人民币原油期货国际地位研究——基于多元传递熵的复杂网络分析

近年来原油期货计价货币由美元垄断转向逐渐出现多元化的趋势,为了科学评估上期所人民币原油期货(SC原油)在国际原油期货市场中的地位,本文通过基于多元传递熵的信息溢出网络分析,构建国际原油期货市场信息溢出网络,检验原油期货市场的重要性。实证证据显示,孟买、东京等非美元原油期货市场有较大的信息溢出,与美元原油市场存在显著的独特信息溢出关系,但SC原油的独特信息溢出不显著。与其他非美元原油期货不同,SC原油与人民币汇率之间没有显著的独特信息溢出关系,揭示原油期货市场与外汇市场之间的信息传递较弱。本文的发现对人民币国际化发展带来启示,应加强人民币在多元化的国际货币体系中的作用,加快人民币原油期货市场发展,进一步完善人民币汇率衍生品市场,与人民币原油市场实现协同发展。

英国脱欧对不同经济体的影响研究

本文以英国脱欧这一重大国际事件为议题,回顾历史,展望未来,聚焦经济领域,深入研究英国脱欧在经济全球化中对不同经济体的影响。全文分为四个部分,第一部分介绍了英国脱欧对其自身经贸短期弊大于利、长期有着积极的影响;第二部分阐述了英国脱欧对欧盟国家在货币、金融、劳动力等方面产生的冲击;第三部分分析了英国脱欧对中国经济带来的阻碍和新的机遇;第四部分提出了对中英关系在金融领域、全球治理和科技领域开展多元化互惠互利合作的建议,以供参考。

The use of renminbi for trade and non-trade denomination and settlement

The use of renminbi for invoicing and settlement intermediaries in foreign-oriented activities is the first step and footstone of internationalization of the Chinese currency. With the appreciation of renminbi in recent years, there has been a growth of renminbi invoicing and settlement in China’s border trades, although the overall amount is small and the development momentum is imbalanced among different regions. The main obstacles come from such factors as VAT rebate policy restrictions and foreign exchange control, insufficient financial services, and under-cultivated willingness among enterprises. Looking from the strategic perspective of strengthening macro-adjustment and enhancing the open economy, it is pressing and would be beneficial to China to promote the renminbi’s invoicing and settlement function. Therefore, following the momentum, we should accelerate the construction of a cross-border renminbi clearing system, create non-discriminative treatment in terms of VAT rebate and exchange control policies, and gradually expand the usage of the renminbi from border trades to general trades and outward investment.

Is the Chinese Renminbi Undervalued？ An Examination of the B-S Effect Using Diverse Datasets

In 2010, the debate over valuation of the Renminbi is again heating up and the Chinese currency has returned to appreciating against the dollar But is the Renminbi undervalued？ Drawing on the Balassa-Samuelson （B-S） effect on purchasing power parity, we conduct theoretical and empirical analyses of this issue. Theoretical analysis proves that a country＇s real exchange rate will appreciate with rising income, but the currencies of low-income countries tend to be undervalued. In order to avoid biased conclusions resulting from a single dataset or sampling method, we draw on three major publicly-available datasets to examine the B-S effect across 144 economies. Our results indicate that the degree of Renminbi misvaluation is highly dependent on the data source. Synthesizing analyses of diverse datasets, we estimate that the Renminbi was only undervalued by less than 8per cent in 2009. We conclude that China＇s external imbalance most probably results from deep-seated structural imbalances rather than Renminbi undervaluation.

What are the Reasons for Keeping Renminbi Stable

Most of the economists agree that renminbi is undervalued, while as for how much it should be appreciated, substantial disagreements exists. At the beginning of this year, analysts abroad tended to think that the renminbi should increase its value by 10% to 15%. The most recent estimates are that the renminbi should appreciate 20% to 30%. This shows the great upward pressure on the renminbi. Since it was devalued in 1994, China’s currency has been kept at a constant nominal level to the US dollar despite china’s rapid economic growth, rising productivity, strong exports, and massive foreign direct investments——all factors that normally cause a currency to appreciated, moreover, the resulting build-up of central bank foreign reserves in itself is sufficient to justify renminbi appreciation. The reasons for keeping Renminbi stable is discussed in this paper.

