Machine learning ensemble model prediction of northward shift in potato cyst nematodes(Globodera rostochiensis and G.pallida)distribution under climate change conditions

Potato cyst nematodes(PCNs)are a significant threat to potato production,having caused substantial damage in many countries.Predicting the future distribution of PCN species is crucial to implementing effective biosecurity strategies,especially given the impact of climate change on pest species invasion and distribution.Machine learning(ML),specifically ensemble models,has emerged as a powerful tool in predicting species distributions due to its ability to learn and make predictions based on complex data sets.Thus,this research utilised advanced machine learning techniques to predict the distribution of PCN species under climate change conditions,providing the initial element for invasion risk assessment.We first used Global Climate Models to generate homogeneous climate predictors to mitigate the variation among predictors.Then,five machine learning models were employed to build two groups of ensembles,single-algorithm ensembles(ESA)and multi-algorithm ensembles(EMA),and compared their performances.In this research,the EMA did not always perform better than the ESA,and the ESA of Artificial Neural Network gave the highest performance while being cost-effective.Prediction results indicated that the distribution range of PCNs would shift northward with a decrease in tropical zones and an increase in northern latitudes.However,the total area of suitable regions will not change significantly,occupying 16-20%of the total land surface(18%under current conditions).This research alerts policymakers and practitioners to the risk of PCNs’incursion into new regions.Additionally,this ML process offers the capability to track changes in the distribution of various species and provides scientifically grounded evidence for formulating long-term biosecurity plans for their control.

Mapping the potential distribution suitability of 16 tree species under climate change in northeastern China using Maxent modelling

Knowledge on the potential suitability of tree species to the site is very important for forest management planning.Natural forest distribution provides a good reference for afforestation and forest restoration.In this study,we developed species distribution model(SDM)for 16 major tree species with 2,825 permanent sample plots with natural origin from Chinese National Forest Inventory data collected in Jilin Province using the Maxent model.Three types of environmental factors including bioclimate,soil and topography with a total of 33 variables were tested as the input.The values of area under the curve(AUC,one of the receiver operating characteristics of the Maxent model)in the training and test datasets were between 0.784 and 0.968,indicating that the prediction results were quite reliable.The environmental factors affecting the distribution of species were ranked in terms of their importance to the species distribution.Generally,the climatic factors had the greatest contribution,which included mean diurnal range,annual mean temperature,temperature annual range,and iosthermality.But the main environmental factors varied with tree species.Distribution suitability maps under current(1950-2000)and future climate scenarios(CCSM4-RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 during 2050)were produced for 16 major tree species in Jilin Province using the model developed.The predicted current and future ranges of habitat suitability of the 16 tree species are likely to be positively and negatively affected by future climate.Seven tree species were found to benefit from future climate including B etula costata,Fraxinus mandshurica,Juglans mandshurica,Phellodendron amurense,Populus ussuriensis,Quercus mongolica and Ulmus pumila;five tree species will experience decline in their suitable habitat including B.platyphylla,Tilia mongolica,Picea asperata,Pinus sylvestris,Pinus koraiensis;and four(Salix koreensis,Abies fabri,Pinus densiflora and Larix olgensis)showed the inconsistency under RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 scenarios.The maps of the habitat suitability can be used as a basis for afforestation and forest restoration in northeastern China.The SDMs could be a potential tool for forest management planning.

