Risk scores for allograft failure: Are they still useful in liver recipients from donation after circulatory death?

BACKGROUND Liver grafts from donation after circulatory death(DCD)are associated with a higher risk of early graft dysfunction,determined by the warm ischemia and cold ischemia times.It is essential to have precise criteria to identify this complication in order to guide therapeutic strategies.AIM To validate different graft and recipient survival scores in patients undergoing liver transplantation(LT)with DCD grafts.METHODS A retrospective and observational unicentric study was conducted on 65 LT patients with grafts obtained from controlled DCD donors from November 2013 to November 2022.The United Kingdom(UK)risk score,early allograft dysfunction(EAD)Olthoff score,and model for early allograft function(MEAF)score were used to evaluate the risk of graft and recipient survival post-transplant.For survival analysis purposes,we used the Kaplan-Meier method,and the differences between subgroups were compared using the log-rank(Mantel-Cox)test.RESULTS Sixty-five patients were included in the study.The UK risk score did not demonstrate predictive capacity for recipient or graft survival.However,in donors aged over 70 years old(18.4%),it significantly predicted graft survival(P<0.05).According to Kaplan-Meier survival curves,graft survival rates at 6 months,2 years,and 5 years in the futility group dramatically decreased to 50%compared to the other groups(log-rank 8.806,P<0.05).The EAD Olthoff and MEAF scores did not demonstrate predictive capacity for recipient or graft survival.Based on Kaplan-Meier survival curves,patients with a MEAF score≥7 had a lower graft survival rate at 6 months,2 years,and 5 years compared to patients with a lower MEAF score(log-rank 4.667,P<0.05).CONCLUSION In our series,both UK DCD risk score and MEAF score showed predictive capability for graft survival.

Radiomics-based predictive risk score: A scoring system for preoperatively predicting risk of lymph node metastasis in patients with resectable non-small cell lung cancer

Objective: To develop and validate a radiomics-based predictive risk score(RPRS) for preoperative prediction of lymph node(LN) metastasis in patients with resectable non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC).Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 717 who underwent surgical resection for primary NSCLC with systematic mediastinal lymphadenectomy from October 2007 to July 2016. By using the method of radiomics analysis, 591 computed tomography(CT)-based radiomics features were extracted, and the radiomics-based classifier was constructed. Then, using multivariable logistic regression analysis, a weighted score RPRS was derived to identify LN metastasis. Apparent prediction performance of RPRS was assessed with its calibration,discrimination, and clinical usefulness.Results: The radiomics-based classifier was constructed, which consisted of 13 selected radiomics features.Multivariate models demonstrated that radiomics-based classifier, age group, tumor diameter, tumor location, and CT-based LN status were independent predictors. When we assigned the corresponding score to each variable,patients with RPRSs of 0-3, 4-5, 6, 7-8, and 9 had distinctly very low(0%-20%), low(21%-40%), intermediate(41%-60%), high(61%-80%), and very high(81%-100%) risks of LN involvement, respectively. The developed RPRS showed good discrimination and satisfactory calibration (C-index: 0.785, 95% confidence interval(95% CI):0.780-0.790)Additionally, RPRS outperformed the clinicopathologic-based characteristics model with net reclassification index(NRI) of 0.711(95% CI: 0.555-0.867).Conclusions: The novel clinical scoring system developed as RPRS can serve as an easy-to-use tool to facilitate the preoperatively individualized prediction of LN metastasis in patients with resectable NSCLC. This stratification of patients according to their LN status may provide a basis for individualized treatment.

