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High-Resolution Projections of Mean and Extreme Precipitation over China by Two Regional Climate Models 被引量:1
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作者 Zhiyu JIANG Zhan TIAN +4 位作者 Guangtao DONG Laixiang SUN Peiqun ZHANG Erasmo BUONOMO Dongli FAN 《Journal of Meteorological Research》 SCIE CSCD 2020年第5期965-985,共21页
In this study, we employ two regional climate models(RCMs or RegCMs), which are RegCM4 and PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies), with a horizontal grid spacing of 25 km, to simulate the precipitation... In this study, we employ two regional climate models(RCMs or RegCMs), which are RegCM4 and PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies), with a horizontal grid spacing of 25 km, to simulate the precipitation dynamics across China for the baseline climate of 1981–2010 and two future climates of 2031–2060 and 2061–2090. The global climate model(GCM)—Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth Systems(HadGEM2-ES) is used to drive the two RCMs. The results of baseline simulations show that the two RCMs can correct the obvious underestimation of light rain below 5 mm day^-1 and the overestimation of precipitation above 5 mm day^-1 in Northwest China and the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, as being produced by the driving GCM. While PRECIS outperforms RegCM4 in simulating annual precipitation and wet days in several sub-regions of Northwest China, its underperformance shows up in eastern China. For extreme precipitation, the two RCMs provide a more accurate simulation of continuous wet days(CWD) with reduced biases and more realistic spatial patterns compared to their driving GCM. For other extreme precipitation indices, the RCM simulations show limited benefit except for an improved performance in some localized regions. The future projections of the two RCMs show an increase in the annual precipitation amount and the intensity of extreme precipitation events in most regions. Most areas of Southeast China will experience fewer number of wet days, especially in summer, but more precipitation per wet day(≥ 30 mm day^-1). By contrast, number of wet days will increase in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and some areas of northern China. The increase in both the maximum precipitation for five consecutive days and the regional extreme precipitation will lead to a higher risk of increased flooding. The findings of this study can facilitate the efforts of climate service institutions and government agencies to improve climate services and to make climate-smart decisions. 展开更多
关键词 climate change extreme precipitation dynamical downscaling regional climate models(RCMs) Coordinated regional Downscaling Experiment(CORDEX)
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An assessment of precipitation and surface air temperature over China by regional climate models
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作者 Xueyuan WANG Jianping TANG +1 位作者 Xiaorui NIU Shuyu WANG 《Frontiers of Earth Science》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2016年第4期644-661,共18页
An analysis of a 20-year summer time simulation of present-day climate (1989-2008) over China using four regional climate models coupled with different land surface models is carried out. The climatic means, interan... An analysis of a 20-year summer time simulation of present-day climate (1989-2008) over China using four regional climate models coupled with different land surface models is carried out. The climatic means, interannual variability, linear trends, and extremes are examined, with focus on precipitation and near surface air temperature. The models are able to reproduce the basic features of the observed summer mean precipitation and temperature over China and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. Overall, the model performance is better for temperature than that of precipitation. The models reasonably grasp the major anomalies and standard deviations over China and the five subregions studied. The models generally reproduce the spatial pattern of high interannual variability over wet regions, and low varia- bility over the dry regions. The models also capture well the variable temperature gradient increase to the north by latitude. Both the observed and simulated linear trend of precipitation shows a drying tendency over the Yangtze River Basin and wetting over South China. The models capture well the relatively small temperature trends in large areas of China. The models reasonably simulate the characteristics of extreme precipitation indices of heavy rain days and heavy precipitation fraction. Most of the models also performed well in capturing both the sign and magnitude of the daily maximum and minimum tempera- tures over China. 展开更多
关键词 regional climate model interannual variation trend EXTREMES
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Multi-year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model (RegCM_NCC). Part Ⅰ: Sensitivity Study 被引量:39
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作者 丁一汇 史学丽 +6 位作者 刘一鸣 刘艳 李清泉 钱永甫 苗蔓倩 翟国庆 高昆 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2006年第3期323-341,共19页
