Calculation of the parameters of georesistivi－ty anisotropy and case history of earthquake precursors

This paper has discussed the effective resistivity ellipse and the paradoxical phenomenon of anisotropy. Two cases have been discussed, namely: there are three measuring lines at arbitrary angles with one another and there are two mutually perpendicular measuring lines and an additional measurement of the transversal effective resistivity. For these cases, the paper has given the methods for quantitatively calculating the parameters of georesistivity anisotropy. The formulae given include those for calculating the azimuth (of the principal axis of minimum resistivity ρ 1, the average resistivity ( ρ 1ρ 3) 1/2 , (ρ 2ρ 3) 1/2 , and the anisotropy coefficient λ=(ρ 2/ρ 1 ) 1/2 . As a case history, the data observed by the Datong geoelectricity station have been processed with reference to the results of in situ resistivity measurement in media subjected to shear. The results of analysis have led to the following understandings. Before and after the Datong M S6.1 earthquake on October 19, 1989, the abnormal rise of NE trending georesistivity and abnormal fall of NW trending georesistivity observed at the Datong and Yangyuan stations were caused by the pure shear acting on the medium. The major principal compression was in NE direction, which made an acute angle with the strike of the seismic fault plane, and thus there was a greater shear stress but very small normal stress so that the fault was likely to slide but the earthquake was only of moderate magnitude. The states of stress in medium were the same before and after earthquake and therefore the georesistivity precursor was of the same sign as that of co seismic variations.

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Precursory Anomalies of the Wenchuan MS8.0 Earthquake and Their Mechanical Analysis

In order to study the spatiotemporal evolution of the precursory anomalies 10 years before the Wenchuan M_S8. 0 earthquake in 2008, the epicentral distance of the precursory anomalies is calculated by using the geometric center of the rupture region and the elliptical centerline of the aftershock region. The result shows, precursor anomalies gradually increased about 2 years before the Wenchuan earthquake. The ratio of abnormal items is greater than 25% in the near source area (about twice the source scale) and 17%-24% in the remote area (about 3-5 times the source scale). There are three different stages of spatiotemporal evolution of precursory anomalies. During the α stage (including α_1 and α_2,between 700 to 3000 days before the main earthquake),the anomalies are mainly distributed in the southwest and northwest area of the Wenchuan aftershocks area. It is shown that the precursors of the far source region and the near source area have the characteristics of outward expansion. During the β stage (between 300 to 700 days before the main earthquake), the anomalies are distributed in the southwest and northern region of the aftershock region, showing a large range of anomalies. During the γ stage (including γ_1 and γ_2, 300 days before the main earthquake),the range of anomaly distribution is wide,and the anomalies are distributed in the southwest and northeast of the aftershock area. The anomalies converged to epicenter (γ_1) in the far source region and expand outwards (γ_2) in the near source region. Results of the experimental study and mechanical analysis of earthquake preparation process indicate that the three-stage characteristics of precursory anomalies in the process of earthquake preparation may be controlled by the seismogenic body,which is a form of expression in the process of earthquake preparation and a universal featureduring the earthquake preparation process,which has a certain guiding role in earthquake prediction.

Imminent Earthquake Forecasting on the Basis of Japan INTERMAGNET Stations, NEIC, NOAA and Tide Code Data Analysis

This research presents one possible way for imminent prediction of earthquakes’ magnitude, depth and epicenter coordinates by solving the inverse problem using a data acquisition network system for monitoring, archiving and complex analysis of geophysical variables-precursors. Among many possible precursors the most reliable are the geoelectromagnetic field, the boreholes water level, radon earth-surface concentration, the local heat flow, ionosphere variables, low frequency atmosphere and Earth core waves. The title demonstrates that only geomagnetic data are used in this study. Within the framework of geomagnetic quake approach it is possible to perform an imminent regional seismic activity forecasting on the basis of simple analysis of geomagnetic data which use a new variable SChtM with dimension surface density of energy. Such analysis of Japan Memambetsu, Kakioka, Kanoya INTERMAGNET stations and NEIC earthquakes data, the hypothesis that the “predicted” earthquake is this with biggest value of the variable SChtM permits to formulate an inverse problem (overdetermined algebraic system) for precursor’s signals like a function of earthquake’s magnitude, depth and distance from a monitoring point. Thus, in the case of data acquisition network system existence, which includes monitoring of more than one reliable precursor variables in at least four points distributed within the area with a radius of up to 700 km, there will be enough algebraic equations for calculation of impending earthquake’s magnitude, depth and distance, solving the overdetermined algebraic system.

