The technological revolution has spawned a new generation of industrial systems,but it has also put forward higher requirements for safety management accuracy,timeliness,and systematicness.Risk assessment needs to evo...The technological revolution has spawned a new generation of industrial systems,but it has also put forward higher requirements for safety management accuracy,timeliness,and systematicness.Risk assessment needs to evolve to address the existing and future challenges by considering the new demands and advancements in safety management.The study aims to propose a systematic and comprehensive risk assessment method to meet the needs of process system safety management.The methodology first incorporates possibility,severity,and dynamicity(PSD)to structure the“51X”evaluation indicator system,including the inherent,management,and disturbance risk factors.Subsequently,the four-tier(risk point-unit-enterprise-region)risk assessment(RA)mathematical model has been established to consider supervision needs.And in conclusion,the application of the PSD-RA method in ammonia refrigeration workshop cases and safety risk monitoring systems is presented to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed PSD-RA method in safety management.The findings show that the PSD-RA method can be well integrated with the needs of safety work informatization,which is also helpful for implementing the enterprise's safety work responsibility and the government's safety supervision responsibility.展开更多
Objective： To evaluate the population attributable risks （PARs） between cigarette smoking and deaths of all causes, all cancers, lung cancer and other chronic diseases in urban Shanghai. Methods： In total, 61,480 ...Objective： To evaluate the population attributable risks （PARs） between cigarette smoking and deaths of all causes, all cancers, lung cancer and other chronic diseases in urban Shanghai. Methods： In total, 61,480 men aged 40-74 years from 2002 to 2006 and 74,941 women aged 40-70 years from 1997 to 2000 were recruited to undergo baseline surveys in urban Shanghai, with response rates of 74.0% and 92.3%, respectively. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate relative risks （RRs） and 95% confidence intervals （95% CIs） of deaths associated with cigarette smoking. PARs and 95 % CIs for deaths were estimated from smoking exposure rates and the estimated RRs. Results： Cigarette smoking was responsible for 23.9% （95% CI： 19.4-28.3%） and 2.4% （95% Ch 1.6- 3.2%） of all deaths in men and women, respectively, in our study population. Respiratory disease had the highest PAR in men [37.5% （95% CI： 21.5-51.6%）], followed by cancer [31.3% （95% Ch 24.6-37.7%）] and cardiovascular disease （CVD） [24.1% （95% CI： 16.7-31.2%）]. While the top three PARs were 12.7% （95% CI： 6.1-19.3%）, 4.0% （95% CI： 2.4-5.6%）, and 1.1% （95% CI： 0.0-2.3%）, for respiratory disease, CVD, and cancer, respectively in women. For deaths of lung cancer, the PAR of smoking was 68.4% （95% CI： 58.2- 76.5%） in men. Conclusions： In urban Shanghai, 23.9% and 2.4% of all deaths in men and women could have been prevented if no people had smoked in the area. Effective control programs against cigarette smoking should be strongly advocated to reduce the increasing smoking-related death burden.展开更多
Due to the complexity and variability of carbonate formation leakage zones, lost circulation prediction and control is one of the major challenges of carbonate drilling. It raises well-control risks and production exp...Due to the complexity and variability of carbonate formation leakage zones, lost circulation prediction and control is one of the major challenges of carbonate drilling. It raises well-control risks and production expenses. This research utilizes the H oilfield as an example, employs seismic features to analyze mud loss prediction, and produces a complete set of pre-drilling mud loss prediction solutions. Firstly, 16seismic attributes are calculated based on the post-stack seismic data, and the mud loss rate per unit footage is specified. The sample set is constructed by extracting each