Decisions are often needed about the need and/or extent of protective measures against explosive blast loads on built infrastructure. A decision support analysis considers fatality risks and cost-effectiveness of prot...Decisions are often needed about the need and/or extent of protective measures against explosive blast loads on built infrastructure. A decision support analysis considers fatality risks and cost-effectiveness of protective measures expressed in terms of expected cost spent on risk reduction per life saved for terrorist threats to infrastructure. The analysis is applicable to any item of infrastructure, but in this paper is applied to casualties arising from building facade glazing damage. Risks may be compared with risk acceptance criteria in the form of quantitative safety goals. The risk acceptability and cost-effectiveness of protective measures includes cost of the protective measures, attack probability,reduction in risk due to protective measures,probability of fatality conditional on successful terrorist attack and number of exposed individuals.展开更多
Background: Kidney (renal) diseases and dialysis are among the most costly disorders and represent a worldwide burden. In this study, we evaluate the medical costs for individuals with kidney diseases and risk factors...Background: Kidney (renal) diseases and dialysis are among the most costly disorders and represent a worldwide burden. In this study, we evaluate the medical costs for individuals with kidney diseases and risk factors for the diseases in Japan. Data and Methods: The dataset used contained 113,979 medical checkups and 3,172,066 medical cost records obtained from 48,022 individuals in one health insurance society. The sample period was April 2013 to March 2016. We evaluated the distribution of all medical costs, and those of kidney diseases specifically. Then the power transformation Tobit model was used to remove the effects of other variables. Finally, a probit analysis was used to analyze the risk factors. Results: In 0.25% of all cases, individuals were diagnosed with kidney diseases. An individual with kidney disease cost 14.5 times more than those without kidney disease. If the diseases progressed into chronic kidney disease (CKD), the medical costs increased substantially. Even disregarding various characteristics of individuals, this conclusion did not vary. We found important risk factors included diabetes and blood pressure problems. In particular, an individual with both factors had a high probability of developing kidney disease. Conclusion: Kidney diseases are much costlier than other diseases. Screening high-risk individuals, educating patients, and ensuring that treatment begins at an early stage are critically important to controlling medical costs. Limitations: The dataset was observatory, and the sample period was only 3 years.展开更多
AIM:To estimate the cost-benefit of endoscopic screening strategies of esophageal cancer(EC)in high-risk areas of China. METHODS:Markov model-based analyses were conducted to compare the net present values(NPVs)and th...AIM:To estimate the cost-benefit of endoscopic screening strategies of esophageal cancer(EC)in high-risk areas of China. METHODS:Markov model-based analyses were conducted to compare the net present values(NPVs)and the benefit-cost ratios(BCRs)of 12 EC endoscopic screening strategies.Strategies varied according to the targeted screening age,screening frequencies,and follow-up intervals.Model parameters were collected from population-based studies in China,published literatures,and surveillance data. RESULTS:Compared with non-screening outcomes,all strategies with hypothetical 100 000 subjects saved life years.Among five dominant strategies determined by the incremental cost-effectiveness analysis,screening once at age 50 years incurred the lowest NPV(international dollar-I$55 million)and BCR(2.52).Screening six times between 40-70 years at a 5-year interval[i.e., six times(40)f-strategy]yielded the highest NPV(I$99 million)and BCR(3.06).Compared with six times(40)fstrategy,screening thrice between 40-70 years at a 10-year interval resulted in relatively lower NPV,but the same BCR. CONCLUSION:EC endoscopic screening is cost-beneficial in high-risk areas of China.Policy-makers should consider the cost-benefit,population acceptance,and local economic status when choosing suitable screening strategies.展开更多
AIM: To assess the risk factors for cost-related medication non-adherence(CRN) among older patients with diabetes in the United States. METHODS: We used data from the 2010 Health and Retirement Study to assess risk fa...AIM: To assess the risk factors for cost-related medication non-adherence(CRN) among older patients with diabetes in the United States. METHODS: We used data from the 2010 Health and Retirement Study to assess risk factors for CRN including age, drug insurance coverage, nursing home residence, functional limitations, and frequency of hospitalization. CRN was self-reported. We conducted multivariate regression analysis to assess the effect of each risk factor. RESULTS: Eight hundred and seventy-five(18%) of 4880 diabetes patients reported CRN. Age less than 65 years, lack of drug insurance coverage, and frequent hospitalization significantly increased risk for CRN. Limitation in both activities of daily living and instrumental activities of daily living were also generally associated with increased risk of CRN. Residence in a nursing home and Medicaid coverage significantly reduced risk.CONCLUSION: These results suggest that expandingprescription coverage to uninsured, sicker, and community-dwelling individuals is likely to produce the largest decreases in CRN.展开更多
Recently, the highway construction projects increase rapidly in Vietnam and most of them are international contracting projects. It results serious negative influence on the local government and enterprises that the c...Recently, the highway construction projects increase rapidly in Vietnam and most of them are international contracting projects. It results serious negative influence on the local government and enterprises that the common cost overrun of projects, and the risk factors of it is different in the different countries, different stages and projects types. So in this paper, we generate an evaluation index system of highway construction projects cost overrun risk in Vietnam in the perspective of different project participants, and also evaluate the effects of these factors in method of regression analysis. The empirical results confirmed 7 main factors that have aggravated cost overrun risk in construction stages, e.g. survey and design scheme risk. In final, the corresponding suggestions are proposed to reduce the project cost overrun risk.展开更多
