Effect of Counter-Gradient in the Computation of Turbulent Fluxes of Heat and Moisture in a Regional Model

The counter-gradient terms in the computations of turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture have been included in the PBL parameterization of a regional model for monsoon prediction. Results show that inclusion of counter-gradient terms has a marginal impact in the prediction of large scale monsoon circulation and rainfall rates.

Regional Agricultural Input-Output Model and Countermeasure for Production and Income Increase of Farmers in Southern Xinjiang,China

Agricultural input and output status in southern Xinjiang,China is introduced,such as lack of agricultural input,low level of agricultural modernization,excessive fertilizer use,serious damage of environment,shortage of water resources,tremendous pressure on ecological balance,insignificant economic and social benefits of agricultural production in southern Xinjiang,agriculture remaining a weak industry,agricultural economy as the economic subject of southern Xinjiang,and backward economic development of southern Xinjiang.Taking the Aksu area as an example,according to the input and output data in the years 2002-2007,input-output model about regional agriculture of the southern Xinjiang is established by principal component analysis.DPS software is used in the process of solving the model.Then,Eviews software is adopted to revise and test the model in order to analyze and evaluate the economic significance of the results obtained,and to make additional explanations of the relevant model.Since the agricultural economic output is seriously restricted in southern Xinjiang at present,the following countermeasures are put forward,such as adjusting the structure of agricultural land,improving the utilization ratio of land,increasing agricultural input,realizing agricultural modernization,rationally utilizing water resources,maintaining eco-environmental balance,enhancing the awareness of agricultural insurance,minimizing the risk and loss,taking the road of industrialization of characteristic agricultural products,and realizing the transfer of surplus labor force.

Assessment of the Biospheric Contribution to Surface Atmospheric CO_2 Concentrations over East Asia with a Regional Chemical Transport Model

A regional chemical transport model,RAMS-CMAQ,was employed to assess the impacts of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 exchange on seasonal variations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations over East Asia.Simulated CO2 concentrations were compared with observations at 12 surface stations and the comparison showed they were generally in good agreement.Both observations and simulations suggested that surface CO2 over East Asia features a summertime trough due to biospheric absorption,while in some urban areas surface CO2 has a distinct summer peak,which could be attributed to the strong impact from anthropogenic emissions.Analysis of the model results indicated that biospheric fluxes and fossil-fuel emissions are comparably important in shaping spatial distributions of CO2 near the surface over East Asia.Biospheric flux plays an important role in the prevailing spatial pattern of CO2 enhancement and reduction on the synoptic scale due to the strong seasonality of biospheric CO2 flux.The elevation of CO2 levels by the biosphere during winter was found to be larger than 5 ppm in North China and Southeast China,and during summertime a significant depletion （≥ 7 ppm） occurred in most areas,except for the Indo-China Peninsula where positive bioflux values were found.

TECHNIQUES OF CONSTRUCTING REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES: ACHIEVEMENTS

The development of any analytical method should have to experience at least four stages: its initial status, growth, mature and declining. However, although the regional input-output analysis has been widely applied for more than forty years, it is still one of the most important approach in regional economic analysis and forecast at present in the world. This is due to the never ended modifications and its great potentials. In this paper, we review the historical development of the regional input-output analysis.

Research of Airport-regional Economy System Based on System Dynamics

Research of airport＇ s influence on regional economy is conducted based on system dynamics, combining with input- output method and multiplier effect. SD model was used for visualizing, modeling and simulating airport-regional economy system behavior. Model validation using the example of the Xi＇ an airport proved model simulated system behavior accurately. Besides, the result of scenario development simulation provided a new perspective for the practice of airport management and policy-making.

Noah-MP陆面模式对干旱区不同下垫面水热通量模拟评估

基于干旱区张掖国家气候观象台2021年1月-2022年6月和大满灌区绿洲农田站2020年1-12月的观测数据,评估Noah-MP模式对干旱区荒漠和农田两种下垫面的水热通量的模拟性能。结果表明:Noah-MP模式模拟的干旱区荒漠下垫面辐射与观测值的相关系数均>0.98,泰勒评分>0.93。感热的泰勒评分(0.809)>潜热的泰勒评分(0.504),对辐射及湍流通量的变化特征、峰谷值与观测值总体一致,模拟效果较好。模拟的5 cm土壤湿度对降水过程有明显的响应,表现出明显的冷暖季差异,但其模拟性能仍有待改进。Noah-MP模式模拟的干旱区农田下垫面辐射通量及各层土壤温度的相关系数均>0.98,泰勒评分>0.58,模拟效果较理想。但模拟的潜热通量及各层土壤湿度较观测值偏低,尤其在生长季模拟性能不理想。Noah-MP模式对干旱区荒漠下垫面水热通量的模拟性能优于农田下垫面,优化和发展模式水文过程的参数化方案,在模式中考虑人为作用,是提高干旱区陆面过程模式模拟能力的重要方向。

