IEC 62059 Standards' Application in Reliability Prediction and Verification of Smart Meters

This article introduces the current situation of the smart then describes the relationship of meter reliability characteristics meter＇s reliability and the failure mechanisms at first, and combined with its Bathtub Curve. It also introduces both the feasible failure tree model for meter lifecycle prediction based on actual experiences and meter reliability prediction methodology by SN 29500 norms based on this model. This article also brings forward that it is necessary that the ＂Learning Factor＂ shall be adopted in meter reliability prediction for new materials, new process, and customized parts by referring to GJB/Z299C. Thereafter, this article also tries to apply IEC 62059 and JB/T 50070 to introduce the feasible method for the lifecycle prediction result verification by accelerated lifecycle test. Furthermore, the article also explores ways to increase the firmware reliability in smart meter.

Efficient slope reliability and sensitivity analysis using quantile-based first-order second-moment method

This paper introduces a novel approach for parameter sensitivity evaluation and efficient slope reliability analysis based on quantile-based first-order second-moment method(QFOSM).The core principles of the QFOSM are elucidated geometrically from the perspective of expanding ellipsoids.Based on this geometric interpretation,the QFOSM is further extended to estimate sensitivity indices and assess the significance of various uncertain parameters involved in the slope system.The proposed method has the advantage of computational simplicity,akin to the conventional first-order second-moment method(FOSM),while providing estimation accuracy close to that of the first-order reliability method(FORM).Its performance is demonstrated with a numerical example and three slope examples.The results show that the proposed method can efficiently estimate the slope reliability and simultaneously evaluate the sensitivity of the uncertain parameters.The proposed method does not involve complex optimization or iteration required by the FORM.It can provide a valuable complement to the existing approximate reliability analysis methods,offering rapid sensitivity evaluation and slope reliability analysis.

Belief reliability:a scientific exploration of reliability engineering

This paper systematically introduces and reviews a scientific exploration of reliability called the belief reliability.Beginning with the origin of reliability engineering,the problems of present theories for reliability engineering are summarized as a query,a dilemma,and a puzzle.Then,through philosophical reflection,we introduce the theoretical solutions given by belief reliability theory,including scientific principles,basic equations,reliability science experiments,and mathematical measures.The basic methods and technologies of belief reliability,namely,belief reliability analysis,function-oriented belief reliability design,belief reliability evaluation,and several newly developed methods and technologies are sequentially elaborated and overviewed.Based on the above investigations,we summarize the significance of belief reliability theory and make some prospects about future research,aiming to promote the development of reliability science and engineering.

Interrater Reliability Estimation via Maximum Likelihood for Gwet’s Chance Agreement Model

Interrater reliability (IRR) statistics, like Cohen’s kappa, measure agreement between raters beyond what is expected by chance when classifying items into categories. While Cohen’s kappa has been widely used, it has several limitations, prompting development of Gwet’s agreement statistic, an alternative “kappa”statistic which models chance agreement via an “occasional guessing” model. However, we show that Gwet’s formula for estimating the proportion of agreement due to chance is itself biased for intermediate levels of agreement, despite overcoming limitations of Cohen’s kappa at high and low agreement levels. We derive a maximum likelihood estimator for the occasional guessing model that yields an unbiased estimator of the IRR, which we call the maximum likelihood kappa (κML). The key result is that the chance agreement probability under the occasional guessing model is simply equal to the observed rate of disagreement between raters. The κMLstatistic provides a theoretically principled approach to quantifying IRR that addresses limitations of previous κcoefficients. Given the widespread use of IRR measures, having an unbiased estimator is important for reliable inference across domains where rater judgments are analyzed.

