Sensitivity of Penman-Monteith Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in Tao'er River Basin of Northeastern China

A non-dimensional relative sensitivity coefficient was employed to predict the responses of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) to perturbation of four climate variables in Tao'er River Basin of the northeastern China. Mean monthly ET0 and yearly ET0 from 1961 to 2005 were estimated with the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith Equation. A 45-year historical dataset of average monthly maximum/minimum air temperature, mean air temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours and relative humidity from 15 meteorological stations was used in the analysis. Results show that: 1) Sensitivity coefficients of wind speed, air temperature and sunshine hours were positive except for those of air tem- perature of Arxan Meteorological Station, while those of relative humidity were all negative. Relative humidity was the most sensitive variable in general for the Tao'er River Basin, followed by sunshine hours, wind speed and air tem- perature. 2) Similar to climate variable, monthly sensitivity coefficients exhibit large annual fluctuations. 3) Sensitivity coefficients for four climate variables all showed significant trends in seasonal/yearly series. Also, sensitivity coefficients of air temperature, sunshine hours and wind speed all showed significant trends in spring. 4) Among all sensitiv- ity coefficients, the average yearly sensitivity coefficient of relative humidity was highest throughout the basin and showed largest spatial variability. Longitudinal distribution of sensitivity coefficients for air temperature, relative hu- midity and sunshine hours was also found, which was similar to the distribution of the three climate variables.

Spatial variation of reference crop evapotranspiration on Tibetan Plateau

This study is based on meteorological observation data collected at 38 weather stations on the Tibetan Plateau over several decades. Daily reference crop evapotranspiration （ETo） was calculated with the FAO-56 standard Penman-Monteith formula. A test of normality was performed with Statistica 6.0 software, isotropic and anisotropic semi-variogram analysis was conducted with the GS＋ （geostatistics for the environmental sciences） system for Windows 7.0, and the characteristics of spatial variation of daily ETo were obtained. The following results can be obtained Daily ETo for different periods on the Tibetan Plateau are distributed normally; Except for daily ETo in the E-W （east-west） direction in the summer, which showed a slight negative correlation with distance change, the Moran＇s indexes of daily ETo for different periods in all directions on the Tibetan Plateau within a 100-km distance were positive, demonstrating a positive correlation with distance change; Variograms of daily ETo in June, the dry season, the wet season, as well as annual average daily ETo fit well with the Gaussian model; A variogram of daily ETo in December fit well with the exponential model; Variograms of daily ETo for the four seasons fit well with the linear With sill model.

Comparison of Methods for Estimating Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in Beijing

Based on the meteorological data from 1951 to 2015 in Beijing,the reference crop evapotranspiration(ET_0)in Beijing was estimated using the FAO 56 Penman-Monteith method,the FAO PPP-17 Penman method,the Hargreaves method,and the Priestley-Taylor method.The results showed that the monthly and annual changing trends of ET0 estimated by the four methods are basically the same.In general,the ET0 values estimated by the Hargreaves method are the closest to those of the standard method FAO 56 Penman-Monteith,while the difference between the FAO PPP-17 Penman method and the standard method is the biggest.The Hargreaves method is the most suitable method for the estimation of ET0 in Beijing.

Spatiotemporal variations of evapotranspiration and reference crop water requirement over 1957-2016 in Iran based on CRU TS gridded dataset

