Change Point Analysis to Detect the Effect of Pruning Severity on Tree Growth

The effect of pruning severity on tree growth was analyzed by change point detection using segmented regression. The present study applied this analysis to a well-known published data set including diameter growth response, tree age, pruning severity and pretreatment crown size. First, multiple regression analysis was performed to assess the effect of tree age, pruning severity and pretreatment crown size on diameter growth response. Next, segmented regression analysis was performed to assess the effect of pruning severity on diameter growth response. The results of the multiple regression showed that diameter growth response was significantly influenced by pruning severity and pretreatment crown size. The results of the segmented regression showed that in the whole data set, an abrupt change toward a decrease in diameter growth response was detected at 25% of the live crown removed. However, in the group of fully crowned and open-grown, diameter growth response continuously decreased with increasing pruning severity with no significant abrupt change, whereas in the group of 70% - 90% live crown, diameter growth response did not significantly decrease up to the break point (53% crown removed) and then abruptly decreased. This may be the first study to show the numerical evaluation of the effect of pruning severity on tree growth by change point analysis.

Multiple regression analysis of risk factors related to radiation pneumonitis

BACKGROUND Radiation pneumonitis(RP)is a severe complication of thoracic radiotherapy that may lead to dyspnea and lung fibrosis,and negatively affects patients’quality of life.AIM To carry out multiple regression analysis on the influencing factors of radiation pneumonitis.METHODS Records of 234 patients receiving chest radiotherapy in Huzhou Central Hospital(Huzhou,Zhejiang Province,China)from January 2018 to February 2021,and the patients were divided into either a study group or a control group based on the presence of radiation pneumonitis or not.Among them,93 patients with radiation pneumonitis were included in the study group and 141 without radiation pneumonitis were included in the control group.General characteristics,and radiation and imaging examination data of the two groups were collected and compared.Due to the statistical significance observed,multiple regression analysis was performed on age,tumor type,chemotherapy history,forced vital capacity(FVC),forced expiratory volume in the first second(FEV1),carbon monoxide diffusion volume(DLCO),FEV1/FVC ratio,planned target area(PTV),mean lung dose(MLD),total number of radiation fields,percentage of lung tissue in total lung volume(vdose),probability of normal tissue complications(NTCP),and other factors.RESULTS The proportions of patients aged≥60 years and those with the diagnosis of lung cancer and a history of chemotherapy in the study group were higher than those in the control group(P<0.05);FEV1,DLCO,and FEV1/FVC ratio in the study group were lower than those in the control group(P<0.05),while PTV,MLD,total field number,vdose,and NTCP were higher than in the control group(P<0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that age,lung cancer diagnosis,chemotherapy history,FEV1,FEV1/FVC ratio,PTV,MLD,total number of radiation fields,vdose,and NTCP were risk factors for radiation pneumonitis.CONCLUSION We have identified patient age,type of lung cancer,history of chemotherapy,lung function,and radiotherapy parameters as risk factors for radiation pneumonitis.Comprehensive evaluation and examination should be carried out before radiotherapy to effectively prevent radiation pneumonitis.

Quality of life of hospitalized patients after lung cancer operation and analysis of influencing factors

