Spatio-temporal Pattern Characteristics of Relationship Between Urbanization and Economic Development at County Level in China

The relationship between China’s urbanization and economic development(RCUED) is an important concern nationwide. As important actors in regional strategy and policy, county-level regions have played an increasingly significant role in the development of China’s social economy. However, the existing research on the RCUED lacks the fine depiction of the county-level administrative units.Using 2000 and 2010 census data and the statistical analysis method, we uncovered the evolution characteristics of China’s urbanization and economic development and conducted a quantitative identification for the RCUED with improved methods using the quadrant map approach. In addition, we investigated the spatial correlation effect of the RCUED using the spatial autocorrelation analysis method. The results were as follows: 1) In general, a high degree of matching exists between China’s urbanization and economic development at the county level at the significance level of 0.01. The correlation coefficients between China’s urbanization and economic development in2000 and 2010 were 0.608 and 0.603, respectively. 2) A significant regional difference exists in the RCUED at the county level. Based on a comparative analysis of 2276 county units in China in the two years, we found that county units can be categorized as under-urbanized, basic coordination and over-urbanized in various areas. No situation was observed where urbanization seriously lagged behind the economic development level, so the levels of urbanization and economic development appear to be basically coordinated,and the coordination state may be gradually optimized over time. 3) Over time, the spatial dependency of the RCUED has weakened and the spatial heterogeneity has increased. Northeast China has always been an area characterized by over-urbanization. The number of county units classified as under-urbanized has begun to decline in eastern coastal urban agglomeration areas, while counties rich in resources have transformed from having point-shaped over-urbanization to plane-shaped under-urbanization along the northern border,and the number of over-urbanized county units has increased in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. 4)’Lag-lag’ type and ’advance-advance’ type accounted for 68% of all counties in China, and these counties were shown to have obvious spatial differentiation characteristics.

Revisiting the Relationship Between Urbanization and Economic Development in China Since the Reform and Opening-up

The relationship between urbanization and economic development has become a hot topic in the scientific community due to its great practical significance,and economic and social value.However,this relationship continues to change dynamically.In the new stage of urbanization,it is urgent to reveal the causal relationship quantitatively and diagnose the future direction systematically.Based on this,this paper calculates the contribution rate of China’s urbanization to economic development from 1978 to 2019 and uses the panel data cointegration test method to explore the causal relationship between urbanization and economic development in China.The study has three principal results.First,the contribution rate of urbanization to economic growth has maintained the overall growth trend from1978 to 2019,but the growth rate of urbanization’s contribution to economic growth has been relatively low since 2012.It is an important reason that the real estate sector has moved into a new stage of transformation.Second,the cointegration test shows that economic development is a significant factor in advancing urbanization and the urbanization is the product of economic development.Urbanization has a positive feedback effect on economic development,but this effect does not pass the 5%significance level test.The impulse response function shows that the impact of urbanization on economic development is relatively small and stable,indicating that it is limited that the boost of economic development by land-centered urbanization.Third,China’s urbanization and economic development have both shown rapid growth for some time,but their relationship is still the low level of coordination,which has also led to a downward trend in the contribution of new-type,people-oriented urbanization to economic growth in recent years.In the future,China’s urbanization and economy need to maintain relatively medium-low speed growth in the medium-long term,and we should boost the coordinated development of urbanization and economy from low level to high level.

On the Relationship between Human Rights Protection and Economic Development

British Economist Angus Maddison said that eco nomic development is a recent phenomenon inhuman history. Although human species have lived on the planet at least 2.5 million years, economic development only appeared around the 1850s. In pursuit of economic development, not all nationalities have been equally lucky. Among more than 200 countries in the world, only dozens of countries are devel oped. Onethird of the world＇s total population of 6.5 billion are living in poverty. In both developing and developed countries, the wealth gap is often obvious. Therefore, eco nomic development is the goal of each country, the aim of each politi cal party, and the wish of all people. However, economic development usually baffles people. As a result, understanding the relationship be tween economic development and human rights protection is a matter of urgency.