With the implementation of the policy of popularization of education, rural families make the choice of interests and behavior decisions through the calculation of their own benefits and costs, and gradually become th...With the implementation of the policy of popularization of education, rural families make the choice of interests and behavior decisions through the calculation of their own benefits and costs, and gradually become the main body of rural education investment decisions. The relationship between educational cost and income plays a major role in the rural family education investment. Based on the current situation of rural education in our country, this paper focuses on the risk of rural education investment and rural education costs and benefits, and then puts forward scientific, operational measures and suggestions.展开更多
A complete research of seismic risk assessment is presented herein focused on the existing build- ings of the extended urban region of Athens in Greece. The seismic risk assessment is fulfilled by discriminating the c...A complete research of seismic risk assessment is presented herein focused on the existing build- ings of the extended urban region of Athens in Greece. The seismic risk assessment is fulfilled by discriminating the current study in two approaches, probable and actual, conducting afterwards between them a comparison analysis. In the first part, a pilot methodology is developed for the seismic loss assessment in monetary terms regarding the buildings damages, consistent with the National Programme for Earthquake Management of Existing Buildings (NPEMEB). The building stock consists of typical building types of Southern Europe and refers to 750,085 buildings (18.80% of buildings in Greece) situated in the entire region of Athens according to the results of the 2000-1 statistical census. A wider research of seismic risk assessment could include direct losses of infrastructures and indirect economic losses. The evaluation of loss due to building damage in a certain region requires an assessment of both seismic hazard and vulnerability of the building stock in the study area. Four different existing damage scenarios are applied for the vulnerability assessment. The results of the seismic risk assessment for the four different aspects of the es- timated damage and the different soil conditions are presented in a map of the study region. The existing vulnerability curves corresponding to defined types of buildings have been derived from the National Technical Chamber of Greece and also from recently developed DPMs. The last DPMs were obtained in a previous research (Eleftheriadou, 2009) from the process of a created damage database after the 7th of September 1999 Parnitha’s earthquake and comprised 180,945 buildings which developed damage of varying degree, type and extent. In the second part of the research, the seismic risk is evaluated from the available data regarding the mean statistical repair/ strengthening or replacement cost for the total number of damaged structures (180,427 buildings) after the same (1999 Parnitha’s) seismic event. Data regarding the compatible (budget approved according to the ministry’s provisions) repair cost has been collected. The structural losses in monetary terms for the 180,427 buildings damaged structures are evaluated equal to 2450.0 Μ€, 1887.8 Μ€ and 2118.9 Μ€ based on the previously mentioned statistical seismic risk data. The statistically derived repair cost for Attica is compared with the results of the economic loss esti- mation for buildings using the aforementioned risk assessment methodology. From the analysis results, the seismic scenario based on the recently developed DPMs (Eleftheriadou, 2009) pre- sented the better correlation (2627.77 M€) with the total statistically evaluated repair cost (2450.02 M€). It is important to stress that the inclusion of the coefficient parameter S overes- timates significantly the seismic losses. The last result should be taken into consideration in future risk researches. The comparison of the estimated economic loss with the statistical repair cost calibrates the reliability of the commonly used risk assessment method and serves in the im- provement of seismic security prioritizing the criteria for seismic rehabilitation programmes of existing buildings.展开更多
This paper analyzes an open pit gold mine project based on the O'Hara cost model. Hypothetical data is proposed based on different authors that have studied open pit gold projects, and variations are proposed acco...This paper analyzes an open pit gold mine project based on the O'Hara cost model. Hypothetical data is proposed based on different authors that have studied open pit gold projects, and variations are proposed according to the probability distributions associated to key variables affecting the NPV, like production level, ore grade, price of ore, and others, so as to see what if, in a gold open pit mine project of 3000 metric tons per day of ore. Two case scenarios were analyzed to simulate the NPV, one where there is low certainty data available, and the other where the information available is of high certainty. Results based on genetic algorithm metaheuristic simulations, which combine basically Montecarlo simulations provided by the Palisade Risk software, the O'Hara cost model, net smelter return and financial analysis tools offered by Excel are reported, in order to determine to which variables of the project is more sensitive the NPV.展开更多
文摘Decisions are often needed about the need and/or extent of protective measures against explosive blast loads on built infrastructure. A decision support analysis considers fatality risks and cost-effectiveness of protective measures expressed in terms of expected cost spent on risk reduction per life saved for terrorist threats to infrastructure. The analysis is applicable to any item of infrastructure, but in this paper is applied to casualties arising from building facade glazing damage. Risks may be compared with risk acceptance criteria in the form of quantitative safety goals. The risk acceptability and cost-effectiveness of protective measures includes cost of the protective measures, attack probability,reduction in risk due to protective measures,probability of fatality conditional on successful terrorist attack and number of exposed individuals.