attribute from the seismic trace surrounding 15 typical wells, with a ratio of 8:2 between the training set and the test set. With the calibration results for mud loss rate per unit footage, the nonlinear mapping relationship between seismic attributes and mud loss rate per unit size is established using the mixed density network model.Then, the influence of the number of sub-Gausses and the uncertainty coefficient on the model's prediction is evaluated. Finally, the model is used in conjunction with downhole drilling conditions to assess the risk of mud loss in various layers and along the wellbore trajectory. The study demonstrates that the mean relative errors of the model for training data and test data are 6.9% and 7.5%, respectively, and that R2is 90% and 88%, respectively, for training data and test data. The accuracy and efficacy of mud loss prediction may be greatly enhanced by combining 16 seismic attributes with the mud loss rate per unit footage and applying machine learning methods. The mud loss prediction model based on the MDN model can not only predict the mud loss rate but also objectively evaluate the prediction based on the quality of the data and the model.展开更多
Effect sizes are estimated from several study designs when the subjects are individually sampled. When the samples are the aggregate cluster of individuals, the within cluster correlation must be accounted for to cons...Effect sizes are estimated from several study designs when the subjects are individually sampled. When the samples are the aggregate cluster of individuals, the within cluster correlation must be accounted for to construct correct confidence intervals, and to conduct valid statistical inference. The purpose of this article is to propose and evaluate statistical procedures for the estimation of the variance of the estimated attributable risk in parallel groups of clusters, and in a design dividing each of k clusters into two segments creating multiple sub-clusters. The estimated variance is the first order approximation and is obtained by the delta method. We apply the methodology and propose a Wald type confidence interval on the difference between two correlated attributable risks. We also construct a test on the hypothesis of equality of two correlated attributable risks. We evaluate the power of the proposed test via Monte-Carlo simulations.展开更多
Tunnel water inrush is one of the common geological disasters in the underground engineering construction.In order to effectively evaluate and control the occurrence of water inrush,the risk assessment model of tunnel...Tunnel water inrush is one of the common geological disasters in the underground engineering construction.In order to effectively evaluate and control the occurrence of water inrush,the risk assessment model of tunnel water inrush was proposed based on improved attribute mathematical theory.The trigonometric functions were adopted to optimize the attribute mathematical theory,avoiding the influence of mutation points and linear variation zones in traditional linear measurement functions on the accuracy of the model.Based on comprehensive analysis of various factors,five parameters were selected as the evaluation indicators for the model,including tunnel head pressure,permeability coefficient of surrounding rock,crushing degree of surrounding rock,relative angle of joint plane and tunnel section size,under the principle of dimension rationality,independence,directness and quantification.The indicator classifications were determined.The links among measured data were analyzed in detail,and the objective weight of each indicator was determined by using similar weight method.Thereby the tunnel water inrush risk assessment model is established and applied in four target segments of two different tunnels in engineering.The evaluation results and the actual excavation data agree well,which indicates that the model is of high credibility and feasibility.展开更多