Coordination of economic development and ecological environment in resource exhausted cities

This paper establishes the evaluation index system of ecological environment and economic development in resource exhausted cities, and calculates the level of economic development and ecological environment during the year 2005-2012 by using the entropy method. Furthermore, this study analyzes the coordination degree and coordinated development degree by using the coordination model. The results show that the coordination relationship of economic development and ecological environment continues to improve from 2005 to 2012 in most of these resource exhausted cities. By 2012, other resource depletion cities are in all kinds of hierarchical coordination except Yichun and Hegang. From the standpoint of coordination development degree, although most of these resource exhausted cities have been increased continuously but the level is also lower except in Tongling and Xinyu. Finally, this paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions according to the results of the analysis.

The Centenary of the CPC:Exploration and Improvement of Central-Local Economic Relationship

Decentralization is a global phenomenon,but growth is not.The economic relationship between central and local governments is an important yet unresolved question in China’s economic development.As a large country with unbalanced political and economic development,China is faced with unbalanced and inadequate development as the primary constraint to meeting people’s ever-growing needs for a better life.The Communist Party of China(CPC)has been exploring to mobilize the initiatives of both central and local governments.During the planned economy era,China experienced a few rounds of centralization of economic powers but failed to strike a balance in maximizing the initiatives of both central and local governments.After the reform and opening up policy enacted in 1978,China’s central and local governments have succeeded in combining economic decentralization with administrative decentralization.China’s central government,local governments and enterprises have become resource allocation entities.China’s economic growth miracle has been driven by promoting the initiatives of central and local governments.Entering the new era,the central-local economic relationship represents an institutional strength of concentrating resources to accomplish great undertakings and leveraging the initiatives of both central and local governments.With the principal contradiction facing China’s development shifted into one between people’s growing needs for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development,the management of central and local government relationship has taken on greater theoretical significance and salient implications in the new era.

中国数字经济空间动态演进的区域现状

数字经济已成为引领我国经济一体化高质量发展的主要驱动力,立足于国家整体经济及区域经济稳步协调发展的战略。文章基于中国2013—2020年省级数据,运用主成分分析法对中国数字经济进行测度,并运用社会网络分析及核密度等方法对我国数字经济动态演化的空间关联及区域差异进行研究。研究发现:(1)2013—2020年我国数字经济发展整体网络密度稳步提升但依旧处于低水平。(2)中国各省份数字经济发展两极分化,东部与西北、东北等边缘地区存在“数字经济鸿沟”,加之整体关联水平低,分化严重,发达地区对边缘地区的辐射效应较低,差距可能愈发扩大。(3)将其划分为四个板块,发现存在“弱关联”板块,板块间溢出关系及关联度差异悬殊,进一步研究各省份数字经济发展的“中间人”作用,发现各省份承担角色更是“极化”严重。研究结果可为我国持续深化数字经济建设,推动经济协调、稳定、高质量发展提供参考。

石家庄市县域科技创新与经济发展耦合协调关系时空演变

选取石家庄市13个县域单元作为研究区域,构建科技创新能力和经济发展水平评价指标体系,计算评价指数,测算两者的耦合协调度,使用ArcGIS绘制空间分布图,深入剖析科技创新能力、经济发展水平以及两者耦合协调关系的时空演变特征。研究发现:全市县域科技创新能力和经济发展水平呈现较强的正相关性,且都在2010—2017年间提升速度较快,而在2019年之后提升速度呈减慢的趋势。2010—2021年经济发展水平指数均高于科技创新能力指数,但后者提升速度高于前者,表明石家庄市各县域科技创新能力滞后于经济发展水平,但科技创新能力的发展势头较好。2010年以来,全市县域耦合协调度呈现上升趋势,但耦合协调度与科技创新能力和经济发展水平的变化趋势相似,即2018年之前的提升速度要快于2018年之后。2021年,全市县域耦合协调度等级为“勉强协调发展”,协调发展水平较低,有待进一步提升。

