Examination of Resource Curse Hypothesis: Mineral Resources Exploitation and Economic Growth in Xinjiang Autonomous Region

The mineral resources exploitation stage and the economic growth rate are various in different regions of Xinjiang Autonomous region. Using the method of location quotient, this paper identifies and classifies the intensive regions of three types of mineral resources, known as coal, oil and natural gas, respectively. The intensive regions of economic growth were also identified, according to the rate of per capita GDP growth at prefecture, autonomous prefecture and city. The relationships between different mineral resources and economic growth are different, for example, the relationship between economic growth and coal resource is positive, while the relationship between economic growth and oil resource, or natural gas resource is negative. This study empirically examines the effects of natural resources on economic growth of Xinjiang. The results show that whilst natural resources have a positive impact on growth, and can make a negative impact on growth through the transmission channels, such as investment, manufacture, human capital, and scientific and technologic innovation. Moreover, it studies the transmission channels, that is, the effect of natural resources on the other explanatory variables, and calculates the indirect effect of natural resources on growth for each transmission channel, and comprehensive effects of natural resources on growth. The calculated result of comprehensive effects indicates that the positive direct effects of natural resources on growth are shown to outweigh the negative indirect effect of Xinjiang autonomous region.

Water Resource and Regional Economic Growth Study Based on Panel Data

Empirical analysis to the relationship between water resource scarcity degree and economic growth were done by building relationship model between water resource scarcity degree and regional economic growth with provincial panel data of 30 provinces during 2000-2009. The analysis results show that, in water resource scarcity regions, the shortage of water resource is the key factor of restricting economic development. In order to alleviate the shortage of water resource and meet the needs of economic development to water resource, it is necessary to speed up the establishment of water right trading market and finally achieve the goal of water-saving and regulation of water resource by economic leverage. The specific countermeasures include： first, comprehensively considering the endowment difference of water resource when carrying out industrial planning and layout; second, speeding up the establishment of water right trading market and revising water-saving incentive mechanism; third, increasing fiscal transfer payment ability to the provinces of outputting water resource; fourth, strengthening industrial guidance, making moderate industrial transfer and population movement; fifth, paying attention to science, technology and education investment, to improve utilization efficiency of water resource.

Energy Abundance and China's Economic Growth: 2000–2014

Based on the interprovincial panel data of 2000–2014, this paper carries out an empirical analysis on the relationship between energy abundance and economic growth to test the theoretical hypothesis of ‘resource curse' and explore its transmission mechanism for China and its three regions. The results show that, at the national level, positive correlation is present between energy abundance and economic growth, proving that the ‘resource curse' phenomenon does not exist in China as a whole. Moreover, material capital input, human capital input and the level of opening to the outside world could promote economic growth, while technology innovation input may hinder economic growth. As seen by region, a positive correlation also exists between the energy abundance and economic growth in the eastern and western regions, and there is no ‘resource curse' phenomenon either. In all three regions, the human capital input could promote economic growth. Material capital input could promote economic growth in the eastern but hinder economic growth in the western region; the level of opening to the outside world could promote economic growth in the eastern region. It is known through further survey and analysis on the transmission mechanism of resource curse that, at the national level, material capital input, human capital input, and the level of opening to the outside world present positive correlation with energy abundance, indicating that energy development becomes an important transmission factor by strengthening material capital input and human capital input and raising the level of opening to the outside world. However, technology innovation input presents negative correlation with energy development. As seen by region, both the material capital input and human capital input present positive correlation with energy development strength in the three regions. Similar as the eastern region, the level of opening to the outside world presents positive correlation with energy industry development in the middle and western regions; however, the energy development presents negative correlation with technology input level in the western region.