Saddlepoint Approximation Method in Reliability Analysis:A Review

The escalating need for reliability analysis(RA)and reliability-based design optimization(RBDO)within engineering challenges has prompted the advancement of saddlepoint approximationmethods(SAM)tailored for such problems.This article offers a detailed overview of the general SAM and summarizes the method characteristics first.Subsequently,recent enhancements in the SAM theoretical framework are assessed.Notably,the mean value first-order saddlepoint approximation(MVFOSA)bears resemblance to the conceptual framework of the mean value second-order saddlepoint approximation(MVSOSA);the latter serves as an auxiliary approach to the former.Their distinction is rooted in the varying expansion orders of the performance function as implemented through the Taylor method.Both the saddlepoint approximation and third-moment(SATM)and saddlepoint approximation and fourth-moment(SAFM)strategies model the cumulant generating function(CGF)by leveraging the initial random moments of the function.Although their optimal application domains diverge,each method consistently ensures superior relative precision,enhanced efficiency,and sustained stability.Every method elucidated is exemplified through pertinent RA or RBDO scenarios.By juxtaposing them against alternative strategies,the efficacy of these methods becomes evident.The outcomes proffered are subsequently employed as a foundation for contemplating prospective theoretical and practical research endeavors concerning SAMs.The main purpose and value of this article is to review the SAM and reliability-related issues,which can provide some reference and inspiration for future research scholars in this field.

混合动力装载机复合储能系统6σ稳健设计

复合储能式混合动力装载机可以降低车辆燃油消耗,实现能量高效回收,但由于系统组成较为复杂、装载机工作环境恶劣且存在较多不确定性因素,使得整车运行的经济性无法达到最佳状态。为此,采用6σ稳健优化设计理论,对影响复合储能系统性能的参数进行优化设计,得到可靠性较高的优化参数;在4种常见工况下通过装载机的整车后向仿真模型对6σ算法的优化结果进行验证,发现整车燃油消耗量明显下降,4种工况的平均节油率分别为11.14%、10.30%、10.40%、11.38%;利用dSPACE硬件在环的试验方式验证了仿真结果与试验结果基本一致,误差在0.5 g内,证明6σ优化效果切实有效。

Reliable Space Pursuing for Reliability-based Design Optimization with Black-box Performance Functions

Reliability-based design optimization （RBDO） is intrinsically a double-loop procedure since it involves an overall optimization and an iterative reliability assessment at each search point. Due to the double-loop procedure, the computational expense of RBDO is normally very high. Current RBDO research focuses on problems with explicitly expressed performance functions and readily available gradients. This paper addresses a more challenging type of RBDO problem in which the performance functions are computation intensive. These computation intensive functions are often considered as a ＂black-box＂ and their gradients are not available or not reliable. On the basis of the reliable design space （RDS） concept proposed earlier by the authors, this paper proposes a Reliable Space Pursuing （RSP） approach, in which RDS is first identified and then gradually refined while optimization is performed. It fundamentally avoids the nested optimization and probabilistic assessment loop. Three well known RBDO problems from the literature are used for testing and demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed RSP method.

Establishing the Reliability and Validity of Health in Motion^©Automated Falls Screening Tool

Introduction: Blue Marble Health Company has created a digital fall risk screening tool (Health in Motion©) that can be used by means of self-report (touch/mouse) or by means of motion capture (Microsoft Kinect Sensor). Health in Motion©consists of automated versions of the Fall Risk Question-naire, 30-Second Chair Stand Test, and the One Leg Stance Test. Methods: We compared the three methods (self-report, sensor, and clinical standard measurement) using stopwatch and observation in 15 community-dwelling older adults, aged 63 - 80 years old. Each version was completed three times each in random order, for a total of nine trials. Results: Health in Motion©falls screening tool accessible via self-report and sensor is a valid and reliable automated at-home self-assessment for falls risk. Conclusion: Results support the use of Health in Motion©falls screening tools as viable alternatives to standard falls risk assessments for use by older adults at home.

Reliability of Substation Protection System Based on IEC61850

Although the new technology of protection and automation system of substation based on IEC61850 standard has developed rapidly in China,reliability measures depending on this technology need to be further researched.By taking advantage of convenient information sharing,two kinds of new schemes,shared backup protection unit(SBPU)and signal backup(SB),have been proposed to solve the failure problem of protective devices and current/voltage transducers respectively,and the working principle of these two schemes are also described.Furthermore,the key technologies of on-line diagnosis of protective devices'failure and on-line status diagnosis of optical or electronic current/voltage transducers to realize the two schemes are proposed.

Effect of Lanthanum on Driving Force for Cu_6Sn_5 Growth and Improvement of Solder Joint Reliability

By means of adding low content of rare earth element La into Sn60 Pb40 solder alloy, the growth of Cu 6Sn 5 intermetallic compound at the interface of solder joint is hindered, and the thermal fatigue life of solder joint is increased by 2 times. The results of thermodynamic calculation based on diffusion kinetics show that, the driving force for Cu 6Sn 5 growth is lowered by adding small content of La in Sn60 Pb40 solder alloy. Meanwhile, there is an effective local mole fraction range of La, in which, 0 18% is the limited value and 0 08% is the best value.