Objective:To explore the current status and influencing factors of quality of life in patients with lung cancer after surgery in a tertiary hospital in Hainan province.Methods:To investigate the influencing factors of quality of life of lung cancer patients after surgery in a tertiary hospital in Hainan province by cross‑sectional survey method.Results:The scores of insomnia,appetite loss,constipation and pain in 186 lung cancer patients after surgery in a tertiary hospital in Hainan Province were significantly higher than the reference value.Multiple linear regression analysis showed that older patients(>60 years)had lower scores in physical function domain(β=-0.193),and female patients had more appetite loss symptoms(β=0.245).Compared with other minority ethnic groups,Han ethnic group had lower scores in role function domain(β=0.179),more severe fatigue symptoms(β=-0.162),and higher general health level(β=0.166).Patients with employee medical insurance had lower scores of emotional function(β=0.194),cognitive function(β=0.281),the lowest score in social function(β=0.188),and severe pain in other parts(β=-0.227).Smokers had less cough symptoms(β=0.175)and more arm and shoulder pain symptoms(β=-0.21)than non‑smokers.Patients with secondhand smoke exposure had lower cognitive function scores(β=-0.158)and more obvious symptoms of oral ulcer(β=0.185).Patients who drank alcohol frequently(drinking frequency>1 time/day)had more severe cough symptoms(β=0.27).Patients with small number of children(0‑1)had milder cough symptoms(β=0.178).Patients who did not understand the disease had obvious symptoms of arm and shoulder pain(β=0.151).Patients with early pathological stage(stageⅠ‑Ⅱ)had more severe shortness of breath(β=-0.159)and pain(β=-0.181).The symptoms of appetite loss were more obvious in patients living in cities(β=0.192).The symptoms of peripheral neuropathy were more obvious(β=0.174).Patients who often consumed pickulated food had severe pain symptoms(β=-0.219),and pain in other parts was obvious(β=-0.149).Male patients had obvious alopecia symptoms(β=-0.306).Conclusion:Age,ethnicity,residence,type of medical insurance,number of children,pathological stage of lung cancer,smoking,second‑hand smoke exposure,alcohol consumption,and frequent consumption of pickled food were related to the quality of life of lung cancer patients in hospital after surgery.Medical staff and family members should pay attention to the emotional communication of patients during the treatment of lung cancer patients in hospital after surgery.Patients should avoid exposure to smoking,alcohol and second‑hand smoke,and reduce consumption of pickled food.

Unveiling the Predictive Capabilities of Machine Learning in Air Quality Data Analysis: A Comparative Evaluation of Different Regression Models

Air quality is a critical concern for public health and environmental regulation. The Air Quality Index (AQI), a widely adopted index by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), serves as a crucial metric for reporting site-specific air pollution levels. Accurately predicting air quality, as measured by the AQI, is essential for effective air pollution management. In this study, we aim to identify the most reliable regression model among linear discriminant analysis (LDA), quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA), logistic regression, and K-nearest neighbors (KNN). We conducted four different regression analyses using a machine learning approach to determine the model with the best performance. By employing the confusion matrix and error percentages, we selected the best-performing model, which yielded prediction error rates of 22%, 23%, 20%, and 27%, respectively, for LDA, QDA, logistic regression, and KNN models. The logistic regression model outperformed the other three statistical models in predicting AQI. Understanding these models' performance can help address an existing gap in air quality research and contribute to the integration of regression techniques in AQI studies, ultimately benefiting stakeholders like environmental regulators, healthcare professionals, urban planners, and researchers.

Cycle Time Analysis of Open Pit Mining Dump Trucks

This study demonstrates a practical cycle time analysis of dump truck haulage system of “Ukhaa Khudag” open-pit coal mine located in Umnugobi Province, Mongolia. It examines the possibility of minimizing the cycle time of the haulage system as well as factors impacting the speed of the dump truck. The current study divides the open pit mine road for the dump trucks into five sections which are bench road, ramp, surface road, dump road uphill, and dump road. Meanwhile, it investigates the influence of the length, the grade, and the rolling resistance of the road section on the cycle time. The data is analyzed using mathematical regression methods via Microsoft Excel program. For each of the five road sections, we compare the statistical calculations of three regression models: linear, quadratic and exponential;thus, a total of thirty regression models are obtained in this research. Accordingly, the cycle time for each road section is predicted by the most accountable model. The loaded and empty direction of the movement is measured and calculated for each road section, and it appears that the difference between the calculated mean value and the actual cycle time of the models is 0.82 seconds with a relative error of 2.51 percent.

The Establishment of Mathematical Models for the Composition Analysis and Identification of Ancient Glass Products

Glass is the precious material evidence of the trade of the early Silk Road. The ancient glass was easily affected by the environmental impact and weathering, and the change of composition ratios affected the correct judgment of its category. In this paper, mathematical models and methods such as Chi-square test, weighted average method, principal component analysis, cluster analysis, binary classification model and grey correlation analysis were used comprehensively to analyze the data of sample glass products combined with their categories. The results showed that the weathered high-potassium glass could be divided into 12, 9, 10 and 27, 7, 22 and so on.