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk scores： Who, when andwhy？

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding(UGIB) remains a significant cause of hospital admission. In order to stratify patients according to the risk of the compli-cations, such as rebleeding or death, and to predict the need of clinical intervention, several risk scores have been proposed and their use consistently recommended by international guidelines. The use of risk scoring systems in early assessment of patients suffering from UGIB may be useful to distinguish high-risks patients, who may need clinical intervention and hospitalization, from low risk patients with a lower chance of developing complications, in which management as outpatients can be considered. Although several scores have been published and validated for predicting different outcomes, the most frequently cited ones are the Rockall score and the Glasgow Blatchford score(GBS). While Rockall score, which incorporates clinical and endoscopic variables, has been validated to predict mortality, the GBS, which is based on clinical and laboratorial parameters, has been studied to predict the need of clinical intervention. Despite the advantages previously reported, their use in clinical decisions is still limited. This review describes the different risk scores used in the UGIB setting, highlights the most important research, explains why and when their use may be helpful, reflects on the problems that remain unresolved and guides future research with practical impact.

Score model for predicting acute-on-chronic liver failure risk in chronic hepatitis B

AIM: To establish a clinical scoring model to predict risk of acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF) in chronic hepatitis B(CHB) patients.METHODS: This was a retrospective study of 1457 patients hospitalized for CHB between October 2008 and October 2013 at the Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, China. The patients were divided into two groups: severe acute exacerbation(SAE) group(n = 382) and non-SAE group(n = 1075). The SAE group was classified as the high-risk group based on the higher incidence of ACLF in this group than in the non-SAE group(13.6% vs 0.4%). Two-thirds of SAE patients were randomly assigned to risk-model derivation and the other one-third to model validation. Univariate risk factors associated with the outcome were entered into a multivariate logistic regression model for screening independent risk factors. Each variable was assigned an integer value based on the regression coefficients, and the final score was the sum of these values in the derivation set. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS: The risk prediction scoring model includedthe following four factors: age ≥ 40 years, total bilirubin ≥ 171 μmol/L, prothrombin activity 40%-60%, and hepatitis B virus DNA > 107 copies/m L. The sum risk score ranged from 0 to 7; 0-3 identified patients with lower risk of ACLF, whereas 4-7 identified patients with higher risk. The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed the cumulative risk for ACLF and ACLF-related death in the two risk groups(0-3 and 4-7 scores) of the primary cohort over 56 d, and log-rank test revealed a significant difference(2.0% vs 33.8% and 0.8% vs 9.4%, respectively; both P < 0.0001). In the derivation and validation data sets, the model had good discrimination(C index = 0.857, 95% confidence interval: 0.800-0.913 and C index = 0.889, 95% confidence interval: 0.820-0.957, respectively) and calibration demonstrated by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test(χ2 = 4.516, P = 0.808 and χ2 = 1.959, P = 0.923, respectively).CONCLUSION: Using the scoring model, clinicians can easily identify patients(total score ≥ 4) at high risk of ACLF and ACLF-related death early during SAE.

Predicting mortality in patients with acute heart failure:Role of risk scores

Acute heart failure is a leading cause of hospitalization and death,and it is an increasing burden on health care systems. The correct risk stratification of patients could improve clinical outcome and resources allocation,avoiding the overtreatment of low-risk subjects or the early,inappropriate discharge of high-risk patients. Many clinical scores have been derived and validated for in-hospital and post-discharge survival; predictive models include demographic,clinical,hemodynamic and laboratory variables. Data sets are derived from public registries,clinical trials,and retrospective data. Most models show a good capacity to discriminate patients who reach major clinical end-points,with C-indices generally higher than 0.70,but their applicability in realworld populations has been seldom evaluated. No study has evaluated if the use of risk score-based stratification might improve patient outcome. Some variables(age,blood pressure,sodium concentration,renal function) recur in most scores and should always be considered when evaluating the risk of an individual patient hospitalized for acute heart failure. Future studies will evaluate the emerging role of plasma biomarkers.