A geological and functional “three-step strategy” for renminbi's internationalization

Internationalization of the renminbi is the only option for China to fully integrate into the global economic and financial systems. It is not only necessary but imperative as well. With the discussion of advancing renminbi internationalization, benef its and costs must be addressed. We need to closely monitor possible risks and bring out the benefits while averting disadvantages. The overall strategy is to consolidate the groundwork and at the same time actively advance renminbi internationalization and opt for a "three-step" strategy at both strategic and policy levels. To overcome the constraints standing in the way of renminbi internationalization, the basic goals should be: to enhance the readiness of renminbi internationalization, dialectically assess the preconditions, and increase the currency's international circulation as a way to achieve major progress in renminbi internationalization.

Internationalization of the Renminbi:Status and Prospects

The recent global financial crisis has revealed great defects in the US dollar dominated international monetary system.In response,countries and international organizations have developed numerous proposals for reform of the system.With China's growing economic presence,the renminbi is gaining recognition and acceptance in international markets and is slowly beginning to play a significant role in trade settlement and offshore market development.Meanwhile,it is important to remain aware of the limitations of renminbi internationalization and the gaps that exist between it and other major world currencies.Once fully implemented,renminbi internationalization will result in it becoming a major currency on the world stage in approximately 15 years.

Volatility of the Exchange Rate after Renminbi Inclusion into the SDR：Test of Stability and Representation

The special drawing rights(SDR) must have stability and representation in order to serve as reserve assets and the unit of account for bulk commodities and assume the function as a potential international currency. By introducing such factors as China's share in global trade volume in 2013, this paper found that the covariance between the SDR and the price fluctuations of major commodities is the smallest after Renminbi inclusion into the SDR. The covariance is more or less halved compared with the SDR without Renminbi. Then, based on our comparison of volatility in the effective exchange rates(EER) of various countries(extensively used) and the volatility in the SDR exchange rate(seldom used), we found that despite similar trend curves, the SDR's volatility can explain for a very small part of the volatility in effective exchange rate. The residual error indicates that the share of SDR is limited in the volatility of effective exchange rates of various countries on the one hand and suggests that it is urgent to expand the SDR to include representative currencies, particularly the currencies that represent significant weights of world trade. Relevant tests demonstrate that Renminbi inclusion into the SDR will not only enlarge the stability of SDR but enlarge its function as an index currency through the extension of SDR's function as the unit of account for major world commodities and the inclusion of the currencies of other major trading nations, so that the representation as the global unit of account will be enlarged. In addition, the inclusion into the SDR also helps Renminbi become a component of the international reserve currencies and supplement its liquidity supply.

Renminbi Internationalization and Stability of the International Monetary System

This paper investigates the stability of the international monetary system using the new open economic analysis framework. Our research has discovered that conditions for the stability of the international monetary system are such that the economic volume of reserve currency countries must be large enough and that the solvency capacity growth rate of reserve currency countries should be no lower than the real output growth rate of non- reserve currency countries and the real return of the reserve currency,＂ the existence of the valuation effect cannot secure the stability of a reserve currency,＂ and inclusion of the euro and the Japanese yen into international reserve currencies cannot stabilize the international monetary system, while Renminbi internationalization plays an irreplaceable role to the stability of the international monetary system.

Variable Impact of Renminbi Appreciation on Chinese Industries＇ Profitability

This paper uses the input-output tables from 2007 to estimate the exchangerate risk exposure of all 42 sectors of the Chinese economy. It then demonstrates a new quantitative approach for examining the differential impacts of Renminbi appreciation on the export of finished goods and the import of intermediate inputs in each sector, and estimates the changes in profitability of each sector under different degrees of Renminbi appreciation. The results indicate that appreciation of the Renminbi will increase the profitability of 22 sectors, which are generally monopolistic, capital-intensive, and reliant on R＆D, and reduce the profitability of 20 sectors, which are generally competitive, labor-intensive, and less reliant on R＆D. This suggests that the degree and pace of Renminbi appreciation must be coordinated with industrial and employment policies in order to reduce exchange-rate risk exposure through trade restructuring, to improve economic structure, to promote competition and employment, and to maintain steady and sustainable economic growth.