Analysis and Evaluation Indicator Selection of Chilling Tolerance of Different Cotton Genotypes

[Objectivc] This study aimed to investigate the chilling tolerance of seedlings of different cotton genotypes and screen appropriate indicators for assess- ing chilling tolerance, to establish reliable mathematical evaluation model for chilling tolerance of cotton, thus providing theoretical basis for breeding and promoting new chilling-tolerant cotton germplasms and large-scale evaluation of chilling tolerance of cotton varieties. [Method] Fifteen cotton varieties （lines） were used as experimental materials. The photosynthetic gas exchange parameters, chlorophyll fluorescence ki- netic parameters, chlorophyll content, relative soluble sugar content, malonaldehyde content, relative proiine content, relative conductivity and other 12 physiological indi- cators of seedling leaves under low temperature treatment （5 ℃, 12 h） and recovery treatment （25 ℃. 24 h） were determined; based on the chilling tolerance coefficient （CTC） of various individual indicators, the comprehensive evaluation of chilling toler- ance was conducled by using principal component analysis, hierarchical cluster anal- ysis and stepwise regression analysis. [Result] The results showed that the 12 indi- vidual physiological indicators could be classified into 7 independent comprehensive components by principal component analysis; 15 cotton varieties （lines） were clus- tered into three categories by using membership function method and hierarchical cluster analysis; the mathematical model for evaluating chilling tolerance of cotton seedlings was established： D =0.275 -0.244Fo1 ＋0.206Fv/Fm1＋0.326g,%-0.056SS ＋ 0.225MDA＋O.O38REC （FF=0.995）, and the evaluation accuracy of the equation was higher than 94.25%,0. Six identification indicators closely related to chilling tolerance were screened, including Fo,, Fv/Fm1, Seedling leaves of cotton varieties （lines） gs2, SS, MDA, and REC. [Conclusion] with high chilling tolerance are less dam- aged under low temperature stress, and are able to maintain relatively high photo- synthetic electron transport capacity and high stomatal conductance after recovery treatment, which is contributed to gas exchange and recovery of photosynthetic ca- pacity. Determination of the six indicators under the same stress condition can be adopted for rapid identification and prediction of the chilling tolerance of other cotton varieties, which provides basis for the breeding, promotion, identification and screen- ing of chilling tolerant germplasms.

Relating estimates of wood properties of birch to stem form, age and species

Birch has long suffered from a lack of active forest management,leading many researchers to use mate-rial without a detailed management history.Data collected from three birch(Betula pendula Roth,B.pubescens Ehrh.)sites in southern Sweden were analyzed using regression analysis to detect any trends or differences in wood proper-ties that could be explained by stand history,tree age and stem form.All sites were genetics trials established in the same way.Estimates of acoustic velocity(AV)from non-destructive testing(NDT)and predicted AV had a higher correlation if data was pooled across sites and other stem form factors were considered.A subsample of stems had radial profiles of X-ray wood density and ring width by year created,and wood density was related to ring number from the pith and ring width.It seemed likely that wood density was negatively related to ring width for both birch species.Linear models had slight improvements if site and species were included,but only the youngest site with trees at age 15 had both birch species.This paper indicated that NDT values need to be considered separately,and any predictive models will likely be improved if they are specific to the site and birch species measured.

Variation characteristics of stable isotopes in atmospheric precipitation in Adelaide,Australia