A modified version of the NCAR/RegCM2 has been developed at the National Climate Center (NCC), China Meteorological Administration, through a series of sensitivity experiments and multi-year simulations and hindcast... A modified version of the NCAR/RegCM2 has been developed at the National Climate Center (NCC), China Meteorological Administration, through a series of sensitivity experiments and multi-year simulations and hindcasts, with a special emphasis on the adequate choice of physical parameterization schemes suitable for the East Asian monsoon climate. This regional climate model is nested with the NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM to make an experimental seasonal prediction for China and East Asia. The four-year (2001 to 2004) prediction results are encouraging. This paper is the first part of a two-part paper, and it mainly describes the sensitivity study of the physical process paraxneterization represented in the model. The systematic errors produced by the different physical parameterization schemes such as the land surface processes, convective precipitation, cloud-radiation transfer process, boundary layer process and large-scale terrain features have been identified based on multi-year and extreme flooding event simulations. A number of comparative experiments has shown that the mass flux scheme (MFS) and Betts-Miller scheme (BM) for convective precipitation, the LPMI (land surface process model I) and LPMII (land surface process model Ⅱ) for the land surface process, the CCM3 radiation transfer scheme for cloud-radiation transfer processes, the TKE (turbulent kinetic energy) scheme for the boundary layer processes and the topography treatment schemes for the Tibetan Plateau are suitable for simulations and prediction of the East Asia monsoon climate in rainy seasons. Based on the above sensitivity study, a modified version of the RegCM2 (RegCM_NCC) has been set up for climate simulations and seasonal predictions. 展开更多
关键词 regional climate model sensitivity experiment physical process parameterization MEI-YU
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Multi-Year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model (RegCM_NCC) Part Ⅱ:The Experimental Seasonal Prediction 被引量:27
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作者 丁一汇 刘一鸣 +3 位作者 史学丽 李清泉 李巧萍 刘艳 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2006年第4期487-503,共17页
A nested regional climate model has been experimentally used in the seasonal prediction at the China National Climate Center (NCC) since 2001. The NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM (CGCM... A nested regional climate model has been experimentally used in the seasonal prediction at the China National Climate Center (NCC) since 2001. The NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM (CGCM) provides the boundary and initial conditions for driving the regional climate model (RegCM_NCC). The latter has a 60-km horizontal resolution and improved physical parameterization schemes including the mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme, the turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme (TKE) and an improved land process model (LPM). The large-scale terrain features such as the Tibetan Plateau are included in the larger domain to produce the topographic forcing on the rain-producing systems. A sensitivity study of the East Asian climate with regard to the above physical processes has been presented in the first part of the present paper. This is the second part, as a continuation of Part Ⅰ. In order to verify the performance of the nested regional climate model, a ten-year simulation driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets has been made to explore the performance of the East Asian climate simulation and to identify the model's systematic errors. At the same time, comparative simulation experiments for 5 years between the RegCM2 and RegCM_NCC have been done to further understand their differences in simulation performance. Also, a ten-year hindcast (1991-2000) for summer (June-August), the rainy season in China, has been undertaken. The preliminary results have shown that the RegCM_NCC is capable of predicting the major seasonal rain belts. The best predicted regions with high anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) are located in the eastern part of West China, in Northeast China and in North China, where the CGCM has maximum prediction skill as well. This fact may reflect the importance of the largescale forcing. One significant improvement of the prediction derived from RegCM_NCC is the increase of ACC in the Yangtze River valley where the CGCM has a very low, even a negative, ACC. The reason behind this improvement is likely to be related to the more realistic representation of the large-scale terrain features of the Tibetan Plateau. Presumably, many rain-producing systems may be generated over or near the Tibetan Plateau and may then move eastward along the Yangtze River basin steered by upper-level westerly airflow, thus leading to enhancement of rainfalls in the mid and lower basins of the Yangtze River. The real-time experimental predictions for summer in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 by using this nested RegCM-NCC were made. The results are basically reasonable compared with the observations. 展开更多