数字金融与区域经济发展的耦合协调性测度及其动态演进

以中国八大综合经济区为例,运用耦合协调度模型分析数字金融对区域经济发展的耦合协调关系,并基于Dagum基尼系数与Kernel核密度揭示数字金融与区域经济发展之间协调关系的地区差异及动态演进规律。结果表明:八大综合经济区的经济发展水平总体呈现稳定增长态势,具有“东高西低”阶梯形的异质性和阶段性特征;数字金融与区域经济发展之间协调发展水平逐年提升,八大综合经济区普遍由失调阶段跨入协调阶段;数字金融与区域经济发展之间协调关系存在明显的地区差异,沿海经济区的协调水平明显高于内陆经济区,但地区间协调程度的差距呈现逐渐缩小的演进态势。

The provincial pattern of the relationship between urbanization and economic development in China

Understanding the relationship between China＇s urbanization and economic de- velopment on a provincial scale is of profound theoretical and practical significance. Based on data from 124 countries or regions throughout the world and 31 provinces or autonomous regions in China, applying improved methods using the quadrant map approach, this paper analyzed the spatial pattern of the relationship between China＇s urbanization and economic development level. The study identified the following results. （1） The 31 province-level re- gions fall into six categories： only one region is in the category of sharp over-urbanization, 3 regions are in medium over-urbanization, 11 slight over-urbanization, 8 basic coordination, one medium under-urbanization, and seven slight under-urbanization. （2） There are signifi- cant regional differences on a provincial scale in the relationships between urbanization and the level of economic development. （3） The provincial pattern of urbanization and economic development is significantly different between east and west. The eastern coastal areas are mainly over-urbanized, while the central and western regions are mainly under-urbanized. （4） The relationship between urbanization and the level of economic development is similar to the Matthew effect. Hence, two important insights are proposed. First, the phenomenon of over-urbanization in some developed regions should be viewed with some concern and vigi- lance. Second, urbanization needs to be speeded up moderately in the central and western regions.

高等教育发展、技术创新与产业结构升级的耦合关系及其收敛性、动态演进分析——以长江经济带为例

构建耦合协调度模型对长江经济带高等教育发展、技术创新与产业结构升级之间耦合协调关系进行测度,并分析其收敛性和动态演进趋势。研究结果表明:考察期内长江经济带各省市高等教育发展、技术创新与产业结构升级耦合协调水平总体处于上升趋势,但耦合水平较低,贵州和云南一直处于极度失调阶段,安徽、江西、湖北、湖南、四川、重庆由极度失调阶段过渡到严重失调阶段;上海则在中度失调和轻度失调之间徘徊;浙江由严重失调阶段进入中度失调和轻度失调阶段;江苏省由轻度失调进入濒临失调、勉强协调阶段;长江经济带高等教育发展、技术创新与产业结构升级耦合协调度存在δ-收敛和β-收敛;耦合协调水平差异在扩大,出现了多极化现象。

人口老龄化、经济增长与高质量发展

人口老龄化是现代化进程中人口转变的结果。在中国式现代化视域下,经济高质量发展既是一个渐进的自然过程,也是人口和经济发展到一定阶段的内在要求,是经济增长速度和经济发展质量的统一。人口老龄化通过储蓄和消费、人力资本、公共支出、科技创新及其他机制影响经济增长和高质量发展,导致人口老龄化与经济增长和高质量发展的关系是非线性的,这得到了国际经验和中国实践的证实,21世纪前10年是中国人口老龄化影响经济增长由正向到负向的转折期;从经济高质量发展角度看,人口老龄化的影响也大致呈现相同轨迹。以人口高质量发展支撑中国式现代化,要避免夸大人口老龄化的负面影响,也不要忽视人口规模因素的影响,以系统观念认识和理解人口老龄化条件下的经济增长和高质量发展潜能。