Background,aim,and scope Stable isotope in water could respond sensitively to the variation of environment and be reserved in different geological archives,although they are scarce in the environment.And the methods derived from the stable isotope composition of water have been widely applied in researches on hydrometeorology,weather diagnosis,and paleoclimate reconstruction,which help well for understanding the water-cycle processes in one region.Here,it is aimed to explore the temporal changes of stable isotopes in precipitation from Adelaide,Australia and determine the influencing factors at different timescales.Materials and methods Based on the isotopic data of daily precipitation over four years collected in Adelaide,Australia,the variation characteristics of dailyδD,δ^(18)O,and dexcess in precipitation and its relationship with meteorological elements were analyzed.Results The results demonstrated the local meteoric water line(LMWL)in Adelaide,wasδD=6.38×δ^(18)O+6.68,with a gradient less than 8.There is a significant negative correlation between dailyδ^(18)O and precipitation amount or relative humidity at daily timescales in both the whole year and wither/summerhalf year(p<0.001),but a significant positive correlation between dailyδ^(18)O and temperature in the whole year and the winter half-year(p<0.001).Discussion The correlation coefficients betweenδ^(18)O and daily mean temperature didn’t show a significant positive correlation,which may be attributed to that the precipitation in Adelaide area in January was mainly influenced by strong convective weather,and the stable isotope values in precipitation were significantly negative.Furthermore,this propose was also evidenced by the results from dexcess of precipitation with larger value in the winter half-year than that in the summer half-year,which may be resulted from the precipitation events in winter are mostly influenced by oceanic water vapor,while the sources of water vapor in summer precipitation events are more complicated and influenced by strong convective weather.On the other hand,the slope and intercept of theδ^(18)O—P regression lines in the summer months(-0.41 and 0.50‰)are larger and smaller than those in the winter months(-0.22 and-2.15‰),respectively,indicating that the precipitation stable isotopes have a relatively stronger rainout effect in the summer months than in the winter months.Besides,the measured values ofδ^(18)O in daily precipitation have a good linear relationship with our simulated values ofδ^(18)O,demonstrating the established regression model could provide a reliable simulation for theδ^(18)O values in daily precipitation in Adelaide area.It’s worth noting that the precipitation events with low precipitation amount,low relative humidity and high temperature,usually had relatively small slope and intercept of MWL,implying that raindrops may be strongly affected by sub-cloud secondary evaporation in the falling process.Conclusions The variation ofδ^(18)O in daily precipitation from Adelaide region was controlled by different factors at different timescales.And the water vapor sources and the meteorological conditions of precipitation events(such as the degree of sub-cloud secondary evaporation)also played an important role on the variation ofδ^(18)O.Recommendations and perspectives Stable isotope in daily precipitation can provide more accurate information about water-cycle and atmosphere circulation,it is therefore necessary to continue to collect and analyze daily-scale precipitation data over a longer time span.The results of this study will provide the basis for the fields of hydrometeorology,meteorological diagnosis and paleoclimate reconstruction in Adelaide,Australia.

Correction:Establishment of a prediction model for prehospital return of spontaneous circulation in out-of-hospital patients with cardiac arrest

This is an erratum to an already published paper named“Establishment of a prediction model for prehospital return of spontaneous circulation in out-ofhospital patients with cardiac arrest”.We found errors in the affiliated institution of the authors.We apologize for our unintentional mistake.Please note,these changes do not affect our results.

Establishment of a nomogram model for predicting therapy complications in patients with polycythemia and deep venous thrombosis

BACKGROUND Patients with deep venous thrombosis(DVT)residing at high altitudes can only rely on anticoagulation therapy,missing the optimal window for surgery or thrombolysis.Concurrently,under these conditions,patient outcomes can be easily complicated by high-altitude polycythemia(HAPC),which increases the difficulty of treatment and the risk of recurrent thrombosis.To prevent reaching this point,effective screening and targeted interventions are crucial.Thus,this study analyzes and provides a reference for the clinical prediction of thrombosis recurrence in patients with lower-extremity DVT combined with HAPC.AIM To apply the nomogram model in the evaluation of complications in patients with HAPC and DVT who underwent anticoagulation therapy.METHODS A total of 123 patients with HAPC complicated by lower-extremity DVT were followed up for 6-12 months and divided into recurrence and non-recurrence groups according to whether they experienced recurrence of lower-extremity DVT.Clinical data and laboratory indices were compared between the groups to determine the influencing factors of thrombosis recurrence in patients with lowerextremity DVT and HAPC.This study aimed to establish and verify the value of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of thrombus recurrence.RESULTS Logistic regression analysis showed that age,immobilization during follow-up,medication compliance,compliance with wearing elastic stockings,and peripheral blood D-dimer and fibrin degradation product levels were indepen-dent risk factors for thrombosis recurrence in patients with HAPC complicated by DVT.A Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test demonstrated that the nomogram model established based on the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis was effective in predicting the risk of thrombosis recurrence in patients with lowerextremity DVT complicated by HAPC(χ^(2)=0.873;P>0.05).The consistency index of the model was 0.802(95%CI:0.799-0.997),indicating its good accuracy and discrimination.CONCLUSION The column chart model for the personalized prediction of thrombotic recurrence risk has good application value in predicting thrombotic recurrence in patients with lower-limb DVT combined with HAPC after discharge.