Agriculture needs to produce more food to feed the growing population in the 21st century.It makes the reference crop water requirement(WREQ)a major challenge especially in regions with limited water and high water demand.Iran,with large climatic variability,is experiencing a serious water crisis due to limited water resources and inefficient agriculture.In order to overcome the issue of uneven distribution of weather stations,gridded Climatic Research Unit(CRU)data was applied to analyze the changes in potential evapotranspiration(PET),effective precipitation(EFFPRE)and WREQ.Validation of data using in situ observation showed an acceptable performance of CRU in Iran.Changes in PET,EFFPRE and WREQ were analyzed in two 30-a periods 1957-1986 and 1987-2016.Comparing two periods showed an increase in PET and WREQ in regions extended from the southwest to northeast and a decrease in the southeast,more significant in summer and spring.However,EFFPRE decreased in the southeast,northeast,and northwest,especially in winter and spring.Analysis of annual trends revealed an upward trend in PET(14.32 mm/decade)and WREQ(25.50 mm/decade),but a downward trend in EFFPRE(-11.8 mm/decade)over the second period.Changes in PET,EFFPRE and WREQ in winter have the impact on the annual trend.Among climate variables,WREQ showed a significant correlation(r=0.59)with minimum temperature.The increase in WREQ and decrease in EFFPRE would exacerbate the agricultural water crisis in Iran.With all changes in PET and WREQ,immediate actions are needed to address the challenges in agriculture and adapt to the changing climate.

Comparison of Calculation Methods for Potential Reference Crop Evapotranspiration ET_0 in North Xinjiang

Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET_0) is a critical part in water cycle and water balance of ecosystem, which is greatly important to effective utilization of agricultural water resources and for making reasonable irrigation system. In order to propose a suitable method for computing ET_0 in North Xinjiang, based on daily meteorological data from May 1 to September30, 2010 provided by Weather Station of Fuhai County, we used FAO56 Penman-Monteith as the standard formula to compute ET_0, compared the differences and relations between such the method and other 4 calculation formulas, and analyzed the cause of the deviation, finally evaluated the applicability of computational method in North Xinjiang. The results showed that the calculation results by FA056 PM Method was approximate to that by FAO Penman method and IA method, of which the relative error was 9.26% and 13.51% respectively, the ET_0 results calculated by PT method and HS method were generally greater than the results by FAO56 PM, and their deviation was very obvious.

Application of geodetector in sensitivity analysis of reference crop evapotranspiration spatial changes in Northwest China

Reference crop evapotranspiration(ET0)is an important parameter in the research of farmland irrigation management,crop water demand estimation and water balance in scarce data areas,therefore,it is very important to study the factors affecting the spatial variation of ET0.In this paper,the Penman-Monteith formula was used to calculate ET0 which is the dependent variable of elevation(Elev),daily maximum temperature(T_(max)),daily minimum temperature(Tmin),daily average temperature(T_(mean)),wind speed(U_(2)),sunshine duration(SD)and relative humidity(RH).The sensitivity analysis of ET0 was performed using a Geodetector method based on spatial stratified heterogeneity.The applicability of Geodetector in sensitivity analysis of ET0 was verified by comparing it with existing research results.Results show that RH,Tmax,SD,and Tmean are the main factors affecting ET0 in Northwest China,and RH has the best explanatory power for the spatial distribu‐tion of ET0.Geodetector has a unique advantage in sensitivity analysis,because it can analyze the synergistic effect of two factors on the change of ET0.The interactive detector of Geodetector revealed that the synergistic effect of RH and Tmean on ET0 is very significant,and can explain 89%of the spatial variation of ET0.This research provides a new method for sensitivity analysis of ET0 changes.

Evaluation of Actual Evapotranspiration and Crop Coefficient in Carrot by Remote Sensing Methodology Using Drainage and River Water to Overcome Reduced Water Availability

