Assessment of climate damage in China based on integrated assessment framework

Developing a localized and consistent model framework for climate loss and damage assessment is crucial for the policy-making of climate change mitigation and adaptation.This study introduces a comprehensive,multidisciplinary Integrated Assessment Model(IAM)framework for evaluating climate damage in China,utilizing BCC-SESM climate model and FUND sectoral climate damage model under the SSP2-RCPs scenario.Employing a bottom-up approach,the research estimates climate damage across eight major sectors,recalibrates sectoral climate damage functions and parameters for China,and elucidates distinctions among direct climate loss,market climate loss,and aggregate climate loss.The findings reveal that the total climate damage function for China follows a quadratic pattern in response to temperature rise.By 2050,the estimated climate damage is projected to be 5.4%,5.7%,and 8.2%of GDP under RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5,respectively.Additionally,both direct and market climate losses are projected to remain below 2%of GDP by 2050,while the aggregate climate loss could reach as high as 8.2%,which is predominantly attributed to non-market sectors.From a sectoral perspective,under the RCP8.5 scenario,human health damage constitutes the largest share(61.9%)of the total climate loss by 2050,followed by sea-level rise damage(18.6%).This study sheds lights on the adaptation policy that should attach importance to the non-market sectors,particularly focusing on human health and sea-level rise.

Mapping the Global-Scale Maize Drought Risk Under Climate Change Based on the GEPIC-Vulnerability-Risk Model

Drought is projected to become more frequent and increasingly severe under climate change in many agriculturally important areas.However,few studies have assessed and mapped the future global crop drought risk—defined as the occurrence probability and likelihood of yield losses from drought—at high resolution.With support of the GEPIC-Vulnerability-Risk model,we propose an analytical framework to quantify and map the future global-scale maize drought risk at a 0.5°resolution.In this framework,the model can be calibrated and validated using datasets from in situ observations(for example,yield statistics,losses caused by drought)and the literature.Water stress and drought risk under climate change can then be simulated.To evaluate the applicability of the framework,a global-scale assessment of maize drought risk under 1.5℃warming was conducted.At 1.5℃warming,the maize drought risk is projected to be regionally variable(high in the midlatitudes and low in the tropics and subtropics),with only a minor negative(-0.93%)impact on global maize yield.The results are consistent with previous studies of drought impacts on maize yield of major agricultural countries around the world.Therefore,the framework can act as a practical tool for global-scale,future-oriented crop drought risk assessment,and the results provide theoretical support for adaptive planning strategies for drought.