Simulation of strong earthquake characteristics of a scenario earthquake(M_(S)7.5)based on the enlightenment of 2022 M_(S)6.9 earthquake in Menyuan

The Menyuan area is an important transportation hub in the Hexi Corridor.The Menyuan M_(S)6.9 earthquake that occurred on January 8,2022 had a major impact on the local infrastructure and transportation of this region.Due to the high possibility of similar strong earthquakes occurring in this area in the future,preliminary assessment of the seismic intensity characteristics of destructive earthquakes in this region is essential for effective disaster control.This paper uses the empirical Green′s function(EGF)method as a numerical simulation tool to predict the ground motion intensity of Datong Autonomous County under the action of the scenario earthquake(M_(S)7.5).Seismic records of aftershocks of the 2016 Menyuan M_(S)6.4 earthquake were used as Green’s functions for this simulation.The uncertainties associated with various source parameters were considered,and 36possible earthquake scenarios were simulated to obtain 72 sets of horizontal ground motions in Datong County.The obtained peak ground acceleration(PGA)vs.time histories of the horizontal ground motion were screened using the attenuation relationships provided by the fifth-edition of China’s Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map and the NGA-West2dataset.Ultimately,32 possible acceleration-time histories were selected for further analysis.The screened PGA values ranged from 78.8 to 153 cm/s^(2).The uncertainty associated with the initial rupture point was found to greatly affect the results of the earthquake simulation.The average acceleration spectrum of the selected acceleration-time history exceeded the expected spectrum of a intermediate earthquake,which means that buildings in Datong County might sustain some damage should the scenario earthquake occur.This research can provide reliable ground motion input for urban earthquake damage simulation and seismic design in Datong County.Growing the dataset of small earthquakes recorded in this region will facilitate the large-scale simulation of ground motions under different earthquake scenarios.

Atypical Variations of Water Conductivity Prior to Tectonic Earthquakes

Within the framework of precursor events related to earthquakes, this paper analyzes the possible effect on the aquatic environment of the surrounding energy that accompanies earthquakes, particularly in the area where oceanic and continental plates collide (Cocos Plate and North American Plate, south of Mexico). As a preamble, the types of precursor events, characteristics, and their possible origin are described. A project was designed under the assumption that in areas with high frequency and intensity seismicity there is an electrical and electromagnetic potential promoter which is detectable and assessable indirectly by measuring water conductivity behavior, which also may have atypical variations of data;the outcome of intensive conductivity monitoring in different settings, natural as well as manmade (wellsprings, artesian well and a cistern), are presented herein. The results of the conductivity monitoring for seven months, highlight two patterns in data behavior: one pattern shows the subtle dependence of data behavior on the geographic location of data monitoring instruments, revealing that could have a slight relationship between areas with increased seismic frequency and intensity and the presence of atypical conductivity variations. Another pattern reveals the possible relationship between atypical variations in conductivity and subsequent earthquake events;a total of 241 seismic events were analyzed and 59 of them are provided as evidence related with patterns mentioned.

2021年青海玛多M_(S)7.4地震前电磁异常时空演化特征

1研究背景。地震电磁分析预报方法在近年震情跟踪工作中的作用已日益突出,显示了良好的应用前景;与此同时,通过众多学者总结归纳的指标(中国地震局监测预报司,2020)已作为目前地震电磁异常重要的识别线索和地震预测参考依据。自2015年开始中国地震局电磁分析预报技术管理组组织人员开展了地震电磁分析预报方法指标研制与完善,共研制完善9个方法。

门源M_(S)6.9地震前后地震异常时空演化

中国大陆发生强震动力来源主要是在印度—欧亚板块碰撞下,青藏高原的北向运动、东部地区的东向运动作用(Wang and Shen,2020);近20年青藏高原北缘地块运动主流观点是巴颜喀拉块体向东运动带动周边地块的运动,但从近十年的地震活动分析,柴达木和祁连块体向东运动是增强的,2022年门源M_(S)6.9地震等一系列地震是典型的震例。

2022年门源M_(S)6.9地震前地球物理场异常时空演化特征

1研究背景。由于印度板块与欧亚板块相互推挤影响,晚中新世以来青藏高原东北缘迅速抬升,地形变化与地质构造均异常复杂(沈旭章,2013)。历史上该区域发生多次6级以上强震,伴随孕震过程出现的地球物理场异常丰富且多样,异常数量及变化幅度能够客观反映区域应力变化的水平,其演化过程也受到孕震体物理、化学性质变化和地壳应力状态变化的控制(李丽,1999;苏维刚,2021)。