Mapping the current and future distributions of Onosma species endemic to Iran

Climate change may cause shifts in the natural range of species especially for those that are geographically restricted and/or endemic species.In this study,the spatial distribution of five endemic and threatened species belonging to the genus Onosma(including O.asperrima,O.bisotunensis,O.kotschyi,O.platyphylla,and O.straussii)was investigated under present and future climate change scenarios:RCP2.6(RCP,representative concentration pathway;optimistic scenario)and RCP8.5(pessimistic scenario)for the years 2050 and 2080 in Iran.Analysis was conducted using the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model to provide a basis for the protection and conservation of these species.Seven environmental variables including aspect,depth of soil,silt content,slope,annual precipitation,minimum temperature of the coldest month,and annual temperature range were used as main predictors in this study.The model output for the potential habitat suitability of the studied species showed acceptable performance for all species(i.e.,the area under the curve(AUC)>0.800).According to the models generated by MaxEnt,the potential current patterns of the species were consistent with the observed areas of distributions.The projected climate maps under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios(RCP2.6 and RCP8.5,respectively)of 2050 and 2080 resulted in reductions and expansions as well as positive range changes for all species in comparison to their current predicted distributions.Among all species,O.bisotunensis showed the most significant and highest increase under the pessimistic scenario of 2050 and 2080.Finally,the results of this study revealed that the studied plant species have shown an acute adaptability to environmental changes.The results can provide useful information to managers to apply appropriate strategies for the management and conservation of these valuable Iranian medicinal and threatened plant species in the future.

Eff ects of climate change on the potential habitat distribution of swimming crab Portunus trituberculatus under the species distribution model

Over the last decades,the species distribution model(SDM)has become an essential tool for studying the potential eff ects of climate change on species distribution.In this study,an ensemble SDM was developed to predict the changes in species distribution of swimming crab Portunus trituberculatus across diff erent seasons in the future(2050s and 2100s)under the climate scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5.Results of the ensemble SDM indicate that the distribution of this species will move northward and exhibit evident seasonal variations.Among the four seasons,the suitable habitat for this species will be signifi cantly reduced in summer,with loss rates ranging from 45.23%(RCP4.5)to 88.26%(RCP.8.5)by the 2100s.The loss of habitat will mostly occur in the East China Sea and the southern part of the Yellow Sea,while a slight increase in habitat will occur in the northern part of the Bohai Sea.These fi ndings provide an information forecast for this species in the future.Such forecast will be helpful in improving fi shery management under climate change.

Using remotely sensed and climate data to predict the current and potential future geographic distribution of a bird at multiple scales: the case of Agelastes meleagrides, a western African forest endemic

Background:Understanding geographic distributions of species is a crucial step in spatial planning for biodiversity conservation, particularly as regards changes in response to global climate change.This information is especially important for species of global conservation concern that are susceptible to the effects of habitat loss and climate change. In this study, we used ecological niche modeling to assess the current and future geographic distributional potential of White.breasted Guineafowl (Agelastes meleagrides)(Vulnerable) across West Africa. Methods:We used primary occurrence data obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and national parks in Liberia and Sierra Leone, and two independent environmental datasets (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer normalized difference vegetation index at 250 m spatial resolution, and Worldclim climate data at 2.5' spatial resolution for two representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios and 27 general circulation models for 2050) to build ecological niche models in Maxent. Results: From the projections, White.breasted Guineafowl showed a broader potential distribution across the region compared to the current IUCN range estimate for the species. Suitable areas were concentrated in the Gola rainforests in northwestern Liberia and southeastern Sierra Leone, the Tai.Sapo corridor in southeastern Liberia and southwestern Cote d'lvoire, and the Nimba Mountains in northern Liberia, southeastern Guinea, and northwestern Cote d'lvoire.Future climate.driven projections anticipated minimal range shifts in response to climate change. Conclusions: By combining remotely sensed data and climatic data, our results suggest that forest cover, rather than climate is the major driver of the species' current distribution. Thus, conservation efforts should prioritize forest protection and mitigation of other anthropogenic threats (e.g.hunting pressure) affecting the species.