Water inrush is one of the most serious geological hazards in underground engineering construction.In order to effectively prevent and control the occurrence of water inrush,a new attribute interval recognition theory...Water inrush is one of the most serious geological hazards in underground engineering construction.In order to effectively prevent and control the occurrence of water inrush,a new attribute interval recognition theory and method is proposed to systematically evaluate the risk of water inrush in karst tunnels.Its innovation mainly includes that the value of evaluation index is an interval rather than a certain value;the single-index attribute evaluation model is improved non-linearly based on the idea of normal distribution;the synthetic attribute interval analysis method based on improved intuitionistic fuzzy theory is proposed.The TFN-AHP method is proposed to analyze the weight of evaluation index.By analyzing geological factors and engineering factors in tunnel zone,a multi-grade hierarchical index system for tunnel water inrush risk assessment is established.The proposed method is applied to ventilation incline of Xiakou tunnel,and its rationality and practicability is verified by comparison with field situation and evaluation results of other methods.In addition,the results evaluated by this method,which considers that water inrush is a complex non-linear system and the geological conditions have spatial variability,are more accurate and reliable.And it has good applicability in solving the problem of certain and uncertain problem.展开更多
A method based on cumulative prospect theory was proposed to solve risky multiple attribute decision making problems with Four -dimensional reference points. Considering the influence of different learning processes a...A method based on cumulative prospect theory was proposed to solve risky multiple attribute decision making problems with Four -dimensional reference points. Considering the influence of different learning processes and corresponding features on decision-making, a new reference-learning behavior is added, and a risk-based multiple-attribute decision-making method based on four-dimensional reference point cumulative prospect theory is proposed. Firstly, according to the cumulative prospect theory, the prospect value and the decision function value of the four reference points of learning, time, evaluation value and expected value are calculated respectively, and the cumulative prospect value matrix of each program dynamic is formed. Secondly,according to the WAA operalor, Maximize the stage weighting model to obtain the integrated cumulative prospect value. Finally, on the basis of this, the alternatives are sorted according to the size of the total cumulative prospect value, and compared with other methods, the validity and scientific of the proposed method are proved.展开更多
原发性肝癌是世界上常见的恶性肿瘤之一,具有较高的发病率和死亡率。本文详述了目前我国原发性肝癌的流行病学情况、人群归因分值及其相关危险因素。本文通过检索PubMed、Web of Science、中国知网等数据库发现,乙型肝炎病毒和丙型肝炎...原发性肝癌是世界上常见的恶性肿瘤之一,具有较高的发病率和死亡率。本文详述了目前我国原发性肝癌的流行病学情况、人群归因分值及其相关危险因素。本文通过检索PubMed、Web of Science、中国知网等数据库发现,乙型肝炎病毒和丙型肝炎病毒仍是原发性肝癌发病的主要危险因素。随着乙型肝炎病毒疫苗接种以及抗病毒治疗,我国原发性肝癌的发病率略有下降,但代谢性因素如糖尿病、肥胖和非酒精性脂肪性肝病等引起的原发性肝癌的发病率正逐步上升;吸烟、饮酒等也是重要的危险因素。本文综述了原发性肝癌的流行病学特点及危险因素,可为制订原发性肝癌防控措施提供切实有力的循证医学证据。展开更多
目的评估癌症、心脑血管疾病、糖尿病及慢性呼吸系统疾病(以下简称“四大慢病”)的主要危险因素及相关危险因素暴露的疾病负担。方法本研究数据来源于2019年全球疾病负担研究(Global Burden of Disease Study,GBD)数据库,通过获取2019...目的评估癌症、心脑血管疾病、糖尿病及慢性呼吸系统疾病(以下简称“四大慢病”)的主要危险因素及相关危险因素暴露的疾病负担。方法本研究数据来源于2019年全球疾病负担研究(Global Burden of Disease Study,GBD)数据库,通过获取2019年我国居民四大慢病的死亡病例数和伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life years,DALYs),分析四大慢病归因于相关危险因素暴露的比例。结果烟草暴露是造成恶性肿瘤疾病负担最主要的危险因素,导致的DALYs占比达31.4%;心脑血管疾病的首要危险因素是高收缩压,导致的DALYs占比达55.6%。四大慢病的共同危险因素有烟草暴露、空气污染和高身体质量指数,其中烟草暴露在恶性肿瘤和慢性呼吸系统疾病中归因风险比例最高,饮食相关危险因素、饮酒和体力活动不足与恶性肿瘤、心脑血管疾病及糖尿病密切相关。对主要恶性肿瘤疾病负担的归因分析结果显示,烟草暴露归因风险比例最高的是肺癌,其次是食管癌、胃癌、肝癌及结直肠癌。结论烟草暴露、空气污染和高身体质量指数是我国居民癌症等四大慢病的共同危险因素,能为四大慢病高风险人群筛选提供重要依据。展开更多