Material Design and Experimental Analysis of a New Type of Semiconductor ER Fluids

To improve the electrorheological effect of electrorheological fluid (ERF), a new type of the electrosensitive particle material, polynaphthalene quinone was prepared, whose molecules contain blended atoms of nitrogen, oxygen, sulphur and big π bond conjugate system. In both DC and AC electric fields, the ERF material showed a distinct ER effect. Especially, in the alternating electric field, the shear stress of this material versus AC voltage has a better quadratic relation than that of the other materials. The experimental data showed that organic semiconductor polymers with big π bond conjugate system are a new type of electrosensitive particle materials which are worth well developing.

Population Quantity Variations of Oriental Fruit Fly (Bactrocera dorsalis Hendel) on the Basis of Stepwise Regression Analysis

[Objective] The research aimed to study the significant influence factors of the population variations of oriental fruit fly. [Method] Using stepwise regression analysis, the population variations law of oriental fruit fly in Jianshui County of Yunnan province and the meteorological factors that caused its occurrence were analyzed. And the regression model was built. Finally, the regression model was tested on the basis of the data in Jianshui County of Yunnan Province during 2004-2006.[Result] The main meteorological factors that influenced the occurrence of oriental fruit fly were relative humidity, the lowest monthly temperature and rainfall. [Conclusion] This study will provide certain reference for the prediction researches on the time, quantity and occurrence peak of oriental fruit fly.

Enterprise Value Valuation-BYD as an Example Based on SWOT Model and Multiple Regression Model

BYD is one of the largest new energy vehicle companies in China.Analyzing its scenario and the factors that affect its value helps to understand and identify development opportunities and potential problems.On one hand,this paper makes a qualitative analysis of BYD,using SWOT model to study the internal capability and external environment of BYD.On the other hand,the multiple regression model is used for quantitative analysis of BYD’s enterprise value,and the model is established based on three factors:enterprise fundamentals,investor behavior and psychology,and macroeconomic policy uncertainty,and the stepwise regression is carried out.The results show that the increase of institutional investors’shareholding ratio,the increase of investor sentiment index,and the increase of M2 growth rate will increase the overall enterprise value,while the increase of economic policy uncertainty will decrease the enterprise value.

Empirical analysis on risk of security investment

The paper analyzes the theory and application of Markowitz Mean-Variance Model and CAPM model. Firstly, it explains the development process and standpoints of two models and deduces the whole process in detail. Then 30 stocks are choosen from Shangzheng 50 stocks and are testified whether the prices of Shanghai stocks conform to the two models. With the technique of time series and panel data analysis, the research on the stock risk and effective portfolio by ORIGIN and MATLAB software is conducted. The result shows that Shanghai stock market conforms to Markowitz Mean-Variance Model to a certain extent and can give investors reliable suggestion to gain higher return, but there is no positive relation between system risk and profit ratio and CAPM doesn＇t function well in China＇s security market.

Rapid Prototype Development Approach for Genetic Programming

Genetic Programming (GP) is an important approach to deal with complex problem analysis and modeling, and has been applied in a wide range of areas. The development of GP involves various aspects, including design of genetic operators, evolutionary controls and implementations of heuristic strategy, evaluations and other mechanisms. When designing genetic operators, it is necessary to consider the possible limitations of encoding methods of individuals. And when selecting evolutionary control strategies, it is also necessary to balance search efficiency and diversity based on representation characteristics as well as the problem itself. More importantly, all of these matters, among others, have to be implemented through tedious coding work. Therefore, GP development is both complex and time-consuming. To overcome some of these difficulties that hinder the enhancement of GP development efficiency, we explore the feasibility of mutual assistance among GP variants, and then propose a rapid GP prototyping development method based on πGrammatical Evolution (πGE). It is demonstrated through regression analysis experiments that not only is this method beneficial for the GP developers to get rid of some tedious implementations, but also enables them to concentrate on the essence of the referred problem, such as individual representation, decoding means and evaluation. Additionally, it provides new insights into the roles of individual delineations in phenotypes and semantic research of individuals.