Historical biogeography and evolutionary diversification of Lilium(Liliaceae): New insights from plastome phylogenomics

Here, we infer the historical biogeography and evolutionary diversification of the genus Lilium. For this purpose, we used the complete plastomes of 64 currently accepted species in the genus Lilium(14plastomes were newly sequenced) to recover the phylogenetic backbone of the genus and a timecalibrated phylogenetic framework to estimate biogeographical history scenarios and evolutionary diversification rates of Lilium. Our results suggest that ancient climatic changes and geological tectonic activities jointly shaped the distribution range and drove evolutionary radiation of Lilium, including the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum(MMCO), the late Miocene global cooling, as well as the successive uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP) and the strengthening of the monsoon climate in East Asia during the late Miocene and the Pliocene. This case study suggests that the unique geological and climatic events in the Neogene of East Asia, in particular the uplift of QTP and the enhancement of monsoonal climate, may have played an essential role in formation of uneven distribution of plant diversity in the Northern Hemisphere.

Climate-change habitat shifts for the vulnerable endemic oak species(Quercus arkansana Sarg.)

Quercus arkansana(Arkansas oak)is at risk of becoming endangered,as the total known population size is represented by a few isolated populations.The potential impact of climate change on this species in the near future is high,yet knowledge of its predicted effects is limited.Our study utilized the biomod2 R package to develop habi-tat suitability ensemble models based on bioclimatic and topographic environmental variables and the known loca-tions of current distribution of Q.arkansana.We predicted suitable habitats across three climate change scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)for 2050,2070,and 2090.Our findings reveal that the current suitable habitat for Q.arkansana is approximately 127,881 km^(2) across seven states(Texas,Arkansas,Alabama,Louisiana,Mississippi,Georgia,and Florida);approximately 9.5%is encompassed within state and federally managed protected areas.Our models predict that all current suitable habitats will disap-pear by 2050 due to climate change,resulting in a northward shift into new regions such as Tennessee and Kentucky.The large extent of suitable habitat outside protected areas sug-gests that a species-specific action plan incorporating pro-tected areas and other areas may be crucial for its conserva-tion.Moreover,protection of Q.arkansana habitat against climate change may require locally and regionally focused conservation policies,adaptive management strategies,and educational outreach among local people.

Elevation gradient distribution of indices of tree population in a montane forest:The role of leaf traits and the environment

Background:To disentangle the controls on species distribution in the context of climate change is a central element in proposed strategies to maintain species diversity.However,previous studies have focused mainly on the roles of abiotic factors(e.g.,climate and soil properties),with much less attention given to the roles of biotic factors such as functional traits.Here,we measured eight leaf traits for 240 individual trees of 53 species and analyzed the variation in traits and population composition indices and their relationships with soil properties,climate factors,and leaf traits.Results:The tree density,frequency and species importance values of the overall species and saplings significantly increased with increasing elevation,while the same indices(except for species frequency)of adults did not significantly change.The largest percentage of variation of species importance value(greater than 50%)was explained by climate,but leaf traits played a critical role in driving elevation distribution patterns of both saplings and adults;the abundance of saplings significantly increased with elevation,with increased leaf carbon contents,while the abundance of adults did not change in accordance with a nutrient conservation strategy associated with the leaf economic spectrum.Conclusions:Our results suggest that the elevation gradient distribution of woody plant species is dependent on tree size and that local atmospheric humidity and leaf traits cause considerable variation in species distribution along subtropical mountain elevations.We provide evidence of which leaf traits play a key role in the elevation gradient distribution of different sizes of woody tree species.

An evaluation of central Iran’s protected areas under different climate change scenarios (A Case on Markazi and Hamedan provinces)