目的:分析海南省1990至2019年肝癌疾病负担的变化趋势及其危险因素归因情况。方法:根据2019年全球疾病负担(Global Burden of Disease,GBD)研究的海南省数据,利用Joinpoint回归模型分析1990至2019年海南省肝癌发病、死亡、伤残调整寿命...目的:分析海南省1990至2019年肝癌疾病负担的变化趋势及其危险因素归因情况。方法:根据2019年全球疾病负担(Global Burden of Disease,GBD)研究的海南省数据,利用Joinpoint回归模型分析1990至2019年海南省肝癌发病、死亡、伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life year,DALY)的变化趋势,平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change,AAPC)用于描述年平均变化趋势,年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC)用于描述不同阶段时间变化趋势,归因DALY率用于描述危险因素归因情况。结果:1990至2019年海南省肝癌年龄标化发病率、年龄标化死亡率及年龄标化DALY率均呈下降趋势,分别下降了59.30%、61.21%和64.03%(P<0.001)。1990至2019年海南省40岁以下人群肝癌的年龄标化DALY率均较低,1990年的年龄标化DALY率的峰值出现在55~59岁年龄组,2019年后移至75~79岁年龄组。在1990至2019年期间,吸烟一直是海南省肝癌归因DALY率的主要危险因素,而在2019年,高BMI已经超越了药物使用因素,成为肝癌疾病负担的第三大危险因素。结论:海南省肝癌疾病负担总体呈下降趋势,峰值年龄段后移,吸烟、饮酒和高BMI仍是主要危险因素,应继续加强肝癌的早诊早治及危险因素干预等防控工作。展开更多
基金key technology project for the prevention and control of major workplace safety accidents in 2017 from the State Administration of Work Safety of China-the research on the identification and assessment technology and control system of major risks of enterprises for the prevention and control of severe accidents(Hubei-0002-2017AQ)supported by the Department of Emergency Management of Hubei Province,Wuhan 430064,China.
文摘The technological revolution has spawned a new generation of industrial systems,but it has also put forward higher requirements for safety management accuracy,timeliness,and systematicness.Risk assessment needs to evolve to address the existing and future challenges by considering the new demands and advancements in safety management.The study aims to propose a systematic and comprehensive risk assessment method to meet the needs of process system safety management.The methodology first incorporates possibility,severity,and dynamicity(PSD)to structure the“51X”evaluation indicator system,including the inherent,management,and disturbance risk factors.Subsequently,the four-tier(risk point-unit-enterprise-region)risk assessment(RA)mathematical model has been established to consider supervision needs.And in conclusion,the application of the PSD-RA method in ammonia refrigeration workshop cases and safety risk monitoring systems is presented to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed PSD-RA method in safety management.The findings show that the PSD-RA method can be well integrated with the needs of safety work informatization,which is also helpful for implementing the enterprise's safety work responsibility and the government's safety supervision responsibility.
基金supported by the funds of Key Discipline and Specialty Foundation of Shanghai Municipal Commission of Health and Family Planningthe National Key Basic Research Program "973 project" (2015CB554000)grants from US National Institutes of Health (R37 CA070867, R01 CA82729, UM1CA173640, and UM1 CA182910)
文摘Objective： To evaluate the population attributable risks （PARs） between cigarette smoking and deaths of all causes, all cancers, lung cancer and other chronic diseases in urban Shanghai. Methods： In total, 61,480 men aged 40-74 years from 2002 to 2006 and 74,941 women aged 40-70 years from 1997 to 2000 were recruited to undergo baseline surveys in urban Shanghai, with response rates of 74.0% and 92.3%, respectively. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate relative risks （RRs） and 95% confidence intervals （95% CIs） of deaths associated with cigarette smoking. PARs and 95 % CIs for deaths were estimated from smoking exposure rates and the estimated RRs. Results： Cigarette smoking was responsible for 23.9% （95% CI： 19.4-28.3%） and 2.4% （95% Ch 1.6- 3.2%） of all deaths in men and women, respectively, in our study population. Respiratory disease had the highest PAR in men [37.5% （95% CI： 21.5-51.6%）], followed by cancer [31.3% （95% Ch 24.6-37.7%）] and cardiovascular disease （CVD） [24.1% （95% CI： 16.7-31.2%）]. While the top three PARs were 12.7% （95% CI： 6.1-19.3%）, 4.0% （95% CI： 2.4-5.6%）, and 1.1% （95% CI： 0.0-2.3%）, for respiratory disease, CVD, and cancer, respectively in women. For deaths of lung cancer, the PAR of smoking was 68.4% （95% CI： 58.2- 76.5%） in men. Conclusions： In urban Shanghai, 23.9% and 2.4% of all deaths in men and women could have been prevented if no people had smoked in the area. Effective control programs against cigarette smoking should be strongly advocated to reduce the increasing smoking-related death burden.