2018年通海M_(S)5.0地震显著异常时空演化特征分析

通过对2018年8月13—14日通海2次M_(S)5.0地震前,玉溪市、红河州所属的滇南地区地震活动和定点形变、流体等异常进行分析.结果表明:发现震前出现滇南M_(S)≥6.0地震平静、M_(S)≥5.0地震平静、M_(L)≥4.0地震空区、M_(L)≥4.0和M_(L)≥3.0地震积累频度增加、低b值、高水位等背景异常,以及峨山窗口地震、滇东南M_(L)≥3.0地震活跃、高大地温、曲江水氡、石屏水平摆、蒙自CO_(2)、绿春CO_(2)、黄草坝钻孔应变等中短临15条异常.其中,测震学异常7条,占总异常的47%;微观前兆异常8条,占总异常的53%.中短临异常8条,占总异常的53%.对显著前兆观测异常时空演化特征进行分析,可为后续地震预测预报提供可借鉴的经验.

2013年芦山M_S7.0地震前后姑咱台四分量钻孔应变时频特征分析

2013年4月20日芦山MS7.0地震前,四川省姑咱台四分量钻孔应变仪再度记录到类似于2008年汶川MS8.0地震前的高频应变畸变信号.为了对该畸变信号各频率成分的时频演化特征进行细致分析,讨论应变异常的可信度及其与芦山地震的相关性,本文利用S变换方法对应变数据进行了处理.结果表明,研究时段内时频域中共出现两簇高能量异常,一簇开始于2012年10月并持续了约4个月,另一簇则开始于芦山MS7.0地震前数天.同时段远震的影响及施工干扰并不能构成该异常的主体,因此该异常可信度较高.异常中包含了周期由数分钟至数小时的信号成分,其中较短周期的信号成分震前出现较晚,震后衰减较快.震后异常信号的整体能量开始逐步衰减,异常信号成分减少,至2013年8月末应变观测记录已基本恢复至正常状态,整个应变异常显示的时频演化过程与芦山MS7.0地震具有较高相关性.

S变换在汶川地震前后应变变化分析中的应用

引入时频分析中的S变换方法,对姑咱台四分量钻孔应变观测曲线中出现的"压性脉冲"和"潮汐畸变"异常信号进行分析。结果表明,在背景信号的基础上,周期约10～60分钟的信号在汶川地震前开始大量出现,震后逐渐衰减;能量最大的信号仍然是背景信号,其能量幅度随地震发生时间的临近而增大,震后逐渐减弱。

唐山古冶M_(S) 5.1地震前断层位移协调比的短临异常分析

1研究背景2020年7月12日河北唐山市古冶区发生M_(S) 5.1地震,震源深度10 km,震中位于1976年唐山M_(S) 7.8地震老震区内,距唐山断裂小于10 km。地震造成河北唐山市中心震感强烈,天津、河北承德震感明显,北京、河北廊坊、沧州等地有震感。此为继1995年10月6日唐山古冶M_(S) 5.0余震后,唐山老震区时隔25年发生的又一次5级以上地震。对于此震是否为唐山M_(S) 7.8地震的余震尚有不同认识。

2020年1月16日库车M_(S)5.6地震前兆异常初步分析

利用常用的形态分析法,研究2020年1月16日库车M_(S)5.6地震的前兆异常变化特征。结果显示:地震发生前,震中250 km范围内共6套观测仪器出现了7项前兆异常变化,其中背景异常2项,中短期异常5项,背景异常特征主要表现为震前数据发生趋势转折变化,中短期异常特征主要表现为数据年变幅度的改变、倾斜方向改变和速率的快速变化等。最后,对异常的时间进程和空间分布特征进行分析,异常项主要位于震中距为225 km的库尔勒地震台,对应中短期异常数量在2019年12月以后达到峰值5项,地震发生在异常结束后的阶段。通过对库车M_(S)5.6地震震前前兆异常特征进行分析,以便为该区域未来的地震预测提供一定的科学依据。

1996年丽江M_(s)7.0地震的断层活动位移协调比分析

丽江流动跨断层形变观测场地(下文简称丽江场地)位于丽江市古城北象山脚下,跨洱源—鹤庆断裂(中生代形成的逆走滑活动断层),观测点位均为基岩点,观测环境良好,周围无明显干扰。该场地于1982年2月开始观测,观测周期1-2个月,资料较连续、稳定。依据断层活动位移协调比概念,对丽江场地观测资料进行精细化处理,计算该场地协调比序列,分析判断1996年2月3日丽江M_(s)7.0地震及7月2日丽江M_(s)5.2较强余震发生前的异常现象是否为短临形变前兆异常。

