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Reliability Assessment of Distribution SystemBased on Discrete-event System 被引量:1
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作者 丁屹峰 程浩忠 +2 位作者 陈春霖 江峰青 房龄峰 《Journal of Donghua University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2004年第4期58-61,共4页
Discrete-event system simulation technology is used to analyze distribution system reliability in this paper. A simulation model, including entity state models, system state models, state transition models, reliabilit... Discrete-event system simulation technology is used to analyze distribution system reliability in this paper. A simulation model, including entity state models, system state models, state transition models, reliability criterion model, is established. ‘Next happen event’ is taken as impulse principle of simulator clock to determine the sequence of random event occurrence dynamically. The results show this method is feasible. 展开更多
关键词 distribution system reliability assessment discrete-event system.
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Reliability analysis of extended generalized inverted exponential distribution with applications
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作者 Arwa M.Alshangiti M.Kayid M.Almulhim 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2016年第2期484-492,共9页
A general version of the inverted exponential distribution is introduced, studied and analyzed. This generalization depends on the method of Marshall-Olkin to extend a family of distributions. Some statistical and rel... A general version of the inverted exponential distribution is introduced, studied and analyzed. This generalization depends on the method of Marshall-Olkin to extend a family of distributions. Some statistical and reliability properties of this family are studied. In addition, numerical estimation of the maximum likelihood estimate(MLE) parameters are discussed in details. As an application, some real data sets are analyzed and it is observed that the presented family provides a better fit than some other known distributions. 展开更多
关键词 inverted exponential distribution reliability properties statistical properties maximum likelihood estimates applications
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Robust and Efficient Reliability Estimation for Exponential Distribution
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作者 Muhammad Aslam Mohd Safari Nurulkamal Masseran Muhammad Hilmi Abdul Majid 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2021年第11期2807-2824,共18页
In modeling reliability data,the exponential distribution is commonly used due to its simplicity.For estimating the parameter of the exponential distribution,classical estimators including maximum likelihood estimator... In modeling reliability data,the exponential distribution is commonly used due to its simplicity.For estimating the parameter of the exponential distribution,classical estimators including maximum likelihood estimator represent the most commonly used method and are well known to be efficient.However,the maximum likelihood estimator is highly sensitive in the presence of contamination or outliers.In this study,a robust and efficient estimator of the exponential distribution parameter was proposed based on the probability integral transform statistic.To examine the robustness of this new estimator,asymptotic variance,breakdown point,and gross error sensitivity were derived.This new estimator offers reasonable protection against outliers besides being simple to compute.Furthermore,a simulation study was conducted to compare the performance of this new estimator with the maximum likelihood estimator,weighted likelihood estimator,and M-scale estimator in the presence of outliers.Finally,a statistical analysis of three reliability data sets was conducted to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimator. 展开更多
关键词 exponential distribution M-ESTIMATOR probability integral transform statistic robust estimation reliability
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Imprecise Reliability Assessment for Heavy Numerical Control Machine Tools Against Small Sample Size Problem 被引量:2
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作者 刘征 李彦锋 黄洪钟 《Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong university(Science)》 EI 2016年第5期605-610,共6页
Small sample size problem is one of the main problems that heavy numerical control(NC) machine tools encounter in their reliability assessment. In order to deal with the small sample size problem, many indirect reliab... Small sample size problem is one of the main problems that heavy numerical control(NC) machine tools encounter in their reliability assessment. In order to deal with the small sample size problem, many indirect reliability data such as reliability data of similar products, expert opinion, and engineers' experience are used in reliability assessment. However, the existing mathematical theories cannot simultaneously process the above reliability data of multiple types, and thus imprecise probability theory is introduced. Imprecise probability theory can simultaneously process multiple reliability data by quantifying multiple uncertainties(stochastic uncertainty,fuzzy uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, etc.) together. Although imprecise probability theory has so many advantages, the existing natural extension models are complex and the computation result is imprecise. Therefore,they need some improvement for the better application of reliability engineering. This paper proposes an improved imprecise reliability assessment method by introducing empirical probability distributions to natural extension model, and the improved natural extension model is applied to the reliability assessment of heavy NC machine tool spindle to illustrate its effectiveness. 展开更多
