The Prediction for the Consumer Price Index of Residents in Perspective of Time Series Method in Case of Chongqing

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the relative number of changes in the price level of consumer goods and services over time, reflecting the trend and degree of changes in the price level of goods and services purchased by residents. This article uses the ARMA model to analyze the fluctuation trend of the CPI (taking Chongqing as an example) and make short-term predictions. To test the predictive performance of the model, the observation values from January to December 2023 were retained as the reference object for evaluating the predictive accuracy of the model. Finally, through trial predictions of the data from May to August 2023, it was found that the constructed model had good fitting performance.

The Empirical Analysis of Difference of Urban-rural Residents’ Marginal Propensity to Consume

According to the data concerning consumption and income in 55 Years of Statistics Chronicle of New China,China Statistical Yearbook,by using econometric model,this paper expounds the reason of shortage of residents’ consumption demand in China and tests the difference of marginal propensity to consume of China's urban-rural residents.The results show that the urban residents’ marginal propensity to consume is greater than rural residents’ marginal propensity to consume in China,but the urban residents’ marginal propensity to consume tends to decline,while the rural residents’ marginal propensity to consume tends to rise.In terms of urban-rural income structure,consumption structure and consumption of consumer durables,this paper analyzes the reason of the change of urban-rural residents’ marginal propensity to consume,and it can be described from following 3 aspects:first,urban residents’ income is mainly wage and salary,while urban residents’ income is mainly operating net income.The urban residents are conservative towards the expected income,while rural residents are relatively optimistic towards the expected income;second,in comparison with rural residents’ consumption structure,the urban residents’ consumption structure has big proportion of unessential expenditure,so the income elasticity of consumption is big;third,the urban residents’ traditional consumer durables approach saturation,while the rural residents’ traditional consumer durables are still at the period of increase,and the urban residents’ purchase of emerging consumer durables is inhibited,with great fluctuation.Based on research results and actual situation,this paper puts forward that the key of spurring increase of China's consumption demand is to expand consumption demand of rural residents.

Comparative Analysis of Urban-rural Residents' Propensity to Consume in China's Four Regions

According to the data in China Statistical Yearbook from 1992 to 2008,by using regression model,we adopt least square method and generalized least square method to conduct empirical analysis on the relationship between urban-rural residents' income and consumption in China's east,northeast,central region and west.The results show that the urban-rural residents' propensity to consume in China's four regions has prominent characteristics.In terms of region,urban residents' marginal propensity to consume takes on irregular fluctuation,while the rural residents' propensity to consume conforms to law of diminishing of marginal propensity to consume;in terms of time sequence,the rural residents' marginal propensity to consume in China's four regions takes on "multi-U-form" fluctuation trend,and the rural residents' marginal propensity to consume in different regions has certain difference,while the urban residents' marginal propensity to consume takes on low-frequency broad width fluctuation trend;the urban-rural residents' average marginal propensity to consume in China's four regions conforms to the law of diminishing.In order to increase consumption and promote the balanced rapid development of regional economy,in light of the urban-rural difference and characteristics of different regions,we should propound effective measures to promote urban-rural residents' propensity to consume,and formulate and implement regional policy in order to stimulate consumption.

Modelling the Roles of Cewebrity Trust and Platform Trust in Consumers’Propensity of Live-Streaming:An Extended TAM Method

Live streaming is a booming industry in China,involving an increasing number of Internet users.Previous studies show that trust is a cornerstone to develop ecommerce.Trust in the streaming industry is different from that of other e-commerce areas.There are two major dimensions of trust in the live streaming context:platform trust and cewebrity trust,which are both important for customers to adopt and reuse a specific live streaming service.We collected questionnaire data from 520 participates who have used live streaming services in China.We model the collected data and identified factors that can influence users’propensity by an extended technology acceptance model(TAM)method.According to our analysis,both cewebrity trust and platform trust will greatly influence users’intention to reuse a certain platform.Moreover,results also indicate that cewebrity trust is far more important than platform trust.These findings can lead to several management strategies to improve the adherence of users to streaming platforms.