关键词 regional climate model SIMULATION HINDCAST PREDICTION
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Impacts of Upper Tropospheric Cooling upon the Late Spring Drought in East Asia Simulated by a Regional Climate Model 被引量:8
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作者 辛晓歌 Zhaoxin LI +1 位作者 宇如聪 周天军 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2008年第4期555-562,共8页
Responses of late spring (21 April 20 May) rainfall to the upper tropospheric cooling over East Asia are investigated with a regional climate model based on Laboratoire de M6t6orologie Dynamique Zoom (LMDZ4-RCM). ... Responses of late spring (21 April 20 May) rainfall to the upper tropospheric cooling over East Asia are investigated with a regional climate model based on Laboratoire de M6t6orologie Dynamique Zoom (LMDZ4-RCM). A control experiment is performed with two runs driven by the mean ERA-40 data during 1958-1977 and 1981 2000, respectively. The model reproduces the major decadal-scale circulation changes in late spring over East Asia, including a cooling in the upper troposphere and an anomalous meridional cell. Accordingly, the precipitation decrease is also captured in the southeast of the upper-level cooling region. To quantify the role of the upper-level cooling in the drought mechanism, a sensitivity experiment is further conducted with the cooling imposed in the upper troposphere. It is demonstrated that the upper-level cooling can generate the anomalous meridional cell and consequently the drought to the southeast of the cooling center. Therefore, upper tropospheric cooling should have played a dominant role in the observed late spring drought over Southeast China in recent decades. 展开更多
关键词 Southeast China spring drought inter-decadal variability regional climate modeling
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Study on the Effects of Land Surface Heterogeneities in Temperature and Moisture on Annual Scale Regional Climate Simulation 被引量:4
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作者 曾新民 刘金波 +3 位作者 马柱国 宋帅 席朝笠 王汉杰 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2010年第1期151-163,共13页
The "combined approach", which is suitable to represent subgrid land surface heterogeneity in both interpatch and intra-patch variabilities, is employed in the BiOsphere/Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) as a land... The "combined approach", which is suitable to represent subgrid land surface heterogeneity in both interpatch and intra-patch variabilities, is employed in the BiOsphere/Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) as a land surface component of the regional climate model RegCM3 to consider the heterogeneities in temperature and moisture at the land surface, and then annual-scale simulations for 5 years (1988-1992) were conducted. Results showed that on the annual scale, the model's response to the heterogeneities is quite sensitive, and that the effect of the temperature heterogeneity (TH) is more pronounced than the moisture heterogeneity (MH). On the intraannual scale, TH may lead to more (less) precipitation in warm (cold) seasons, and hence lead to larger intraannual variability in precipitation; the major MH effects may be lagged by about 1 month during the warm, rainy seasons, inducing -6% more precipitation for some sub-regions. Additionally, the modeled climate for the northern sub-regions shows larger sensitivities to the land surface heterogeneities than those for the southern sub-regions. Since state-of-art land surface models seldom account for surface intra-patch variabilities, this study emphasizes the importance of including this kind of variability in the land surface models. 展开更多
关键词 regional climate model heterogeneities in temperature and moisture simulation on the annual scale sensitivity
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Future Precipitation Extremes in China under Climate Change and Their Physical Quantification Based on a Regional Climate Model and CMIP5 Model Simulations 被引量:5
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作者 Peihua QIN Zhenghui XIE +2 位作者 Jing ZOU Shuang LIU Si CHEN 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2021年第3期460-479,共20页
The atmospheric water holding capacity will increase with temperature according to Clausius-Clapeyron scaling and affects precipitation.The rates of change in future precipitation extremes are quantified with changes ... The atmospheric water holding capacity will increase with temperature according to Clausius-Clapeyron scaling and affects precipitation.The rates of change in future precipitation extremes are quantified with changes in surface air temperature.Precipitation extremes in China are determined for the 21st century in six simulations using a regional climate model,RegCM4,and 17 global climate models that participated in CMIP5.First,we assess the performance of the CMIP5 models and RCM runs in their simulation of extreme precipitation for the current period(RF:1982-2001).The CMIP5 models and RCM results can capture the spatial variations of precipitation extremes,as well as those based on observations:OBS and XPP.Precipitation extremes over four subregions in China are predicted to increase in the mid-future(MF:2039-58)and far-future(FF:2079-98)relative to those for the RF period based on both the CMIP5 ensemble mean and RCM ensemble mean.The secular trends in the extremes of the CMIP5 models are predicted to increase from 2008 to 2058,and the RCM results show higher interannual variability relative to that of the CMIP5 models.Then,we quantify the increasing rates of change in precipitation extremes in the MF and FF periods in the subregions of China with the changes in surface air temperature.Finally,based on the water vapor equation,changes in precipitation extremes in China for the MF and FF periods are found to correlate positively with changes in the atmospheric vertical wind multiplied by changes in surface specific humidity(significant at the p<0.1 level). 展开更多
