Forecasting investment and consumption behavior of economic agents through dynamic computable general equilibrium model

Much research has been devoted to examination of the financial easing policy of the European Central Bank(ECB).However,this study is one of the first to use a dynamic micro-founded model to investigate empirically the impact of the ECB’s Quantitative Easing(QE)policy on consumption and investment by economic agents in Italy(households,government,firms,and the rest of the world).For this purpose,we constructed a Financial Social Accounting Matrix(FSAM)for the Italian economy for the year 2009 to calibrate a dynamic computable general equilibrium model(DCGE).This model allowed us to evaluate the direct and indirect impact of money flow on the behavior of consumption and investment.The findings of the study confirmed the positive impact of the ECB’s monetary policy on the level of investment and consumption.

Analysis on Investment Behavior of Agricultural Sector in China

In the process of industrialization, China has been a big agricultural country, and the agricultural sector＇s economic activities have been playing important role in economic growth. This paper established the investment behavior model of agricultural enterprises on the basis of Chinese practice. And then, the model presented the important factors impacting on investment, such as financing cost, wage, and policy factors, etc. Thirdly, this paper in particular used R-studio to estimate the impact of fmancing cost and policy factor on investment and capital accumulation of primary industry sector by gathering the data from 2003 to 2013. The results showed that the official interest rate of loans of financial institutions could be the proxy variable as the financing cost of agricultural enterprises, and the employment level of agricultural enterprises had negative impact on investment. Finally, this paper provided some explanations and suggestions on the basis of above results.

Local Government Behavior behind China's Excessive Investment under Decentralization——Theoretical and Empirical Analysis Based on Manufacturing Sector

This paper investigates the effect of local government intervention on capital deepening of manufacturing sector by using interprovincial panel data sets of 28 Chinese provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions between 1994 and 2011.Theoretical research indicates that as a transitional economy,China's local government intervention in corporate investment behaviors will cause excessive investment,thus bringing about a long-term and sustained tendency of capital deepening in manufacturing sector.Empirical test further discovers that in a certain range,the phenomenon of capital deepening in manufacturing sector is not an inevitable result endogenous to economic development and technology progress,and that investment behaviors of manufacturing sector are largely subject to the external institutional environment.Fiscal decentralization has indeed promoted capital deepening of manufacturing sector.Financial credit expansion and interventions in SOEs are major instruments for local governments to intervene in the capital deepening of manufacturing sector and such an influence is particularly significant for China's central,western and northeast regions.Therefore,clarifying government functions and improving local government performance review mechanism are of great significance to the healthy development of China's manufacturing sector.

Corporation Strategic Investment on Behavioral Finance

The traditional DCF approach ignoring the managerial flexibility of the decision makers often underestimates the value of project value. This paper not only takes into account the uncertainty of investment and the irreversibility of the sunk cost, but also takes the competitors＇ erode to the project value into it. Relax the EMH and the rationality of the investor＇s hypothesis, integrate the behavioral finance theory and the game option, and construct the valuing frame based on the behavioral finance and game option theory to make a scientific and effective project decision-making approach.

Behavioral Finance Theory and Its Application in Investment Decision

Behavioral finance theory is constantly relaxing or even abandons traditional financial theory rational man assumptions and the efficient market hypothesis, based on the decision-making process to the actual person＇s psychological characteristics as variables studied financial market vision, such as asset pricing and portfolio a series of questions theoretical system. In this paper, from home and abroad on behavioral finance theory, based on the current situation in our country from the company＇s investment policy analysis behavioral finance theory in corporate finance in the application, in order for some of our corporate decision makers to provide a non-decision against the company fully rational and non-efficient market investment strategy.