Searching for alternative methods for traditional irrigation is World trend at days due to a reduction in water and increased of drought due to climate changes therefore farmers need use modern methods of scheduling water and minimizing water losses while also increasing yield. To meet the future increasing demands water and food there is a need to utilize alternative methods to reduce evaporation, transpiration and deep percolation of water. Any countries use recycled water (drain and sewage) and desalination water from the sea or drains to irrigate crops plus computing actual crop evapotranspiration (ETc) so as to calculate the amount of water to apply to a crop. The paper aims to assess the actual evaporation and evaporation coefficient of carrots, by planting carrots in a field and the crop was exposed to several sources of water (DW and RW) and comparing ETc, Kc and production among plots of three sites (A, B and C). The study used two types of irrigation water (drain water (DW) and river water (RW)). The results were to monthly rate and accumulated actual evapotranspiration to C (irrigation by RW only) more than A (67% RW and 33% DW) and B (17% RW and 83% DW) via 7% and 58%, respectively. The yield to C more than A and B by 17% and 75%, respectively. In conclusion the use of DW can cause a reduction in crop consumptive of carrot crops also causes a reduction in yield, crop length, root length, root size, canopy of crop, number of leaves and biomass of the plant therefore, the drainage water needs to treated before irrigating crops And making use of it to irrigate the fields and fill the shortfall in the amount of water from the river. The drain water helped on filling the water shortage due to climate changes and giving production of carrot crop but less than river water.

Future changes in rainfall, temperature and reference evapotranspiration in the central India by least square support vector machine

Climate change affects the environment and natural resources immensely. Rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration are major parameters of climate affecting changes in the environment. Evapotrans- piration plays a key role in crop production and water balance of a region, one of the major parameters affected by climate change. The reference evapotranspiration or ETo is a calculated parameter used in this research. In the present study, changes in the future rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature, and ETo have been shown by downscaling the HadCM3 （Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3） model data. The selected study area is located in a part of the Narmada river basin area in Madhya Pradesh in central India. The downscaled outputs of projected rainfall, ETo and temperatures have been shown for the 21st century with the HADCM3 data of A2 scenario by the Least Square Support Vector Machine （LS-SVM） model. The efficiency of the LS-SVM model was measured by different statistical methods. The selected predictors show considerable correlation with the rainfall and temperature and the application of this model has been done in a basin area which is an agriculture based region and is sensitive to the change of rainfall and temperature. Results showed an increase in the future rainfall, temperatures and ETo. The temperature increase is projected in the high rise of minimum temperature in winter time and the highest increase in maximum temperature is projected in the pre-monsoon season or from March to May. Highest increase is projected in the 2080s in 2081-2091 and 2091-2099 in maximum temperature and 2091-2099 in minimum temperature in all the stations. Winter maximum temperature has been observed to have increased in the future. High rainfall is also observed with higher ETo in some decades. Two peaks of the increase are observed in ETo in the April-May and in the October. Variation in these parameters due to climate change might have an impact on the future water resource of the study area, which is mainly an agricultural based region, and will help in proper planning and management.

Determination of Reference Evapotranspiration Using Penman-Monteith Method in Case of Missing Wind Speed Data under Subhumid Climatic Condition in Hungary

The reference evapotranspiration was calculated using Penman-Monteith method proposed. This method was evaluated on data measured by lysimeter in Szarvas experimental station in Hungary. The results of the two methods were in good agreement. However, this method requires an amount of data which is not available at all sites of meteorological measurement. Therefore it was necessary to investigate which elements influencing evapotranspiration are important and which elements are less important. With the help of investigation was indicated that radiation and vapor pressure deficit play important role in determination of reference evapotranspiration. Taking into account this there was two possibilities to calculate evapotranspiration. One of these is to use Penman-Monteith formula with constant wind speed as advised by Allen. Another one is to neglect wind speed data. Both methods were investigated and the method with constant wind speed was found better in a subhumid climatic condition of Hungary.