A Risk Score System for Myopia Symptom Warning

Myopia is the leading cause of visual impairments worldwide. Some studies revealed that visual experience in early life affected the final myopia, indicating that environmental factors play an impellent role in the development of myopia. However, risk factors of myopia are still not identified among adolescents in China. A total of 4104 cases of myopia symptom and 3306 emmetropia controls were selected from students in primary and middle schools in Wuhan in 2008. We identified the risk factors associated with myopia symptom by multivariate logistic regression in this cross-sectional study and constructed a risk score system for myopia symptom. The value of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was 0.735. Furthermore, we followed up 93 students aged 7-9 years for one year and calculated the total points using the score system. We found no significant difference between the final myopia symptom and the results predicted by the total points by pair chi-square test (P>0.05). The score system had a modest ability to estimate the risk factors of myopia symptom. Using this score system, we could identify the students who are at risk of myopia symptom in the future according to their behaviors and environmental factors, and take measures to slow the progress of myopia symptom.

Evaluation of the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus in a Colombian population: A longitudinal observational study

AIM: To assess the performance of the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score(FINDRISC) questionnaire for detecting and predicting type 2 diabetes mellitus(DM2) in a Colombian population.METHODS: This is a longitudinal observational study conducted in Floridablanca, Colombia. Adult subjects(age ≥ 35 years) without known diabetes, were included. A modified version of FINDRISC was completed, and the glycemia values from all the subjects were collected from the hospital's database. Firstly, a cross-sectional analysis was performed and then, the subsample of prediabetic participants was followed for diabetes incidence. RESULTS: A total of 772 subjects were suitable for the study. The overall prevalence of undiagnosed DM2 was 2.59%, and the incidence of DM2 among the prediabetic participants was 7.5 per 100 person-years after a total of 265257 person-years follow-up. The FINDRISC at baseline was significantly associated with undiagnosed and incident DM2. The area under receiver operating characteristics curve of the FINDRISC score for detecting undiagnosed DM2 in both men and women was 0.7477 and 0.7175, respectively; and for predicting the incidence of DM2 among prediabetics was 71.99% in men and 67.74% in women. CONCLUSION: The FINDRISC questionnaire is a useful screening tool to identify cross-sectionally unknown DM2 and to predict the incidence of DM2 among prediabetics in the Colombian population.

Construction of a risk score prognosis model based on hepatocellular carcinoma microenvironment

BACKGROUND Hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)is a common cancer with a poor prognosis.Previous studies revealed that the tumor microenvironment(TME)plays an important role in HCC progression,recurrence,and metastasis,leading to poor prognosis.However,the effects of genes involved in TME on the prognosis of HCC patients remain unclear.Here,we investigated the HCC microenvironment to identify prognostic genes for HCC.AIM To identify a robust gene signature associated with the HCC microenvironment to improve prognosis prediction of HCC.METHODS We computed the immune/stromal scores of HCC patients obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas based on the ESTIMATE algorithm.Additionally,a risk score model was established based on Differentially Expressed Genes(DEGs)between high and lowimmune/stromal score patients.RESULTS The risk score model consisting of eight genes was constructed and validated in the HCC patients.The patients were divided into high-or low-risk groups.The genes(Disabled homolog 2,Musculin,C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 8,Galectin 3,B-cell-activating transcription factor,Killer cell lectin like receptor B1,Endoglin and adenomatosis polyposis coli tumor suppressor)involved in our risk score model were considered to be potential immunotherapy targets,and they may provide better performance in combination.Functional enrichment analysis showed that the immune response and T cell receptor signaling pathway represented the major function and pathway,respectively,related to the immune-related genes in the DEGs between high-and low-risk groups.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis confirmed the good potency of the risk score prognostic model.Moreover,we validated the risk score model using the International Cancer Genome Consortium and the Gene Expression Omnibus database.A nomogram was established to predict the overall survival of HCC patients.CONCLUSION The risk score model and the nomogram will benefit HCC patients through personalized immunotherapy.