Compression behavior of 316L lattice structures produced by indirect additive manufacturing

As a new type of lightweight structure,metallic lattice structure has higher stiffness and strength to weight ratio.To freely obtain 316L lattice structures with designed cell structure and adjustable porosity,additive manufacturing combined with investment casting was conducted to fabricate the 316L lattice structures with Kelvin cell.The compression simulation of 316L lattice structures with different porosities was carried out by using the finite element method.The numerical simulation results were verified by compression experiment,and the simulated results were consistent with the compression tests.The compressive mechanical properties of 316L lattice structures are directly related to porosity and independent of strut diameters.The 316L lattice structures with Kelvin cell have a smooth stress-strain curve and obvious plastic platform,and the hump stress-strain curves are avoided.

Children Education Investment of Rural Families in Hechuan District of Chongqing Municipality

Taking 20 relative poor families in Hechuan District of Chongqing Municipality as survey samples,taking 275 households of rural families selected by stratified sampling method as research objects,and taking family education investment behavior of this rural area as research content,this paper studied current situations of rural family education investment behavior in Hechuan District,difference in investment behavior and related influence factors. It is intended to provide references for family education investment of rural areas in Hechuan District and even Chongqing Municipality,and promote development of rural education undertaking in China.

Research on the Relationship Between Financial Redundancy, Financing Constraints and Investment Efficiency in Manufacturing Listed Companies

Investment helps companies achieve innovation. Efficient investments often do more with less. Manufacturing enterprises should pay more attention to the issue of investment efficiency, seize investment opportunities and achieve efficient investment. Due to the continuous increase of borrowing costs in the financial markets, enterprises are getting more and more difficult to raise funds from the outside, so more and more enterprises are turning their attention to the financially redundant resources within the enterprises. Making good use of financially redundant resources will help enterprises solve the financing difficulties and enable them to have sufficient funds for investment activities and lay the foundation for sustainable development.

研究生课程学习行为投入动机差异及其影响分析

基于对研究生课程教学质量的调查数据显示,不同学习动机的研究生其学习行为具有明显差异,性别、学位及学科门类等基本特征也影响不同学习动机的研究生学习行为;具有内在学习动机的研究生学习行为更加有活力度、专注度和奉献度,而具有外在学习动机的研究生其各项学习行为均偏弱;其中对于学习的反思与批判行为是所有研究生学习行为的较弱项,尤其博士研究生更低;女性研究生的各项学习行为值均稍低于男性,尤其反思和批评行为。研究建议应提高研究生学习内在动力,培养学生批判和反思能力,鼓励研究生勇于质疑且正确评价,教师应改变教学内容和方法,形成讨论和研究氛围,博士生更应注重反思性、批判性、评价性等高阶学习过程,同时,大学应建立长效研究生学习投入及满意度调查机制。

经营投资问责能否提升国有企业投资效率?

建立健全经营投资问责制度是新时期深化国有企业改革的关键举措,对有效防止国有资产流失和实现国有企业高质量发展至关重要。文章基于各地区违规经营投资责任追究工作相继实施的制度背景,通过构建多期双重差分模型来实证考察经营投资问责对国有企业投资效率的具体影响和内在机制。研究发现,经营投资问责能显著提升国有企业投资效率,且主要表现为抑制过度投资;机制分析发现,经营投资问责既能通过治理效应减少管理层机会主义行为,又可以发挥信息效应提升国有企业信息透明度,进而抑制国有企业非效率投资行为;异质性分析表明,经营投资问责对国有企业投资效率的提升作用在地方国有企业、商业竞争类及党组织治理嵌入度高的样本中更为显著;此外,经营投资问责通过改善国有企业投资效率,提升了国有企业价值和实现了国有资产保值增值。研究结论不仅为经营投资问责制度的实施提供了直接的经验证据,也对进一步深化我国国有企业改革,推进新时代国有企业治理体系建设具有重要政策启示。