Actual evapotranspiration of subalpine meadows in the Qilian Mountains, Northwest China

As a main component in water balance,evapotranspiration(ET)is of great importance for water saving,especially in arid and semi-arid areas.In this study,the FAO(Food and Agriculture Organization)Penman-Monteith model was used to estimate the magnitude and temporal dynamics of reference evapotranspiration(ET0)in 2014 in subalpine meadows of the Qilian Mountains,Northwest China.Meanwhile,actual ET(ETc)was also investigated by the eddy covariance(EC)system.Results indicated that ETc estimated by the EC System was 583 mm,lower than ET0(923 mm)estimated by the FAO Penman-Monteith model in 2014.Moreover,ET0 began to increase in March and reached the peak value in August and then declined in September,however,ETc began to increase from April and reached the peak value in July,and then declined in August.Total ETc and ET0 values during the growing season(from May to September)were 441 and 666 mm,respectively,which accounted for 75.73%of annual cumulative ETc and 72.34%of annual cumulative ET0,respectively.A crop coefficient(kc)was also estimated for calculating the ETc,and average value of kc during the growing season was 0.81(ranging from 0.45 to 1.16).Air temperature(Ta),wind speed(u),net radiation(Rn)and soil temperature(Ts)at the depth of 5 cm and aboveground biomass were critical factors for affecting kc,furthermore,a daily empirical kc equation including these main driving factors was developed.Our result demonstrated that the ETc value estimated by the data of kc and ET0 was validated and consistent with the growing season data in 2015 and 2016.

气候变化背景下山西省气象干旱时空演变特征

干旱频发对生态资源、农业发展造成了严重影响,为揭示山西省干旱时空演变特征,基于1971—2020年山西省24个气象站点的逐月气象资料,利用改进的Mann-Kendall方法检验各气象因子的年变化趋势,采用FAO56 Penman-Monteith公式计算参考作物腾发量(ET0),分析单个气象因子变化情况下ET0的变化特征和对气象因子的敏感性,比较各时间尺度(月、季、年尺度)不同干旱指数(降水距平百分率(Pa)、标准化降水指数(SPI)和标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI))对山西省干旱灾害监测能力。结果表明:ET0与相对湿度呈负相关,气象因子对ET0的敏感性由大到小依次为相对湿度、日最高气温、2 m处风速、日最低气温、日平均气温,ET0呈波动下降趋势。SPEI能够在多时间尺度上有效反映山西省干旱状况,是该地区干旱监测的有效工具。在月、季、年尺度下,比较3个干旱指数,Pa检测效果较差,SPI和SPEI在某些地理区域存在较大差异,整体而言,SPEI在多数地区检测干旱的性能更好;SPEI-1尺度下,各干旱等级发生频率由大到小依次为轻旱(14.8%)、中旱(10.6%)、重旱(5.6%)、特旱(1.9%),3月干旱发生率最高(34%),12月发生率最低(31.8%),吕梁市、晋中市、大同市干旱情况较为严重;SPEI-3尺度下,季节发生干旱频率由大到小依次为秋季(33.5%)、夏季(32.5%)、春季(31.9%)、冬季(31.4%),大同市、长治市特旱发生频率最高,旱情最为严重,忻州市轻旱频率、朔州市中旱频率、吕梁市重旱频率最高;SPEI-12尺度下,轻、中、重、特旱频率分别为14.8%、10.5%、5.4%、2.3%,SPEI-12相较SPEI-1和SPEI-3识别重旱、特旱的站点更多,并基于游程理论得出,山西省南部干旱频次更多,东部干旱历时更长、干旱严重程度更大,干旱峰值主要出现在山西省南北部,由于年均降水呈波动性下降,年均气温整体上升,山西省的气候趋于暖干化,南北部旱情将有所加重,中部地区旱情有所减缓,全域性干旱仍有很大发生可能。

内蒙古阿鲁科尔沁旗饲草燕麦需水规律与灌溉定额研究

为了给内蒙古阿鲁科尔沁旗饲草燕麦(Avena spp.)灌溉提供科学依据,本研究利用1984-2013年30年气象数据,采用联合国粮农组织推荐的彭曼-蒙特斯公式法,研究了内蒙古阿鲁科尔沁旗饲草燕麦需水规律和灌溉定额。结果表明,内蒙古阿鲁科尔沁旗饲草燕麦第1、2茬和全生产期需水量分别为370、297和667mm,需水强度分别为4.1、2.9和3.5mm/d,灌溉需水量分别为295、149和443mm,灌溉定额分别为347、175和522mm。