Participatory Forest Management and Gender Inclusiveness within the Community Forest Management Groups of Bhutan

Community forest management groups (CFMGs) in Bhutan exhibit participatory forest management practices that recognize the importance of community’s collective participation in the management of natural forest resources. This approach involves the community in the stewardship of designated forest areas and resources to ensure sustainable livelihoods and realization of forest conservation objectives. The increase of CFMGs in the country has been successful. However, research on the extent of gender-inclusive participation in CFMGs is either insufficient or missing vis-à-vis the allocation of decision-making power. Therefore, this study analyzes the factors influencing gender participation in CFMGs and their integration into decision-making processes. Primary data were collected from 12 study sites spanning 4 regions, complemented by secondary data from the Forest Department. Regression models were used to identify factors significantly influencing CFMG member participation in decision-making. The empirical results of this study reveal that gender is a significant factor influencing participation in CFMG decision-making. The study concludes that there is insufficient participation of women members in decision-making processes. Therefore, consideration of gender should be included in the development phase of the CFMG policy in addition to promoting awareness of inequity between gender and the promotion of leadership roles for women in CFMGs.

Infinite Loop?What Is Behind the Ongoing Turmoil in the Banking Sector?

The war in Ukraine is unfortunately not over,to add insult to injury,Silicon Valley Bank collapses and Credit Suisse acquired by UBS under the Swiss emergency legislation.The merger of Credit Suisse with UBS,Switzerland’s biggest bank,has also raised concerns about the proliferation of more institutions deemed“too big to fail”.Through the study of four financial crises in the past 100 years,this paper believes that behind this potential financial crisis is still the real estate bubble,but the significant problems in the United States are the most worrying.Post-financial crisis recessions are costlier and last longer than normal recessions.When credit booms are superimposed with asset price bubbles,financial crises are highly likely and economic recovery will be slower.In this paper,relative data and regression model are used to analyze the causes of the crisis;further this paper discusses the reasons behind the financial crisis and related conjectures and gives relevant development speculations.

Agricultural Input and Output in Jiangsu Province with Case Analysis

[Objective] The aim was to explore interrelationship between agricultural input and output in Jiangsu and the influence degrees of input factors on agricultur-al output. [Method] Quantitative analysis and evaluation were made on agricultural input and output in Jiangsu during 1990-2012 as per factor analysis and regression analysis. [Result] The result of factor analysis showed that since the 1990s, the comprehensive efficiency of agricultural input/output in Jiangsu was growing and in-put/output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, crop farming, and of food production were extracted, whose scores reflect the changes of input/output ef-ficiencies in terms of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, crop farming and food production in the two decades. The results of regression analysis indicated that the effects of the three indices on agricultural output tended to be volatile and the influence degrees were concluded also by regression parameters. [Conclusion] The research provides theoretical references for agricultural input/output structure in Jiangsu Province.

Risk factor analysis of post-ERCP cholangitis: A single-center experience

Background: Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography(ERCP) may have complications. Our study aimed to investigate the risk factors and prevention of post-ERCP cholangitis.Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 4234 cases undergone ERCP in the Affiliated Drum Tower Hospital of Nanjing University Medical School from January 2008 to December 2013. Patient-related factors and procedure-related factors were analyzed to find the risk factors of post-ERCP cholangitis. The time point of post-ERCP cholangitis was also analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to define the independent risk factors of post-ERCP cholangitis.Results: The success rate of ERCP was 96.8%(4099/4234). The overall complication rate was 9.4%(399/4234). Post-ERCP cholangitis occurred in 102 cases(2.4%, 102/4234). The most dangerous time of post-ERCP cholangitis was from 24 h–48 h after ERCP(45.1%, 46/102). Univariate analysis revealed that age, hypertension, diabetes, previous ERCP history, biliary stent insertion, pancreatography, endoscopic sphincterotomy, balloon dilation and hilar obstruction were risk factors of post-ERCP cholangitis(P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated that age, previous ERCP history and hilar obstruction were independent risk factors(P < 0.05). While endoscopic stone extraction was the potential protective factor.Conclusions: Many risk factors are involved in post-ERCP cholangitis. Among them, old age, previous ERCP history and hilar obstruction were independently related to this post-ERCP complication.