Change trend of Chinese urban residents＇ per capita food-nitrogen annual consumption from 1981 to 2007 was analyzed and predicted by using ARIMA time-series model in order to reveal the change of urban food-nitrogen ...Change trend of Chinese urban residents＇ per capita food-nitrogen annual consumption from 1981 to 2007 was analyzed and predicted by using ARIMA time-series model in order to reveal the change of urban food-nitrogen consumption during the China＇s urbanization process.Results showed that after 1980s,the annual consumption of Chinese urban residents＇ food-nitrogen had a change trend of ＂ increase-decrease-increase＂ and generally presented as a slight increasing trend;With the acceleration of rapid economic development and urbanization process,Chinese urban residents＇ food-nitrogen consumption will still keep a rising trend in future,and also has a large rising space.展开更多
In 2015,the Central Bank cut interest rates six times in a row.There are two main purposes.The first is to reduce the interest burden on corporate loans,and stimulate corporate investment.The second is to reduce inter...In 2015,the Central Bank cut interest rates six times in a row.There are two main purposes.The first is to reduce the interest burden on corporate loans,and stimulate corporate investment.The second is to reduce interest income on residential deposits,and stimulate residents to increase current consumption.However,many empirical data prove that although the effect of interest rate decline on stimulating corporate investment is more obvious,the effect of stimulating residents to increase current consumption is not obvious,and household savings continue to grow rapidly instead.This shows that the main factor affecting the current consumption of residents is no longer the bank's deposit interest rate,but the irreplaceability of future consumer goods for current consumer goods,income restrictions and other economic factors that can affect cross-time consumption.Based on the theory of intertemporal utility maximization,this paper analyzes the impact of the rate change on China's residents' consumption,looks for the reasons why residents' consumption is not sensitive to changes in the rate,and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.展开更多
In 2015, The Central Bank cut interest rates six times in a row. There are two main purposes: one is to reduce the interest burden on corporate loans, and stimulate corporate investment. Second, to reduce interest inc...In 2015, The Central Bank cut interest rates six times in a row. There are two main purposes: one is to reduce the interest burden on corporate loans, and stimulate corporate investment. Second, to reduce interest income on residential deposits, and stimulate residents to increase current consumption. However, many empirical data prove that although the effect of interest rate decline on stimulating corporate investment is more obvious, the effect of stimulating residents to increase current consumption is not obvious, and household savings continue to grow rapidly. This shows that the main factor affecting the current consumption of residents is no longer the bank's deposit interest rate, but the irreplaceability of future consumer goods for current consumer goods, income restrictions and other economic factors that can affect cross-time consumption. This paper is based on the theory of intertemporal utility maximization. The empirical analysis of the impact of the rate change on China's residents' consumption, looking for the reasons why residents' consumption is not sensitive to changes in the rate, and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.展开更多
At first glance, the official figures of China's oil consumption in 2005 seem a bit confusing. With a robust economic growth and rising annual oil imports, China made the surprise announcement that its oil consump...At first glance, the official figures of China's oil consumption in 2005 seem a bit confusing. With a robust economic growth and rising annual oil imports, China made the surprise announcement that its oil consumption growth rate was dropping sharply, from 15.3 percent in 2004 to 2.1 percent in 2005. Earlier, China's Ministry展开更多
Based on the optimal consumption decisions of representative households and the relationship between their decisions and fiscal policy, we evaluate the impact of China＇s fiscal policy on urban and rural residents＇ m...Based on the optimal consumption decisions of representative households and the relationship between their decisions and fiscal policy, we evaluate the impact of China＇s fiscal policy on urban and rural residents＇ marginal propensity to consume. The result shows that since 1998 marginal propensity to consume has decreased by more than 20 percent, ＇and the decrease is not only due to income distribution, economic development level, expectations, consumption structure and other factors, but also closely related to the application of fiscal policy. Among these factors, the overall impact of unanticipated fiscal policy shocks is significant and negative. The policy option of using unforeseen increases in tax revenue as a financing instrument greatly diminishes the positive effects of structural adjustment. Therefore, to increase household consumption, it is necessary not only to raise residents＇ capacity for consumption by increasing fiscal revenue but also to stabilize consumer expectations and promote the marginal propensity to consume through adjusting fiscal revenue and expenditure policies.展开更多
基金Supported by State Council Special Fund for Pollution Sources Survey (WPXC2007C200)~~
文摘Change trend of Chinese urban residents＇ per capita food-nitrogen annual consumption from 1981 to 2007 was analyzed and predicted by using ARIMA time-series model in order to reveal the change of urban food-nitrogen consumption during the China＇s urbanization process.Results showed that after 1980s,the annual consumption of Chinese urban residents＇ food-nitrogen had a change trend of ＂ increase-decrease-increase＂ and generally presented as a slight increasing trend;With the acceleration of rapid economic development and urbanization process,Chinese urban residents＇ food-nitrogen consumption will still keep a rising trend in future,and also has a large rising space.