辽宁省作物生长季参考作物腾发量变化分析

利用1961—2020年辽宁省56个国家级气象观测站生长季的逐日气象观测数据,采用Penman-Monteith公式计算辽宁省参考作物腾发量(ET_(0)),利用ArcGIS的克里格插值法、M-K检验分析辽宁省生长季ET_(0)的时空分布特征,对影响ET_(0)变化的气象因子进行了分析。结果表明:近60年辽宁省生长季参考作物腾发量呈现由西北向东南递减的变化趋势;ET_(0)在1961—2010年呈下降趋势,2011—2020年呈升高趋势,生长季多年平均ET_(0)变化趋势表现为波动下降;生长季内ET_(0)对相对湿度的响应最为敏感,为负效应;ET_(0)对风速和温度变化敏感性相对较小,为正效应。湿度的敏感系数绝对值明显高于风速和温度,7月达到峰值;多年相对变化率绝对值最大的是风速,其次是温度和相对湿度;对ET_(0)贡献最大的是风速,温度和湿度对ET_(0)的正贡献不及风速的负贡献,综合敏感性和贡献两方面因素分析,风速的变化趋势为ET_(0)呈下降趋势的主导因子。

Climate change and its effect on reference crop evapotranspiration in central and western Inner Mongolia during 1961-2009

Water resource is one of the major constraints to agricultural production in central and western Inner Mongolia, where are characteristic by arid and semi-arid climate. Reference crop evapotranspiration （ETo） is an important part of water cycle in agricultural ecosystem, which has a direct effect on crop growth and yield. The implications of climate change on ETo are of high importance for agriculture regarding water management and irrigation scheduling. The aim of this study was to analyze the variations in climate and its effect on ETo in central and western Inner Mongolia over the period 1961 to 2009 For this purpose, data in ten meteorological stations across study area were collected and the FAO Penman-Monteith 56 method was used. Results showed that the average temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature increased by 0.49~C, 0.31~C and 0.70~C per decade during 1961-2009, respectively. In comparison, the daily temperature range decreased by 0.38~C per decade. The air relative humidity, sunshine hour, and 10-m wind speed decreased generally by 0.58%, 40.11 h, and 0.35 rrds per decade, respectively. Annual mean ETo decreased significantly at a rate of 12.2 mm per decade over the periods, this was mainly due to the decrease in wind speed in the study area. The decrease in wind speed may balance the effect of the increase in air temperature on ETo. Variations in spatial distribution of ETo and its main controlling factor were also detected among ten stations. Our results suggested that spatial and temporal distribution of ETo should be considered regarding the optimization of water resource management for agriculture in central and western Inner Mongolia under foreseen climate change.

长岭县近60年干旱特征分析

本文使用1961—2020年逐日基础气象资料,采用FAO Penman-Monteith计算参考作物蒸散量ET0,根据农业干旱等级国标计算作物水分亏缺指数CWDI及作物水分亏缺距平指数CWDI_(a),根据作物水分亏缺距平指数CWDI_(a)干旱等级标准及玉米干旱灾害风险评价方法计算玉米生产5~9月逐旬干旱、轻旱、中旱、重旱、特旱发生频率,对5~9月干旱发生规律及干旱年代际变化规律进行分析。结果表明,作物生长季5~9月轻旱、中旱、重旱发生频率多在10%以下,出现频率较低,特旱发生频率最高。特旱及干旱在6月上中旬、9月上中旬出现两个峰值,6月下旬至8月下旬干旱发生频率作物生长季最低。2001—2010年轻旱、中旱、重旱、特旱及干旱发生频率最高,2011—2020年干旱发生频率最低。9月轻旱有随年代际增加趋势,7月中旬至8月中旬中旱有随年代际增加趋势,重旱各年代5月上中旬、8月下旬至9月中旬维持较高发生频率。特旱各年代都维持较高发生频率,7月中旬至8月下旬特旱有随年代际增加趋势。