Validity Checks for Natural Resource Regulation on Regional Economic Growth in China on the Basis of Provincial Panel Data

We analyze the mechanism of natural resource regulation on regional economic growth and estimate the model based on panel data for 31 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2009. Our findings suggest that a fixed effect model is more appropriate than a mixed cross section or random effect model. A fixed effect model between natural resource regulation and regional economic growth quantity and quality was constructed to check the validity of natural resource regulation on regional economic growth. We found that natural resource regulation is effective at regulating regional economic growth; and natural resource regulation restrains regional economic speed to some extent. The per unit growth of natural resource regulation intensity will cut 24.6 billion CNY in gross domestic product; however, natural resource regulation can improve the quality of regional economic growth. Growth in the per unit natural resource regulation intensity will increase the index of regional economic growth quality by 0.022 units. In summary, these data support the proposal for using natural resources to regulate regional economic growth and transformation.

China and Natural Resource Curse in Developing Countries： Empirical Evidence from a Cross-country Study

China＇s rising demand for natural resources and its growing presence in many poor and resource-rich countries have been criticized for promoting neo-colonialism in the 21st century. Using panel data for 135 developing countries from 1995 to 2007, the present paper empirically evaluates the validity of such claims. Our findings do not support the resource curse thesis in the areas of industrialization and economic growth. Moreover, the effect of resources is conditional on the initial quality of political institutions in a country.

Impact of natural resource mining on sustainable economic development:The role of education and green innovation in China

As the extraction and usage of natural resources continue to be a double-edged sword-supporting economic growth but deteriorating the environment-we study the impact of natural resource mining on sustainable economic development in the largest(PPP)economy-China.We use province-level data from 2001 to 2020 and employ econometric panel techniques,such as fixed effects,two-stage least squares,and a battery of robustness tests.We further explore the potential effects of education and green innovation in mitigating/exacerbating the role of natural resources in the Chinese provincial economy.The results show that:(1)Natural resource mining hurts sustainable development,verifying the“resource curse”effect.(2)Green innovation and education restrain the negative impact of resource mining on sustainable development,turning the curse into a blessing.(3)A regional heterogeneity is observed in the impact of resource mining on sustainable development,showing more significant effects in the Western and low-urbanized regions.(4)Green innovation and education can assuage the curse effect of natural resources into gospel effect.Policy implications and recommendations are proposed in light of the findings to promote sustainable economic development in China.

绿色考核能破解“资源诅咒”吗?——来自资源型城市的证据

因面临“资源诅咒”问题,传统资源型城市如何通过绿色转型实现可持续发展,一直是困扰学界和政界的重大难题。该研究以中央政府节能减排目标考核政策为切入点,探讨绿色考核对资源型城市绿色转型发展的作用机制和经济后果。在理论分析的基础上,运用综合指数法计算绿色考核政策的强度,并使用方向距离函数模型对资源型城市绿色经济增长指标进行了测算,进而基于2006—2020年的城市面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型和工具变量模型实证检验了绿色考核政策和资源城市绿色经济增长两者之间的关系。结果表明:①地方政府绿色考核能够显著促进资源型城市绿色经济增长、破解“资源诅咒”,该结论在改变自变量测度、排除竞争性解释等多重情景下依然稳健。②绿色考核主要通过区域绿色技术创新、工业结构清洁化、资源配置优化三条作用途径,实现对绿色经济增长的促进作用。③异质性分析表明,在地方官员晋升激励强、地方国企依赖程度低的地区,绿色考核政策促进资源型城市绿色经济增长的效果更加明显;此外,在成长阶段为成熟型和衰退型、以煤炭和金属类为主要禀赋的资源型城市,绿色考核政策效果更好。区别于以往研究大多围绕资源管理提出的破解策略,该研究揭示了良好的目标考核机制也能有效破解“资源诅咒”。这不仅为资源型城市绿色转型与可持续发展提供了决策依据,也为“资源诅咒”治理文献补充了新的经验证据。

Natural Resources in Economies＇ Status Transition from ＇Periphery＇ to ＇Center ＇

This paper divides the history of global trade since 1000AD into three periods using Rahl Prebisch＇s center-periphery pattern and summarizes the effects of resource trade on periphery economies during each period. However, this paper argues that the resource curse paradox does not justify isolation between developing and developed countries. On the contrary, developing countries should be encouraged to integrate into the existing center-periphery pattern and achieve economic growth through resource trade. This paper supplements the existing literature＇s analysis of resource endowment＇s role in global trade and offers recommendations for resource-rich developing countries to avoid the resource curse, identify a viable path to development, and achieve sustainable development by harnessing natural resources more productively.