关键词 precipitation extremes regional climate model CMIP5 models
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Implementation of a Surface Runoff Model with Horton and Dunne Mechanisms into the Regional Climate Model RegCM_NCC 被引量:3
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作者 史学丽 谢正辉 +1 位作者 刘一鸣 杨宏伟 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2007年第5期750-764,共15页
A surface runoff parameterization scheme that dynamically represents both Horton and Dunne runoff generation mechanisms within a model grid cell together with a consideration of the subgrid-scaie soil heterogeneity, i... A surface runoff parameterization scheme that dynamically represents both Horton and Dunne runoff generation mechanisms within a model grid cell together with a consideration of the subgrid-scaie soil heterogeneity, is implemented into the National Climate Center regional climate model (RegCM_NCC). The effects of the modified surface runoff scheme on RegCMANCC performance are tested with an abnormal heavy rainfall process which occurred in summer 1998. Simulated results show that the model with the original surface runoff scheme (noted as CTL) basically captures the spatial pattern of precipitation, circulation and land surface variables, but generally overestimates rainfall compared to observations. The model with the new surface runoff scheme (noted as NRM) reasonably reproduces the distribution pattern of various variables and effectively diminishes the excessive precipitation in the CTL. The processes involved in the improvement of NRM-simulated rainfall may be as follows: with the new surface runoff scheme, simulated surface runoff is larger, soil moisture and evaporation (latent heat flux) are decreased, the available water into the atmosphere is decreased; correspondingly, the atmosphere is drier and rainfall is decreased through various processes. Therefore, the implementation of the new runoff scheme into the RegCMANCC has a significant effect on results at not only the land surface, but also the overlying atmosphere. 展开更多
关键词 surface runoff regional climate model PRECIPITATION water vapor
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Notes of Numerical Simulation of Summer Rainfall in China with a Regional Climate Model REMO 被引量:3
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作者 崔雪锋 黄刚 陈文 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2008年第6期999-1008,共10页
Regional climate models are major tools for regional climate simulation and their output are mostly used for climate impact studies. Notes are reported from a series of numerical simulations of summer rainfall in Chin... Regional climate models are major tools for regional climate simulation and their output are mostly used for climate impact studies. Notes are reported from a series of numerical simulations of summer rainfall in China with a regional climate model. Domain sizes and running modes are major foci. The results reveal that the model in forecast mode driven by "perfect" boundaries could reasonably represent the inter-annual differences: heavy rainfall along the Yangtze River in 1998 and dry conditions in 1997. Model simulation in climate mode differs to a greater extent from observation than that in forecast mode. This may be due to the fact that in climate mode it departs further from the driving fields and relies more on internal model dynamical processes. A smaller domain in climate mode outperforms a larger one. Further development of model parameterizations including dynamic vegetation are encouraged in future studies. 展开更多
关键词 regional climate model REMO summer rainfall in China running mode domain choice
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An Evaluation of RegCM3_CERES for Regional Climate Modeling in China 被引量:1
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作者 陈锋 谢正辉 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2013年第4期1187-1200,共14页
