Related to complexity, there is a wide diversity of concepts, ranging from ‘‘systemic" to ‘‘complex", implying a need for a unified terminology. Per different authors, the main drivers of complexity can ...Related to complexity, there is a wide diversity of concepts, ranging from ‘‘systemic" to ‘‘complex", implying a need for a unified terminology. Per different authors, the main drivers of complexity can be found in human behaviour and uncertainty. This complexity, structural or dynamic can be organizational, technological, or nested in their relationship. ISO international standard 31000:2009 definition of risk management ‘‘coordinated activities to direct and control an organization with regard to risk", when applied to economic sectors, industry, services, project, or activity, it requires the use of models or theories as guidelines. Therefore, as its basic elements comprehend human behaviour and/or uncertainty, risk management to be effective and adapted as much as possible to reality, must be operational within complex systems, as already demonstrated in different R&D environments. Risk management faces demanding challenges when approaching specific and endogenous needs, such as the mining sector. This paper presents a multivariable function analysis methodology approach based on complex system modelling and through real data corresponding to a risk management tool in the mining sector.展开更多
This paper presents a rapid and simple risk calculation method for large and complex engineering systems, the simulated maximum entropy method （SMEM）, which is based on integration of the advantages of the Monte Car...This paper presents a rapid and simple risk calculation method for large and complex engineering systems, the simulated maximum entropy method （SMEM）, which is based on integration of the advantages of the Monte Carlo and maximum entropy methods, thus avoiding the shortcoming of the slow convergence rate of the Monte Carlo method in risk calculation. Application of SMEM in the calculation of reservoir flood discharge risk shows that this method can make full use of the known information under the same conditions and obtain the corresponding probability distribution and the risk value. It not only greatly improves the speed, compared with the Monte Carlo method, but also provides a new approach for the risk calculation in large and complex engineering systems.展开更多
Aim: To determine the frequency and the risk factors of Complex Regional Pain syndrome (CRPS) in Cotonou (Benin). Patients and Méthod: This has been a transversal study carried out over 22 years on files of CRPS ...Aim: To determine the frequency and the risk factors of Complex Regional Pain syndrome (CRPS) in Cotonou (Benin). Patients and Méthod: This has been a transversal study carried out over 22 years on files of CRPS infected patients and submitted to rheumatologic consultation in the National Hospital University of Cotonou. Results: 73 out of 17,342 patients examined (0.42%) were suffering from CRPS. Those 73 patients (40 women, 54.8% and 33 men, 45.2%) were in average 54.66 years old and enjoyed an average duration of evolution of 5.79 months. The trauma (41 cases, 56.1%), the stroke (19 cases, 25%), the diabetes (8 cases, 11.3), were the main risk factors that were observed. CRPS was preferably located at the shoulder-hand (34.2%), shoulder (28.8%), wrist-hand (16.4%) and knee (11%). Inflammatory pain was observed in 55 cases. The treatment was dominated by griseofulvina (41 cases, 56.1%), antiinflammatory drugs (38 cases, 52%), analgesic (20 cases, 27, 3%), joint injection by betamethasone (17 cases, 27%). Conclusion: CRPS is not rare in our country. The first risk factor remains the trauma in rheumatologic consultation in Cotonou.展开更多
文摘Related to complexity, there is a wide diversity of concepts, ranging from ‘‘systemic" to ‘‘complex", implying a need for a unified terminology. Per different authors, the main drivers of complexity can be found in human behaviour and uncertainty. This complexity, structural or dynamic can be organizational, technological, or nested in their relationship. ISO international standard 31000:2009 definition of risk management ‘‘coordinated activities to direct and control an organization with regard to risk", when applied to economic sectors, industry, services, project, or activity, it requires the use of models or theories as guidelines. Therefore, as its basic elements comprehend human behaviour and/or uncertainty, risk management to be effective and adapted as much as possible to reality, must be operational within complex systems, as already demonstrated in different R&D environments. Risk management faces demanding challenges when approaching specific and endogenous needs, such as the mining sector. This paper presents a multivariable function analysis methodology approach based on complex system modelling and through real data corresponding to a risk management tool in the mining sector.
基金supported by the National Water Pollution Control and Management Technology Major Projects(Grant No. 2009ZX07423-001)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No.51179069and 40971300)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grants No.10QX43,09MG16,and 10QG23)
文摘This paper presents a rapid and simple risk calculation method for large and complex engineering systems, the simulated maximum entropy method （SMEM）, which is based on integration of the advantages of the Monte Carlo and maximum entropy methods, thus avoiding the shortcoming of the slow convergence rate of the Monte Carlo method in risk calculation. Application of SMEM in the calculation of reservoir flood discharge risk shows that this method can make full use of the known information under the same conditions and obtain the corresponding probability distribution and the risk value. It not only greatly improves the speed, compared with the Monte Carlo method, but also provides a new approach for the risk calculation in large and complex engineering systems.
文摘Aim: To determine the frequency and the risk factors of Complex Regional Pain syndrome (CRPS) in Cotonou (Benin). Patients and Méthod: This has been a transversal study carried out over 22 years on files of CRPS infected patients and submitted to rheumatologic consultation in the National Hospital University of Cotonou. Results: 73 out of 17,342 patients examined (0.42%) were suffering from CRPS. Those 73 patients (40 women, 54.8% and 33 men, 45.2%) were in average 54.66 years old and enjoyed an average duration of evolution of 5.79 months. The trauma (41 cases, 56.1%), the stroke (19 cases, 25%), the diabetes (8 cases, 11.3), were the main risk factors that were observed. CRPS was preferably located at the shoulder-hand (34.2%), shoulder (28.8%), wrist-hand (16.4%) and knee (11%). Inflammatory pain was observed in 55 cases. The treatment was dominated by griseofulvina (41 cases, 56.1%), antiinflammatory drugs (38 cases, 52%), analgesic (20 cases, 27, 3%), joint injection by betamethasone (17 cases, 27%). Conclusion: CRPS is not rare in our country. The first risk factor remains the trauma in rheumatologic consultation in Cotonou.