文摘In 2015,the Central Bank cut interest rates six times in a row.There are two main purposes.The first is to reduce the interest burden on corporate loans,and stimulate corporate investment.The second is to reduce interest income on residential deposits,and stimulate residents to increase current consumption.However,many empirical data prove that although the effect of interest rate decline on stimulating corporate investment is more obvious,the effect of stimulating residents to increase current consumption is not obvious,and household savings continue to grow rapidly instead.This shows that the main factor affecting the current consumption of residents is no longer the bank's deposit interest rate,but the irreplaceability of future consumer goods for current consumer goods,income restrictions and other economic factors that can affect cross-time consumption.Based on the theory of intertemporal utility maximization,this paper analyzes the impact of the rate change on China's residents' consumption,looks for the reasons why residents' consumption is not sensitive to changes in the rate,and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.
文摘In 2015, The Central Bank cut interest rates six times in a row. There are two main purposes: one is to reduce the interest burden on corporate loans, and stimulate corporate investment. Second, to reduce interest income on residential deposits, and stimulate residents to increase current consumption. However, many empirical data prove that although the effect of interest rate decline on stimulating corporate investment is more obvious, the effect of stimulating residents to increase current consumption is not obvious, and household savings continue to grow rapidly. This shows that the main factor affecting the current consumption of residents is no longer the bank's deposit interest rate, but the irreplaceability of future consumer goods for current consumer goods, income restrictions and other economic factors that can affect cross-time consumption. This paper is based on the theory of intertemporal utility maximization. The empirical analysis of the impact of the rate change on China's residents' consumption, looking for the reasons why residents' consumption is not sensitive to changes in the rate, and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.
文摘At first glance, the official figures of China's oil consumption in 2005 seem a bit confusing. With a robust economic growth and rising annual oil imports, China made the surprise announcement that its oil consumption growth rate was dropping sharply, from 15.3 percent in 2004 to 2.1 percent in 2005. Earlier, China's Ministry
文摘Based on the optimal consumption decisions of representative households and the relationship between their decisions and fiscal policy, we evaluate the impact of China＇s fiscal policy on urban and rural residents＇ marginal propensity to consume. The result shows that since 1998 marginal propensity to consume has decreased by more than 20 percent, ＇and the decrease is not only due to income distribution, economic development level, expectations, consumption structure and other factors, but also closely related to the application of fiscal policy. Among these factors, the overall impact of unanticipated fiscal policy shocks is significant and negative. The policy option of using unforeseen increases in tax revenue as a financing instrument greatly diminishes the positive effects of structural adjustment. Therefore, to increase household consumption, it is necessary not only to raise residents＇ capacity for consumption by increasing fiscal revenue but also to stabilize consumer expectations and promote the marginal propensity to consume through adjusting fiscal revenue and expenditure policies.