A 20-year simulation of regional climate over East Asia by the regional climate model RegCM3_CERES (Regional Climate Model version 3 coupled with the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis) was c... A 20-year simulation of regional climate over East Asia by the regional climate model RegCM3_CERES (Regional Climate Model version 3 coupled with the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis) was carried out and compared with observations and the original RegCM3 model to compre- hensively evaluate its performance in simulating the regional climate over continental China. The results showed that RegCM3_CERES reproduced the regional climate at a resolution of 60 km over China by using ERA40 data as the boundary conditions, albeit with some limitations. The model captured the basic char- acteristics of the East Asian circulation, the spatial distribution of mean precipitation and temperature, and the daily characteristics of precipitation and temperature. However, it underestimated both the intensity of the monsoon in the monsoonal area and precipitation in southern China, overestimated precipitation in northern China, and produced a systematic cold temperature bias over most of continental China. Despite these limitations, it was concluded that the RegCM3_CERES model is able to simulate the regional climate over continental China reasonably well. 展开更多
关键词 regional climate model model validation
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A Regional Climate Model Simulation of Summer Monsoon over East Asia: A Case Study of 1991 Flood in Yangtzee-Huai River Valley
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作者 魏和林 王维强 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 1998年第4期59-79,共21页
The evolution of summer monsoon over East Asia is the result of multi-scale interactions, including the large-scale subtropical high, upper level jet and regional-scale Meiyu front, vortex, and thermal heating. Region... The evolution of summer monsoon over East Asia is the result of multi-scale interactions, including the large-scale subtropical high, upper level jet and regional-scale Meiyu front, vortex, and thermal heating. Regional Climate Models should be a better way to simulate the summer monsoon evolution, because not only they can reflect the large-scale forcing through boundary condition, theirs high resolution can also catch regional-scale forcing in detail. To evaluate the ability of SUNYA-ReCM to simulate the evolution of the summer monsoon over East Asia especially in the extreme climate, a simulation of the East Asian flood that occurred during 1991 summer was performed. This simulation was driven by large-scale atmospheric background derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Tropic Ocean Global Atmospheric (TOGA) analysis. The model is capable of reproducing the major features of the monthly mean monsoon circulation, anomalous rainfall in the Yangtze-Huai River Valley and the two northward jumps of rainfall belt as well as the other large-scale components of the monsoon. The changes of the large-scale circulation during the evolution of summer monsoon are also well simulated, which include: (1) the wind direction changes from southeasterly to southwesterly in the South China Sea. (2) The northward shift of the upper westerly over East China and the Tibetan Plateau. (3) The northward shift of the western Pacific subtropic high at 500 hPa. The model also has a good simulation on the evolution of the regional-scale components of the monsoon, including Meiyu front and southwest (SW) vortex in Sichuan Basin. 展开更多
关键词 regional climate model Summer monsoon 1991 flood
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Atmospheric feedbacks on Arctic summer sea-ice anomalies in ensemble simulations of a coupled regional climate model
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作者 Annette RINKE Dorthe HANDORF +3 位作者 Wolfgang DORN Klaus DETHLOFF John C.MOORE Xiangdong ZHANG 《Advances in Polar Science》 2018年第3期156-164,共9页
Ensemble simulations with the Arctic coupled regional climate model HIRHAM-NAOSIM have been analyzed to investigate atmospheric feedbacks to September sea-ice anomalies in the Arctic in autumn and the following winter... Ensemble simulations with the Arctic coupled regional climate model HIRHAM-NAOSIM have been analyzed to investigate atmospheric feedbacks to September sea-ice anomalies in the Arctic in autumn and the following winter. Different "low- minus high ice" composites have been calculated using selected model runs and different periods. This approach allows us to investigate the robustness of the simulated regional atmospheric feedbacks to detected sea-ice anomalies. Since the position and strength of the September sea-ice anomaly varies between the different "low- minus high ice" composites, the related simulated atmospheric patterns in autumn differ depending on the specific surface heat flux forcing through the oceaaa-atmosphere interface. However, irrespective of those autumn differences, the regional atmospheric feedback in the following winter is rather insensitive to the applied compositing. Neither the selection of simulations nor the considered period impacts the results. The simulated consistent large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern show-s a wave-like pattern with positive pressure anomaly over the region of the Barents/Kara Seas and Scandinavia/western Russia ("Scandinavian-Ural blocking") and negative pressure anomaly over the East Siberian/Laptev Seas. 展开更多
关键词 Arctic climate atmosphere-sea ice feedback regional climate modeling Arctic atmosphere
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Influence of the Boundary Forcing on the Internal Variability of a Regional Climate Model
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作者 Kevin Sieck Daniela Jacob 《American Journal of Climate Change》 2016年第3期373-382,共11页