基金the financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52104013)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2022T150724)。
文摘Due to the complexity and variability of carbonate formation leakage zones, lost circulation prediction and control is one of the major challenges of carbonate drilling. It raises well-control risks and production expenses. This research utilizes the H oilfield as an example, employs seismic features to analyze mud loss prediction, and produces a complete set of pre-drilling mud loss prediction solutions. Firstly, 16seismic attributes are calculated based on the post-stack seismic data, and the mud loss rate per unit footage is specified. The sample set is constructed by extracting each attribute from the seismic trace surrounding 15 typical wells, with a ratio of 8:2 between the training set and the test set. With the calibration results for mud loss rate per unit footage, the nonlinear mapping relationship between seismic attributes and mud loss rate per unit size is established using the mixed density network model.Then, the influence of the number of sub-Gausses and the uncertainty coefficient on the model's prediction is evaluated. Finally, the model is used in conjunction with downhole drilling conditions to assess the risk of mud loss in various layers and along the wellbore trajectory. The study demonstrates that the mean relative errors of the model for training data and test data are 6.9% and 7.5%, respectively, and that R2is 90% and 88%, respectively, for training data and test data. The accuracy and efficacy of mud loss prediction may be greatly enhanced by combining 16 seismic attributes with the mud loss rate per unit footage and applying machine learning methods. The mud loss prediction model based on the MDN model can not only predict the mud loss rate but also objectively evaluate the prediction based on the quality of the data and the model.
文摘Effect sizes are estimated from several study designs when the subjects are individually sampled. When the samples are the aggregate cluster of individuals, the within cluster correlation must be accounted for to construct correct confidence intervals, and to conduct valid statistical inference. The purpose of this article is to propose and evaluate statistical procedures for the estimation of the variance of the estimated attributable risk in parallel groups of clusters, and in a design dividing each of k clusters into two segments creating multiple sub-clusters. The estimated variance is the first order approximation and is obtained by the delta method. We apply the methodology and propose a Wald type confidence interval on the difference between two correlated attributable risks. We also construct a test on the hypothesis of equality of two correlated attributable risks. We evaluate the power of the proposed test via Monte-Carlo simulations.
基金Project(2013CB036004) supported by National Basic Research Program(973)of ChinaProject(51378510) supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Tunnel water inrush is one of the common geological disasters in the underground engineering construction.In order to effectively evaluate and control the occurrence of water inrush,the risk assessment model of tunnel water inrush was proposed based on improved attribute mathematical theory.The trigonometric functions were adopted to optimize the attribute mathematical theory,avoiding the influence of mutation points and linear variation zones in traditional linear measurement functions on the accuracy of the model.Based on comprehensive analysis of various factors,five parameters were selected as the evaluation indicators for the model,including tunnel head pressure,permeability coefficient of surrounding rock,crushing degree of surrounding rock,relative angle of joint plane and tunnel section size,under the principle of dimension rationality,independence,directness and quantification.The indicator classifications were determined.The links among measured data were analyzed in detail,and the objective weight of each indicator was determined by using similar weight method.Thereby the tunnel water inrush risk assessment model is established and applied in four target segments of two different tunnels in engineering.The evaluation results and the actual excavation data agree well,which indicates that the model is of high credibility and feasibility.