元宇宙的法律底座及其建设

观念、技术、资本和法律是推动元宇宙发展的四种重要动力。当前各界相对重视元宇宙发展的技术基建,而忽视元宇宙的法律底座建设,这是制约元宇宙健康发展的重要原因之一。从元宇宙经济系统的运作看,虚拟数字人、数字财产、智能合约、数字货币和虚拟空间构成五个基本要素,对这五个基本要素的法律保障也构成元宇宙经济系统的法律底座。当前中国法律和监管政策对于元宇宙的建设发展整体上持“无感+反感”的立场,因此应当改变这种立场,夯实元宇宙开发建设的法律基建,以推动元宇宙的健康有序发展,为中国参与并引领全球数字化转型竞争提供战略契机。

TRANSFORM THE MECHANISM OF RENMINBI’S EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM IN CONFORMITY WITH THE DEMAND OF MARKET ECONOMY——The academic report delivered at the Annual Meeting of NNCIFS on October 1993

Exchange rate functions under systems of centrallyplanned economy and market economy are quite different,and the mechanism to determine such exchange rate is alsodifferent. To adopt a socialist market economic system inChina, the exchange rate mechanism of Renminbi must bethoroughly transformed. To accomplish this goal, I believethere are three problems that must be solved: first,

新兴市场跨境资金流动的风险效应研究——基于实证的中国特征比较和国债研究拓展

本文以新兴市场跨境资金流动性安全问题为研究命题,以中国市场和新兴市场的数据作为研究样本,基于构建的时变模型框架体系,分析了跨境资金流动的外部冲击和内部风险传染效应。研究结论为:一是美联储货币政策存在多元化的渠道传导效应,其中利率效应显著性最强;二是新兴市场跨市场存在风险传染性,股债市场跨境资金流动存在异质性;三是中国跨境资金流动具有自身独有特征,中国的风险传染效应更强,双向影响存在非对称性;四是拓展国债市场开放的研究发现中美利差对境外持有人民币国债存在长期且稳定的影响,人民币对美元汇率虽然效应弱但是存在逐步增强的趋势。在此基础上,本文围绕人民币国际化、区域金融市场建立、金融基础设施建设和国债市场渐进式开放提出策略建议。

Renminbi internationalization lacks micro base

The current global financial crisis's severity is rarely seen once in a century. Due to a lack of liquidity-attracting new industries, the economic adjustment might be prolonged; and the multiplier effects of international finance and international trade call for joint rescue plans on a global basis. China's recent price adjustment has proven a failure and its domestic consumption-stimulating policy is ineffective. Investments and exports remain the growth engine for China's economy. So the country should make efforts to maintain export competitiveness with output adjustment, restoration of interest rate parity and reduction of the tax rate parity. Internationalization of the U.S. dollar-permeated renminbi is not a sensible choice, as the renminbi is not, in essence, an international currency, and it lacks a micro-foundation.

经济适度多元历程中的中国澳门现代金融发展研究

现代金融是推动澳门经济适度多元发展和中葡商贸合作服务平台建设的重要动力。本研究从政策文本分析切入,梳理澳门特区政府自回归以来对现代金融的推进措施及其取得的成就,关注中国澳门现代金融政策的演化特征和现代金融业的发展态势,在此基础上分析现代金融业和中国澳门—葡语国家贸易的关系,并对现代金融业发展提出建议。研究发现,中国澳门现代金融政策关注点包括人民币业务、财富管理和融资租赁等;依托粤港澳大湾区跨境合作,中国澳门现代金融业有序发展,当前重点关注债券市场;通过定量计算检验,中国澳门现代金融业和中国澳门—葡语国家贸易发展存在正向的相互影响,但影响尚小,有待进一步强化。