Global climate change poses a new challenge for species and can even push some species toward an extinction vortex. The most affected organisms are those with narrow tolerance to the climatic factors but many large mammals such as ungulates with a wider ecological niche are also being affected indirectly. Our research mainly used wild sheep in central Iran as a model species to explore how the suitable habitats will change under different climatic scenarios and to determine if current borders of protected areas will adequately protect habitat requirements. To create habitat models we used animal-vehicle collision points as an input for species presence data. We ran habitat models using Max Ent modeling approach under different climatic scenarios of the past, present and future(under the climatic scenarios for minimum(RCP2.6) and maximum(RCP8.5) CO2 concentration trajectories). We tried to estimate the overlap and the width of the ecological niche using relevant metrics. In order to analyze the effectiveness of the protected areas, suitable maps were concerted to binary maps using True Skill Statistic(TSS) threshold and measured the similarity of the binary maps for each scenario using Kappa index. In order to assess the competence of the present protected areas boundary in covering the distribution of species, two different scenarios were employed, which are ensemble scenario 1: an ensemble of the binary maps of the species distribution in Mid-Holocene, present, and RCP2.6;and ensemble scenario 2: an ensemble of binary suitability maps in Mid-Holocene, present, and RCP8.5. Then, the borders of modeled habitats with the boundaries of 23 existing protected areas in two central provinces in Iran were compared. The predicted species distribution under scenario 1(RCP2.6) was mostly similar to its current distribution(Kappa = 0.53) while the output model under scenario 2(RCP8.5) indicated a decline in the species distribution range. Under the first ensemble scenario, current borders of the protected areas in Hamedan province showed better efficiency to cover the model species distribution range. Analyzing Max Ent spatial models under the second climatic scenario suggested that protected areas in both Markazi and Hamedan provinces will not cover "high suitability" areas in the future. Modeling the efficiency of the current protected areas under predicted future climatic scenarios can help the related authorities to plan conservation activities more efficiently.

Finer topographic data improves distribution modeling of Picea crassifolia in the northern Qilian Mountains

The Qilian Mountains, a national key ecological function zone in Western China, play a pivotal role in ecosystem services. However, the distribution of its dominant tree species, Picea crassifolia (Qinghai spruce), has decreased dramatically in the past decades due to climate change and human activity, which may have influenced its ecological functions. To restore its ecological functions, reasonable reforestation is the key measure. Many previous efforts have predicted the potential distribution of Picea crassifolia, which provides guidance on regional reforestation policy. However, all of them were performed at low spatial resolution, thus ignoring the natural characteristics of the patchy distribution of Picea crassifolia. Here, we modeled the distribution of Picea crassifolia with species distribution models at high spatial resolutions. For many models, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is larger than 0.9, suggesting their excellent precision. The AUC of models at 30 m is higher than that of models at 90 m, and the current potential distribution of Picea crassifolia is more closely aligned with its actual distribution at 30 m, demonstrating that finer data resolution improves model performance. Besides, for models at 90 m resolution, annual precipitation (Bio12) played the paramount influence on the distribution of Picea crassifolia, while the aspect became the most important one at 30 m, indicating the crucial role of finer topographic data in modeling species with patchy distribution. The current distribution of Picea crassifolia was concentrated in the northern and central parts of the study area, and this pattern will be maintained under future scenarios, although some habitat loss in the central parts and gain in the eastern regions is expected owing to increasing temperatures and precipitation. Our findings can guide protective and restoration strategies for the Qilian Mountains, which would benefit regional ecological balance.

Modeling the Potential Distribution of <i>Machilus thunbergii</i>under the Climate Change Patterns in China

The potential geographic distribution and favorable climatic conditions of Machilus thunbergii under current and future predicted climates in China are predicted based on MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software. The results show that the AUC values in different time periods and emission seniors are more than 0.9, which indicates the prediction is excellent. Precipitation of the coldest quarter, precipitation of the driest month, annual precipitation, mean diurnal range, and temperature annual range are the most important environmental factors affecting the distribution of Machilus thunbergii. At present, the suitable areas of Machilus thunbergii are mainly concentrated in the eastern subtropics of China, with a total area of 118.47 × 104 km2. The medium-suitability area and the high-suitability area are concentrated in Wuyi Mountains, Luoxiao Mountains, Xuefeng Mountains, Nanling and east of Taiwan Mountains. With the change of climate, the suitable area increases, and the medium-suitability area and high-suitability area migrate and expand to the east, and the low-suitability area expands slightly to the west and north. So, the simulated distribution of Machilus thunbergii should be one of priorities, when instigating in-situ conservation. The research results can provide a theoretical reference for the popularization and planting of Machilus thunbergii.