Nomograms and risk score models for predicting survival in rectal cancer patients with neoadjuvant therapy

BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer is a common digestive cancer worldwide.As a comprehensive treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer(LARC),neoadjuvant therapy(NT)has been increasingly used as the standard treatment for clinical stage II/III rectal cancer.However,few patients achieve a complete pathological response,and most patients require surgical resection and adjuvant therapy.Therefore,identifying risk factors and developing accurate models to predict the prognosis of LARC patients are of great clinical significance.AIM To establish effective prognostic nomograms and risk score prediction models to predict overall survival(OS)and disease-free survival(DFS)for LARC treated with NT.METHODS Nomograms and risk factor score prediction models were based on patients who received NT at the Cancer Hospital from 2015 to 2017.The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model were utilized to screen for prognostic risk factors,which were validated by the Cox regression method.Assessment of the performance of the two prediction models was conducted using receiver operating characteristic curves,and that of the two nomograms was conducted by calculating the concordance index(C-index)and calibration curves.The results were validated in a cohort of 65 patients from 2015 to 2017.RESULTS Seven features were significantly associated with OS and were included in the OS prediction nomogram and prediction model:Vascular_tumors_bolt,cancer nodules,yN,body mass index,matchmouth distance from the edge,nerve aggression and postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen.The nomogram showed good predictive value for OS,with a C-index of 0.91(95%CI:0.85,0.97)and good calibration.In the validation cohort,the C-index was 0.69(95%CI:0.53,0.84).The risk factor prediction model showed good predictive value.The areas under the curve for 3-and 5-year survival were 0.811 and 0.782.The nomogram for predicting DFS included ypTNM and nerve aggression and showed good calibration and a C-index of 0.77(95%CI:0.69,0.85).In the validation cohort,the C-index was 0.71(95%CI:0.61,0.81).The prediction model for DFS also had good predictive value,with an AUC for 3-year survival of 0.784 and an AUC for 5-year survival of 0.754.CONCLUSION We established accurate nomograms and prediction models for predicting OS and DFS in patients with LARC after undergoing NT.

Antithrombotic treatment tailoring and risk score evaluation in elderly patients diagnosed with an acute coronary syndrome

Age is an important prognostic factor in the outcome of acute coronary syndromes （ACS）. A substantial percentage of patients who ex- perience ACS is more than 75 years old, and they represent the fastest-growing segment of the population treated in this setting. These pa- tients present different patterns of responses to pharmacotherapy, namely, a higher ischemic and bleeding risk than do patients under 75 years of age. Our aim was to identify whether the currently available ACS ischemic and bleeding risk scores, which has been validated for the general population, may also apply to the elderly population. The second aim was to determine whether the elderly benefit more from a spe- cific pharmacological regimen, keeping in mind the numerous molecules of antiplatelet and antithrombotic drugs, all validated in the general population. We concluded that the GRACE （Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events） risk score has been extensively validated in the elderly. However, the CRUSADE （Can Rapid risk stratification of Unstable angina patients Suppress ADverse outcomes with Early imple- mentation of the ACC/AHA Guidelines） bleeding score has a moderate correlation with outcomes in the elderly. Until now, there have not been head-to-head scores that quantify the ischemic versus hemorrhagic risk or scores that use the same end point and timeline （e.g., ischemic death rate versus bleeding death rate at one month）. We also recommend that the frailty score be considered or integrated into the current existing scores to better quantify the overall patient risk. With regard to medical treatment, based on the subgroup analysis, we identified the drugs that have the least adverse effects in the elderly while maintaining optimal efficacy.

Serum microRNA-204 levels are associated with long-term cardiovascular disease risk based on the Framingham risk score in patients with type 2 diabetes: results from an observational study