基于贝叶斯模型平均的2003–2015年青海三江源地区地表蒸散发数据集

蒸散发(Evapotranspiration,ET)是陆地水、碳和能量交换的重要组成部分。基于不同模型和不同遥感数据估算的ET,存在不同程度的不确定性。贝叶斯模型平均(Bayesian model averaging,BMA)提供了降低不确定性的一种途径。本研究采用中国三江源地区水热通量观测数据,以ARTS、PT-JPL、MOD16和SSEBop遥感蒸散发产品为基础,进行了BMA集成研究,生成了三江源地区2003–2015年250 m空间分辨率的年均地表蒸散发数据集。通过验证各输入模型和BMA集成模型结果,发现基于BMA的ET与通量观测数据相关性达0.94,能够解释观测数据季节变化的89%,优于单个模型的性能。说明BMA模型集成能够整合不同模型内在优势,降低结果估算的不确定性,从而获得更可靠的估算结果。本数据集可为三江源区域水热变化研究和生态系统调节功能评估提供更精确的数据支持。

An operational two-layer remote sensing model to estimate surface flux in regional scale: Physical background

Based on the improved interaction mechanism of two-layer model, this paper proposed Pixel Component Arranging and Comparing Algorithm (PCACA) and theoretically positioning algorithm, estimated the true temperature of mixed pixel in four extreme points in combination with the measurements of dry and wet points in calibration fields and improved the reliability of positioning dry and wet line. A new two-layer energy-separation algorithm was proposed,which was simple and direct without resistance network parameters for each pixel. We also proposed a new thought about the effect of advection. The albedo of mixed pixel was also separated with PCACA. In combination with two-layer energy-separation algorithm, the net radiation of mixed pixel was separated to overcome the uncertainty of conventional energy-separation algorithm using Beer's Law. Through the validation of retrieval result, this method is proved to be feasible and operational. At the same time, the uncertainty of this algorithm was objectively analyzed.

Simulation and evaluation of 2-m temperature over Antarctica in polar regional climate model

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis ERA40,National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) 20th-century reanalysis,and three station observations along an Antarctic traverse from Zhongshan to Dome-A stations are used to assess 2-m temperature simulation skill of a regional climate model.This model(HIRHAM) is from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Germany.Results show:(1) The simulated multiyear averaged 2-m temperature field pattern is close to that of ERA40 and NCEP;(2) the cold bias relative to ERA40 over all of Antarctic regions is 1.8℃,and that to NCEP reaches 5.1℃;(3) bias of HIRHAM relative to ERA40 has seasonal variation,with a cold bias mainly in the summer,as much as 3.4℃.There is a small inland warm bias in autumn of 0.3℃.Further analysis reveals that the reason for the cold bias of 2-m temperature is that physical conditions of the near-surface boundary layer simulated by HIRHAM are different from observations:(1) During the summer,observations show that near-surface atmospheric stability conditions have both inversions and non-inversions,which is due to the existence of both positive and negative sensible heat fluxes,but HIRHAM almost always simulates a situation of inversion and negative sensible heat flux;(2) during autumn and winter,observed near-surface stability is almost always that of inversions,consistent with HIRHAM simulations.This partially explains the small bias during autumn and winter.

广州地区光化辐射通量与辐照度的特征

应用NCARTUV辐射模式与地表实际观测分析了理论上广州地区地表可获得的最强光化辐射通量、辐照度及其波谱变化特征与月、日变化特征,计算与观测的差异用于评估气溶胶对紫外辐射通量的作用.结果表明,光化辐射通量与辐照度均具有正弦曲线的日变化特征,但光化辐射通量的正弦波形较辐照度的更为宽广,其辐射强度随太阳天顶角的增加下降幅度也更为缓慢;光化辐射中的总能量可见光谱区约占86%,紫外谱区仅占约14%;理论计算与实际观测表明,不同监测波段范围的紫外辐射表,虽然其标识均为监测UVA或UVB的辐射,但差异明显;广州地区的气溶胶污染显著影响紫外辐射通量.由于紫外辐射通量是影响对流层臭氧生产力的关键因子,有必要更加深入地认识广州地区气溶胶与紫外辐射通量的相互作用.

