‘Outbreak Gold Standard’Selection to Provide Optimized Threshold for Infectious Diseases Early-alert Based on China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System

The China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System（CIDARS） was successfully implemented and became operational nationwide in 2008. The CIDARS plays an important role in and has been integrated into the routine outbreak monitoring efforts of the Center for Disease Control（CDC） at all levels in China. In the CIDARS, thresholds are determined using the ？Mean＋2SD？ in the early stage which have limitations. This study compared the performance of optimized thresholds defined using the ？Mean ＋2SD？ method to the performance of 5 novel algorithms to select optimal ？Outbreak Gold Standard（OGS）？ and corresponding thresholds for outbreak detection. Data for infectious disease were organized by calendar week and year. The ？Mean＋2 SD？, C1, C2, moving average（MA）, seasonal model（SM）, and cumulative sum（CUSUM） algorithms were applied. Outbreak signals for the predicted value（Px） were calculated using a percentile-based moving window. When the outbreak signals generated by an algorithm were in line with a Px generated outbreak signal for each week, this Px was then defined as the optimized threshold for that algorithm. In this study, six infectious diseases were selected and classified into TYPE A（chickenpox and mumps）, TYPE B（influenza and rubella） and TYPE C [hand foot and mouth disease（HFMD） and scarlet fever]. Optimized thresholds for chickenpox（P_（55））, mumps（P_（50））, influenza（P_（40）, P_（55）, and P_（75））, rubella（P_（45） and P_（75））, HFMD（P_（65） and P_（70））, and scarlet fever（P_（75） and P_（80）） were identified. The C1, C2, CUSUM, SM, and MA algorithms were appropriate for TYPE A. All 6 algorithms were appropriate for TYPE B. C1 and CUSUM algorithms were appropriate for TYPE C. It is critical to incorporate more flexible algorithms as OGS into the CIDRAS and to identify the proper OGS and corresponding recommended optimized threshold by different infectious disease types.

Evaluation of Reported Statistical Inferences

Someone or the other is always pointing to a published study to justify a point of view or the need for a change in what we do or how we live. There are so many such studies, many reported in top-notch journals, reporting results inconsistent across and often inconsistent within. It is in the interest of increasing the credibility of science, and to safeguard the general public living with its overt and covert influence, to filter good science from bad. Some inferences are good, even when counter-intuitive or seemingly inconsistent, and are likely to withstand scrutiny and some others may represent marginal effects in the aggregate not entirely useful for individual choices or decisions, and are often non-reproducible. The New York Times featured an article in August 2018 debunking some of the reported studies supporting testing for Vitamin D deficiencies and the recommendation of large supplemental doses of Vitamin D. Some of these Vitamin D claims, among other claims, were reported as not holding up on replication in controlled trials [1]. We have noted in Ref. [2] that we need to be wary as individuals about reported signals detected in studies using stochastic data, even when these aggregate signals are of a large magnitude. We demonstrated discordance rates of 30% or higher between subject level assessments of effect and the conclusion drawn in the aggregate. Here we will provide a computation of this discordant proportion as well as post-hoc assessments of aggregate inferences, with emphasis on evaluating studies with time-to-event endpoints such as those in cancer trials. Similar evaluations for continuous, binomial data and correlations are also provided. We also discuss the use of response thresholds.

The Real-Time Arc Protection Circuit for ECRH on HL-2A Tokamak

In 2005 year, SWIP carded through a general engineering and physics experiment of ECRH on HL-2A tokamak. The ECRH protection system is studied and set up to insure the security of ECRH system, and the work is normal. The main protection object of all ECRH system is the gyrotron, and the arc protection for it is more important in the protection system.

Gustatory responsiveness in Vespula germanica workers:exploring the interplay between sensory perception and task specialization

Workers'task specialization and division of labor are critical features of social insects'ecological success.It has been proposed that the division of labor relies on response threshold models:individuals varying their sensitivity(and responsiveness)to biologically relevant stimuli and performing a specific task when a stimulus exceeds an internal threshold.In this work,we study carbohydrate and protein responsiveness and their relation to worker task specialization in Vespula germanica,an invasive social wasp.The sucrose and peptone responsiveness of two different subcastes,preforagers and foragers,was determined by stimulating the antenna of the wasps with increasing concentrations of the solution and quantifying whether each concentration elicited a licking response.We studied responsiveness in five different ways:(1)response threshold,(2)concentration 50(concentration to which at least 50%of wasps responded),(3)maximum response,(4)mean scores and(5)median scores.Our results suggest that V germanica foragers are more sensitive to sucrose(lower thresholds)than preforager workers.However,we found no differences for peptone thresholds(i.e.,a protein resource).Nonetheless,this is the first study to investigate response thresholds for protein resources.The intercaste variation in sucrose responsiveness shown in our work contributes to the existing knowledge about response threshold theory as a mechanism for task specialization observed in V germanica.

Flexible foraging decisions made by workers of the social wasp Vespula germanica (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) in response to different resources: influence of ontogenetic shifts and colony feedback

Decisions made by foraging animals conform a complex process based on the integration of information from multiple external environmental stimuli and internal physiological signals,which in turn are modulated by individual experience and a detection threshold of each individual.For social insects in which foraging is limited to given age subcastes,individual foraging decisions may also be affected by ontogenetic shifts and colony requirements.We studied the short-term changes in foraging preferences of the generalist wasp Vespula germanica,focusing on whether the individual response to different resources could be influenced by the ontogenetic shifts and/or by social interaction with nestmates.We carried both laboratory and field experiments to confront worker wasps to a short-term resource switch between either protein or carbohydrate-based foods.We tested the response of(1)Preforager workers(no foraging experience nor interaction with other wasps),(2)Forager workers(experience in foraging and no colony feedback),and(3)Wild forager workers(foraging naturally and exposed to free interactions with nestmates).We evaluated the maxilla-labium extension response(MaLER)for laboratory assays or the landing response for field assays.We observed that for wasps deprived of colony feedback(either preforagers or foragers),the protein-rich foods acceptance threshold increased(and thus a lower level of foraging on that item was observed)if they had foraged on carbohydrates previously,whereas carbohydrates were accepted in all assays.However,wasps immersed in a natural foraging context did accept protein foods regardless of their first foraging experience and reduced the carbohydrates collected when trained on protein foods.We provide evidence that short-term changes in foraging preferences depend on the type of resource foraged and on the social interactions,but not on ontogenetic shifts.