基于单作物系数法的温室秋季生菜蒸散量估算及验证

【目的】基于单作物系数法估算温室秋季生菜蒸散量。【方法】通过2021—2022年温室秋季生菜试验,根据各生育期影响因素修正FAO-56推荐作物系数值,即生育前期根据ET0值和灌溉频率修正,生育中期和生育后期根据气象因素和株高修正,并采用单作物系数法对温室生菜蒸散量进行估算,以称重式蒸渗仪实测蒸散量ETcm为标准值对蒸散量估算值ETcs进行验证。【结果】不同试验年度逐日ET0均呈逐渐降低变化趋势,介于1.18~2.44 mm/d。温室生菜作物系数修正值(Kc adj)和实测值(K_(c loc))均在生育前期最高,2 a均值分别为0.74±0.13和0.76±0.13;进入快速发育期后二者均呈降低趋势,并在生育中后期逐渐稳定在0.5~0.6。各生育阶段的Kc adj较FAO推荐值(Kc FAO)更接近实测值(K_(c loc)),Kc adj和K_(c loc)相对误差介于-6.7%~5.4%。应用修正单作物系数法估算温室秋季生菜ETcs与实测ETcm的日均值分别为1.310 mm/d和1.283 mm/d,决定系数(R^(2))、平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方根误差(RMSE)、一致性指数(d)分别为0.975、0.176 mm/d、0.222 mm/d、0.955。【结论】修正单作物系数法能够较为准确的估算温室秋季生菜蒸散量。

淮北平原36种参考作物蒸散量估算方法适用性研究

为分析不同参考作物蒸散量估算方法在淮北平原的适用性,以FAO56 Penman-Monteith(FAO56PM)模型为标准,基于五道沟实验站2009-2022年气象观测数据,选取6种统计指标,从日、月尺度综合分析。结果表明,所有方法中,日尺度下FAO24Penman(FAO24PM)法、1996 KiM-Berly Penman(K-P)法、Pristley-Taylor(P-T)法最优,月尺度下FAO24PM法、P-T法、Debruin-Keijman(D-K)法最优;综合法最优,其次依次为辐射法、质量传输法和温度法;综合法中FAO24PM法最优,辐射法中P-T法最优,温度法中FAO24BC法最优,质量传输法中Mahringer法日尺度下最优,Trabert法月尺度下最优。因此,当数据资料充足时推荐FAO24PM法,资料不齐全时推荐P-T法、FAO24BC法、Mahringer法(日尺度)或Trabert法(月尺度)。

宁夏沿黄绿洲参考作物蒸散演变特征及其归因

参考作物蒸散(Reference crop evapotranspiration,ET_(0))是生态水文过程中的关键因子,研究ET_(0)在干旱绿洲区的演变,不仅有助于理解气候变化背景下的绿洲水文过程响应,亦对绿洲水土资源高效配置和生态系统稳定性维持有指导意义。以宁夏沿黄绿洲为例,基于1960—2019年的气象资料和Penman-Monteith模型计算ET_(0),利用Mann-kendall突变检验、相对敏感系数和Morlet小波分析等方法,对宁夏沿黄绿洲近60 a的ET_(0)演变特征及其归因进行研究。结果表明:(1)宁夏沿黄绿洲ET_(0)年内呈单峰形态,ET_(0)在5—7月间较高,累积ET_(0)占年总ET_(0)的43.6%;近60 a的ET_(0)年均值为1226.38 mm,并以1.66 mm/a(P<0.01)幅度上升,但年际波动特征明显,其中在1988年突变之前,ET_(0)无显著变化趋势,而突变之后则以每10 a左右的周期显著增加或降低。(2)年ET_(0)主要以20—40 a和50—60 a周期振荡,且有多重时间尺度的复杂嵌套现象,不同季节的周期振荡差异较大,夏、秋季振荡幅度较强,其周期接近于年ET_(0)规律,而冬、春季振荡幅度较弱。(3)虽然ET_(0)与6种气象因子均存在显著相关性,但ET_(0)对不同气象因子的敏感性存在差异,其中对最高温度和相对湿度的敏感性较高,敏感系数分别为11.58%和8.40%。(4)宁夏沿黄绿洲ET_(0)与区域气候变化特征有较强的耦合性,区域气候的持续升温和相对湿度持续降低、以及由此引发的饱和水汽压亏缺持续增强是推动ET_(0)上升的重要原因,而气候由湿润向干旱的突变和平均风速的异常波动是诱发ET_(0)突变的原因。

