) plateau and Southwest China, the optimized and 90%-confidence margin curves are estimated using optimization and statistical analysis methods. This indicates that the concept and method of ETSD with 3-dimension (time-distance-magnitudes) instead of those of “recurrence interval" with 1-dimension (time) or 2-dimension (time-magnitude) provides a new approach to understanding the fluctuation of seismic activities, estimating the effective earthquake-preparation time of potential hypocenters, and therefore improving the medium- and long-term prediction of strong earthquakes.

Recurrence of Space-Time Events

A causal-directed graphical space-time model has been suggested in which the recurrence phenomena that happen in history and science can be naturally explained. In this Ramsey theorem inspired model, the regular and repeated patterns are interpreted as identical or semi-identical space-time causal chains. The “same colored paths and subgraphs” in the classical Ramsey theorem are interpreted as identical or semi-identical causal chains. In the framework of the model, Poincare recurrence and the cosmological recurrence arise naturally. We use Ramsey theorem to prove that there’s always a possibility of predictability no matter how chaotic the system is.

Multi-step-prediction of chaotic time series based on co-evolutionary recurrent neural network

This paper proposes a co-evolutionary recurrent neural network （CERNN） for the multi-step-prediction of chaotic time series, it estimates the proper parameters of phase space reconstruction and optimizes the structure of recurrent neural networks by coevolutionary strategy. The searching space was separated into two subspaces and the individuals are trained in a parallel computational procedure. It can dynamically combine the embedding method with the capability of recurrent neural network to incorporate past experience due to internal recurrence. The effectiveness of CERNN is evaluated by using three benchmark chaotic time series data sets： the Lorenz series, Mackey-Glass series and real-world sun spot series. The simulation results show that CERNN improves the performances of multi-step-prediction of chaotic time series.

Delay dependent stability criteria for recurrent neural networks with time varying delays

This paper aims to present some delay-dependent global asymptotic stability criteria for recurrent neural networks with time varying delays. The obtained results have no restriction on the magnitude of derivative of time varying delay, and can be easily checked due to the form of linear matrix inequality. By comparison with some previous results, the obtained results are less conservative. A numerical example is utilized to demonstrate the effectiveness of the obtained results.

Ship motion extreme short time prediction of ship pitch based on diagonal recurrent neural network

A DRNN (diagonal recurrent neural network) and its RPE (recurrent prediction error) learning algorithm are proposed in this paper .Using of the simple structure of DRNN can reduce the capacity of calculation. The principle of RPE learning algorithm is to adjust weights along the direction of Gauss-Newton. Meanwhile, it is unnecessary to calculate the second local derivative and the inverse matrixes, whose unbiasedness is proved. With application to the extremely short time prediction of large ship pitch, satisfactory results are obtained. Prediction effect of this algorithm is compared with that of auto-regression and periodical diagram method, and comparison results show that the proposed algorithm is feasible.

Distribution of empirical recurrence intervals for segment-rupturing earthquakes onactive faults of the Chinese mainland

For the two main recurrence behaviors of segment-rupturing earthquakes on active faults of the Chinese mainland,this paper establishes corresponding empirical distributions forearthquake recurrence interval. The results show that, for the time-predictable recurrence, the normalized recurrence interval, T/Tt, obeys very well the lognormal distributions: LN (μ1=0.00, σ21 =0. 152), where, T is an observed recurrence interval, and Tt is the average recurrence interval that is correlative with the size of the preceding event. For the quasi-periodic recurrence, the normalized recurrence interval, T/T, follows the lognormal distribution : LN(μq=0.00, σ2q=0.242), where, T is the median of recurrence intervals for various cycles. A statistical test suggests that, there is no significant difference between the latter distribution, built by this paper, and the recurrence interval distribution for the characteristic earthquakes of the Circum-Pacific Plate boundaries (NB model). Accordingly, this paper combines these two distributions into one and obtains a more stable lognormal distribution :LN (μ = 0.00, σ2 = 0.222), for the quasi-periodic recurrence interval.

New Stability Criteria for Recurrent Neural Networks with a Time-varying Delay

This paper deals with the stability of static recurrent neural networks （RNNs） with a time-varying delay. An augmented Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional is employed, in which some useful terms are included. Furthermore, the relationship among the timevarying delay, its upper bound and their difierence, is taken into account, and novel bounding techniques for 1- τ（t） are employed. As a result, without ignoring any useful term in the derivative of the Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, the resulting delay-dependent criteria show less conservative than the existing ones. Finally, a numerical example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

The Additive-multiplicative Hazards Model for Multiple Type of Recurrent Gap Times

Recurrent event gap times data frequently arise in biomedical studies and often more than one type of event is of interest. To evaluate the effects of covariates on the marginal recurrent event hazards functions, there exist two types of hazards models： the multiplicative hazards model and the additive hazards model. In the paper, we propose a more flexible additive-multiplicative hazards model for multiple type of recurrent gap times data, wherein some covariates are assumed to be additive while others are multiplicative. An estimating equation approach is presented to estimate the regression parameters. We establish asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators.