基于VAR模型的新疆农业科技资源与农业经济增长的动态关系研究

农业科技资源投入是推进区域农业经济增长的关键。本文基于新疆2001—2020年时间序列数据,采用VAR模型分析新疆农业科技资源各要素与农业经济增长之间的动态关系。结果表明:新疆农业科技资源各要素与农业经济增长之间存在长期稳定均衡关系,而农业科技资源对短期偏离均衡的调整力度为106.93%;农业科研开发活动经费投入与农业经济增长之间存在单向格兰杰因果关系;农业机械总动力与农业技术人员数量之间存在单向格兰杰因果关系;两者之间的互动关系是长期良性状态。通过脉冲响应分析可知,就短期而言,农业科技资源对农业经济增长具有显著影响。总的来说,农业科研开发活动经费投入、农业机械总动力与农业技术人员数量对农业经济增长的促进作用具有不稳定性,四者之间的相互作用较复杂。

旅游业发展对资源型地区经济增长的空间效应

作为国家资源型经济转型发展综合配套改革试验区,山西省是资源型地区的典型代表。以山西省11个地级市的旅游业发展对区域经济增长的空间效应为研究目标,运用空间计量分析技术,利用山西省地级市的地理特征和经济特征组建空间权重矩阵,使用2001—2020年山西省11个地级市的面板数据构建空间计量模型。研究表明,资源型地区的经济增长和旅游业发展均呈现出明显的空间自相关关系,旅游业的发展有效促进了区域经济增长且呈现显著的空间溢出效应,但同时旅游业发展对当地的经济增长也产生了阻碍作用。在资源型地区高质量转型发展的过程中,短期内不宜将旅游业作为替代性支柱产业,但要充分发挥旅游业对区域经济的支撑作用,同时要加强区域合作,构建良好的空间格局,为战略性支柱产业的培育提供条件。

去工业化、经济增长与区域协调发展——基于土地资源错配的视角

针对我国近年来的“去工业化”现象,本文通过280座城市的面板数据,以及城市地形和省级审批建设用地占比构造的工具变量,从土地资源错配视角考察了去工业化对经济增长和区域协调发展的影响。实证结果发现,在当前经济发展阶段工业化对经济增长仍然具有显著的积极影响,过快、过早地去工业化不利于保持经济持续增长和实现区域协调发展,而土地资源在地区间和部门间的双重错配是导致我国出现过早去工业化的重要原因。进一步的分析表明,较高的城镇化水平以及发达的生产性服务业有助于增强工业化对经济增长的推动效应。本文为新时期保持制造业比重基本稳定,推动我国经济持续稳定增长,推进区域协调发展以及促进土地资源优化配置提供了经验证据。

中国省域煤炭产业“资源诅咒”的存在性、挤出效应及破解机制——基于中国十大煤炭富集省份的面板数据检验

采用面板数据模型,对中国煤炭富集省份煤炭产业“资源诅咒”的存在性、挤出效应及破解机制进行检验。研究发现,不论是基于煤炭资源丰裕视角,还是基于煤炭资源依赖视角,“资源诅咒”存在于煤炭富集省份之间,且建立在其挤出效应上;人才引进政策、金融业发展水平、对外开放水平以及技术创新水平的优化或提升对“资源诅咒”都有很强的阻滞效应,尤其是技术创新可以有效地缓解因对煤炭资源过度依赖而造成的经济发展的负面影响。

中国区域经济的“资源诅咒”效应:地区差距的另一种解释

国际上许多研究显示,自然禀赋与一些国家的经济增长之间存在显著的负相关关系,由此形成所谓的“资源诅咒”效应。本文在回顾相关文献的基础上,提出中国区域的经济增长在长周期上也存在着“资源诅咒”效应的假说,并把它看作是地区发展差距的一个重要原因。论文通过构建一个以能源资源为代表的资源丰裕度指数,重点考察我国不同省份之间资源禀赋与经济增长的相互关系。结论表明,1978—2003年我国资源丰裕的地区经济增长速度普遍要慢于资源贫瘠的地区。对此现象,论文用“资源诅咒”的四种传导机制作出解释,同时也为我国资源丰裕地区加快经济发展提供了一些具体的政策建议。

