Structural Reliability Analysis Method in Fuzzy Environment

In this paper, the fuzzy-set-based structural possibility theory is investigated, and this theory can be used to deal with the subjective uncertainties in the design of engineering structures. Furthermore, a comprehensive model of structural safety assessment, which can merge subjective uncertainties with objective uncertainties, is presented. In this model, the fuzziness of stress-strength inference model, safety margin functions of single or multiple limit-state, structural failure state and the final assessment result are taken into account. This continuous model can be transformed into an equivalent model of probability-based and solved by the present structural reliability analysis method and parallel algorithm. An example is given to show the main idea of the method presented in this paper.

Human Reliability Analysis Method on Armored Vehicle System Considering Error Correction

Human reliability analysis(HRA) is an expansion of man-machine engineering. It is also a new multidisciplinary based on behavioral science, cognitive science, information processing, system analysis and probability statistics in order to analyze, predict, reduce and prevent human errors. Firstly, the quantitative analysis model of HRA is proposed based on Markov process theory by using human error probability(HEP) and error correction cycle(ECC) as parameters. And human reliability evaluation criterion is built. Then, the HRA process considering error correction is proposed based on cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM). Finally, according to the characteristics of armored vehicle system, common performance condition(CPC) in CREAM is improved.A reliability impact index is characterized by the overall contexts of tasks. Human reliability evaluation criterion of armored vehicle system is formulated. And the result of HRA is obtained based on the method presented in this paper. In addition, the relative weights are estimated by combining scale of 10/10—18/2 and analytical hierarchy process(AHP), and the triangular fuzzy number considering confidence factor and optimism index is adopted in order to reduce the subjectivity. The analysis results show that the method presented in this paper is reasonable and feasible. Meantime, the method can provide guidance for human reliability analysis of other weapon systems.

PROBABILISTIC METHODOLOGY OF LOW CYCLE FATIGUE ANALYSIS

The cyclic stress-strain responses (CSSR), Neuber's rule (NR) and cyclic strain-life relation (CSLR) are treated as probabilistic curves in local stress and strain method of low cycle fatigue analysis. The randomness of loading and the theory of fatigue damage accumulation (TOFDA) are considered. The probabilistic analysis of local stress, local strain and fatigue life are constructed based on the first-order Taylor's series expansions. Through this method proposed fatigue reliability analysis can be accomplished.

Quantitative Human Reliability Analysis for Crew During Shipping Operation

A simplified bi-variable human error probability calculation method is developed by incorporating two common performance condition( CPC) factors, which are modified from factors employed in cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM) to take into account the characteristics of shipping operations. After the influencing factors are identified, Markov method is used to calculate the values of human reliability. The proposed method does not rely on the involvement of experts in the field of human factor nor depend on historical accidents or human error statistics. It is applied to the case of the crew on board of an ocean going dry bulk carrier. The caculated results agree with the actual case, which verifies the validity of the model.

Reliability and sensitivity analyses of HPT blade-tip radial running clearance using multiply response surface model

To reasonably design the blade-tip radial running clearance(BTRRC) of high pressure turbine and improve the performance and reliability of gas turbine, the multi-object multi-discipline reliability sensitivity analysis of BTRRC was accomplished from a probabilistic prospective by considering nonlinear material attributes and dynamic loads. Firstly, multiply response surface model(MRSM) was proposed and the mathematical model of this method was established based on quadratic function. Secondly, the BTRRC was decomposed into three sub-components(turbine disk, blade and casing), and then the single response surface functions(SRSFs) of three structures were built in line with the basic idea of MRSM. Thirdly, the response surface function(MRSM) of BTRRC was reshaped by coordinating SRSFs. From the analysis, it is acquired to probabilistic distribution characteristics of input-output variables, failure probabilities of blade-tip clearance under different static blade-tip clearances δ and major factors impacting BTRRC. Considering the reliability and efficiency of gas turbine, δ=1.87 mm is an optimally acceptable option for rational BTRRC. Through the comparison of three analysis methods(Monte Carlo method, traditional response surface method and MRSM), the results show that MRSM has higher accuracy and higher efficiency in reliability sensitivity analysis of BTRRC. These strengths are likely to become more prominent with the increasing times of simulations. The present study offers an effective and promising approach for reliability sensitivity analysis and optimal design of complex dynamic assembly relationship.

THE RANDOM VARIATIONAL PRINCIPLE IN FINITE DEFORMATION OF ELASTICITY AND FINITE ELEMENT METHOD

In the present paper, we hare mtroduced the random materials. loads. geometricalshapes, force and displacement boundary condition directly. into the functionalvariational formula, by. use of a small parameter perturbation method, a unifiedrandom variational principle in finite defomation of elastieity and nonlinear randomfinite element method are esiablished, and used.for reliability, analysis of structures.Numerical examples showed that the methods have the advontages of simple andconvenient program implementation and are effective for the probabilistic problems inmechanics.

An Evaluation of Human Error Probabilities for Critical Failures in Auxiliary Systems of Marine Diesel Engines

Human error,an important factor,may lead to serious results in various operational fields.The human factor plays a critical role in the risks and hazards of the maritime industry.A ship can achieve safe navigation when all operations in the engine room are conducted vigilantly.This paper presents a systematic evaluation of 20 failures in auxiliary systems of marine diesel engines that may be caused by human error.The Cognitive Reliability Error Analysis Method(CREAM)is used to determine the potentiality of human errors in the failures implied thanks to the answers of experts.Using this method,the probabilities of human error on failures were evaluated and the critical ones were emphasized.The measures to be taken for these results will make significant contributions not only to the seafarers but also to the ship owners.