以人口高质量发展支撑中国式现代化的机制分析与实践路径

在强国建设、民族复兴的战略背景下,推动人口高质量发展是实现中国式现代化的内在要求。中国式现代化是人口规模巨大的现代化,人口规模巨大可以为经济社会高质量发展提供要素支撑,为构建新发展格局,推动全体人民共同富裕作出贡献。但是,我国人口也存在着低生育率、人口老龄化等结构性问题。研究如何推进人口高质量发展,如何推动人口高质量发展与经济高质量发展相协调,如何健全人口高质量发展的社会政策体系,研究人口高质量发展推进中国式现代化的机制和路径,对推进中国式现代化、培育新质生产力具有重要的理论和现实意义。

创造性与“新文科”的现代取向——以“第一轴心期”转向“第二轴心期”为背景

一般认为,大理科是以创造性为基本取向的学科,大文科则以秩序的供给呈现出保守的一面。其实这是一个误解。创造性是现代科学文化、人文文化与社会科学文化的共同特征。人文社会科学知识的刷新,也就是它的创造性,丝毫也不弱于大理科。从传统文化的“两创”扩展出来的新文科“两创”命题,促使人们意识到大文科在维护人文价值与创新知识体系上的双重责任。文科在目前大学体制中的被动处境,是文科新旧更替的现实动力。新文科需要以当下的“现代”品格确立其学科特性,以求新文科能够成功顺应科技革命掀起的知识变革大潮,让新文科能够重现“第一轴心期”的人文学辉煌,一改文科尾随理工科的颓势。为此,文科需要祛除“无用即大用”的自辩自限,以学科的跨越、知识的综合、当下“现代”呈现的“第二轴心期”的全新解释为取径,确立自己的宏大使命。新文科之“新”的根本含义即在于此。

银发经济高质量发展:人口基础、战略导向与路径选择

在全面建设社会主义现代化国家的新征程中,发展方式转变、经济结构优化和增长动力转换等经济发展新要求相叠加,人口少子化、老龄化和区域人口增减分化等人口发展新形势相交织,推动银发经济高质量发展成为统筹经济新要求和人口新形势的时代课题。银发人口规模的不断壮大,银发消费能力和消费偏好的日新月异,夯实了银发经济高质量发展的人口基础。人口高质量发展和经济高质量发展相联动,养老事业和养老产业高质量发展相协同,有效市场和有为政府相结合,构成了银发经济高质量发展的战略导向。未来推动银发经济高质量发展,需要沿着打造高质量供给体系、健全多层次保障体系、强化要素环境支持体系的基本路径前进。

黄河流域城市群水资源利用与经济发展脱钩关系研究

黄河流域最大的矛盾是水资源短缺,如何科学揭示大尺度缺水型流域城市群水资源利用与经济发展之间的脱钩关系,是黄河生态保护和高质量发展的重大战略管理需求,也是水科学与经济学交叉学科的研究难点.本文发展了基于三维水资源生态足迹和Tapio弹性指数的耦合脱钩模型方法,辨识黄河流域城市群2010-2020年水资源生态足迹时空变化格局及其水资源可持续利用水平,从广度和深度多个维度定量揭示了黄河流域城市群水资源利用与经济发展的脱钩状态.结果表明:(1)2010-2020年黄河流域兰西城市群具有最大的水资源生态足迹广度和最小的水资源生态足迹深度,平均值分别为570.73×10^(4)hm^(2)和1.25;宁夏沿黄城市群则具有最小的水资源生态足迹广度和最大的水资源生态足迹深度,平均值分别为2.01×10^(4)hm^(2)和567.05.(2)黄河流域水资源可持续利用水平最强的是山东半岛城市群,相对较低的是宁夏沿黄城市群.(3)水资源生态足迹广度与GDP发生强脱钩和扩张性负脱钩的比例分别为49.68%和36.13%,水资源生态足迹深度与GDP发生强脱钩和扩张性负脱钩的比例分别为41.29%和34.03%,二者均未达到最佳脱钩状态.研究显示,为提升黄河流域水资源可持续利用水平,水资源生态足迹广度与GDP弱脱钩、水资源生态足迹深度与GDP强脱钩是最佳状态.