How reliable is the lacrimal scintigraphy report? An interobserver agreement and reliability study

AIM: To assess the inter-observer agreement and reliability as well as intra-observer repeatability for lacrimal scintigraphy(LS) reports with and without considering the irrigation test results.METHODS: A prospective, observational, cross sectional study. Two masked clinicians(lacrimal surgeon and nuclear medicine specialist) independently reported 100 LS images(50 patients of >6 years of age with unilateral anophthalmic socket) in a university hospital. The lacrimal surgeon performed a diagnostic irrigation test and repeated the report of the same LS images 2 y after the first report(intra-observer agreement). A weighted Kappa analysis was performed to determine inter-observer agreement and reliability as well as intra-observer repeatability for the type(normal, partial and complete obstruction) and location(presac, preduct, and intraduct) of the obstruction. Subgroup analysis was also performed with consideration of irrigation test results. RESULTS: A significantly moderate agreement was found between lacrimal surgeon and nuclear medicine specialist for both the type(Kappa=0.55) and location(Kappa=0.48) of obstruction. Agreement values were higher for the type(Kappa=0.61 vs 0.41) and location(Kappa=0.56 vs 0.31) of obstruction in cases with normal than abnormal irrigation test. Strong and significant intraobserver(lacrimal surgeon) repeatability was found for both the type(Kappa=0.66) and location(Kappa=0.69) of obstruction. LS showed no to slight reliability based on irrigation test.CONCLUSION: A moderate agreement is found between lacrimal surgeon and nuclear medicine specialist regarding the interpretation of LS suggesting the importance ofconsensus groups among nuclear medicine specialists and lacrimal surgeons to create a common language for interpretation of LS. Intra-observer repeatability is strong for the lacrimal surgeon.

6σ管理 以流程为基础的现代管理方法论

本文以6σ管理的方法论为主线,重点介绍了6σ管理的战略实施过程,具体分析了6σ流程改进(DMAIC)和6σ流程设计(DFSS)的相同点和区别,并以此提出我国企业实施6σ流程管理的注意事项。

Probabilistic back-analysis of rainfall-induced landslides for slope reliability prediction with multi-source information

Probabilistic back-analysis is an important means to infer the statistics of uncertain soil parameters,making the slope reliability assessment closer to the engineering reality.However,multi-source information(including test data,monitored data,field observation and slope survival records)is rarely used in current probabilistic back-analysis.Conducting the probabilistic back-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction under rainfalls by integrating multi-source information is a challenging task since thousands of random variables and high-dimensional likelihood function are usually involved.In this paper,a framework by integrating a modified Bayesian Updating with Subset simulation(mBUS)method with adaptive Conditional Sampling(aCS)algorithm is established for the probabilistic back-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction.Within this framework,the high-dimensional probabilistic back-analysis problem can be easily tackled,and the multi-source information(e.g.monitored pressure heads and slope survival records)can be fully used in the back-analysis.A real Taoyuan landslide case in Taiwan,China is investigated to illustrate the effectiveness and performance of the established framework.The findings show that the posterior knowledge of soil parameters obtained from the established framework is in good agreement with the field observations.Furthermore,the updated knowledge of soil parameters can be utilized to reliably predict the occurrence probability of a landslide caused by the heavy rainfall event on September 12,2004 or forecast the potential landslides under future rainfalls in the Fuhsing District of Taoyuan City,Taiwan,China.

The Reliability Design of a Kind of Multioption Fuze

On the basis of analysing the reliability problems existing in the general design of a kind of multioption fuze. some problems such as the reliability model. the reliability distribution of the electronic part of the fuze are discussed. For a particular multioption fuze, then.according to three different setting ways. the calculating methods of its operating reliability in six different operating states are given.