关键词 reliability assessment natural extension model empirical probability distribution machine tool spindle
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Bayesian Assessment for Reliability of Binomial Components Based on Information Fusion of Similar Products 被引量:1
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作者 张洋 陈浩 +1 位作者 蒋平 郭波 《Journal of Donghua University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2015年第6期940-945,共6页
A modified Bayesian reliability assessment method of binomial components was proposed by fusing prior information of similar products.The traditional Bayesian method usually directly used all the prior data,ignoring t... A modified Bayesian reliability assessment method of binomial components was proposed by fusing prior information of similar products.The traditional Bayesian method usually directly used all the prior data,ignoring the differences between them,which might decrease the credibility level of reliability evaluation and result in data submergence.To solve the problem,a revised approach was derived to calculate groups of prior data's quantitative credibility,used for weighted data fusion.Then inheritance factor was introduced to build a mixed beta distribution to illustrate the innovation of new products.However,in many cases,inheritance factor was determined by Chi-square test that could not give out exact result with respect to rare failures.To make the model more precise,Barnard's exact test was suggested being used to calculate the inheritance factor.A numerical example is given to demonstrate that the modified method is successful and rational,while the classical method is too conservative and the traditional Bayesian method is too risky. 展开更多
关键词 Bayesian reliability assessment information fusion CREDIBILITY inheritance factor mixed beta distribution
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Improved Reliability Analysis Method Based on the Failure Assessment Diagram 被引量:9
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作者 ZHOU Yu ZHANG Zheng ZHONG Qunpeng 《Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2012年第4期832-837,共6页
With the uncertainties related to operating conditions,in-service non-destructive testing(NDT) measurements and material properties considered in the structural integrity assessment,probabilistic analysis based on t... With the uncertainties related to operating conditions,in-service non-destructive testing(NDT) measurements and material properties considered in the structural integrity assessment,probabilistic analysis based on the failure assessment diagram(FAD) approach has recently become an important concern.However,the point density revealing the probabilistic distribution characteristics of the assessment points is usually ignored.To obtain more detailed and direct knowledge from the reliability analysis,an improved probabilistic fracture mechanics(PFM) assessment method is proposed.By integrating 2D kernel density estimation(KDE) technology into the traditional probabilistic assessment,the probabilistic density of the randomly distributed assessment points is visualized in the assessment diagram.Moreover,a modified interval sensitivity analysis is implemented and compared with probabilistic sensitivity analysis.The improved reliability analysis method is applied to the assessment of a high pressure pipe containing an axial internal semi-elliptical surface crack.The results indicate that these two methods can give consistent sensitivities of input parameters,but the interval sensitivity analysis is computationally more efficient.Meanwhile,the point density distribution and its contour are plotted in the FAD,thereby better revealing the characteristics of PFM assessment.This study provides a powerful tool for the reliability analysis of critical structures. 展开更多
关键词 reliability analysis failure assessment diagram probabilistic fracture mechanics kernel density estimation sensitivity analysis
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Bayesian sequential testing for exponential life system with reliability growth 被引量:4
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作者 Yunyan Xing Xiaoyue Wu 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2011年第6期1023-1029,共7页
A Bayesian sequential testing method is proposed to evaluate system reliability index with reliability growth during development.The method develops a reliability growth model of repairable systems for failure censore... A Bayesian sequential testing method is proposed to evaluate system reliability index with reliability growth during development.The method develops a reliability growth model of repairable systems for failure censored test,and figures out the approach to determine the prior distribution of the system failure rate by applying the reliability growth model to incorporate the multistage test data collected from system development.Furthermore,the procedure for the Bayesian sequential testing is derived for the failure rate of the exponential life system,which enables the decision to terminate or continue development test.Finally,a numerical example is given to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed model and procedure. 展开更多
关键词 reliability growth Bayesian method prior distribution sequential testing exponential life system.
