The long time practice of observational research on earthquake prediction has shown that the information on shortterm and imminent earthquake precursors can hardly be detected, but it is very important for practical ...The long time practice of observational research on earthquake prediction has shown that the information on shortterm and imminent earthquake precursors can hardly be detected, but it is very important for practical and effective earthquake prediction. The result of analysis and study in this paper has shown that the anomaly of quasi static atmospheric electric field may be a kind of reliable information on short term and imminent earthquake precursors.On such a basis, the 20 years′ continuous and reliable data of atmospheric electric field observed at the Baijiatuan seismic station are used to study the correlation between the anomalies in seismic activity and relative quiet periods bear on the occurrence of near earthquakes within 200 km range around Beijing after the Tangshan earthquake. The observational results recently reported before hand in written form and earthquakes that actually occurred in near field in corresponding time periods are compared and analyzed. The efficacy of these written prediction opinions about near earthquakes in the recent 10 years is tested. From the test results, the brilliant prospect that the anomaly of quasi static atmospheric electric field may really become a reliable mark for making short term and imminent earthquake predictions is discussed. Besides, as a preliminary step, some judgment indexes for predicting earthquakes by use of the observational data of atmospheric electric field before earthquakes are put forward. In the last part, it is pointed out that it would be possible to obtain more believable judgment indexes for determining the three elements of near earthquakes before greater earthquakes ( M S5) only if a relatively reasonable station network (2～4 stations every 10 000 km 2) is deployed and further investigation is made.展开更多
文摘The long time practice of observational research on earthquake prediction has shown that the information on shortterm and imminent earthquake precursors can hardly be detected, but it is very important for practical and effective earthquake prediction. The result of analysis and study in this paper has shown that the anomaly of quasi static atmospheric electric field may be a kind of reliable information on short term and imminent earthquake precursors.On such a basis, the 20 years′ continuous and reliable data of atmospheric electric field observed at the Baijiatuan seismic station are used to study the correlation between the anomalies in seismic activity and relative quiet periods bear on the occurrence of near earthquakes within 200 km range around Beijing after the Tangshan earthquake. The observational results recently reported before hand in written form and earthquakes that actually occurred in near field in corresponding time periods are compared and analyzed. The efficacy of these written prediction opinions about near earthquakes in the recent 10 years is tested. From the test results, the brilliant prospect that the anomaly of quasi static atmospheric electric field may really become a reliable mark for making short term and imminent earthquake predictions is discussed. Besides, as a preliminary step, some judgment indexes for predicting earthquakes by use of the observational data of atmospheric electric field before earthquakes are put forward. In the last part, it is pointed out that it would be possible to obtain more believable judgment indexes for determining the three elements of near earthquakes before greater earthquakes ( M S5) only if a relatively reasonable station network (2～4 stations every 10 000 km 2) is deployed and further investigation is made.