Robust stability analysis of Takagi-Sugeno uncertain stochastic fuzzy recurrent neural networks with mixed time-varying delays

In this paper, the global stability of Takagi-Sugeno （TS） uncertain stochastic fuzzy recurrent neural networks with discrete and distributed time-varying delays （TSUSFRNNs） is considered. A novel LMI-based stability criterion is obtained by using Lyapunov functional theory to guarantee the asymptotic stability of TSUSFRNNs. The proposed stability conditions are demonstrated through numerical examples. Furthermore, the supplementary requirement that the time derivative of time-varying delays must be smaller than one is removed. Comparison results are demonstrated to show that the proposed method is more able to guarantee the widest stability region than the other methods available in the existing literature.

Gear Fault Detection Using Recurrence Quantification Analysis and Support Vector Machine

This paper presents the application of recurrence plots (RPs) and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) in the diagnostics of various faults in a gear-train system. For this study, multiple test gears with different health conditions (such as a healthy gear, and defective gears with a root crack on one tooth, multiple cracks on five teeth and missing tooth) are studied. The vibration data of a gear-train is measured by a triaxial accelerometer installed on the test. Two different support vector machine classifiers are trained and compared. Mutual information is used to rank the extracted features in order to select an optimal subset that provides as much information as possible about the intrinsic dynamics of the system. Results indicate that our approach is quite efficient in diagnosing the status of the health of the gear system and characterizing the dynamic behavior.

Study on the Recurrence Probability of Strong Earthquakes of Faults

Based on the physical model of Brownian passage time,the probabilities of recurrence of strong earthquakes on the major active faults in China are calculated in different predictive time spans,based mainly on the analysis of the earthquake preparation process before a strong earthquake occurs. Furthermore,the seismic risks on active faults are studied. The results show that the earthquake probabilities on the Xianshuihe fault,the Altyn Tagh fault,the east Kunlun fault and Xiaojiang fault are significantly greater than other faults in the Chinese mainland,which indicates that the level of stress accumulation on these faults are higher than on other faults. Therefore,these faults may have a seismic risk for strong earthquake in future.

Survival Reassessment at Tumor Recurrence in Soft Matter

The paper reassesses a survival at tumor recurrence in soft matter. First, the stability of structural motifs under shear in clusters of dipolar spheres is characterized. Next, there are introduced transitions between polymer knots and rhythms of these transitions are obtained. The sensor is built for these rhythms. Treatment, with a tensile force protocol, is modeled, when the tumor in soft matter is observed by the above sensor. Survival probability, at tumor recurrence in soft matter, is defined for the treatment with a tensile force protocol. It is stated that the survival probability at a tensile force protocol treatment in soft matter confirms or specifies the prognostic survival of 32 patients with breast cancer.

Adaptive Conditional Hazard Regression Modeling of Multiple Event Times

Recurrent event time data and more general multiple event time data are commonly analyzed using extensions of Cox regression, or proportional hazards regression, as used with single event time data. These methods treat covariates, either time-invariant or time-varying, as having multiplicative effects while general dependence on time is left un-estimated. An adaptive approach is formulated for analyzing multiple event time data. Conditional hazard rates are modeled in terms of dependence on both time and covariates using fractional polynomials restricted so that the conditional hazard rates are positive-valued and so that excess time probability functions (generalizing survival functions for single event times) are decreasing. Maximum likelihood is used to estimate parameters adjusting for right censored event times. Likelihood cross-validation (LCV) scores are used to compare models. Adaptive searches through alternate conditional hazard rate models are controlled by LCV scores combined with tolerance parameters. These searches identify effective models for the underlying multiple event time data. Conditional hazard regression is demonstrated using data on times between tumor recurrence for bladder cancer patients. Analyses of theory-based models for these data using extensions of Cox regression provide conflicting results on effects to treatment group and the initial number of tumors. On the other hand, fractional polynomial analyses of these theory-based models provide consistent results identifying significant effects to treatment group and initial number of tumors using both model-based and robust empirical tests. Adaptive analyses further identify distinct moderation by group of the effect of tumor order and an additive effect to group after controlling for nonlinear effects to initial number of tumors and tumor order. Results of example analyses indicate that adaptive conditional hazard rate modeling can generate useful insights into multiple event time data.