The internal variability of a ten-member ensemble of the regional climate model REMO over Europe is investigated. It is shown that the annual cycle of internal variability behaves differently compared to earlier studi... The internal variability of a ten-member ensemble of the regional climate model REMO over Europe is investigated. It is shown that the annual cycle of internal variability behaves differently compared to earlier studies that focused on other regions. To gain better insight into the dependence of the internal variability on the boundary forcing variability, a circulation type classification is performed on the forcing data. It can be shown that especially in the winter season internal variability is dependent on the circulation type included in the boundary forcing, whereas in the summer season the level and pattern of internal variability is rather independent from the circulation type of the driving field. It is concluded that for Europe the internal variability of REMO in winter is governed by circulation patterns related to the North-Atlantic Oscillation, whereas in summer local processes play a bigger role. 展开更多
关键词 regional climate Model Internal Variability Boundary Forcing Circulation Type Classification
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A Regional Climate Study of Heat Waves over the Iberian Peninsula
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作者 Hari Prasad Dasari Isaac Pozo +1 位作者 Francisco Ferri-Yánez Miguel B. Araújo 《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》 2014年第5期841-853,共13页
We present a regional climate simulation for the Iberian Peninsula for a 60-year period (1950-2009) using the WRF-ARW model with a focus on the simulation of summer maximum temperatures and associated extreme heat wav... We present a regional climate simulation for the Iberian Peninsula for a 60-year period (1950-2009) using the WRF-ARW model with a focus on the simulation of summer maximum temperatures and associated extreme heat waves. The WRF model was designed at a 5 km horizontal resolution on a 5-month (May-September) seasonal scale, for every year, during the study period with initial/boundary conditions derived from NCEP 2.5 degree reanalysis. The comparison of simulated mean summer seasonal maximums and mean maximums of June, July, and August months with the corresponding E-OBS data sets indicates that the model is able to characterize the spatial variation of magnitudes of temperature change over the Iberian Peninsula. The mean extreme heat wave conditions during the climate period 1950-2009 are well simulated and match the observations well. The regional scale simulations clearly show the propagation of intense heat waves from the south west to north east of Iberia. The WRF-ARW model also simulated well the general trend of increase in heat waves over most parts of the Iberian Peninsula during the study period 1950-2009. The characteristics of the most severe heat waves years 2003 and 2006 are also well simulated by the model. 展开更多
关键词 DOWNSCALING Heat Waves Iberian Peninsula regional climate Modelling
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A High-Resolution Modeling Strategy to Assess Impacts of Climate Change for Mesoamerica and the Caribbean
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作者 Robert Oglesby Clinton Rowe +12 位作者 Alfred Grunwaldt Ines Ferreira Franklyn Ruiz Jayaka Campbell Luis Alvarado Francisco Argenal Berta Olmedo Alejandro del Castillo Pilar Lopez Edwards Matos Yosef Nava Carlos Perez Joel Perez 《American Journal of Climate Change》 2016年第2期202-228,共27页
Mesoamerica and the Caribbean are low-latitude regions at risk for the effects of climate change. Global climate models provide large-scale assessment of climate drivers, but, at a horizontal resolution of 100 km, can... Mesoamerica and the Caribbean are low-latitude regions at risk for the effects of climate change. Global climate models provide large-scale assessment of climate drivers, but, at a horizontal resolution of 100 km, cannot resolve the effects of topography and land use as they impact the local temperature and precipitation that are keys to climate impacts. We developed a robust dynamical downscaling strategy that used the WRF regional climate model to downscale at 4 - 12 km resolution GCM results. Model verification demonstrates the need for such resolution of topography in order to properly simulate temperatures. Precipitation is more difficult to evaluate, being highly variable in time and space. Overall, a 36 km resolution is inadequate;12 km appears reasonable, especially in regions of low topography, but the 4 km resolution provides the best match with observations. This represents a tradeoff between model resolution and the computational effort needed to make simulations. A key goal is to provide climate change specialists in each country with the information they need to evaluate possible future climate change impacts. 展开更多
关键词 regional climate models Dynamical Downscaling Strategy Mesoamerica and Caribbean climate Change
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Characteristics of Anthropogenic Sulfate and Carbonaceous Aerosols over East Asia: Regional Modeling and Observation 被引量:2
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作者 Yan HUANG William L. CHAMEIDES +1 位作者 Qian TAN Robert E. DICKINSON 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2008年第6期946-959,共14页