利用区域尺度气象模式模拟黑河地区地表能量通量的研究

应用中尺度区域模式RAMS(the regional atmospheric model system),在40余组不同参数的条件下模拟中国干旱半干旱黑河地区的地表能量通量和土壤温度特征,并以此探索模式在干旱半干旱地区的适用性。为了证明模拟结果的准确性和模式的稳定性,模拟连续运行30天,其中包含晴好和阴雨的天气过程。模拟结果表明:即使使用较为可靠的NECP再分析气压层资料和实地探测资料,进行初始场和参数的输入,RAMS的默认设置也很难较为合理地反演出地表能量通量,只有合理地调整好其土壤特征参数,RAMS才能得到与实测资料符合得较好的结果。土壤特征参数对模拟结果影响较大,影响因子的重要性依次为:土壤含水量、土壤层总厚度、土壤温度。

基于陆面模式Noah-MP的不同参数化方案在半干旱区的适用性

针对陆面模式Noah-MP对兰州大学半干旱气候与环境观测站(SACOL)2009年8月地表热通量模拟值偏差大的问题,通过分析相关物理过程和模拟试验来探究偏差的来源,并确定合适的参数化方案:采用Chen97方案计算感热输送系数可以改善感热通量的模拟;采用Jarvis气孔阻抗方案能增大植被蒸腾,改进模式对潜热通量的模拟效果,同时也使热通量在感热和潜热间的分配比例合理;采用LP92方案可减小土壤蒸发阻抗并有利于土壤蒸发,使得模式对潜热通量的模拟效果变好。不同参数化方案的组合试验表明:同时采用2组或3组新的参数化方案组合可以进一步减小模拟的地表感热和潜热通量的均方根误差,但是土壤湿度和温度的模拟效果并没有同步改善。

修正的质量通量积云对流方案及其模拟试验研究I:方案介绍及对1991年洪涝过程的模拟

文中在综合比较各类积云对流参数化方案优缺点的基础上 ,主要参考陈伯民等修正的ECMWF质量通量积云参数化方案 ,对其进行简化和修改 ,发展了一个质量通量积云对流参数化方案 ,文中表示为 MFS(Mass Flux Scheme)。MFS是一种综合型的方案 ,既考虑了大尺度水汽辐合的重要性 ,又考虑了积云中的上升运动、下沉运动、环境中的补偿下沉运动 ,以及卷入、卷出和蒸发等 ,用总体云模式来描述积云与环境的相互作用 ,同时考虑了深对流和浅对流。将 MFS植入 NCAR区域气候模式 Reg CM2中 ,对 1 991年 5～ 7月江淮地区特大降水过程的夏季风气候特征和变化进行了模拟 ,并与 NCAR Reg CM2选用 Kuo方案 ,在同样初、边值条件和其它物理过程选择下的模拟结果进行了对比分析。分析结果表明 ,植入 MFS后的模式能够模拟这次极端的降水气候事件。在某些方面 ,如地表气温 ,降水的模拟上 ,植入

铁磁构件局部缺陷漏磁模型与实验验证

根据矩形槽磁偶极子分析模型,结合圆柱铁磁金属构件的几何特征,建立了圆柱铁磁构件的漏磁场分析模型;针对圆柱铁磁构件表面任意探测点,从理论上给出了地磁场、构件母体磁场和局部缺陷产生的漏磁场数学解析表达式;对圆柱铁磁构件的漏磁模型进行软件仿真研究,并利用实验室漏磁检测装置对有明显局部缺陷区域的圆柱铁磁构件进行了测试;最后对软件仿真结果和实验检测结果进行对比分析,结果表明:论文提出的模型和解析表达式作为金属构件局部缺陷区域的漏磁场模型和计算公式是基本适用的。