明星分析师关注、企业投资行为与公司价值

企业投资行为对于中国经济高质量发展与“双循环”国家战略实施发挥重要作用。通过手工搜集2016—2021年明星分析师研究报告数据,研究明星分析师对公司投资行为的影响。研究发现,明星分析师通过缓解融资约束、增强股票流动性、解读研发行为,促进企业投资行为,而且明星分析师在管理层持股比例较低、大股东持股比例低、成长性水平较低、公司透明度较低的样本中,结果更加显著,体现其较好的专业胜任能力。进一步分析发现,明星分析师能够解读不同盈利分组的投资行为,不存在明显的选择性偏好;与没有明星分析师跟踪的样本相比,明星分析师跟踪对投资行为具有更强的影响;明星分析师通过正向解读投资行为途径,对公司价值挖掘,发挥积极作用。研究结论对发挥明星分析师信息中介作用,优化投资结构与提升投资绩效,提供经验参考。

市场情绪与基金投资策略:迎合还是修正?

基金投资策略选择是学术界、监管者和市场参与者共同关注的焦点.本文根据行为资产定价理论将基金投资策略量化为组合收益的市场情绪敏感度,首次在微观层面对其按照市场状态分类界定为迎合情绪策略与修正情绪策略,通过理论模型和实证检验探究基金的投资策略选择对其流量、风险和经理努力程度产生的系统影响,从行为委托代理视角剖析基金业绩的影响机制.研究发现:基金采取迎合策略时,对投资者特别是个体投资者更有吸引力,但会对投资者利益造成隐性侵害,表现为基金未来的风险增大、收益降低,且基金经理在无需付出更多努力的情况下可获得更高报酬.进一步分析表明,基金经理为取悦投资者的消极放任行为是其业绩表现不佳的重要原因;基金采取修正策略时,产生的系列影响则完全相反.本研究为中小投资者的投资实践、基金治理与监管,及解释基金市场异象提供了新的思路与启示.

创新视角下碳市场推动经济体绿色转型的微观机理

绿色创新是脱碳之源,亦是实现“双碳”目标的根本途径,但市场失灵常常导致其供给不足,需要宏观政策给予必要的引导。那么,碳市场政策能否有效推动经济体绿色创新体系建设?循理方能事成,该研究从企业投资视角构建碳市场推动经济体低碳创新微观驱动和绿色转型宏观演变的理论分析框架。为验证碳市场下企业早期投资行为的动态特征,作者基于中国2000—2019年A股上市公司面板数据,建立一阶差分广义矩估计模型进行实证分析,结论如下:①碳市场政策信息显著促进了企业早期投资结构的动态调整,持续推动企业生产设备绿色升级和生产工艺绿色创新,是经济体绿色创新体系建设的有力支撑。②碳市场对企业投资调整和绿色创新的引导路径存在行业间差异,低隐含碳服务行业致力于生产设备升级,高隐含碳生产行业则倾向于产品创新。③区域经济发展水平和绿色税收优惠政策显著影响碳市场下的企业绿色创新投资决策。④在碳市场下,企业绿色技术创新水平的提升对于其他类型创新不存在挤出效应,且对经济体综合创新发展存在正向激励。据此,应稳步推进全国统一碳市场的建设和运行,因地制宜、因势利导地完善“碳市场推动中国经济体绿色技术创新体系建设”的协同、配套政策,助力碳市场成为促进企业绿色技术创新、推动经济体绿色转型、实现高质量碳达峰和如期碳中和的长效机制。

风险投资机构二元关系的演变及其退出效应研究

基于中国风投市场2004—2018年的投资事件数据和2004—2021年的退出数据,构建风险投资机构成对的数据集,研究风险投资二元关系演变的影响因素,进而探讨其对退出的影响。研究发现,风投机构间的匹配度、网络位置、历史联合投资行为对其二元关系产生显著的正面影响,而风投机构的间接合作伙伴会对此有显著的负面影响。进一步分析发现,风投机构匹配度越高、网络位置越中心、历史联合投资行为越多,其退出的可能性越小。研究结论对风险投资机构如何选择合作伙伴有一定的借鉴意义。