Background Previous studies have demonstrated that micro RNA-204(mi R-204) is involved in atherosclerosis and vascular calcification. However, the value of mi R-204 as the predictive biomarker for cardiovascular disease(CVD) remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate the association between the circulating mi R-204 level and ten-year CVD risk based on the Framingham risk score(FRS). Methods In this retrospective study, we enrolled 194 consecutive patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM) without CVD in Beijing Anzhen Hospital between January 2015 and September 2016. We used the FRS to evaluate the risk of CVD for each patient. Circulating mi R-204 levels were measured by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. Results Circulating mi R-204 levels were significantly lower in the group of patients(0.49 ± 0.13) at high risk of CVD(FRS > 20%) than in the low(FRS < 10%) and intermediate(FRS: 10%–20%) risk groups(0.87 ± 0.19 and 0.75 ± 0.25, respectively;P < 0.001). FRS was negatively correlated with mi R-204 levels(r =-0.421, P < 0.001). According to multivariate logistic analyses, reduced mi R-204 level was independently associated with an increased risk of CVD after adjusting for conventional risk factors(OR = 0.876, 95% CI: 0.807–0.950, P = 0.001). Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the circulating mi R-204 level can predict the high risk of CVD with higher specificity than the traditional risk factor of high systolic blood pressure or the protective factor of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Conclusions Our study demonstrated that patients with lower circulating mi R-204 levels were at high risk for CVD. After adjustment for potential confounders, mi R-204 was independently associated with CVD in patients with T2DM.

Validation of the albumin-bilirubin score for identifying decompensation risk in patients with compensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND The albumin-bilirubin(ALBI)score is an index of liver function recently developed to assess prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).It can detect small changes in liver dysfunction and has been successfully applied to the prediction of survival in patients with non-malignant liver diseases of various etiologies.AIM To investigate the ALBI score for identifying decompensation risk at the 3-year follow-up in patients with compensated cirrhosis.METHODS One-hundred and twenty-three patients with compensated cirrhosis without HCC in King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital diagnosed by imaging were retrospectively enrolled from January 2016 to December 2020.A total of 113 patients(91.9%)had Child A cirrhosis with a median model for end-stage liver disease(MELD)score of less than 9.Baseline clinical and laboratory variables and decompensation events were collected.The ALBI score was calculated and validated to classify decompensation risk into low-,middle-,and high-risk groups using three ALBI grade ranges(ALBI grade 1:≤-2.60;grade 2:>-2.60 but≤-1.39;grade 3:>-1.39).Decompensation events were defined as ascites development,variceal bleeding,or grade 3 or 4 hepatic encephalopathy.RESULTS Among 123 cirrhotic patients enrolled,13.8%(n=17)developed decompensating events at a median time of 25[95%confidence interval(CI):17-31]mo.Median baseline ALBI score in compensated cirrhosis was significantly lower than that of patients who developed decompensation events[-2.768(-2.956 to-2.453)vs-2.007(-2.533 to-1.537);P=0.01].Analysis of decompensation risk at 3 years showed that ALBI score had a time-dependent area under the curve(tAUC)of 0.86(95%CI:0.78-0.92),which was significantly better than that of ALBI-Fibrosis-4(ALBI-FIB4)score(tAUC=0.77),MELD score(tAUC=0.66),Child-Pugh score(tAUC=0.65),and FIB-4 score(tAUC=0.48)(P<0.05 for all).The 3-year cumulative incidence of decompensation was 3.1%,22.6%,and 50%in the low-,middle-,and high-risk groups,respectively(P<0.001).The odds ratio for decompensation in patients of the high-risk group was 23.33(95%CI:3.88-140.12,P=0.001).CONCLUSION The ALBI score accurately identifies decompensation risk at the 3-year follow-up in patients with compensated cirrhosis.Those cirrhotic patients with a high-risk grade of ALBI score showed a 23 times greater odds of decompensation.

A risk prediction score model for predicting occurrence of post-PCI vasovagal reflex syndrome： a single center study in Chinese population