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Reliability evaluation of bladder accumulator with no failure data 被引量:1
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作者 郭锐 Zhang Rongbing +2 位作者 Zhao Jingyi Zhou Jinsheng Zhang Zhenmiao 《High Technology Letters》 EI CAS 2018年第3期322-329,共8页
As a bladder accumulator is a high reliable and long life component in a hydraulic system,its cost is high and it takes a lot of time to test its reliability,therefore,a reliability test with small sample is performed... As a bladder accumulator is a high reliable and long life component in a hydraulic system,its cost is high and it takes a lot of time to test its reliability,therefore,a reliability test with small sample is performed,and no failure data is obtained using the method of fixed time truncation. In the case of Weibull distribution,a life reliability model of bladder energy storage is established by Bayesian method using the optimal confidence intervals method,a model of one-sided lower confidence intervals of the reliability and one-sided lower confidence intervals model of the reliability life are established. Results of experiments show that the evaluation method of no failure data under Weibull distribution is a good way to evaluate the reliability of the accumulator,which is convenient for engineering application,and the reliability of the accumulator has theoretical and practical significance. 展开更多
关键词 bladder accumulator Weibull distribution fixed time truncation no failure data reliability assessment
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DISTRIBUTED MONITORING SYSTEM RELIABILITY ESTIMATION WITH CONSIDERATION OF STATISTICAL UNCERTAINTY 被引量:2
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作者 Yi Pengxing Yang Shuzi Du Runsheng Wu Bo Liu Shiyuan 《Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2005年第4期519-524,共6页
Taking into account the whole system structure and the component reliability estimation uncertainty, a system reliability estimation method based on probability and statistical theory for distributed monitoring system... Taking into account the whole system structure and the component reliability estimation uncertainty, a system reliability estimation method based on probability and statistical theory for distributed monitoring systems is presented. The variance and confidence intervals of the system reliability estimation are obtained by expressing system reliability as a linear sum of products of higher order moments of component reliability estimates when the number of component or system survivals obeys binomial distribution. The eigenfunction of binomial distribution is used to determine the moments of component reliability estimates, and a symbolic matrix which can facilitate the search of explicit system reliability estimates is proposed. Furthermore, a case of application is used to illustrate the procedure, and with the help of this example, various issues such as the applicability of this estimation model, and measures to improve system reliability of monitoring systems are discussed. 展开更多
关键词 Distributed monitoring system Statistical uncertainty Variance Confidence intervals System reliability estimation
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Interval Estimation for the Stress-Strength Reliability with Bivariate Normal Variables 被引量:1
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作者 Pierre Nguimkeu Marie Rekkas Augustine Wong 《Open Journal of Statistics》 2014年第8期630-640,共11页
We propose a procedure to obtain accurate confidence intervals for the stress-strength reliability R = P (X > Y) when (X, Y) is a bivariate normal distribution with unknown means and covariance matrix. Our method i... We propose a procedure to obtain accurate confidence intervals for the stress-strength reliability R = P (X > Y) when (X, Y) is a bivariate normal distribution with unknown means and covariance matrix. Our method is more accurate than standard methods as it possesses a third-order distributional accuracy. Simulations studies are provided to show the performance of the proposed method relative to existing ones in terms of coverage probability and average length. An empirical example is given to illustrate its usefulness in practice. 展开更多
关键词 BIVARIATE NORMAL distribution INTERVAL Estimation LIKELIHOOD Analysis reliability
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Progress in Theoretical Research on Reliability for China's Space Engineering
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作者 He GuoweiMinistry of Aero-Space Industry, P.O. Box 838 Beijing (100830), China 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 1991年第1期1-28,共28页
With the support of the Fundamental Reliability Theoretical Research (FRTR) Foundation of the Quality Control Bureau of Ministry of Astronautics (MOA), PRC, 9 Chinese institutes and universities have worked for years ... With the support of the Fundamental Reliability Theoretical Research (FRTR) Foundation of the Quality Control Bureau of Ministry of Astronautics (MOA), PRC, 9 Chinese institutes and universities have worked for years on reliability statistics problems pending to be solved in space research and development. This paper gives a brief review of our main research results, including (1) Results on Normal Distributions; (2) Results on Weibull Distributions; (3) Results on the Synthesisof System Reliability-Theoretical Method; (4) Results on the Synthesis of System Reliability-Approximation Method: Binomial Distribution, Exponential Distribution, Weibull Distribution, Parallel System, General Cases; (5) Structual Reliability; (6) Zero-Failure Reliability Estimation; (7) Storage Life and Others. All these results can be acquired from the Quality Control Bureau of the Ministry of Aero-Space Industry (MAS). 展开更多
关键词 Normal distribution Weibull distribution Binomial distribution exponential distribution Parallel system Structural reliability Zero-failure reliability estimation Storage life System reliability synthesis reliability theory.