Distribution Changes of Chinese Skink(Eumeces chinensis) in China: the Impacts of Global Climate Change

Repaid global climate changes in temperature and rainfall influence the species distribution and diversity patterns.Chinse skink is a common species with large population and widely distribution in China.To access potential effect of climate changes on the unendangered species,we used the maximum-entropy modeling(MaxEnt)method to estimate the current and future potential distributions of Chinese Skink.Predictions were based on two periods(2050 and 2070),three general circulation models(GCMs:BCC-CSM1-1,HadGEM2-ES,MIROC5),four representative concentration pathways(RCP:2.6,4.5,6.0 and 8.0)and 28 environmental variables including topography,human impact,bio-climate and habitat.We found that the model were better fit with high values in AUC,KAPPA and TSS.The jackknife tests showed that variables of BIO9,BIO14,BIO15,HFI and GDP were relatively higher contributions to the model.Although the size of suitable areas for skink have less effect by future climate change under full and mull dispersal hypothesis,we should still focuse on the effect of human impact and climate changes on the protection and management for Chinese skink due to the variables uncertainty.

Limiting climatic factors in shaping the distribution pattern and niche differentiation of Prunus dielsiana in subtropical China

Subtropical forest in China has received much attention due to its complex geologic environment and bioclimatic heterogeneity.There have been very few studies addressing which climatic factors have shaped both distribution patterns and niche differentiation of species from this region.It also remains unclear whether phylogenetic niche conservatism retains in plant species from this biodiversityrich subtropical region in China.In this study,we used geographic occurrence records and bioclimatic factors of Prunus dielsiana(Rosaceae),a wild cherry species,combined with the classical ENM-based DIVA-GIS software to access contemporary distribution and richness patterns of its natural populations.The current distribution of P.dielsiana occupied a relatively wide range but exhibited an uneven pattern eastward in general,and the core distribution zone of its populations are projected to concentrate in the Wushan and Wuling Mountain ranges of western China.Hydrothermic variables,particularly the Temperature Seasonality(bio4)are screened out quantitatively to be the most influential factors that have shaped the current geographical patterns of P.dielsiana.By comparison with other sympatric families,climatic niche at regional scale showed a pattern of phylogenetic niche conservatism within cherry species of Ros aceae.The effect of habitat filtering from altitude is more significant than those of longitude and latitude.We conclude that habitat filtering dominated by limiting hydrothermic factors is the primary driving process of the diversity pattern of P.dielsiana in subtropical China.

Potential global distribution of the guava root-knot nematode Meloidogyne enterolobii under different climate change scenarios using MaxEnt ecological niche modeling

In recent years,Meloidogyne enterolobii has emerged as a major parasitic nematode infesting many plants in tropical or subtropical areas.However,the regions of potential distribution and the main contributing environmental variables for this nematode are unclear.Under the current climate scenario,we predicted the potential geographic distributions of M.enterolobii worldwide and in China using a Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt)model with the occurrence data of this species.Furthermore,the potential distributions of M.enterolobii were projected under three future climate scenarios(BCC-CSM2-MR,CanESM5 and CNRM-CM6-1)for the periods 2050s and 2090s.Changes in the potential distribution were also predicted under different climate conditions.The results showed that highly suitable regions for M.enterolobii were concentrated in Africa,South America,Asia,and North America between latitudes 30°S to 30°N.Bio16(precipitation of the wettest quarter),bio10(mean temperature of the warmest quarter),and bio11(mean temperature of the coldest quarter)were the variables contributing most in predicting potential distributions of M.enterolobii.In addition,the potential suitable areas for M.enterolobii will shift toward higher latitudes under future climate scenarios.This study provides a theoretical basis for controlling and managing this nematode.