资源诅咒的警示与西部资源开发难题的破解

在世界各国的发展实践和理论探讨中,不断出现资源诅咒的噪音,中心———外围论、贸易条件恶化论、荷兰病及资源诅咒等均揭示出资源禀赋与经济发展之间的悖论。在现有的技术水平、能源价格体制、生态环境管理体制、开发管理体制和经济增长模式得不到较大改进的前提下,我国西部未来经济社会发展要依托能源资源开发走上富裕之路是令人难以置信的。以此现实问题为背景,在分析相关理论的基础上,借鉴发展中国家以及中国山西地区开发经验,讨论了资源诅咒的成因和规避资源劫难的国际经验,并从我国西部资源开发利用的实际出发,就调整资源价格体制、提高技术水平、加快对外开放、完善生态环境管理体制、改革开发管理体制和改变经济增长模式等提出了相应的政策建议。

民族地区能源开发与经济增长效率研究——基于“资源诅咒”假说

"资源诅咒"现象是伴随着能源资源开发带来的新问题。本文基于2000-2012年间的面板数据,运用固定效应变截距模型,探讨民族地区"资源诅咒"效应,讨论"资源诅咒"效应的差异性,分析"资源诅咒"效应的影响因素,并运用层次分析法计算权重,构建经济增长效率模型,探讨"资源诅咒"对经济增长效率的影响。结果表明,民族地区存在"资源诅咒"现象,从单个变量看,能源产业依赖度抑制了云南、广西、贵州、青海、新疆的"资源诅咒"效应,但却加剧了内蒙古和宁夏的"资源诅咒"效应,而能源产业丰裕度和能源开发强度能够缓解青海、宁夏、新疆的"资源诅咒"效应,但加剧了内蒙古、云南、广西、贵州的"资源诅咒"效应;从省际层面看,内蒙古"资源诅咒"效应明显,其他省区表现相对较弱。由面板模型的结果可知,对经济增长起促进作用的变量是技术创新投入、能源开发强度、物质资本投资,对经济增长起阻碍作用的变量是能源产业依赖度和能源产业丰裕度。从各省区煤炭、天然气、石油产量变化情况看,"资源诅咒"现象的来源主要是煤炭,除了煤炭之外,青海对石油、宁夏对天然气、新疆对石油和天然气的依赖度也很大。从2000-2012年间经济增长效率值的动态变化来看,内蒙古、云南、广西、青海、宁夏"资源诅咒"现象明显,时间拐点分别出现在2004年、2006年、2003年、2001年、2003年;新疆的经济增长效率值离散情况虽然比较严重,但总体来看呈现下降趋势;贵州的"资源诅咒"现象前期表现明显,但在2006年以后"资源诅咒"效应得以消除。民族地区要摆脱"资源诅咒"效应应当优化产业结构,降低对煤炭资源的依赖度,由资源依赖型产业向非资源型经济转移,扩大就业及经济增长空间;从技术创新投入入手,加强科技和教育投入,提高技术创新能力,加快能源开发效率。

资源输出型地区的技术创新与经济增长——对“资源诅咒”现象的解释

以Romer的R&D内生增长模型为基本框架,将一个被动接受技术外溢的劳动密集型的自然资源开采部门引入其中,建立了资源输出型地区的4部门内生增长模型,并对其进行了市场竞争动态均衡分析及平衡增长路径上稳态解的比较静态分析,为资源输出型地区面对的"资源诅咒"问题提出了机理解释,即资源开发对技术创新的挤出效应.分析表明,丰裕的自然资源和较高的资源价格可以吸引劳动力去从事缺乏技术含量的简单的初级资源开采活动,使制造业部门和R&D部门的劳动力投入相对减少,从而导致技术创新和长期经济增长的速度减缓.最后,利用我国西部11个省区的面板数据实证分析为理论解释提供了有效的经验支持.