京津冀城市群公共文化服务与经济高质量发展耦合协调分析

建设“文化强国”、推动“经济高质量发展”与“京津冀协同发展”国家战略叠加的背景下,迫切需要解决京津冀城市群公共文化服务与经济高质量协调发展问题。通过构建京津冀城市群公共文化服务、经济高质量发展两个子系统的耦合模型,采用熵值法、耦合协调度模型、空间自相关、面板回归等方法,对2010—2020年京津冀城市群公共文化服务与经济高质量发展水平的耦合协调程度进行实证研究。结果表明:(1)京津冀城市群公共文化服务与经济高质量发展耦合协调度较低,且两极分化严重,大部分城市处于失调衰退区间;(2)京津冀城市群呈现中心-外围的空间特征,空间相关性低,相互依赖性较弱,集聚性不高;(3)影响因素方面,除了年底常住总人口对耦合协调度影响不显著外,人均财政支出、平均受教育年限、铁路营业里程、公路里程和地区生产总值各项指标与耦合协调度均呈现出正相关关系。

The Cross-Correlation Relationship Between the Real Estate Industry and High-Quality Economic Development

Based on China’s real estate investment(REI), commercial housing sales(CHS), and GDP data from 2001 to 2020, we studied the dependence, asymmetry, and transmission direction of China’s real estate and economy. Their cross-correlation is demonstrated through the deep crosscorrelation analysis(DCCA) algorithm, multifractal asymmetric detrended cross-correlation analysis(MF-ADCCA) algorithm and DCCA algorithm based on a time delay. Both REI and CHS have persistence with GDP. The real estate industry and economy have asymmetric multifractal characteristics.Meanwhile, real estate and the economy have different trends, and they can affect each other with the same length of time delay. This effect diminishes in a short period of time, and there are unsteady fluctuations in cross-correlation persistence in the long term.

财税体制改革推进共同富裕的理论逻辑和实现路径

共同富裕是社会主义的本质要求,扎实推进共同富裕是中国式现代化的重要特征。当前,我国推进共同富裕面临发展不充分与不均衡的双重困境,财政作为国家治理的基础与重要支柱,新一轮财税体制改革必须回应其中的重点、难点问题。针对当前财税体制弊端,新一轮财税体制改革,重点需要优化税收制度、加强财政支出的绩效管理、理顺政府间财政关系、完善国有资本经营预算绩效管理等,为扎实推进共同富裕夯实制度基础。

技术创新对绿色发展的空间效应与传导机制——基于长三角城市群的经验证据

本文以2003~2022年长三角城市群为样本构建绿色发展综合评价指标,采用空间杜宾模型和中介效应检验探究技术创新对城市绿色发展的空间效应与传导机制。结果显示:(1)技术创新对城市绿色发展具有显著的正向促进作用;(2)技术创新对城市绿色发展的影响存在空间异质性,非都市圈城市技术创新的直接效应显著,但都市圈城市技术创新的直接效应有所减弱且溢出效应不显著;非资源型城市技术创新的直接效应和溢出效应均显著为正,资源型城市技术创新的直接效应和溢出效应均不显著;(3)技术创新通过节能减排效应和产业升级效应对城市绿色发展产生积极影响。未来,长三角城市群宜在鼓励企业绿色技术创新、建立地区协作机制、发挥都市圈城市和非资源型城市的创新辐射带动作用方面重点发力,以促进全区域高质量发展迈入新阶段。