元谋干热河谷1988—2022年参考作物蒸散量的演变趋势及其影响因素

为研究元谋干热河谷地区参考作物蒸散量的变化及其影响因素,以元谋干热河谷1988—2022年气象站点逐日气象数据为基础,采用敏感度分析、贡献率分析、主成分分析、通径分析、分层聚类分析、灰色关联度等定量和定性的方法分析元谋干热河谷参考作物蒸散量变化规律及其影响因素。结果表明:近35 a,元谋干热河谷年度、旱、雨季参考作物蒸散量均呈显著上升趋势(Z>1.96),每10 a增幅分别为18.663、3.903、14.761 mm,增幅表现为雨季大于旱季,2008年既是年度参考作物蒸散量转折点也是突变点,旱、雨季的参考作物蒸散量无突变点;主成分分析结果显示,根据综合得分系数和权重对8个气象因子进行排序,从大到小依次为,日最高气温、日平均气温、日相对湿度、日照时间、日最低气温、日平均风速、日平均降水、实际水汽压;聚类分析结果将8个气象要素划分为6类,灰色关联度值计算结果与主成分分析结果一致,灰色关联度和主成分分析互相验证;元谋干热河谷的年度参考作物蒸散量主要受到日最高气温的影响,而在不同季节,参考作物蒸散量的主导因素不同。

基于思维进化算法优化的东北地区参考作物蒸散量估算

准确估算参考作物蒸散发(Reference crop evapotranspiration,ET_(0))对于农业水资源管理至关重要。东北地区是我国最重要的粮食产区,但该区域纬度相对较高、气温相对较低,ET_(0)影响因素多、估算的不确定性高。研究选取东北地区20个代表性气象站点1961-2019年气象数据,采用Mann-Kendall非参数趋势检验及反距离加权插值法模拟东北地区ET_(0)时空变化特征,并利用思维进化算法(Mind Evolutionary Algorithm,MEA)优化模型参数,以FAO-56 Penman-Monteith公式计算结果为标准值,比较9种不同输入因子的模型精度,结果表明:(1)1961-2019年东北地区ET_(0)的年平均值在567.81~1080.66 mm之间,东北地区北部的年均ET_(0)值呈上升趋势,中部平原及南部沿海呈下降趋势;(2)通过对东北地区20个站点使用不同类型模型计算ET_(0)的评估,优化前精度表现:辐射型模型>湿度型模型>温度型模型。其中Mak模型在东北地区的计算精度最高,相应的R^(2)、NSE、RMSE、和MAE中位数值分别为0.801、0.786、0.570 mm/d和0.331 mm/d;(3)MEA算法优化后,对9种经验模型的R^(2)、NSE、RMSE和MAE提升幅度分别为14.43~47.15%、14.84~50.47%、5.42~46.79%、7.47~39.86%。优化后的Mak模型相应的R^(2)、NSE、RMSE、和MAE中位数值分别为0.910、0.907、0.510 mm/d、0.291 mm/d。因此,在气象资料缺乏情景下,Mak模型可作为东北地区ET_(0)计算的最优模型,并且MEA算法优化能够高效提高模型计算精度,实现了准确性和效率之间更优化的平衡。