中国油气资源城市“资源诅咒”效应实证

油气资源城市是我国资源型城市的重要组成部分,其高速、稳定的发展对我国全面建成小康社会起着至关重要的作用,开展油气资源城市"资源诅咒"效应研究有助于为其经济发展实践提供科学的理论指导。本文以资源产业依赖度与经济增长的关系为切入点,重新定义"资源诅咒"假说,根据相关文献的回顾评述和历史数据的统计观察,提出油气资源城市"资源诅咒"效应的两个假说,选取1997-2012年10座典型油气资源城市的面板数据作为研究样本,构建经济增长计量模型,并采用多种计量分析和检验方法考察资源产业依赖度与经济增长之间的直接和间接关系,分析"资源诅咒"的传导机制。研究显示:1在模型整体估计中,资源产业依赖度的参数估计值先正后负,说明我国油气资源城市存在"资源诅咒"效应,资源产业依赖对其经济增长存在先促进后抑制的关联关系,即两者之间存在倒U型曲线关系;2在模型分布估计中,物质资本的投入会影响资源产业依赖度对经济增长参数估计的显著性,而个体与私营经济的发展和较高的对外开放程度会使资源产业依赖的抑制作用变得不显著,说明资源产业依赖度对油气资源城市经济增长的抑制效应是间接的、可弱化的,其中物质资本投资是"资源诅咒"效应产生的主要诱因,而个体与私营经济发展和对外开放程度是规避"资源诅咒"的关键因素。根据研究结果,优化配置油气资源城市物质资本投入、完善城市动态混合所有制结构、合理设定城市对外开放程度是破解油气资源城市"资源诅咒"效应的有效方式。

资源禀赋、资源消费与经济增长

本文基于我国1993～2011年省级面板数据,在控制劳动、资本、对外开放、人力资本等因素后,实证检验了资源生产和资源消费对我国经济增长的影响,研究发现:(1)"资源诅咒"命题在我国省际层面显著成立,摆脱"资源陷阱"依然是我国资源丰裕地区亟需解决的关键问题;(2)与资源生产不同的是,资源消费对地区经济增长具有显著的正向影响,资源消费是实现地区经济发展的有利条件,"资源消费诅咒"并不成立;(3)资源生产和资源消费对我国地区经济增长的影响存在异质性,但"资源生产诅咒"和"资源消费福音"命题并不矛盾,资源的跨区域流动是导致资源生产和资源消费对我国地区经济增长影响存在差异的根本原因。

资源禀赋、制度质量与经济增长质量

在经济新常态背景下,基于全国30个省份2000年~2014年的省级面板数据,构建包括经济结构、科技与创新、民生、资源与环境、对外开放5个方面的综合指标体系,测度经济增长质量水平并实证研究资源禀赋和制度质量对我国经济增长质量的影响。结果表明:我国各地区经济增长质量差异明显,总体呈现出东部地区经济增长质量水平最高、中部地区次之、西部地区较差的格局;资源禀赋对于经济增长质量具有"双刃剑"效用,且制度质量是影响其双面效用的关键因素。即当制度"高效"时,资源禀赋的投入有力促进了地区经济增长质量水平的提高;当制度"低效"时,资源禀赋的投入则会成为地区经济发展的阻碍。

资源依赖、地理区位与城市经济增长

本文利用中国城市面板数据,探讨了资源依赖、地理区位与城市经济增长之间的相互关系。研究发现,在控制了地理区位因素之后,资源依赖与城市经济增长之间依然呈现反相关关系,"资源诅咒"在城市层面同样存在。同时,地理区位与自然资源依赖对城市经济增长存在显著的联合影响,距离重要港口城市、中心大城市和三大经济区域中心城市越近,城市经济增长对自然资源的依赖越低,其经济增长越好,优越的地理区位能够减轻资源依赖导致的"资源诅咒"效应。最后,我们的分析也表明,通过降低人力资本投资意愿,阻碍FDI流入,弱化民营经济增长等渠道,资源丰裕导致的资源依赖阻碍了城市的经济增长。