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Improving Energy and Power Efficiency Using NComputing and Approaches for Predicting Reliability of Complex Computing Systems
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作者 Hoang Pham Hoang Pham Jr. 《International Journal of Automation and computing》 EI 2010年第2期153-159,共7页
Opting to follow the computing-design philosophy that the best way to reduce power consumption and increase energy efficiency is to reduce waste, we propose an architecture with a very simple ready-implementation by u... Opting to follow the computing-design philosophy that the best way to reduce power consumption and increase energy efficiency is to reduce waste, we propose an architecture with a very simple ready-implementation by using an NComputing device that can allow multi-users but only one computer is needed. This intuitively can save energy, space as well as cost. In this paper, we propose a simple and realistic NComputing architecture to study the energy and power-efficient consumption of desktop computer systems by using the NComputing device. We also propose new approaches to estimate the reliability of k-out-of-n systems based on the delta method. The k-out-of-n system consisting of n subsystems works if and only if at least k-of-the-n subsystems work. More specificly, we develop approaches to obtain the reliability estimation for the k-out-of-n systems which is composed of n independent and identically distributed subsystems where each subsystem (or energy-efficient usage application) can be assumed to follow a two-parameter exponential lifetime distribution function. The detailed derivations of reliability estimation of k-out-of-n systems based on the biased-corrected estimator, known as delta method, the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimate (UMVUE) and maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) are discussed. An energy-management NComputing application is discussed to illustrate the reliability results in terms of the energy consumption usages of a computer system with qua(t-core, 8 GB of RAM, and a GeForce 9800GX-2 graphics card to perform various complex applications. The estimated reliability values of systems based on the UMVUE and the delta method differ only slightly. Often the UMVUE of reliability for a complex system is a lot more difficult to obtain, if not impossible. The delta method seems to be a simple and better approach to obtain the reliability estimation of complex systems. The results of this study also show that, in practice, the NComputing architecture improves both energy cost saving and energy efficient living spaces. 展开更多
关键词 Energy efficiency Ncomputing k-out-of-n system exponential distribution reliability estimation uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimate (UMVUE) maximum likelihood estimate (MLE).