The authors present spatial and temporal characteristics of anthropogenic sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols over East Asia using a 3-D coupled regional climate-chemistry-aerosol model, and compare the simulation with ... The authors present spatial and temporal characteristics of anthropogenic sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols over East Asia using a 3-D coupled regional climate-chemistry-aerosol model, and compare the simulation with the limited aerosol observations over the region. The aerosol module consists of SO2, SO4^2-, hydrophobic and hydrophilic black carbon (BC) and organic carbon compounds (OC), including emission, advections, dry and wet deposition, and chemical production and conversion. The simulated patterns of SO2 are closely tied to its emission rate, with sharp gradients between the highly polluted regions and more rural areas. Chemical conversion (especially in the aqueous phase) and dry deposition remove 60% and 30% of the total SO2 emission, respectively. The SO4^2- shows less horizontal gradient and seasonality than SO2, with wet deposition (60%) and export (27%) being two major sinks. Carbonaceous aerosols are spatially smoother than sulfur species. The aging process transforms more than 80% of hydrophobic BC and OC to hydrophilic components, which are removed by wet deposition (60%) and export (30%). The simulated spatial and seasonal SO4^2-, BC and OC aerosol concentrations and total aerosol optical depth are generally consistent with the observations in rural areas over East Asia, with lower bias in simulated OC aerosols, likely due to the underestimation of anthropogenic OC emissions and missing treatment of secondary organic carbon. The results suggest that our model is a useful tool for characterizing the anthropogenic aerosol cycle and for assessing its potential climatic and environmental effects in future studies. 展开更多
关键词 regional climate modeling anthropogenic emission sulfate aerosol black carbon and organic carbon East Asia
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Climate and Forecast Mode Simulations for Antarctica:Implications for Temperature and Wind 被引量:2
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作者 辛羽飞 Annette RINKE +3 位作者 卞林根 Klaus DETHLOFF 效存德 Moritz MIELKE 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2010年第6期1453-1472,共20页
Climate and forecast mode simulations with the regional climate model HIRlam-ECHAM(HIRHAM) are evaluated over a pan-Antarctic domain. The ability of the model to simulate temperature and wind profiles in the troposp... Climate and forecast mode simulations with the regional climate model HIRlam-ECHAM(HIRHAM) are evaluated over a pan-Antarctic domain. The ability of the model to simulate temperature and wind profiles in the troposphere is quantified by comparing its results with radiosonde data acquired from the Davis station for January and July 2007. Compared to the climate mode, the forecast mode was found to deliver improved results for temperature and wind simulations at the near surface and in the lower troposphere. The main remaining model bias found was the under-representation of low-level wind jets. Based on ensemble simulations, it is shown that a distinct internal variability is inherent in the climate mode simulations, and associated areas of reduced predictability over Antarctica are identified. 展开更多
关键词 regional climate model ANTARCTICA forecast mode climate mode
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Assessing the vulnerability of a forest ecosystem to climate change and variability in the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey:future evaluation 被引量:1
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作者 Murat Türkes Nebiye Musaoglu Orkan Ozcan 《Journal of Forestry Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2018年第5期1177-1186,共10页
This study evaluates the multifactorial spatial modelling used to assess vulnerability of the Du¨ zlerc?am?(Antalya) forest ecosystem to climate change.This was done to produce data,to develop tools to suppor... This study evaluates the multifactorial spatial modelling used to assess vulnerability of the Du¨ zlerc?am?(Antalya) forest ecosystem to climate change.This was done to produce data,to develop tools to support decisionmaking and the management of vulnerable Mediterranean forest ecosystems affected by climate change,and to increase the ability of these forest ecosystems to adapt to global change.Based on regionally averaged future climate assessments and projected climate indicators,both the study site and the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey will probably become associated with a drier,hotter,more continental and more water-deficient climate.This analysis holds true for all future scenarios,with the exception of RCP4.5 for the period from 2015 to 2030.However,the present dry-sub humid climate dominating this sub-region and the study area shows a potential for change towards more dry climatology and for it to become semiarid between 2031 and 2050 according to the RCP8.5 high emission scenario.All the observed and estimated results and assessments summarized in this study show clearly that the densest forest ecosystem in the southern part of the study site,characterized by mainly Mediterranean coniferous and some mixed forest and maquis vegetation,will very likely be influenced by medium and high degrees of vulnerability to future environmental degradation,climate change and variability. 展开更多