我国个人养老金制度有效性分析及完善路径

基于行为生命周期理论和前景理论阐述了个人养老金的制度设计,分析了我国个人养老金制度的深层运行逻辑,发现个人养老储蓄心理账户不可替代、投资风险厌恶程度高、税收优惠政策吸引力有限等问题,提出了增设默认机制、加强市场和政府调节监督力度及补充税收优惠模式等手段来完善个人养老金制度。

地权稳定性对国有农场职工土地投资行为的影响研究

加强土地投资是改善农业生产条件、提高农业生产效率的有效途径。文章基于新疆国有农场517份职工调查数据,采用Ologit模型实证检验了地权稳定性对国有农场职工土地投资行为作用机制和影响效应。研究结果表明:地权稳定性对国有农场职工的土地投资行为具有显著正向影响,其中对职工土地保护性投资的边际效应影响强于农田基础设施投资;信贷可得性在地权稳定性对土地投资行为的影响中发挥了中介作用,非正式制度在这一过程中发挥着正向调节作用;异质性分析表明,地权稳定性对青年职工和高中学历职工土地投资行为的边际效应更大。据此,建议继续加强国有农场土地的地权稳定性,健全完善国有农场土地投资的配套制度,发挥好信贷支持和非正式制度的作用以缓解国有农场职工的土地投资约束,进一步优化国有农场职工的年龄和学历结构。

政策不确定性下的企业双元创新抉择:“探索”还是“利用”?

选取2016—2021年我国A股2944家上市企业的数据,检验了地方主要官员变更所带来的政策不确定性对企业研发投入及双元创新行为选择的影响。结果表明,地方官员变更会降低企业研发强度,并提高企业在探索式创新方面的投入占比。相比市委书记,市长的变更对企业创新行为选择的影响更为显著,且市长的学历和专业背景对其影响具有显著调节作用。经进一步研究发现,企业产权性质和规模具有调节效应,显著影响了市长变更对企业探索式创新行为选择的作用效果;且市委书记和市长同时变更会带来更大的政治冲击,对企业创新行为的影响也会随之加剧。

行为金融视角下的风险感知

在世界秩序大变革、大调整的时代背景下,全球金融治理进入新时期,国际金融环境趋于复杂严峻。同时,金融市场拥有丰富的金融产品,作为金融市场的主要参与者,个人投资者在作出投资决策时往往受限于自身金融知识、金融素养、风险承受能力等因素,面临着巨大的风险,能否正确感知到自身所面临的风险,对于投资者后续作出合理的投资决策至关重要。考虑到传统金融学所采用的研究方法对风险感知作为心理变量准确定义的忽视,可从行为金融的视角,了解风险感知的概念、测量方法、影响因素等;系统梳理和回顾国内外风险感知研究,指出当前行为金融视角下,风险感知研究一方面未有普适性的理论和方法,另一方面缺乏对无关变量的控制。展望未来,应加强理论构建,完善研究理论范式。

战略差异度对企业风险承担行为的影响研究

结合企业行为理论与最优区分理论,运用2010~2020年我国A股上市公司的面板数据,考察战略差异度对企业创新投入(进取式风险承担行为)与寻租支出(越轨式风险承担行为)的影响效应。研究发现:①当企业战略定位偏离行业常规模式的程度越大时,其创新投入水平越高,而寻租支出水平越低,呈现出“小心翼翼进取”的冒险倾向;②机构投资者持股与国有产权同时抑制了战略差异度对创新投入的正向影响,以及其对寻租支出的负向影响。

高校辅导员情感劳动的行为表征、投入机制与应对机制

情感劳动理论充分关注个人情感是如何在工作中进行控制、管理和展现的。高校辅导员情感劳动兼具以德育人、职业自洽、情感投入的行为表征,从情感陪伴、倾听共情和自我调节三个方面进行,同时会产生负面情绪、共情缺失、日常工作与情感劳动的平衡问题。作为自然人的高校辅导员,在提供大量情感劳动的同时,也亟需更多的正向反馈和应对策略。