Temperature extremes over rapidly urbanizing regions with high population densities have been scrutinized due to their severe impacts on human safety and economics.First of all,the performance of the regional climate ...Temperature extremes over rapidly urbanizing regions with high population densities have been scrutinized due to their severe impacts on human safety and economics.First of all,the performance of the regional climate model RegCM4 with a hydrostatic or non-hydrostatic dynamic core in simulating seasonal temperature and temperature extremes was evaluated over the historical period of 1991–99 at a 12-km spatial resolution over China and a 3-km resolution over the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei(JJJ)region,a typical urban agglomeration of China.Simulations of spatial distributions of temperature extremes over the JJJ region using RegCM4 with hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic cores showed high spatial correlations of more than 0.8 with the observations.Under a warming climate,temperature extremes of annual maximum daily temperature(TXx)and summer days(SU)in China and the JJJ region showed obvious increases by the end of the 21st century while there was a general reduction in frost days(FD).The ensemble of RegCM4 with different land surface components was used to examine population exposure to temperature extremes over the JJJ region.Population exposure to temperature extremes was found to decrease in 2091−99 relative to 1991−99 over the majority of the JJJ region due to the joint impacts of increases in temperature extremes over the JJJ and population decreases over the JJJ region,except for downtown areas.Furthermore,changes in population exposure to temperature extremes were mainly dominated by future population changes.Finally,we quantified changes in exposure to temperature extremes with temperature increase over the JJJ region.This study helps to provide relevant policies to respond future climate risks over the JJJ region.展开更多
CO_(2)is one of the most important greenhouse gases(GHGs)in the earth’s atmosphere.Since the industrial era,anthropogenic activities have emitted excessive quantities of GHGs into the atmosphere,resulting in climate ...CO_(2)is one of the most important greenhouse gases(GHGs)in the earth’s atmosphere.Since the industrial era,anthropogenic activities have emitted excessive quantities of GHGs into the atmosphere,resulting in climate warming since the 1950s and leading to an increased frequency of extreme weather and climate events.In 2020,China committed to striving for carbon neutrality by 2060.This commitment and China’s consequent actions will result in significant changes in global and regional anthropogenic carbon emissions and therefore require timely,comprehensive,and objective monitoring and verification support(MVS)systems.The MVS approach relies on the top-down assimilation and inversion of atmospheric CO_(2)concentrations,as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)Inventory Guidelines in 2019.However,the regional high-resolution assimilation and inversion method is still in its initial stage of development.Here,we have constructed an inverse system for carbon sources and sinks at the kilometer level by coupling proper orthogonal decomposition(POD)with four-dimensional variational(4DVar)data assimilation based on the weather research and forecasting-greenhouse gas(WRF-GHG)model.Our China Carbon Monito ring and Verification Support at the Regional level(CCMVS-R)system can continuously assimilate information on atmospheric CO_(2)and other related information and realize the inversion of regional and local anthropogenic carbon emissions and natural terrestrial ecosystem carbon exchange.Atmospheric CO_(2)data were collected from six ground-based monito ring sites in Shanxi Province,China to verify the inversion effect of regio nal anthropogenic carbon emissions by setting ideal and real experiments using a two-layer nesting method(at 27 and 9 km).The uncertainty of the simulated atmospheric CO_(2)decreased significantly,with a root-mean-square error of CO_(2)concentration values between the ideal value and the simulated after assimilation was close to 0.The total anthropogenic carbon emissions in Shanxi Province in 2019 from the assimilated inversions were approximately 28.6%(17%-38%)higher than the mean of five emission inventories using the bottomup method,showing that the top-down CCMVS-R system can obtain more comprehensive information on anthropogenic carbon emissions.展开更多