Co-integration Analysis of the Relationship between Residents' Consumer Spending and GDP in Hubei Province

In accordance with the economic data from Statistical Communique on National Economy and Social Development in Hubei Province in the period 1980-2009, we use co-integration analysis method to research the impact of GDP growth on residents' consumer spending. Result shows that although there are differences between GDP and residents' consumer spending in the short term, the equilibrium relationship exists between them, namely, the co-integration relationship, showing consistency in trends.

Difference of Urban-rural Residents' Income and Consumption in Chongqing City from 2000 to 2009

By selecting the relevant indices of data concerning the income and consumption of urban residents and rural residents in Chongqing City from 2000 to 2009,we adopt empirical analysis method and comparative analysis method to conduct comparative analysis from overall level,consumption structure and regional difference.The results show that income level is the most direct and fundamental factor impacting urban-rural residents' consumption,and eventually determines the consumption level and consumption structure of urban-rural residents;the consumption structure of urban-rural residents in Chongqing City takes on prominent dual structure,with conspicuous gap between urban areas and rural areas;the level of income and consumption of urban-rural residents in Chongqing City is lower than the national average,especially for the rural residents;the gap of income per capita and consumption per capita of rural residents in " One-hour Economic Circle" and "Two Wings" of Chongqing City is prominent.Corresponding policy suggestions are put forward as follows:improve financial transfer payment system;quicken the pace of urbanization;coordinate urban-rural industrial development;guide farmers to establish correct consumption idea.

Comparison among the Consumption Structures of Different Income Groups of Urban Residents in Guangxi Based on ELES Model

According to the household consumption data of urban residents in Guangxi Statistical Yearbook in the year 2009, the ELES (Extended Linear Expenditure System) is used to analyze the consumption structure, the propensity to consume, and the consumer flexibility of urban residents in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of China in the year 2008. Result shows that urban residents in Guangxi has relatively low propensity to consume. And their consumption, especially the middle and low-income families, is mostly concentrated in food, cloth, lodging and other basic necessities of life, which account for more than a half of their income. Based on this, corresponding suggestions are put forward to enlarge the consumption demand of urban residents in Guangxi, such as increasing the regulation of income redistribution, minimizing the gap between the rich and the poor, enhancing the overall consumption level, cultivating the consumption hot spots for the urban residents, and actively guiding the enjoyable consumption.

The Influencing Factors and Inter-Group Differences for Urban Residents' Behavior of Consuming Edible Vegetable Oil

To clarify the determinant factors and inter-group differences of Chinese urban residents' edible vegetable oil consuming behavior is very important for us to understand their consumption features of edible vegetable oil,so as to guide their consuming behavior and improve China's vegetable oil industry security.In this article,urban residents of China's three traditional vegetable oil main production areas have been chosen as study objects,and multiple linear regression and one-way ANOVA have been used to do empirical analysis on the determinant factors and inter-group differences of their edible vegetable oil consuming behavior.The results indicate that the edible vegetable oil consuming behavior of urban residents from China's three traditional vegetable oil main production areas show a trend of diversification;" publicity measures"," preference evaluation"," personal characteristics" and " family characteristics" remarkably affect urban residents' edible vegetable oil consuming behavior and show obvious provincial characteristics.In addition,urban residents from different groups show differences in terms of " publicity measures" and " preference evaluation".

The Impact of the Income Gap in Rural China on Residents' Consumption Based on Theil Index

This paper measures the Chinese regional income distribution gap based on the Theil index with data of 31 provinces in China from 1998 to 2011. The results showed that overall the income gap between China's rural areas was on the rise from 1998 to 2006,and the income gap was mainly caused by the gap between the East China,Central China and West China. After 2006,it showed a slow decline. The dynamic panel data model established for consumer demand,spending habits,income,regional income disparities showed that income and regional income disparities significantly influence consumer demand of rural residents. Before 2006 regional income gap inhibited the consumption of rural residents,but it promoted consumption after 2006.

Dynamic Analysis of Interaction between Rural Residents' Consumption and Income

In recent years,the income and consumption level of farmers is lower than that of urban residents,and in the context of current grave international economic environment,it is very unfavorable to expanding domestic demand and stimulating economic growth. Based on the empirical analysis of rural residents' income and consumption,this paper explores the reasons for lagging consumption of rural residents in China,and finally puts forth the recommendations for increasing farmers' income,promoting farmers' consumption and expanding the rural market.