文摘Background: Kidney (renal) diseases and dialysis are among the most costly disorders and represent a worldwide burden. In this study, we evaluate the medical costs for individuals with kidney diseases and risk factors for the diseases in Japan. Data and Methods: The dataset used contained 113,979 medical checkups and 3,172,066 medical cost records obtained from 48,022 individuals in one health insurance society. The sample period was April 2013 to March 2016. We evaluated the distribution of all medical costs, and those of kidney diseases specifically. Then the power transformation Tobit model was used to remove the effects of other variables. Finally, a probit analysis was used to analyze the risk factors. Results: In 0.25% of all cases, individuals were diagnosed with kidney diseases. An individual with kidney disease cost 14.5 times more than those without kidney disease. If the diseases progressed into chronic kidney disease (CKD), the medical costs increased substantially. Even disregarding various characteristics of individuals, this conclusion did not vary. We found important risk factors included diabetes and blood pressure problems. In particular, an individual with both factors had a high probability of developing kidney disease. Conclusion: Kidney diseases are much costlier than other diseases. Screening high-risk individuals, educating patients, and ensuring that treatment begins at an early stage are critically important to controlling medical costs. Limitations: The dataset was observatory, and the sample period was only 3 years.
基金Supported by The National Science and Technology Pillar Program of the 11th National Five-Year Plan of China,No. 2006BAI02A15
文摘AIM:To estimate the cost-benefit of endoscopic screening strategies of esophageal cancer(EC)in high-risk areas of China. METHODS:Markov model-based analyses were conducted to compare the net present values(NPVs)and the benefit-cost ratios(BCRs)of 12 EC endoscopic screening strategies.Strategies varied according to the targeted screening age,screening frequencies,and follow-up intervals.Model parameters were collected from population-based studies in China,published literatures,and surveillance data. RESULTS:Compared with non-screening outcomes,all strategies with hypothetical 100 000 subjects saved life years.Among five dominant strategies determined by the incremental cost-effectiveness analysis,screening once at age 50 years incurred the lowest NPV(international dollar-I$55 million)and BCR(2.52).Screening six times between 40-70 years at a 5-year interval[i.e., six times(40)f-strategy]yielded the highest NPV(I$99 million)and BCR(3.06).Compared with six times(40)fstrategy,screening thrice between 40-70 years at a 10-year interval resulted in relatively lower NPV,but the same BCR. CONCLUSION:EC endoscopic screening is cost-beneficial in high-risk areas of China.Policy-makers should consider the cost-benefit,population acceptance,and local economic status when choosing suitable screening strategies.
文摘AIM: To assess the risk factors for cost-related medication non-adherence(CRN) among older patients with diabetes in the United States. METHODS: We used data from the 2010 Health and Retirement Study to assess risk factors for CRN including age, drug insurance coverage, nursing home residence, functional limitations, and frequency of hospitalization. CRN was self-reported. We conducted multivariate regression analysis to assess the effect of each risk factor. RESULTS: Eight hundred and seventy-five(18%) of 4880 diabetes patients reported CRN. Age less than 65 years, lack of drug insurance coverage, and frequent hospitalization significantly increased risk for CRN. Limitation in both activities of daily living and instrumental activities of daily living were also generally associated with increased risk of CRN. Residence in a nursing home and Medicaid coverage significantly reduced risk.CONCLUSION: These results suggest that expandingprescription coverage to uninsured, sicker, and community-dwelling individuals is likely to produce the largest decreases in CRN.