Background The vasovagal reflex syndrome （VVRS） is common in the patiems undergoing percutaneous coronary intervemion （PCI） However, prediction and prevention of the risk for the VVRS have not been completely fulfilled. This study was conducted to develop a Risk Prediction Score Model to identify the determinants of VVRS in a large Chinese population cohort receiving PCI. Methods From the hos- pital electronic medical database, we idemified 3550 patients who received PCI （78.0% males, mean age 60 years） in Chinese PLA General Hospital from January 1, 2000 to August 30, 2016. The multivariate analysis and receiver operating characteristic 01OC） analysis were performed. Results The adverse events of VVRS in the patients were significantly increased after PCI procedure than before the operation （all P 〈 0.001）. The rate of VVRS [95% confidence interval （CI）] in patients receiving PCI was 4.5% （4.1%-5.6%）. Compared to the patients suffering no VVRS, incidence of VVRS involved the following factors, namely female gender, primary PCI, hypertension, over two stems im- plantation in the left anterior descending （LAD）, and the femoral puncture site. The multivariate analysis suggested that they were independ- ent risk factors for predicting the incidence of VVRS （all P 〈 0.001）. We developed a risk prediction score model for VVRS. ROC analysis showed that the risk prediction score model was effectively predictive of the incidence of VVRS in patients receiving PCI （c-statistic 0.76, 95% CI： 0.72-0.79, P 〈 0.001）. There were decreased evems of VVRS in the patients receiving PCI whose diastolic blood pressure dropped by more than 30 mmHg and heart rate reduced by 10 times per minute （AUC： 0.84, 95% CI： 0.81-0.87, P 〈 0.001）. Conclusion The risk prediction score is quite efficient in predicting the incidence of VVRS in patients receiving PCI. In which, the following factors may be in- volved, the femoral puncture site, female gender, hypertension, primary PCI, and over 2 stents implanted in LAD.

Sarcopenia is associated with Framingham risk score in the Korean population： Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey （KNHANES） 2010-2011

Background Sarcopenia is a risk factor for metabolic disorders and cardiovascular disease, but the association between sarcopenia and cardiovascular risk factors according to age and obesity status in the general population remains unknown. We thus investigated these associations in the Korean population. Methods We included 8,958 and 8,518 subjects from the fifth Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey （KNHANES） （from 2010 and 2011, respectively）. The study was restricted to participants 〉 20 years old who had completed the health examination survey, including whole body dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans. After exclusion, 7,366 subjects （3,188 men, 4,178 women） were included in our final analysis. Age was categorized according to three age groups （20-39, 40-59, mad 〉 60 years）, and subjects were catego- rized according to their sarcopenic and obesity status. Cardiovascular risk was assessed with Framingham risk score （FRS）. Results The sarco- penic obese group had a higher FRS than the non-sarcopenic obese group, which had a higher FRS than the non-sarcopenic non-obese group. Age-wise, the 20-39 year-old group showed a non-significant association between sarcopenia and FRS. In the 40-59 year-old group, regardless of obesity status, sarcopenic subjects had a higher FRS than non-sarcopenic subjects. In the 〉 60 year-old group, sarcopenic subjects had a higher FRS than non-sarcopenic subjects for the non-obese group. Conclusions Sarcopenia was associated with cardiovascular disease and may be an early predictor of its susceptibility in both elderly and middle-aged subjects. Thus, management of sarcopenia is necessary to prevent cardiovascu- lar disease.

Age,blood tests and comorbidities and AIMS65 risk scores outperform Glasgow-Blatchford and pre-endoscopic Rockall score in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