基金Project(51722904)supported by the National Science Fund for Excellent Young Scholars,ChinaProject(51679131)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China+2 种基金Project(2019JZZY010601)supported by the Shandong Provincial Key Research and Development Program(Major Scientific and Technological Innovation Project),ChinaProject(KJ1712304)supported by the Science and Technology Research Program of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission,ChinaProject(2016XJQN13)supported by the Yangtze Normal University Research Project,China
文摘Water inrush is one of the most serious geological hazards in underground engineering construction.In order to effectively prevent and control the occurrence of water inrush,a new attribute interval recognition theory and method is proposed to systematically evaluate the risk of water inrush in karst tunnels.Its innovation mainly includes that the value of evaluation index is an interval rather than a certain value;the single-index attribute evaluation model is improved non-linearly based on the idea of normal distribution;the synthetic attribute interval analysis method based on improved intuitionistic fuzzy theory is proposed.The TFN-AHP method is proposed to analyze the weight of evaluation index.By analyzing geological factors and engineering factors in tunnel zone,a multi-grade hierarchical index system for tunnel water inrush risk assessment is established.The proposed method is applied to ventilation incline of Xiakou tunnel,and its rationality and practicability is verified by comparison with field situation and evaluation results of other methods.In addition,the results evaluated by this method,which considers that water inrush is a complex non-linear system and the geological conditions have spatial variability,are more accurate and reliable.And it has good applicability in solving the problem of certain and uncertain problem.
文摘A method based on cumulative prospect theory was proposed to solve risky multiple attribute decision making problems with Four -dimensional reference points. Considering the influence of different learning processes and corresponding features on decision-making, a new reference-learning behavior is added, and a risk-based multiple-attribute decision-making method based on four-dimensional reference point cumulative prospect theory is proposed. Firstly, according to the cumulative prospect theory, the prospect value and the decision function value of the four reference points of learning, time, evaluation value and expected value are calculated respectively, and the cumulative prospect value matrix of each program dynamic is formed. Secondly,according to the WAA operalor, Maximize the stage weighting model to obtain the integrated cumulative prospect value. Finally, on the basis of this, the alternatives are sorted according to the size of the total cumulative prospect value, and compared with other methods, the validity and scientific of the proposed method are proved.
文摘原发性肝癌是世界上常见的恶性肿瘤之一,具有较高的发病率和死亡率。本文详述了目前我国原发性肝癌的流行病学情况、人群归因分值及其相关危险因素。本文通过检索PubMed、Web of Science、中国知网等数据库发现,乙型肝炎病毒和丙型肝炎病毒仍是原发性肝癌发病的主要危险因素。随着乙型肝炎病毒疫苗接种以及抗病毒治疗,我国原发性肝癌的发病率略有下降,但代谢性因素如糖尿病、肥胖和非酒精性脂肪性肝病等引起的原发性肝癌的发病率正逐步上升;吸烟、饮酒等也是重要的危险因素。本文综述了原发性肝癌的流行病学特点及危险因素,可为制订原发性肝癌防控措施提供切实有力的循证医学证据。
文摘目的评估癌症、心脑血管疾病、糖尿病及慢性呼吸系统疾病(以下简称“四大慢病”)的主要危险因素及相关危险因素暴露的疾病负担。方法本研究数据来源于2019年全球疾病负担研究(Global Burden of Disease Study,GBD)数据库,通过获取2019年我国居民四大慢病的死亡病例数和伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life years,DALYs),分析四大慢病归因于相关危险因素暴露的比例。结果烟草暴露是造成恶性肿瘤疾病负担最主要的危险因素,导致的DALYs占比达31.4%;心脑血管疾病的首要危险因素是高收缩压,导致的DALYs占比达55.6%。四大慢病的共同危险因素有烟草暴露、空气污染和高身体质量指数,其中烟草暴露在恶性肿瘤和慢性呼吸系统疾病中归因风险比例最高,饮食相关危险因素、饮酒和体力活动不足与恶性肿瘤、心脑血管疾病及糖尿病密切相关。对主要恶性肿瘤疾病负担的归因分析结果显示,烟草暴露归因风险比例最高的是肺癌,其次是食管癌、胃癌、肝癌及结直肠癌。结论烟草暴露、空气污染和高身体质量指数是我国居民癌症等四大慢病的共同危险因素,能为四大慢病高风险人群筛选提供重要依据。
