Reform dividends refer to the improvements in certain economic actors under the new, reformed institutional system as compared against the original system. Reform leads to greater economic growth potential by changing...Reform dividends refer to the improvements in certain economic actors under the new, reformed institutional system as compared against the original system. Reform leads to greater economic growth potential by changing the institutional environment, which in turn increases the vibrancy and innovation of economic actors. The most economically convenient system is also in actuality the most effective market economic system. Reform based on public and collective actions should be based on the following principle： if institutional reform is evolving towards the enhancement of economic convenience, then we can be sure that reform is embarking on the path of releasing dividends.展开更多
Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during t...Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020). China's economic growth sustainability hinges upon its transition from the previous dependence on demographic dividend to the future reform dividend. In the growth accounting equation, we have simulated various reform initiatives and arrived at the following findings. First, although both the labor participation rate and TFP can increase China's potential growth rate, the former will only achieve a short-term growth effect, which will diminish in the long run. By contrast, the growth effect of TFP demonstrates the tendency of continuous increase. This further indicates that China's economic growth will increasingly rely on TFP improvement instead of traditional factor input. Second, different from the diminishing growth effect of enrolment rate, training may play a pivotal role in human capital development to significantly enhance potential growth rates. Third, if all reform initiatives can achieve their expected effects, integrated reform dividends may reach one or two percentage points of China's potential growth rate.展开更多
China＇s extraordinary performance of economic growth is not without source. It has simultaneously resulted from the profound reform and wide opening-up as a sufficient condition and from demographic dividend as a nec...China＇s extraordinary performance of economic growth is not without source. It has simultaneously resulted from the profound reform and wide opening-up as a sufficient condition and from demographic dividend as a necessary condition. The characteristic of consolidating reform, opening-up, growth, and sharing in China makes its experience an inclusive development. This paper looks back at China＇s reform process to reveal how growth potentials have been translated into actual growth through factors accumulation and resources reallocation. It then points out that as the stage of dual economy development has altered and as a result demographic dividend has disappeared, the sustainable growth of the Chinese economy is facing big challenges. This paper concludes by proposing policy suggestions for deepening reform.展开更多
Taking Ningde City as an example,this paper analyzed current situations of construction and comprehensive reform of small towns.It further discussed existing problems and causes in the construction and comprehensive r...Taking Ningde City as an example,this paper analyzed current situations of construction and comprehensive reform of small towns.It further discussed existing problems and causes in the construction and comprehensive reform of small towns.Finally,it came up with pertinent recommendations,in the hope of providing some valuable references for construction and comprehensive reform of small towns in Ningde City.展开更多
China’s ballooning current account surplus has caused a plethora of adverse effects on the healthy development of its economy.Based on an in-depth analysis of the contributory factors to the swelling current account ...China’s ballooning current account surplus has caused a plethora of adverse effects on the healthy development of its economy.Based on an in-depth analysis of the contributory factors to the swelling current account surplus,this paper purports to demonstrate theoretically and empirically that while the chronic savings-consumption imbalance is an important contributor to China’s huge trade surplus,the fundamental underlying contributor is the income structure and savings structure imbalance stemming from the disproportionate increase in retained earnings relative to stagnant wage bills.Corporate retained earnings keep growing rapidly because corporate profit margins are"overstated"and state-owned enterprises"do not pay dividends."Only when these issues are resolved at the institutional level can the savings rate be reduced to an appropriate level with domestic demand boosted to eliminate excess trade surpluses and fundamentally fix internal and external economic imbalances.展开更多
Different from other methodologies for the forecasting of China＇s economic growth rate, this paper forecast of future potential growth rates from the end of China＇s demographic dividends, and then identified it as a...Different from other methodologies for the forecasting of China＇s economic growth rate, this paper forecast of future potential growth rates from the end of China＇s demographic dividends, and then identified it as a growth target. Official promulgation of non-binding targets will guide social expectation, assist in government policy-making, boost confidence in consumers, and provide guidance for producers and investors. Based on our estimation results, we suggest that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, a GDP growth target between 6. 5% and 7% would be appropriate.展开更多
文摘Reform dividends refer to the improvements in certain economic actors under the new, reformed institutional system as compared against the original system. Reform leads to greater economic growth potential by changing the institutional environment, which in turn increases the vibrancy and innovation of economic actors. The most economically convenient system is also in actuality the most effective market economic system. Reform based on public and collective actions should be based on the following principle： if institutional reform is evolving towards the enhancement of economic convenience, then we can be sure that reform is embarking on the path of releasing dividends.
基金the National Social Sciences Foundation Program "A Study on the Effects of Changing Demographic Structure on China's Economic Deceleration and Countermeasures"
文摘Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020). China's economic growth sustainability hinges upon its transition from the previous dependence on demographic dividend to the future reform dividend. In the growth accounting equation, we have simulated various reform initiatives and arrived at the following findings. First, although both the labor participation rate and TFP can increase China's potential growth rate, the former will only achieve a short-term growth effect, which will diminish in the long run. By contrast, the growth effect of TFP demonstrates the tendency of continuous increase. This further indicates that China's economic growth will increasingly rely on TFP improvement instead of traditional factor input. Second, different from the diminishing growth effect of enrolment rate, training may play a pivotal role in human capital development to significantly enhance potential growth rates. Third, if all reform initiatives can achieve their expected effects, integrated reform dividends may reach one or two percentage points of China's potential growth rate.
文摘China＇s extraordinary performance of economic growth is not without source. It has simultaneously resulted from the profound reform and wide opening-up as a sufficient condition and from demographic dividend as a necessary condition. The characteristic of consolidating reform, opening-up, growth, and sharing in China makes its experience an inclusive development. This paper looks back at China＇s reform process to reveal how growth potentials have been translated into actual growth through factors accumulation and resources reallocation. It then points out that as the stage of dual economy development has altered and as a result demographic dividend has disappeared, the sustainable growth of the Chinese economy is facing big challenges. This paper concludes by proposing policy suggestions for deepening reform.
基金Sponsored by Special Project of Fujian Provincial Department of Finance(K81MLV05A)
文摘Taking Ningde City as an example,this paper analyzed current situations of construction and comprehensive reform of small towns.It further discussed existing problems and causes in the construction and comprehensive reform of small towns.Finally,it came up with pertinent recommendations,in the hope of providing some valuable references for construction and comprehensive reform of small towns in Ningde City.
基金funded and supported by the China Reform Foundation and the Ministry of Commerce
文摘China’s ballooning current account surplus has caused a plethora of adverse effects on the healthy development of its economy.Based on an in-depth analysis of the contributory factors to the swelling current account surplus,this paper purports to demonstrate theoretically and empirically that while the chronic savings-consumption imbalance is an important contributor to China’s huge trade surplus,the fundamental underlying contributor is the income structure and savings structure imbalance stemming from the disproportionate increase in retained earnings relative to stagnant wage bills.Corporate retained earnings keep growing rapidly because corporate profit margins are"overstated"and state-owned enterprises"do not pay dividends."Only when these issues are resolved at the institutional level can the savings rate be reduced to an appropriate level with domestic demand boosted to eliminate excess trade surpluses and fundamentally fix internal and external economic imbalances.
文摘Different from other methodologies for the forecasting of China＇s economic growth rate, this paper forecast of future potential growth rates from the end of China＇s demographic dividends, and then identified it as a growth target. Official promulgation of non-binding targets will guide social expectation, assist in government policy-making, boost confidence in consumers, and provide guidance for producers and investors. Based on our estimation results, we suggest that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, a GDP growth target between 6. 5% and 7% would be appropriate.