BACKGROUND Upper gastrointestinal(GI)bleeding is a life-threatening condition with high mortality rates.AIM To compare the performance of pre-endoscopic risk scores in predicting the following primary outcomes:In-hospital mortality,intervention(endoscopic or surgical)and length of admission(≥7 d).METHODS We performed a retrospective analysis of 363 patients presenting with upper GI bleeding from December 2020 to January 2021.We calculated and compared the area under the receiver operating characteristics curves(AUROCs)of Glasgow-Blatchford score(GBS),pre-endoscopic Rockall score(PERS),albumin,international normalized ratio,altered mental status,systolic blood pressure,age older than 65(AIMS65)and age,blood tests and comorbidities(ABC),including their optimal cut-off in variceal and non-variceal upper GI bleeding cohorts.We subsequently analyzed through a logistic binary regression model,if addition of lactate increased the score performance.RESULTS All scores had discriminative ability in predicting in-hospital mortality irrespective of study group.AIMS65 score had the best performance in the variceal bleeding group(AUROC=0.772;P<0.001),and ABC score(AUROC=0.775;P<0.001)in the non-variceal bleeding group.However,ABC score,at a cut-off value of 5.5,was the best predictor(AUROC=0.770,P=0.001)of inhospital mortality in both populations.PERS score was a good predictor for endoscopic treatment(AUC=0.604;P=0.046)in the variceal population,while GBS score,(AUROC=0.722;P=0.024),outperformed the other scores in predicting surgical intervention.Addition of lactate to AIMS65 score,increases by 5-fold the probability of in-hospital mortality(P<0.05)and by 12-fold if added to GBS score(P<0.003).No score proved to be a good predictor for length of admission.CONCLUSION ABC score is the most accurate in predicting in-hospital mortality in both mixed and non-variceal bleeding population.PERS and GBS should be used to determine need for endoscopic and surgical intervention,respectively.Lactate can be used as an additional tool to risk scores for predicting inhospital mortality.

Correlation between SYNTAX Score and Pattern of Risk Factors in Patients Referred for Coronary Angiography in Cardiology Department, Menoufia University

Objectives: The role of SYNTAX (SX) score in assessing the complexity of coronary artery disease (CAD) is well established. In this study we investigate the relationship between conventional risk factors of CAD with its complexity using SX score. Methods: The study consisted of 52 patients with CAD who were admitted to Cardiology Department—Menoufia University Hospitals for elective coronary angiography. The overall SX score was calculated prospectively using the SX score algorithm. Then comparison was done between populations with and without each risk factor. Results: There was a statistically significant correlation between age, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia and smoking with SX score results (p 0.05). In a multivariate regression analysis, including conventional risk factors of CAD as independent covariates, it revealed that aging, having diabetes mellitus and smoking were identified as significant independent risk factors for CAD complexity. Conclusion: Advanced age, having diabetes mellitus and cigarette smoking are considered to be independent risk factors for the complexity of CAD. Therefore, when these factors present, we expect that the SX score of the patient to be high indicating a complex CAD.

A predictive score for retinopathy of prematurity by using clinical risk factors and serum insulin-like growth factor-1 levels

AIM：To detect the impact of insulin-like growth factor-1（IGF-1）and other risk factors for the early prediction of retinopathy of prematurity（ROP）and to establish a scoring system for ROP prediction by using clinical criteria and serum IGF-1 levels.METHODS：The study was conducted with 127 preterm infants.IGF-1 levels in the 1st day of life,1st,2nd,3rd and4th week of life was analyzed.The score was established after logistic regression analysis,considering the impact of each variable on the occurrences of any stage ROP.A validation cohort containing 107 preterm infants was included in the study and the predictive ability of ROP score was calculated.RESULTS：Birth weights（BW）,gestational weeks（GW）and the prevalence of breast milk consumption were lower,respiratory distress syndrome（RDS）,bronchopulmonarydysplasia（BPD）and necrotizing enterocolitis（NEC）were more frequent,the duration of mechanical ventilation and oxygen supplementation was longer in patients with ROP（P〈0.05）.Initial serum IGF-1 levels tended to be lower in newborns who developed ROP.Logistic regression analysis revealed that low BW（〈1250 g）,presence of intraventricular hemorrhage（IVH）and formula feeding increased the risk of ROP.Afterwards,the scoring system was validated on 107 infants.The negative predictive values of a score less than 4 were 84.3%,74.7%and 79.8%while positive predictive values were 76.3%,65.5%and71.6%respectively.CONCLUSION：In addition to BW〈1250 g and IVH,formula consumption was detected as a risk factor for the development of ROP.Breastfeeding is important for prevention of ROP in preterm infants.