构建数字人民币跨境支付体系的前瞻性研究——基于粤港澳大湾区情境推演的视角

通过推导以中国人民银行、指定商业银行、大湾区内跨境商户以及跨境消费者为主体的四方演化博弈模型,对构建数字人民币跨境支付体系所面临的潜在问题开展情境推演研究,并结合深圳试点数据进行模拟仿真分析。结果发现,在大湾区试点过程中,四方博弈主体共同构成一个完整闭环的有机生态体系。其中,作为数字人民币的发行方,央行在跨境支付体系中起主导作用;指定商业银行是承上启下的关键节点,主要通过手续费率定价、发放消费券以及综合推广成本影响博弈进程;跨境商户看重数字人民币的安全性以及节省成本优势;消费者的策略选择主要依赖于获取并使用数字人民币的成本,以及是否从跨境支付活动中受益。基于此,建议加速推进跨境支付参与主体协同发展,切实维护数字人民币的公信力,有效降低跨境支付成本,并丰富跨境支付应用场景,以此有效构建数字人民币跨境支付体系。

ChatGPT情感感知策略识别下的贸易新闻及其人民币汇率短期波动效应研究

汇率的资产属性及其对外部经济政治环境的敏感性,使其在短期波动中极易受到贸易新闻引起的非理性预期的影响。将ChatGPT技术与爬虫技术、事件研究法、LSTM模型相结合,实现贸易新闻事件的爬取、分类以及情感感知,并通过将ChatGPT赋予事件的标签作为特征值输入时序人工智能模型LSTM中,验证贸易新闻的人民币汇率的短期波动效应。结论呈现:第一,贸易新闻事件会引起人民币汇率短期波动;第二,在贸易新闻事件中,负面新闻对人民币汇率短期波动效应较正面新闻而言更为显著。第三,在贸易新闻事件中,政策类事件对人民币汇率短期波动的影响大大高于会谈类事件;由美国引起的事件对人民币汇率短期波动的影响大大高于中美双方来源事件与中国来源事件。根据以上结论,货币当局应关注贸易新闻对外汇投资者以及汇率市场价格波动的传导效应,及时消除特殊事件对人民币汇率稳定、人民币国际化进程可能带来的消极影响。

离岸人民币债券市场规模与人民币国际化程度的关系——基于二者传导机制的研究

离岸人民币债券市场是推动人民币国际化的重要动力,因此,以离岸人民币债券市场规模与人民币国际化程度之间的关系作为研究对象,基于汇率与利率变化视角,探寻了二者之间的传导机制,并用拔靴滚动因果分析法对二者关系的结构性特征进行实证检验。研究结果表明,离岸人民币债券市场规模与人民币国际化程度之间存在结构性因果关系;进一步研究发现,人民币的利率与汇率变化均在离岸人民币债券市场规模对人民币国际化的作用机制中发挥中介效应作用。结合以上研究结论,提出助推人民币国际化的三项政策措施。

汇率改革对中国外汇市场有效性的影响——基于利率平价理论的实证研究

本文采用2011—2022年离岸市场利率平价偏离(CIP偏离)指标衡量汇率市场有效性,研究了“8·11”汇改等汇率改革政策对外汇市场有效性的影响。本文发现:①离岸市场CIP偏离平均为正;②“8·11”汇改后CIP偏离在汇率政策偏市场阶段显著下降,而在偏调控阶段则与汇改前无明显差异;③离岸与在岸市场CIP偏离存在差异。汇改对CIP偏离的影响机制有二:其一,汇率改革让价格市场化,使得汇率价格在套利作用下向利率平价成立方向移动;其二,汇率改革减少了市场摩擦和不确定性风险,“8·11”汇改后套利限制和市场风险相关变量与CIP偏离之间的关系大幅减弱。离岸市场是跨境交易的主要依托和人民币国际化的关键环节,本文结果补充了汇率改革对离岸市场有效性的影响,为进一步推进人民币国际化、加强汇率和金融市场开放提供了政策参考。