Multi-year experiments are conducted using the most recent version of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics regional climate model RegCM4(version 4.7) to customize its performance over Southeast...Multi-year experiments are conducted using the most recent version of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics regional climate model RegCM4(version 4.7) to customize its performance over Southeast Asia - a region with few RCMs applied to date. The model is driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis data at a grid spacing of 25 km using the CORDEX(Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) Southeast Asia domain. The authors focus on comparing the convection schemes of Emanuel and Tiedtke(Tiedtke-1) and Tiedtke with effects of sea surface evaporation introduced(Tiedtke-2). The authors find that, for temperature over land, the model shows reasonable performance in reproducing the present-day climatology in both December–January–February(DJF) and June–July–August(JJA) in all the experiments. Meanwhile, cold biases prevail in both seasons, although portions of warm bias exist in DJF. For precipitation, the spatial pattern and amount, as well as seasonal evolution, are in general reproduced well in the experiments.Better performances of Tiedtke-1 and Tiedtke-2 are evident compared to Emanuel, particularly over ocean. Thereby, the optimal configuration of Reg CM4.7 for future climate change simulations over the region is identified as using the Tiedtke scheme with spray effects considered, along with the default settings for other physical parameterizations.展开更多
in the latest version of the international Centre for Theoretical Physics＇ regional climate model, RegCM4, CLM was introduced as a new land surface scheme. The performance over China of RegCM4-CLM with different conv...in the latest version of the international Centre for Theoretical Physics＇ regional climate model, RegCM4, CLM was introduced as a new land surface scheme. The performance over China of RegCM4-CLM with different convection schemes is analyzed in this study, based on a series of short- term experiments.The model is driven by ERA-Interim data at a grid spacing of 25 km.The convection schemes employed are： Emanuel; Grell; Emanuel over land and Grell over ocean; Grell over land and Emanuel over ocean; and Tiedtke. The simulated mean surface air temperature and precipitation in December-February-January and June-July-August are compared against observation. In general, better performance of Emanuel is found both for temperature and precipitation, and in both seasons. Thus, the model physics of CLM and Emanuel for the land surface processes and convection, respectively, are recommended for further application of RegCM4 over the China region. The de^ciencies that remain in the model arealso outlined and discussed.展开更多
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42075162)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2019YFA0606903)the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project“Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility”(EarthLab).
文摘Temperature extremes over rapidly urbanizing regions with high population densities have been scrutinized due to their severe impacts on human safety and economics.First of all,the performance of the regional climate model RegCM4 with a hydrostatic or non-hydrostatic dynamic core in simulating seasonal temperature and temperature extremes was evaluated over the historical period of 1991–99 at a 12-km spatial resolution over China and a 3-km resolution over the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei(JJJ)region,a typical urban agglomeration of China.Simulations of spatial distributions of temperature extremes over the JJJ region using RegCM4 with hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic cores showed high spatial correlations of more than 0.8 with the observations.Under a warming climate,temperature extremes of annual maximum daily temperature(TXx)and summer days(SU)in China and the JJJ region showed obvious increases by the end of the 21st century while there was a general reduction in frost days(FD).The ensemble of RegCM4 with different land surface components was used to examine population exposure to temperature extremes over the JJJ region.Population exposure to temperature extremes was found to decrease in 2091−99 relative to 1991−99 over the majority of the JJJ region due to the joint impacts of increases in temperature extremes over the JJJ and population decreases over the JJJ region,except for downtown areas.Furthermore,changes in population exposure to temperature extremes were mainly dominated by future population changes.Finally,we quantified changes in exposure to temperature extremes with temperature increase over the JJJ region.This study helps to provide relevant policies to respond future climate risks over the JJJ region.