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Modeling Reliability Engineering Data Using Scale-Invariant Quasi-Inverse Lindley Model
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作者 Mohamed Kayid Tareq Alsayed 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2022年第7期1847-1860,共14页
An important property that any lifetime model should satisfy is scale invariance.In this paper,a new scale-invariant quasi-inverse Lindley(QIL)model is presented and studied.Its basic properties,including moments,quan... An important property that any lifetime model should satisfy is scale invariance.In this paper,a new scale-invariant quasi-inverse Lindley(QIL)model is presented and studied.Its basic properties,including moments,quantiles,skewness,kurtosis,and Lorenz curve,have been investigated.In addition,the well-known dynamic reliability measures,such as failure rate(FR),reversed failure rate(RFR),mean residual life(MRL),mean inactivity time(MIT),quantile residual life(QRL),and quantile inactivity time(QIT)are discussed.The FR function considers the decreasing or upside-down bathtub-shaped,and the MRL and median residual lifetime may have a bathtub-shaped form.The parameters of the model are estimated by applying the maximum likelihood method and the expectation-maximization(EM)algorithm.The EM algorithm is an iterative method suitable for models with a latent variable,for example,when we have mixture or competing risk models.A simulation study is then conducted to examine the consistency and efficiency of the estimators and compare them.The simulation study shows that the EM approach provides a better estimation of the parameters.Finally,the proposed model is fitted to a reliability engineering data set along with some alternatives.The Akaike information criterion(AIC),Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S),Cramer-von Mises(CVM),and Anderson Darling(AD)statistics are used to compare the considered models. 展开更多
关键词 Inverse Lindley distribution reliability measures maximum likelihood estimation EM algorithm
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The Exponential Flexible Weibull Extension Distribution
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作者 Beih S. El-Desouky Abdelfattah Mustafa Shamsan Al-Garash 《Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation》 2017年第1期83-97,共15页
This paper is devoted to study a new generalization of the flexible Weibull with three parameters. This model is referred to as the exponential flexible Weibull extension (EFWE) distribution which exhibits bathtub-sha... This paper is devoted to study a new generalization of the flexible Weibull with three parameters. This model is referred to as the exponential flexible Weibull extension (EFWE) distribution which exhibits bathtub-shaped hazard rate function. Some statistical properties such as the mode, median, the moment, quantile function, the moment generating function and order statistics are discussed. Moreover, the maximum likelihood method for estimating the model parameters and the Fisher’s information matrix is given. Finally, the advantage of the EFWE distribution is concluded by an application using real data. 展开更多
关键词 exponential FLEXIBLE Weibull exponential distribution FLEXIBLE Weibull distribution exponential Weibull reliability MOMENTS Estimation
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Reliability of a Multicomponent Stress-strength Model Based on a Bivariate Kumaraswamy Distribution with Censored Data
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作者 Cong-hua CHENG 《Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第2期478-507,共30页
In this paper,we consider a system which has k statistically independent and identically distributed strength components and each component is constructed by a pair of statistically dependent elements with doubly type... In this paper,we consider a system which has k statistically independent and identically distributed strength components and each component is constructed by a pair of statistically dependent elements with doubly type-II censored scheme.These elements(X1,Y1),(X2,Y2),…,(Xk,Yk)follow a bivariate Kumaraswamy distribution and each element is exposed to a common random stress T which follows a Kumaraswamy distribution.The system is regarded as operating only if at least s out of k(1≤s≤k)strength variables exceed the random stress.The multicomponent reliability of the system is given by Rs,k=P(at least s of the(Z1,…,Zk)exceed T)where Zi=min(Xi,Yi),i=1,…,k.The Bayes estimates of Rs,k have been developed by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods due to the lack of explicit forms.The uniformly minimum variance unbiased and exact Bayes estimates of Rs,k are obtained analytically when the common second shape parameter is known.The asymptotic confidence interval and the highest probability density credible interval are constructed for Rs,k.The reliability estimators are compared by using the estimated risks through Monte Carlo simulations. 展开更多
关键词 stress-strength model bivariate Kumaraswamy distribution multicomponent reliability doubly Type-II censored scheme interval estimation
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Risk Assessment Framework and Algorithm of Power Systems Based on the Partitioned Multi-objective Risk Method 被引量:11
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作者 XIE Shaoyu WANG Xiuli WANG Xifan 《中国电机工程学报》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2011年第34期I0005-I0005,7,共1页