System Reliability Analysis Method Based on T-S FTA and HE-BN

For high-reliability systems in military,aerospace,and railway fields,the challenges of reliability analysis lie in dealing with unclear failure mechanisms,complex fault relationships,lack of fault data,and uncertainty of fault states.To overcome these problems,this paper proposes a reliability analysismethod based on T-S fault tree analysis(T-S FTA)and Hyper-ellipsoidal Bayesian network(HE-BN).The method describes the connection between the various systemfault events by T-S fuzzy gates and translates them into a Bayesian network(BN)model.Combining the advantages of T-S fault tree modeling with the advantages of Bayesian network computation,a reliability modeling method is proposed that can fully reflect the fault characteristics of complex systems.Experts describe the degree of failure of the event in the form of interval numbers.The knowledge and experience of experts are fused with the D-S evidence theory to obtain the initial failure probability interval of the BN root node.Then,the Hyper-ellipsoidal model(HM)constrains the initial failure probability interval and constructs a HE-BN for the system.A reliability analysismethod is proposed to solve the problem of insufficient failure data and uncertainty in the degree of failure.The failure probability of the system is further calculated and the key components that affect the system’s reliability are identified.The proposedmethod accounts for the uncertainty and incompleteness of the failure data in complex multi-state systems and establishes an easily computable reliability model that fully reflects the characteristics of complex faults and accurately identifies system weaknesses.The feasibility and accuracy of the method are further verified by conducting case studies.

On the relationship between imprint and reliability in Hf_(0.5)Zr_(0.5)O_(2) based ferroelectric random access memory

The detrimental effect of imprint,which can cause misreading problem,has hindered the application of ferroelectric HfO_(2).In this work,we present results of a comprehensive reliability evaluation of Hf_(0.5)Zr_(0.5)O_(2)-based ferroelectric random access memory.The influence of imprint on the retention and endurance is demonstrated.Furthermore,a solution in circuity is pro-posed to effectively solve the misreading problem caused by imprint.

Introduction to the Special Issue on Computer-Aided Uncertainty Modeling and Reliability Evaluation for Complex Engineering Structures

1 Summary With the advancement of science and technology,complex engineering structures are widely used in extreme environments[1].In equipment service,many uncertainty factors significantly affect safety and reliability[2–5].Therefore,ensuring high reliability of structures has become an important research direction in engineering design.At the same time,the importance of equipment health management of complex engineering structures is becoming increasingly prominent[6–8].Computer-aided uncertainty modeling and reliability assessment have become key tools,and finite element simulation and algorithmic innovation play a key role in the reliability analysis of complex equipment[9,10].These techniques can accurately simulate stress and damage accumulation under various operating environments,providing engineers with important decision support and optimization solutions.

Reliability Prediction of Wrought Carbon Steel Castings under Fatigue Loading Using Coupled Mold Optimization and Finite Element Simulation

The fatigue life and reliability of wrought carbon steel castings produced with an optimized mold design are predicted using a finite element method integrated with reliability calculations.The optimization of the mold is carried out using MAGMASoft mainly based on porosity reduction as a response.After validating the initial mold design with experimental data,a spring flap,a common component of an automotive suspension system is designed and optimized followed by fatigue life prediction based on simulation using Fe-safe.By taking into consideration the variation in both stress and strength,the stress-strength model is used to predict the reliability of the component under fatigue loading.Under typical loading conditions of 70 kN,the analysis showed that 95%of the steel spring flaps achieve infinite life.However,under maximum loading conditions of 90 kN,reliability declined significantly,with only 65%of the spring flaps expected to withstand the stress without failure.The study also identified a safe load-induced stress of 95 MPa on the spring flap.The findings suggest that transitioning from forged to cast spring flaps is a promising option,particularly if further improvements in casting design reduce porosity to negligible levels,potentially achieving 100%reliability under typical loading conditions.This integrated approach of mold optimization coupled with reliability estimation under realistic service loading conditions offers significant potential for the casting industry to produce robust,cost-effective products.

Reliability Assessment of a New General Matching Composed Network

The reliability of a network is an important indicator for maintaining communication and ensuring its stable operation. Therefore, the assessment of reliability in underlying interconnection networks has become an increasingly important research issue. However, at present, the reliability assessment of many interconnected networks is not yet accurate,which inevitably weakens their fault tolerance and diagnostic capabilities. To improve network reliability,researchers have proposed various methods and strategies for precise assessment. This paper introduces a novel family of interconnection networks called general matching composed networks(gMCNs), which is based on the common characteristics of network topology structure. After analyzing the topological properties of gMCNs, we establish a relationship between super connectivity and conditional diagnosability of gMCNs. Furthermore, we assess the reliability of g MCNs, and determine the conditional diagnosability of many interconnection networks.