基金supported by the General Project of Top-Design of Multi-Scale Nature-Social ModelsData Support and Decision Support System for NSFC Carbon Neutrality Major Project(42341202)the Basic Scientific Research Fund of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2021Z014)。
文摘CO_(2)is one of the most important greenhouse gases(GHGs)in the earth’s atmosphere.Since the industrial era,anthropogenic activities have emitted excessive quantities of GHGs into the atmosphere,resulting in climate warming since the 1950s and leading to an increased frequency of extreme weather and climate events.In 2020,China committed to striving for carbon neutrality by 2060.This commitment and China’s consequent actions will result in significant changes in global and regional anthropogenic carbon emissions and therefore require timely,comprehensive,and objective monitoring and verification support(MVS)systems.The MVS approach relies on the top-down assimilation and inversion of atmospheric CO_(2)concentrations,as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)Inventory Guidelines in 2019.However,the regional high-resolution assimilation and inversion method is still in its initial stage of development.Here,we have constructed an inverse system for carbon sources and sinks at the kilometer level by coupling proper orthogonal decomposition(POD)with four-dimensional variational(4DVar)data assimilation based on the weather research and forecasting-greenhouse gas(WRF-GHG)model.Our China Carbon Monito ring and Verification Support at the Regional level(CCMVS-R)system can continuously assimilate information on atmospheric CO_(2)and other related information and realize the inversion of regional and local anthropogenic carbon emissions and natural terrestrial ecosystem carbon exchange.Atmospheric CO_(2)data were collected from six ground-based monito ring sites in Shanxi Province,China to verify the inversion effect of regio nal anthropogenic carbon emissions by setting ideal and real experiments using a two-layer nesting method(at 27 and 9 km).The uncertainty of the simulated atmospheric CO_(2)decreased significantly,with a root-mean-square error of CO_(2)concentration values between the ideal value and the simulated after assimilation was close to 0.The total anthropogenic carbon emissions in Shanxi Province in 2019 from the assimilated inversions were approximately 28.6%(17%-38%)higher than the mean of five emission inventories using the bottomup method,showing that the top-down CCMVS-R system can obtain more comprehensive information on anthropogenic carbon emissions.
基金This research was jointly supported by the Strategic Priority Research Programme of Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number Y86101|601]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41675103 and 41861144015].
文摘Multi-year experiments are conducted using the most recent version of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics regional climate model RegCM4(version 4.7) to customize its performance over Southeast Asia - a region with few RCMs applied to date. The model is driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis data at a grid spacing of 25 km using the CORDEX(Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) Southeast Asia domain. The authors focus on comparing the convection schemes of Emanuel and Tiedtke(Tiedtke-1) and Tiedtke with effects of sea surface evaporation introduced(Tiedtke-2). The authors find that, for temperature over land, the model shows reasonable performance in reproducing the present-day climatology in both December–January–February(DJF) and June–July–August(JJA) in all the experiments. Meanwhile, cold biases prevail in both seasons, although portions of warm bias exist in DJF. For precipitation, the spatial pattern and amount, as well as seasonal evolution, are in general reproduced well in the experiments.Better performances of Tiedtke-1 and Tiedtke-2 are evident compared to Emanuel, particularly over ocean. Thereby, the optimal configuration of Reg CM4.7 for future climate change simulations over the region is identified as using the Tiedtke scheme with spray effects considered, along with the default settings for other physical parameterizations.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[41375104]the Climate Change Specific Fund of China[CCSF201509]
文摘in the latest version of the international Centre for Theoretical Physics＇ regional climate model, RegCM4, CLM was introduced as a new land surface scheme. The performance over China of RegCM4-CLM with different convection schemes is analyzed in this study, based on a series of short- term experiments.The model is driven by ERA-Interim data at a grid spacing of 25 km.The convection schemes employed are： Emanuel; Grell; Emanuel over land and Grell over ocean; Grell over land and Emanuel over ocean; and Tiedtke. The simulated mean surface air temperature and precipitation in December-February-January and June-July-August are compared against observation. In general, better performance of Emanuel is found both for temperature and precipitation, and in both seasons. Thus, the model physics of CLM and Emanuel for the land surface processes and convection, respectively, are recommended for further application of RegCM4 over the China region. The de^ciencies that remain in the model arealso outlined and discussed.