文摘Recently, the highway construction projects increase rapidly in Vietnam and most of them are international contracting projects. It results serious negative influence on the local government and enterprises that the common cost overrun of projects, and the risk factors of it is different in the different countries, different stages and projects types. So in this paper, we generate an evaluation index system of highway construction projects cost overrun risk in Vietnam in the perspective of different project participants, and also evaluate the effects of these factors in method of regression analysis. The empirical results confirmed 7 main factors that have aggravated cost overrun risk in construction stages, e.g. survey and design scheme risk. In final, the corresponding suggestions are proposed to reduce the project cost overrun risk.
文摘With the implementation of the policy of popularization of education, rural families make the choice of interests and behavior decisions through the calculation of their own benefits and costs, and gradually become the main body of rural education investment decisions. The relationship between educational cost and income plays a major role in the rural family education investment. Based on the current situation of rural education in our country, this paper focuses on the risk of rural education investment and rural education costs and benefits, and then puts forward scientific, operational measures and suggestions.
文摘A complete research of seismic risk assessment is presented herein focused on the existing build- ings of the extended urban region of Athens in Greece. The seismic risk assessment is fulfilled by discriminating the current study in two approaches, probable and actual, conducting afterwards between them a comparison analysis. In the first part, a pilot methodology is developed for the seismic loss assessment in monetary terms regarding the buildings damages, consistent with the National Programme for Earthquake Management of Existing Buildings (NPEMEB). The building stock consists of typical building types of Southern Europe and refers to 750,085 buildings (18.80% of buildings in Greece) situated in the entire region of Athens according to the results of the 2000-1 statistical census. A wider research of seismic risk assessment could include direct losses of infrastructures and indirect economic losses. The evaluation of loss due to building damage in a certain region requires an assessment of both seismic hazard and vulnerability of the building stock in the study area. Four different existing damage scenarios are applied for the vulnerability assessment. The results of the seismic risk assessment for the four different aspects of the es- timated damage and the different soil conditions are presented in a map of the study region. The existing vulnerability curves corresponding to defined types of buildings have been derived from the National Technical Chamber of Greece and also from recently developed DPMs. The last DPMs were obtained in a previous research (Eleftheriadou, 2009) from the process of a created damage database after the 7th of September 1999 Parnitha’s earthquake and comprised 180,945 buildings which developed damage of varying degree, type and extent. In the second part of the research, the seismic risk is evaluated from the available data regarding the mean statistical repair/ strengthening or replacement cost for the total number of damaged structures (180,427 buildings) after the same (1999 Parnitha’s) seismic event. Data regarding the compatible (budget approved according to the ministry’s provisions) repair cost has been collected. The structural losses in monetary terms for the 180,427 buildings damaged structures are evaluated equal to 2450.0 Μ€, 1887.8 Μ€ and 2118.9 Μ€ based on the previously mentioned statistical seismic risk data. The statistically derived repair cost for Attica is compared with the results of the economic loss esti- mation for buildings using the aforementioned risk assessment methodology. From the analysis results, the seismic scenario based on the recently developed DPMs (Eleftheriadou, 2009) pre- sented the better correlation (2627.77 M€) with the total statistically evaluated repair cost (2450.02 M€). It is important to stress that the inclusion of the coefficient parameter S overes- timates significantly the seismic losses. The last result should be taken into consideration in future risk researches. The comparison of the estimated economic loss with the statistical repair cost calibrates the reliability of the commonly used risk assessment method and serves in the im- provement of seismic security prioritizing the criteria for seismic rehabilitation programmes of existing buildings.
基金the Mine Planning Research Group–GIPLAMIN-of the Mines Faculty,National University of Colombia
文摘This paper analyzes an open pit gold mine project based on the O'Hara cost model. Hypothetical data is proposed based on different authors that have studied open pit gold projects, and variations are proposed according to the probability distributions associated to key variables affecting the NPV, like production level, ore grade, price of ore, and others, so as to see what if, in a gold open pit mine project of 3000 metric tons per day of ore. Two case scenarios were analyzed to simulate the NPV, one where there is low certainty data available, and the other where the information available is of high certainty. Results based on genetic algorithm metaheuristic simulations, which combine basically Montecarlo simulations provided by the Palisade Risk software, the O'Hara cost model, net smelter return and financial analysis tools offered by Excel are reported, in order to determine to which variables of the project is more sensitive the NPV.