2022年德令哈M_(S) 6.0地震前地磁垂直强度极化异常特征分析

1研究背景已有研究表明,岩石破裂时电磁波超低频段会出现信号异常,且临近破裂时岩石附近磁场强度会出现短周期前兆变化(郝锦绮等,2003)。地磁垂直强度极化方法是目前地震磁扰动定量分析中物理含义明确、分析过程完善且获取异常信息能力较强的方法之一(姚休义等,2018)。该方法基于频谱分析,通过地磁场垂直分量Z和水平分量(H或G)的频谱振幅相比来定义。数值模拟结果证明,一次源来自地壳内频率1 Hz附近的磁信号垂直分量幅值大于水平分量幅值,其比值大于1(Molchanov et al,1995),故可通过该比值来突出岩石圈异常信号,同时抑制外源场的电磁信号。

菲律宾—印度尼西亚东部地震S波走时异常初探

大连地震台在实测中,经常观测到来自菲律宾—印度尼西亚东部一带的地震S波较理论到时提前约数秒到达。2002年至2011年,记录到该地区145例具有此种显著异常的震例。该现象与台基无关,全国地区均可观测到。震例分析发现,可观测到该现象与未观测到明显异常的台站在全球范围内大致呈四象限分布,造成该异常现象的原因可能与震源过程有关。

2021年玛多M_(S)7.4地震前玉树地震台井水温异常特征

2021年5月22日青海果洛州玛多县发生MS_(7.4)地震,震中位于(34.59°N,98.34°E),其震源机制解显示该地震为高倾角走滑型(张喆,许立生,2021)。玛多地震的发震构造为昆仑山口—江错断裂,是东昆仑断裂的一条分支断裂(王未来等,2021)。玉树地震台位于甘孜—玉树断裂附近。玛多地震震中和玉树地震台均位于巴颜喀拉次级地块内,玉树地震台位于巴颜喀拉地块的南边界。此次地震震中处于玉树地震台的NE方向,距巴颜喀拉地块北边界85 km(图1)。

2022年德令哈M_(S) 5.8、M_(S) 6.0地震前德令哈水温异常特征

1研究背景2022年1月8日青海海北州门源县发生M_(S) 6.9地震(37.77°N,101.26°E),震中位于托莱山断裂和冷龙岭断裂交会处,距德令哈地震台(下文简称德令哈台)344 km。同年1月23日和3月26日分别在青海海西州德令哈发生M_(S) 5.8(38.44°N,97.37°E)和M_(S) 6.0(38.5°N,97.33°E)地震,震中位于党河南山断裂附近,距德令哈台约120 km。2021年12月2日德令哈台站浅层水温两套观测数据出现快速上升变化,12月17日转折快速下降,最大变幅分别为0.022℃和0.008℃,之后数据逐步恢复正常变化趋势,总体呈倒“U”字型变化特征(图1)。异常与地震的响应特征是异常指标建立的基础依据,直接影响到后续震情的跟踪研判,因此德令哈水温异常变化与2022年门源M_(S) 6.9地震和后续的德令哈震群型地震之间是否存在响应关系,对于未来震情的分析研判具有重要的现实意义。

2020年7月13日霍城M_(S)5.0地震前兆异常初步分析

利用形态分析法,分析2020年7月13日霍城M_(S)5.0地震前异常变化特征及演化规律。结果表明:在地震发生前,距震中200 km范围内共6套观测仪器出现异常,异常测项占比15.2%。短期异常十分显著,以突变型异常为主,具有典型的集群特征。通过对本次地震震前异常演化特征的分析,可为未来该地区地震预报提供一定的参考依据。

2019年5月18日吉林松原宁江M_(S)5.1地震总结

2019年5月18日6时24分48秒,吉林省松原市宁江区发生MS 5.1地震(45.30°N,124.75°E),震源深度10 km。经调查,吉林省大部分地区、黑龙江省部分地区有震感,其中震中区附近的松原市宁江区伯都乡、毛都站、新城乡、前郭县平凤乡大部分村屯震感强烈,松原市城区震感明显。截至2019年6月12日,共记录地震168次,其中M_(L)2.0-2.9地震10次,M_(L)1.0-1.9地震26次,M_(L)3.0以上地震5次,最大余震为6月3日01时47分M_(L)4.5地震。文中从松原地区的地震地质、地震前兆、地震序列等方面对此次地震进行总结。