针对平均风险指标无法区分高损失-低概率事件及低损失-高概率事件的缺点,提出了电力系统的分割多目标风险分析框架。该框架将电力系统的风险状态细分为低损失、中等损失和高损失3个风险范围,并提出3个损失范围条件风险函数和条件风险概... 针对平均风险指标无法区分高损失-低概率事件及低损失-高概率事件的缺点,提出了电力系统的分割多目标风险分析框架。该框架将电力系统的风险状态细分为低损失、中等损失和高损失3个风险范围,并提出3个损失范围条件风险函数和条件风险概率的概念。采用经典的容量停运表模型,建立了这些条件期望指标的计算方法。对IEEE-RTS及TH-RTS2000系统进行了分割多目标风险评估,研究不同负荷水平下系统风险在3个损失范围的分布及转移情况,并分析损失分割点对系统风险的影响。通过分割多目标风险分析,风险分析者和决策者可以权衡系统的平均风险以及高、中、低损失范围的条件期望风险,从而对系统的风险状况有一个全面和深入的了解。 展开更多
关键词 英文摘要 内容介绍 编辑工作 期刊
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Bayesian Estimation and Prediction for the Maxwell Failure Distribution Based on Type II Censored Data 被引量:1
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作者 Anwar M. Hossain Gabriel Huerta 《Open Journal of Statistics》 2016年第1期49-60,共12页
We present Bayes estimators, highest posterior density (HPD) intervals, and maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs), for the Maxwell failure distribution based on Type II censored data, i.e. using the first r lifetimes f... We present Bayes estimators, highest posterior density (HPD) intervals, and maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs), for the Maxwell failure distribution based on Type II censored data, i.e. using the first r lifetimes from a group of n components under test. Reliability/Hazard function estimates, Bayes predictive distributions and highest posterior density prediction intervals for a future observation are also considered. Two data examples and a Monte Carlo simulation study are used to illustrate the results and to compare the performances of the different methods. 展开更多
关键词 Bayes Estimator HPD Interval Maxwell distribution MLE PREDICTION reliability Function
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Parameter Estimation of Mixed Weibull Distributions Using Cuckoo Search
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作者 池阔 王广彦 +1 位作者 康建设 吴坤 《Journal of Donghua University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2016年第2期235-238,共4页
The lifetime data of products with multiple failure modes which are collected from life testing are often fitted by the mixed Weibull distributions. Since the mixed Weibull distributions contain no less than five para... The lifetime data of products with multiple failure modes which are collected from life testing are often fitted by the mixed Weibull distributions. Since the mixed Weibull distributions contain no less than five parameters,the parameter estimation is difficult and inaccurate. In order to enhance the accuracy,a new method of parameter estimation based on Cuckoo search( CS) is proposed. An optimization model for the mixed Weibull distribution is formulated by minimizing the residual sum of squares. The optimal parameters are searched via CS algorithm. In the case study,the lifetime data come from the life testing of diesel injectors and are fitted by the twocomponent Weibull mixture. Regarding the maximum absolute error and the accumulative absolute error between estimated and observed values as the accuracy index of parameter estimation,the results of four parameter estimation methods that the graphic estimation method,the nonlinear least square method,the optimization method based on particle swarm optimization( PSO) and the proposed method are compared. The result shows that the proposed method is more efficient and more accurate than the other three methods. 展开更多
关键词 reliability mixed Weibull distribution parameter estimation Cuckoo search(CS)
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Inference and Properties of Mixture Two Extreme Lower Bound Distributions
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作者 Fathy H. Riad 《Engineering(科研)》 2017年第6期517-523,共7页
In this paper, we discuss the mixture model of two extreme lower bound distributions. First, some properties we obtain of the model with hazard function are discussed. In addition, the estimates of the unknown paramet... In this paper, we discuss the mixture model of two extreme lower bound distributions. First, some properties we obtain of the model with hazard function are discussed. In addition, the estimates of the unknown parameters via the EM algorithm are obtained. The performance of the findings in the paper is showed by demonstrating some numerical illustrations through Monte Carlo simulation. 展开更多
关键词 MIXTURE EXTREME Lower BOUND distribution reliability Estimation EM Algorithm MONTE Carlo Simulation
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New Method for Determining Characteristic Parameters of Normal Distribution
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作者 穆甫臣 谭长华 许铭真 《Journal of Semiconductors》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2000年第11期1060-1063,共4页
By proportional differentiating cumulative distribution function of normal distribution,the spectroscopy characteristics are found.The characteristic parameters can be extracted directly from the height and position o... By proportional differentiating cumulative distribution function of normal distribution,the spectroscopy characteristics are found.The characteristic parameters can be extracted directly from the height and position of the spectroscopy peaks.On this basis,a new method for determining these parameters of normal distribution is developed.This method can be applied to microelectronics reliability study. 展开更多
关键词 正交分布 可靠性 PDO 比例差估计
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