Reliability analysis of marine risers with narrow and long corrosion defects under combined loads

A marine riser,one of the most important components of offshore oil/gas transportation,needs to be designed to eliminate the risks caused by complex ocean environments,platform displacement and internal corrosion,etc.In this study,a new analytical-numerical assessment approach is proposed in order to quantitatively investigate the reliability of internally corroded risers under combined loads including axial tension and internal pressure.First,an analytical solution of the limit state function of intact risers under combined loads is obtained,which is further modified by the non-dimensional corrosion depth （d/ t） for the risers with a narrow and long corrosion defect.The relationship between d/t and limited internal pressure is obtained by finite element analysis and nonlinear regression.Through an advanced first-order reliability method （HL-RF） algorithm,reliability analysis is performed to obtain the failure probability,the reliability index and the sensitivity.These results are further verified by Monte-Carlo importance sampling.The proposed approach of reliability analysis provides an accurate and effective way to estimate the reliability of marine risers with narrow and long corrosion defects under combined loads.

Method for high reliability evaluation of explosive initiator based on sensitivity distribution order restricted theory

Based on the hypothesis testing theory and sampling inspection, and utilizing the distribution parameters obtained by order restricted method, the matter of reliability index verification is transformed into testing the scale parameters of distribution. Thus, a lower stimulus level is selected, and small sample size specimens are tested to verify the high reliability at required stimulus level. Analysis for mean square error of verification test stimulus level is taken, and the result demonstrates that it is reasonable to confirm the test scheme using the order restricted estimation. The new method is used for reliability verification of the stab detonator comparing with run-down method. The result shows that it is available for verification of high reliability explosive initiator by small sample size.

Simulation of strong earthquake characteristics of a scenario earthquake(M_(S)7.5)based on the enlightenment of 2022 M_(S)6.9 earthquake in Menyuan

The Menyuan area is an important transportation hub in the Hexi Corridor.The Menyuan M_(S)6.9 earthquake that occurred on January 8,2022 had a major impact on the local infrastructure and transportation of this region.Due to the high possibility of similar strong earthquakes occurring in this area in the future,preliminary assessment of the seismic intensity characteristics of destructive earthquakes in this region is essential for effective disaster control.This paper uses the empirical Green′s function(EGF)method as a numerical simulation tool to predict the ground motion intensity of Datong Autonomous County under the action of the scenario earthquake(M_(S)7.5).Seismic records of aftershocks of the 2016 Menyuan M_(S)6.4 earthquake were used as Green’s functions for this simulation.The uncertainties associated with various source parameters were considered,and 36possible earthquake scenarios were simulated to obtain 72 sets of horizontal ground motions in Datong County.The obtained peak ground acceleration(PGA)vs.time histories of the horizontal ground motion were screened using the attenuation relationships provided by the fifth-edition of China’s Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map and the NGA-West2dataset.Ultimately,32 possible acceleration-time histories were selected for further analysis.The screened PGA values ranged from 78.8 to 153 cm/s^(2).The uncertainty associated with the initial rupture point was found to greatly affect the results of the earthquake simulation.The average acceleration spectrum of the selected acceleration-time history exceeded the expected spectrum of a intermediate earthquake,which means that buildings in Datong County might sustain some damage should the scenario earthquake occur.This research can provide reliable ground motion input for urban earthquake damage simulation and seismic design in Datong County.Growing the dataset of small earthquakes recorded in this region will facilitate the large-scale simulation of ground motions under different earthquake scenarios.