土地利用/覆盖变化对中国不同季节气温的影响

近几十年中国地区土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)较大,在区域气候模拟中尤其需要使用更加准确的土地利用/覆盖数据。基于模式原有的USGS和新开发的LUC90两种土地利用/覆盖资料,利用区域环境集成模拟系统(RIEMS2.0)分别进行连续10a模拟,分析LUCC对中国不同季节气温的影响。结果表明:1)采用LUC90资料后,中国及东北、华北、华南夏季平均气温增加,但只有东北模拟与观测值的偏差减小,且通过显著性检验(P<0.01)。中国及东北、华南冬季平均气温增加,并且模拟与观测值的偏差减少。中国及华北和华南对冬季气温年际变率的模拟改善好于夏季。2)土地利用/覆盖变化通过影响潜热通量的变化和净吸收辐射通量的变化来影响不同季节气温的变化。冬季净辐射通量变化对气温变化的贡献较夏季大,而夏季潜热通量变化对气温变化的贡献较冬季大。雨养农田转变森林、草地、灌溉农田过程造成通量变化,其对气温变化的影响也存在不同分区季节的差异。

SiB2模型在黄灌区的应用探讨

SiB2(simple biosphere model Version 2)是用来模拟生态系统通量较为理想的国外模型,为了探讨其在我国黄河灌区的适用性及利用遥感数据驱动模型的可行性,并用其来研究该地区农田能量收支情况,以位山灌区为研究试点,利用位山实验站1a左右的观测数据对模型进行了验证分析,模拟结果表明:SiB2模型能够较好地模拟位山试验站农田的能量通量、CO2通量及地表温度,净辐射、潜热通量、感热通量、CO2通量与地表温度的模拟值与观测值吻合较好,线性相关系数R分别为0.988,0.714,0.607,0.677与0.933,其中净辐射模拟效果最好,感热通量偏差较大。另外,利用遥感MODIS LAI数据驱动SiB2模型表明,除净辐射外,模拟效果很差,因此在站点尺度遥感LAI(叶面积指数,leaf area index)产品不适合驱动SiB2模型。

SEBS模型在黄淮海地区地表能量通量估算中的应用

在对SEBS模型的有关参数进行订正的基础上,利用MODIS遥感数据结合地表气象观测数据,对黄淮海地区地表能量通量进行了估算。将SEBS估算结果先与北京顺义定量遥感综合试验(QRSLSP/Shunyi)实测结果进行对比分析,然后与郑州的大孔径闪烁仪(LAS)观测的感热通量进行对比分析。结果表明,SEBS估算的通量与二者的实测结果相当一致。因此,利用改进后的SEBS模型估算的黄淮海地区地表能量通量具有一定的精度,可满足区域日蒸散量计算等的需求。

ICF内爆靶丸能流分布三维数值仿真

针对惯性约束聚变(ICF)两区均匀模型中靶丸表面能流分布问题,采用三维离散视角因子方法进行模拟仿真。对辐照过程中出现腔壁自身遮挡的面元,利用四叉树结构进行快速剔除;实现了GPU上的靶丸能流分布的并行计算。基于该方法开发的三维仿真软件IRAD3D 1.0,其有效性通过与解析解的对比得到了验证。不同算例模型的仿真结果表明了软件具有通用性、高效性,给出了靶丸均匀性分析的应用实例。

绕月与月面探测热环境及影响因素研究

为全面分析绕月和月面探测器可能经历的热环境作为热控设计依据,文章给出了典型高度和β角的环月圆轨道中,绕月探测航天器接收的太阳和月球红外热流密度及其变化规律。针对复杂月表地形,提出并采用月面三维月壤热模型,计算给出了不同太阳高度角下月面探测器在常规平坦月表的外热流密度情况,定量研究了月面山丘高度及其与探测器距离对探测器表面接收红外热流的影响程度,定性分析了复杂月表地形和月尘对探测器表面红外热流的影响。

2007年海气热通量影响南海夏季风爆发数值试验

本文利用RegCM3区域气候模式对2007年季风爆发前后南海海气热通量进行了数值模拟试验,探讨海气热通量对南海地区季风爆发以及相应变量场的影响得出以下结论:(1)RegCM3对南海降水、地面气温、500hPa位势高度场以及850hPa风场模拟整体偏弱,但是对各变量场的空间分布形势具有较好的模拟能力。(2)潜热、感热通量的变化对季风的爆发以及相应的变量场有重要影响,当去除潜热、感热通量后,南海低层基本受较强偏东风控制,500hPa位势高度有所偏高,副高偏西偏强,季风爆发严重偏晚,不利于南海地区水汽辐合抬升,使得降水大幅减少,大片海域甚至无降水出现;当潜热、感热加倍后,南海低层120°E以西基本受偏西风控制,风速明显加大,同时500hPa位势高度明显偏低,副高偏东偏弱,季风爆发偏早,有利于水汽在南海地区辐合,造成降水显著增多。