Research on the Consumption Function of Rural Residents in Hunan Province

Based on literature review,according to relevant consumption data in Hunan Statistical Yearbook and China Statistical Yearbook during1978-2009,the thesis selects three indexes involving the average income per rural resident,per capita living expenses of rural residents and percapita savings to conduct the unit root and co-integration test on the consumption and net income per rural residents in Hunan Province by adoptingthe generalized difference method and EVIEWS6.0,then according to the Modigliani Hypothesis of Consumption,Duesenberry Hypothesis of Con-sumption and Keynes Absolute Income Hypothesis,the thesis makes a fitting of Hunan consumption function model,aiming to find out the consump-tion function model suitable to Hunan Province.The results show that,Keynesian consumption function based on Absolute Income Hypothesis pas-ses the statistical test and econometric test,while the consumption function model based on Relative Income Hypothesis and that based on Life Cy-cle Hypothesis do not,which proves that the consumption function model based on Absolute Income Hypothesis is better suited for describing the re-lations between rural consumption and income in Hunan Province.Taking into account the low marginal propensity of consumption of the rural resi-dents in Hunan Province,the thesis proposes to expand consumption demand of rural residents:firstly,developing characteristic economy and im-proving the income level of rural residents;secondly,perfecting the social security system in rural areas and maintaining the consumption confi-dence of rural residents;thirdly,ameliorating the circulation system.

Fiscal Policy and Urban and Rural Residents' Marginal Propensity to Consume

Based on the optimal consumption decisions of representative households and the relationship between their decisions and fiscal policy, we evaluate the impact of China＇s fiscal policy on urban and rural residents＇ marginal propensity to consume. The result shows that since 1998 marginal propensity to consume has decreased by more than 20 percent, ＇and the decrease is not only due to income distribution, economic development level, expectations, consumption structure and other factors, but also closely related to the application of fiscal policy. Among these factors, the overall impact of unanticipated fiscal policy shocks is significant and negative. The policy option of using unforeseen increases in tax revenue as a financing instrument greatly diminishes the positive effects of structural adjustment. Therefore, to increase household consumption, it is necessary not only to raise residents＇ capacity for consumption by increasing fiscal revenue but also to stabilize consumer expectations and promote the marginal propensity to consume through adjusting fiscal revenue and expenditure policies.

出口退税、消费者福利与高水平对外开放

在国际贸易环境不稳定及中国国内构建新发展格局的双重背景下,二十大报告指出要进一步畅通供需双侧循环,持续推进以扩大内需为基本导向的高水平对外开放。如今出口退税对供给及外需侧的研究已得到广泛关注,但关于其对内需侧影响的研究却较少。文章利用2004—2021年产品层面出口退税率数据及中国地区层面价格与工资等数据,考察了出口退税对中国消费者福利水平的影响。研究表明,出口退税率上调会通过降低物价水平即降低消费效应和提高工资水平即增加收入效应来提高消费者福利。进一步的异质性分析表明出口退税的上调对低收入群体及东部地区福利提升水平更大。因此,政府应进一步推进出口退税政策的实施,充分发挥在其促外贸、扩内需的作用,以实现更高水平的对外开放。

在改革中扩大内需的系统框架与政策建议——基于收入水平、支出成本、供给质量三大变量视角

刺激消费被视为扩大内需的主要思路。然而,这一命题的两大前提:居民储蓄率高而消费率低以及将消费行为视为居民愿意掏钱即可完成的单方面行为,都不能成立。为准确找到扩大内需的方向,从内需概念的传统界定思路出发,认为静态截面式的研究视角让内需的真实内涵以及决定性因素被忽略。在此基础上,明确指出消费是收入水平、支出成本与供给质量三大变量的函数。而收入增速下降导致居民不愿消费、大额长期性消费压力导致居民不敢消费、供给质量偏低导致居民不能消费,共同构成了中国内需不足的系统成因。对此,成功扩大内需,须以实现居民收入增长为根本目标,并从工资性收入、财产性收入、经营性收入与转移性收入四方面分别采取改革举措,让居民愿消费;着眼于住房、医疗、义务教育三方面,以降低成本为主要抓手,让居民敢消费;以吸引支出为发展导向,以法律保障、品牌培育、研发支撑、政策支持等方面为着力点,让居民能消费。

电商短期信贷息费优惠、降价与促消费:“分期免息”能带来好处吗?