Impact of climate change on potential habitat distribution of Sciaenidae in the coastal waters of China

Climate change has affected and will continue to affect the spatial distribution patterns of marine organisms.To understand the impact of climate change on the distribution patterns and species richness of the Sciaenidae in China’s coastal waters,the maximum entropy model was used to combine six environmental factors and predict the potential distribution of 12 major species of Sciaenidae by 2050s under Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs)2.6 and 8.5.The results showed that the average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model was 0.917,indicating that the model predictions were accurate and reliable.The main driving factors affecting the potential distribution of these fishes were dissolved oxygen,salinity,and sea surface temperature(SST).There was an overall northward shift in the potential habitat areas of these fishes under the two climate scenarios.The total potential habitat areas of Larimichthys polyactis,Pennahia argentata,and Pennahia pawak decreased under both climate scenarios,while the total habitat area of Johnius belengerii,Pennahia anea,Miichthys miiuy,Collichthys lucidus,and Collichthys niveatus increased,suggesting that these might be loser and winner species,respectively.The expansion rate,contraction rate,degree of centroid change,and species richness in the potential habitats were generally more significant under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6.The mean shift rates of the potential distribution were 41.50 km/(10 a) and 29.20 km/(10 a) under RCP8.5 and RCP2.6,respectively.The changes in Sciaenidae species richness under climate change were bounded by the Changjiang River Estuary waters,with obvious north-south differences.Some waters with increased species richness may become refuges for Sciaenidae fishes under climate change.The richness and habitat area change rate of some aquatic germplasm resources will decrease,meanings that these reserves are more sensitive to climate change,and more attention should be paid to the potential challenges and opportunities for fishery managers.This study may provide a scientific basis for the management and conservation of Sciaenidae in China under climate change.

The rapid climate change-caused dichotomy on subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest in Yunnan： Reduction in habitat diversity and increase in species diversity

Yunnan's biodiversity is under considerable pressure and subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in this area have become increasingly fragmented through agriculture,logging,planting of economic plants,mining activities and changing environment.The aims of the study are to investigate climate changeinduced changes of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in Yunnan and identify areas of current species richness centers for conservation preparation.Stacked species distribution models were created to generate ensemble forecasting of species distributions,alpha diversity and beta diversity for Yunnan's subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in both current and future climate scenarios.Under stacked species distribution models in rapid climate changes scenarios,changes of water-energy dynamics may possibly reduce beta diversity and increase alpha diversity.This point provides insight for future conservation of evergreen broad-leaved forest in Yunnan,highlighting the need to fully consider the problem of vegetation homogenization caused by transformation of water-energy dynamics.

Conservation of Quiver Trees in Namibia and South Africa under a Changing Climate

Aloe dichotoma (Quiver tree) occurs in the arid regions of Namaqualand and Bushman land in South Africa, and in arid regions of southern Namibia. The Quiver trees are not only threatened by agricultural expansion, overgrazing, and mining;but also by climate changes and droughts. Previous studies show that Quiver trees are very sensitive to environmental changes, and do not respond well to extreme hot and dry conditions. This study investigates the current status of the Quiver tree within its existing environment, and also assesses the projected future changes of the Quiver tree habitat under different climatic scenarios. It provided evidence regarding the importance of the study to understanding the climate change impacts on the Quiver tree and its geographical response to climate changes.

Phylogenetic conservatism in threatened species responses to climate change differs between functional types in the Gongga Mountains of China

Climate change has become one of the most critical threats to global biodiversity.However,whether phylogenetically related species respond to climate change in similar ways remains controversial.The answer to this question is crucial for understanding the impacts of climate change and the conservation on the tree of life.By integrating species distribution models with a molecular phylogeny of 50 threatened plant species from one of the global biodiversity hotspots,Gongga Mountains(Mt.Gongga)in southwest China,we evaluated the responses of threatened plant species to future climate change,and estimated whether species responses are phylogenetically conserved.Phylogenetic reconstruction was used to calculate the phylogenetic distance and null model to verify the reliability of the results.We found that correlations between responses of different species to future climate change decreased with the increase in their phylogenetic distance in the monocotyledonous or herbaceous species,but not in the dicotyledonous and woody species.Our results suggested that the responses of herbaceous and monocotyledonous threatened species in Mt.Gongga to future climate change tend to be phylogenetically conserved,while the responses of woody and dicotyledonous threatened species are not.Our study provides evidence for the existence of phylogenetically non-random extinction in the monocotyledonous herbs in Mt.Gongga and highlights the importance of integrating phylogenetic information and evolutionary history into conservation planning.We also provide theoretical basis and technical support for designing effective conservation schemes for the protection of biodiversity under anthropogenic climate change.