关键词 Forest ecosystem RCP scenarios regional climate model VULNERABILITY
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Assessment of the 2006-2012 Climatological Fields and Mesoscale Features from Regional Downscaling of CESM Data by WRF-Chem over Southeast Alaska
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作者 Nicole Molders Cindy L.Bruyère +1 位作者 Scott Gende Michael A.Pirhalla 《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》 2014年第4期589-613,共25页
This case study examined how well downscaling of Community Earth System Model (CESM) data can reproduce climatological conditions relevant for summer (JJA) air quality in Glacier Bay National Park. Climatology was det... This case study examined how well downscaling of Community Earth System Model (CESM) data can reproduce climatological conditions relevant for summer (JJA) air quality in Glacier Bay National Park. Climatology was determined from the meteorological results obtained by the Weather Research and Forecasting model inline coupled with chemistry (WRF-chem) when driven with CESM data of 2006-2012. The climatology of this experiment (EXP) was evaluated by climatology from gridded blended sea-wind speeds, CRU data, and 42 surface meteorology sites. The quality relative to known performance was assessed by comparison to climatology determined from WRF-chem control simulations driven with FNL analysis data (CON) in forecast mode. Compared to observations, the thermodynamic and dynamic performances of EXP showed similar shortcomings (dampened diurnal temperature range, overestimation of wind speed over land) as CON. Over water EXP wind-speed climatology JJA bias (simulated minus observed) was -0.7 m/s. With respect to the CRU data EXP biases in JJA 2m temperature, diurnal temperature range, relative humidity and accumulated precipitation were -1.1 K, -4.9 K, 13%, and 110 mm, respectively. The slightly warmer atmosphere in EXP compensated for deficiencies in the cloud schemes leading to better results for the number of wet days and accumulated precipitation than in CON. Downscaling captured known mesoscale responses important for regional climate in a similar way as CON. When using CESM forcing, lateral boundary effects expanded spatially farther into the domain than known for forcing by analysis data. Overall, climatologies obtained from downscaling for Southeast Alaska had similar skill than those derived from forecasts driven by analysis data. 展开更多
关键词 Evaluation regional climate Modeling DOWNSCALING Southeast Alaska WRF-Chem CESM
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Sensitivity Study of the RegCM4’s Surface Schemes in the Simulations of West Africa Climate
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作者 Adjon Anderson Kouassi Brahima Kone +5 位作者 Siélé Silue Alima Dajuma Toure E. N’datchoh Marcellin Adon Arona Diedhiou Véronique Yoboue 《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》 2022年第1期86-104,共19页
Two simulations of five years (2003-2007) were conducted with the Regional Climate models RegCM4, one coupled with Land surface models BATS and the other with CLM4.5 over West Africa, where simulated air temperature a... Two simulations of five years (2003-2007) were conducted with the Regional Climate models RegCM4, one coupled with Land surface models BATS and the other with CLM4.5 over West Africa, where simulated air temperature and precipitation were analyzed. The purpose of this study is to assess the performance of RegCM4 coupled with the new CLM4.5 Land</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">surface scheme and the standard one named BATS in order to find the best configuration of RegCM4 over West African. This study could improve our understanding of the sensitivity of land surface model in West Africa climate simulation, and provide relevant information to RegCM4 users. The results show fairly realistic restitution of West Africa’s climatology and indicate correlations of 0.60 to 0.82 between the simulated fields (BATS and CLM4.5) for precipitation. The substitution of BATS surface scheme by CLM4.5 in the model configuration, leads mainly to an improvement of precipitation over the Atlantic Ocean, however, the impact is not sufficiently noticeable over the continent. While the CLM4.5 experiment restores the seasonal cycles and spatial distribution, the biases increase for precipitation and temperature. Positive biases already existing with BATS are amplified over some sub-regions. This study concludes that temporal localization (seasonal effect), spatial distribution (grid points) and magnitude of precipitation and temperature (bias) are not simultaneously improved by CLM4.5. The introduction of the new land surface scheme CLM4.5, therefore, leads to a performance of the same order as that of BATS, albeit with a more detailed formulation. 展开更多
关键词 regional climate Model Land Surface Scheme West Africa climate REGCM Precipitation West African Monsoon Simulated Data
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