中国电商平台与消费信贷服务深度融合,使入驻厂商能够灵活地发起息费优惠,并将其作为一种促销手段与降价行为相联动。以京东商城2022年包括“白条”息费优惠、价格、销量、用户评论等多维度信息的电视机产品月度数据构建动态面板回归模型进行实证分析,结果表明电商短期消费信贷的息费优惠确实可以促进消费者购买,但商家在提供息费优惠时,相应产品的价格会被相对抬高。不过,结合现实市场利率与估计结果匡算息费优惠措施的综合效果,发现即使考虑价格相对上涨,消费者仍然能够以较低的代价获得分期付款服务,而商家代替消费者支付相应息费所得到的促销效果与直接给予等额降价基本相当。上述结论反映出电商短期消费信贷的优惠在促进居民消费中的积极作用。

重大不利事件的经历体验对个人消费的影响

消费是牵引经济发展的重要力量,然而近年来我国消费一直处于低迷状态。三年新冠疫情的经历体验可能改变一些民众的消费倾向,影响当下和未来的消费。1959-1961年的大饥荒波及范围广,持续时间长,距离当下久远,为讨论新冠疫情等重大不利事件的经历体验对个体消费行为的长期影响提供了借鉴。大饥荒重塑了经历者的风险偏好和时间偏好,对经历者的消费水平产生了长期负向影响,尤其是在三组分类中,对非稳定收入家庭的个体、处于中等社会经济水平家庭的个体以及女性经历者的负向影响更为显著,但数字支付的使用却可以缓解这一负向影响。因此,后疫情时代扩大内需应减少经济发展的不确定性,着力促进居民尤其是女性收入稳定增长,缓解中等收入群体生活压力,支持数字经济发展。

消费者异质性视角下婴幼儿奶粉购买意愿影响因素研究

随着中国疫情管控措施放开,国产和进口婴幼儿奶粉竞争愈发激烈,探究中国消费者婴幼儿奶粉购买意愿将为政策制定者和婴幼儿奶粉生产者提供一定现实依据。文章以8个城市中877位婴幼儿奶粉消费者为样本,以BRA模型为基础从认知角度构建理论模型框架,探究消费者对国产婴幼儿奶粉购买意愿影响因素,基于消费者居住地为调节变量对各路径进行异质性检验。结果表明,关注度对信任度具有显著正向影响;关注度、信任度、感知收益和感知风险均直接影响购买意愿,关注度以感知收益为中介变量间接正向影响购买意愿,信任度以感知收益和感知风险为中介变量间接正向影响购买意愿;居住地在部分路径中具有调节作用。城市组中,三四线城市组中信任度对感知风险和购买意愿影响更大,一二线城市组中关注度对购买意愿影响更大;县城组中,关注度对消费者购买意愿无显著直接和间接影响,感知风险对购买意愿无直接影响。

城市居民对富硒食品的认知态度与消费行为研究

随着时代的发展,人们对日常饮食的营养健康更加重视。富硒食品因具有提高免疫力作用,很好地契合了人们日益增长的健康饮食需求,具有极大的市场发展潜力。了解城市居民对富硒食品的认知和消费状况是有效推进富硒食品产业发展的关键一环。本文通过问卷设计、调查访谈、随机抽样、数据分析等方法,剖析城市居民对富硒食品的认知和消费现状。结果表明,富硒食品具有良好的市场认可价值和强烈的消费需求,需避免随意夸大产品功效的营销模式,提高供应商和消费者对健康食品的认知水平,持续推进硒科普宣传,完善富硒食品标准和行业规范。

财税政策对城乡居民消费的影响研究——以海南省为例

中央经济工作会议对经济工作的部署中提出“明年要坚持稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破”。推动经济实现质的提升和量的增长,必须将坚持深化供给侧结构性改革和着力扩大有效需求相结合。海南省近年来致力于建设国际旅游消费中心,文章以海南省为例,首先对海南省城镇居民和农村居民的边际消费倾向进行测算,分析其消费潜力,其次对财税政策与城乡居民消费的关系进行研究,最后提出扩大海南省城乡居民需求的建议。