Responses of River Runoff to Climate Change Based on Nonlinear Mixed Regression Model in Chaohe River Basin of Hebei Province, China

Taking the nonlinear nature of runoff system into account,and combining auto-regression method and multi-regression method,a Nonlinear Mixed Regression Model (NMR) was established to analyze the impact of temperature and precipitation changes on annual river runoff process. The model was calibrated and verified by using BP neural network with observed meteorological and runoff data from Daiying Hydrological Station in the Chaohe River of Hebei Province in 1956–2000. Compared with auto-regression model,linear multi-regression model and linear mixed regression model,NMR can improve forecasting precision remarkably. Therefore,the simulation of climate change scenarios was carried out by NMR. The results show that the nonlinear mixed regression model can simulate annual river runoff well.

Spatial non-stationary characteristics between temperate grasslands based on a mixed geographically weighted regression model

Spatial models are effective in obtaining local details on grassland biomass,and their accuracy has important practical significance for the stable management of grasses and livestock.To this end,the present study utilized measured quadrat data of grass yield across different regions in the main growing season of temperate grasslands in Ningxia of China(August 2020),combined with hydrometeorology,elevation,net primary productivity(NPP),and other auxiliary data over the same period.Accordingly,non-stationary characteristics of the spatial scale,and the effects of influencing factors on grass yield were analyzed using a mixed geographically weighted regression(MGWR)model.The results showed that the model was suitable for correlation analysis.The spatial scale of ratio resident-area index(PRI)was the largest,followed by the digital elevation model,NPP,distance from gully,distance from river,average July rainfall,and daily temperature range;whereas the spatial scales of night light,distance from roads,and relative humidity(RH)were the most limited.All influencing factors maintained positive and negative effects on grass yield,save for the strictly negative effect of RH.The regression results revealed a multiscale differential spatial response regularity of different influencing factors on grass yield.Regression parameters revealed that the results of Ordinary least squares(OLS)(Adjusted R^(2)=0.642)and geographically weighted regression(GWR)(Adjusted R^(2)=0.797)models were worse than those of MGWR(Adjusted R^(2)=0.889)models.Based on the results of the RMSE and radius index,the simulation effect also was MGWR>GWR>OLS models.Ultimately,the MGWR model held the strongest prediction performance(R^(2)=0.8306).Spatially,the grass yield was high in the south and west,and low in the north and east of the study area.The results of this study provide a new technical support for rapid and accurate estimation of grassland yield to dynamically adjust grazing decision in the semi-arid loess hilly region.

Predictors of the Aggregate of COVID-19 Cases and Its Case-Fatality: A Global Investigation Involving 120 Countries

Objective: Since the identification of COVID-19 in December 2019 as a pandemic, over 4500 research papers were published with the term “COVID-19” contained in its title. Many of these reports on the COVID-19 pandemic suggested that the coronavirus was associated with more serious chronic diseases and mortality particularly in patients with chronic diseases regardless of country and age. Therefore, there is a need to understand how common comorbidities and other factors are associated with the risk of death due to COVID-19 infection. Our investigation aims at exploring this relationship. Specifically, our analysis aimed to explore the relationship between the total number of COVID-19 cases and mortality associated with COVID-19 infection accounting for other risk factors. Methods: Due to the presence of over dispersion, the Negative Binomial Regression is used to model the aggregate number of COVID-19 cases. Case-fatality associated with this infection is modeled as an outcome variable using machine learning predictive multivariable regression. The data we used are the COVID-19 cases and associated deaths from the start of the pandemic up to December 02-2020, the day Pfizer was granted approval for their new COVID-19 vaccine. Results: Our analysis found significant regional variation in case fatality. Moreover, the aggregate number of cases had several risk factors including chronic kidney disease, population density and the percentage of gross domestic product spent on healthcare. The Conclusions: There are important regional variations in COVID-19 case fatality. We identified three factors to be significantly correlated with case fatality.