Modeling of cold-temperate tree Pinus koraiensis (Pinaceae) distribution in the Asia-Pacific region: Climate change impact

Background:Pinus koraiensis Siebold&Zucc.(Korean pine)is a key species of the mixed cold temperate forests of Northeast Asia.Current climate change can significantly worsen the quality of P.koraiensis habitats and therefore lead to a large-scale structural and functional transformation of the East Asian mixed forests.We built a species distribution model(SDM)for P.koraiensis using the random forest classifier–a versatile machine learning al-gorithm,to discover overlap areas of potential species occurrence in the climate condition of the Last Glacial Maximum(~21,000 year before present)and in the projected future climates(2070 year),from which possible permanent refugia for P.koraiensis were identified.Results:Using the random forest supervised learning algorithm,we developed models of the modern distribution of P.koraiensis in accordance with the five selected bioclimatic variables(Kira’s warmth and coldness indices,the index of continentality,the rain precipitation index,and the snow precipitation index).In addition to current climatic conditions,we performed this analysis for the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum and for the future projected climate(2070)under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5.Among the predictors,the rain index appears to be the most significant.The land area estimates with high suitability for P.koraiensis was 303,785 km 2 under current climatic conditions,586,499 km 2 for the Last Glacial Maximum,and 337,573 km^(2) for the future(2070)period under the RCP2.6 scenario,and 397,764 km^(2) under the RCP8.5 scenario.Conclusions:Most of the potential range of P.koraiensis during the Last Glacial Maximum was located outside the current distribution area of the species.The climatically suitable P.koraiensis habitats will likely disappear in the western part of its modern range.In the southern part of the range,which includes glacial refugia,the areas of continuous distribution of the P.koraiensis populations since the end of the Pleistocene are expected to be frag-mented,but some localities in the north of the Korean Peninsula,northeast China,southern Primorye(Russia),and central Honshu(Japan)with suitable climatic conditions for the species will support the existence of populations.

Climate change impacts the distribution of Quercus section Cyclobalanopsis(Fagaceae),a keystone lineage in East Asian evergreen broadleaved forests

East Asian evergreen broadleaved forests(EBFLs) harbor high species richness,but these ecosystems are severely impacted by global climate change and deforestation.Conserving and managing EBLFs requires understanding dominant tree distribution dynamics.In this study,we used 29 species in Quercus section Cyclobalanopsis-a keystone lineage in East Asian EBLFs-as proxies to predict EBLF distribution dynamics using species distribution models(SDMs).We examined climatic niche overlap,similarity,and equivalency among seven biogeographical regions’ species using’ecospat’.We also estimated the effectiveness of protected areas in the predicted range to elucidate priority conservation regions.Our results showed that the climatic niches of most geographical groups differ.The western species under the Indian summer monsoon regime were mainly impacted by temperature factors,whereas precipitation impacted the eastern species under the East Asian summer monsoon regime.Our simulation predicted a northward range expansion of section Cyclobalanopsis between 2081 and 2100,except for the ranges of the three Himalayan species analyzed,which might shrink significantly.The greatest shift of highly suitable areas was predicted for the species in the South Pacific,with a centroid shift of over 300 km.Remarkably,only 7.56% of suitable habitat is currently inside protected areas,and the percentage is predicted to continue declining in the future.To better conserve Asian EBLFs,establishing nature reserves in their northern distribution ranges,and transplanting the populations with predicted decreasing numbers and degraded habitats to their future highly suitable areas,should be high-priority objectives.