Single-nucleotide polymorphisms based genetic risk score in the prediction of pancreatic cancer risk

BACKGROUND Disease-related single nucleotide polymorphisms(SNPs)based genetic risk score(GRS)has been proven to provide independent inherited risk other than family history in multiple cancer types.AIM To evaluate the potential of GRS in the prediction of pancreatic cancer risk.METHODS In this case-control study(254 cases and 1200 controls),we aimed to evaluate the association between GRS and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma(PDAC)risk in the Chinese population.The GRS was calculated based on the genotype information of 18 PDAC-related SNPs for each study subject(personal genotyping information of the SNPs)and was weighted by external odd ratios(ORs).RESULTS GRS was significantly different in cases and controls(1.96±3.84 in PDACs vs 1.09±0.94 in controls,P<0.0001).Logistic regression revealed GRS to be associated with PDAC risk[OR=1.23,95%confidence interval(CI):1.13-1.34,P<0.0001].GRS remained significantly associated with PDAC(OR=1.36,95%CI:1.06-1.74,P=0.015)after adjusting for age and sex.Further analysis revealed an association of increased risk for PDAC with higher GRS.Compared with low GRS(<1.0),subjects with high GRS(2.0)were 99%more likely to have PDAC(OR:1.99,95%CI:1.30-3.04,P=0.002).Participants with intermediate GRS(1.0-1.9)were 39%more likely to have PDAC(OR:1.39,95%CI:1.03-1.84,P=0.031).A positive trend was observed(P trend=0.0006).CONCLUSION GRS based on PDAC-associated SNPs could provide independent information on PDAC risk and may be used to predict a high risk PDAC population.

Promoting genetics in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: Combined risk score through polymorphisms and clinical variables

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD) has a prevalence of approximately 30% in western countries, and is emerging as the first cause of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC). Therefore, risk stratification emerges as fundamental in order to optimize human and economic resources, and genetics displays intrinsic characteristics suitable to fulfill this task. According to the available data, heritability estimates for hepatic fat content range from 20% to 70%, and an almost 80% of shared heritability has been found between hepatic fat content and fibrosis. The rs738409 single nucleotide polymorphism(SNP) in patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3 gene and the rs58542926 SNP in transmembrane 6 superfamily member 2 gene have been robustly associated with NAFLD and with its progression, but promising results have been obtained with many other SNPs. Moreover, there has been proof of the additive role of the different SNPs in determining liver damage, and there have been preliminary experiences in which risk scores created through a few genetic variants, alone or in combination with clinical variables, were associated with a strongly potentiated risk of NAFLD, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis(NASH), NASH fibrosis or NAFLD-HCC. However, to date, clinical translation of genetics in the field of NAFLD has been poor or absent. Fortunately, the research we have done seems to have placed us on the right path: We should rely on longitudinal rather than on cross-sectional studies; we should focus on relevant outcomes rather than on simple liver fat accumulation; and we should put together the genetic and clinical information. The hope is that combined genetic/clinical scores, derived from longitudinal studies and built on a few strong genetic variants and relevant clinical variables, will reach a significant predictive power, such as to have clinical utility for risk stratification at the single patient level and even to esteem the impact of intervention on the risk of disease-related outcomes. Well-structured future studies would demonstrate if this vision can become a reality.

Assessment of cardiovascular risk in diabetes:Risk scores and provocative testing

Cardiovascular disease(CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality among patients with diabetes mellitus,who have a risk of cardiovascular mortality two to four times that of people without diabetes.An individualised approach to cardiovascular risk estimation and management is needed.Over the past decades,many risk scores have been developed to predict CVD.However,few have been externally validated in a diabetic population and limited studies have examined the impact of applying a prediction model in clinical practice.Currently,guidelines are focused on testing for CVD in symptomatic patients.Atypical symptoms or silent ischemia are more common in the diabetic population,and with additional markers of vascular disease such as erectile dysfunction and autonomic neuropathy,these guidelines can be difficult to interpret.We propose an algorithm incorporating cardiovascular risk scores in combination with typical and atypical signs and symptoms to alert clinicians to consider further investigation with provocative testing.The modalities for investigation of CVD are discussed.