Driving safety field(DSF) model has been proposed to represent comprehensive driving risk formed by interactions of driver-vehicle-road in mixed traffic environment. In this work, we establish an optimization model ba...Driving safety field(DSF) model has been proposed to represent comprehensive driving risk formed by interactions of driver-vehicle-road in mixed traffic environment. In this work, we establish an optimization model based on grey relation degree analysis to calibrate risk coefficients of DSF model. To solve the optimum solution, a genetic algorithm is employed. Finally, the DSF model is verified through a real-world driving experiment. Results show that the DSF model is consistent with driver's hazard perception and more sensitive than TTC. Moreover, the proposed DSF model offers a novel way for criticality assessment and decision-making of advanced driver assistance systems and intelligent connected vehicles.展开更多
The stress field caused by faulting has an effect on the stability of the neighboring faults, and the study on the fault interaction has a close relation with the prediction of seismic risk. Stress field caused by the...The stress field caused by faulting has an effect on the stability of the neighboring faults, and the study on the fault interaction has a close relation with the prediction of seismic risk. Stress field caused by the rectangle fault in the semi-infinite elastic medium is calculated on the basis of the elastic dislocation theory. The result shows that most of the successive large earthquakes, in the southwestern part of China and North China, occurred in the increasing area of shear stress S(xy) and the decreasing area of normal stress S(yy) The increasing of earthquake occurrence probability has a function relation with the increasing of stress. Earthquake triggering is resulted from the increasing of shear stress and the decreasing of normal stress. An activation coefficient A, of the earthquake is defined to express the change of seismic activity. The concrete risk region can be obtained through space scanning of At value. Finally, the fault interaction in a large scope is discussed in this paper.展开更多
The risk of drinking water is greatly concerned because of the large amount of pesticide applied to paddy field and the contamination of drinking water sources due to the runoff. A mathematical model is developed, ba...The risk of drinking water is greatly concerned because of the large amount of pesticide applied to paddy field and the contamination of drinking water sources due to the runoff. A mathematical model is developed, based on the mass balance, to predict the fate of paddy field pesticides from application, runoff and mixing in a river, taking account of the physical chemical properties and processes of volatilization, degradation, adsorption and desorption. The model is applied to a river basin in Japan to estimate the contaminant level of several popularly used pesticides at the water intakes. The health risk in drinking water induced by each pesticide concerned is estimated and evaluated by comparing with the acceptable daily intake values(ADI) and with that induced by trihalomethanes. An index to evaluate the total risk of all pesticides appearing in water is proposed. The methods for risk management are also discussed.展开更多
In spite of 36 years epidemiologic research, there is still an ongoing controversy about a causal link between childhood leukemia (CL) and exposure to extremely low frequency (ELF) magnetic fields (MF). Public concern...In spite of 36 years epidemiologic research, there is still an ongoing controversy about a causal link between childhood leukemia (CL) and exposure to extremely low frequency (ELF) magnetic fields (MF). Public concern has been increased by the fact that ELF MF have been classified as possibly carcinogenic to humans (class 2B) while exposure limits still remain three orders of magnitudes above reported CL risk onset levels. In a new synoptic approach rather than few selected ORs, all reported epidemiological risk estimates (ORs) are analyzed, both pooled together as well as separated into sub-pools of different exposure metric as well as of high and low exposure levels. The results explain the worrying offset of ORs towards increased CL risk as well as the reported puzzling dose-response at low MF levels as an artifact caused by the small-number effect. The synoptic analysis clarifies that ORs critically depend on statistical power. With increasing statistical power ORs decrease and finally converge to and stay at zero risk. This is found consistently at the entire data pool as well as at all sub-pools related to investigated exposure parameters (wire code, distance to MF source, and magnetic field value). Former contradictory results can now be explained. The synoptic analysis provides convincing evidence that the risk of childhood leukemia is not increased by exposure to ELF magnetic fields. IARC’s classification of ELF MF needs revision.展开更多
By applying man-machine-environment system engineering theory, safety risks on large scale field operation project have been evaluated in this article. The factors concerning with the man, machine and environment in s...By applying man-machine-environment system engineering theory, safety risks on large scale field operation project have been evaluated in this article. The factors concerning with the man, machine and environment in system were proposed separately. The value for lowest indexs was determined by decision-making of expert group. The weights were calculated based on AHP, and then safety risk assessment in different layers was made. The results show that the assessment method is reasonable, and it is significant for large scale field operation project safety managerment.展开更多
Guanting Reservoir, one of the drinking water supply sources of Beijing, suffers from water eutrophication. It is mainly supplied by Guishui River. Thus, to investigate the reasons of phosphorus (P) loss and improve...Guanting Reservoir, one of the drinking water supply sources of Beijing, suffers from water eutrophication. It is mainly supplied by Guishui River. Thus, to investigate the reasons of phosphorus (P) loss and improve the P management strategies in Guishui River watershed are important for the safety of drinking water in this region. In this study, a Revised Field P Ranking Scheme (PRS) was developed to reflect the field vulnerability of P loss at the field scale based on the Field PRS. In this new scheme, six factors are included, and each one was assigned a relative weight and a determination method. The affecting factors were classified into transport factors and source factors, and, the standards of environmental quality on surface water and soil erosion classification and degradation of the China were used in this scheme. By the new scheme, thirty-four fields in the Guishui River were categorized as "low", "medium" or "high" potential for P loss into the runoff. The results showed that the P loss risks of orchard and vegetable fields were higher than that of corn and soybean fields. The source factors were the main factors to affect P loss from the study area. In the study area, controlling P input and improving P usage efficiency are critical to decrease P loss. Based on the results, it was suggested that more attention should be paid on the fields of vegetable and orchard since they have extremely high usage rate of P and high soil test of P. Compared with P surplus by field measurements, the Revised Field PRS was more suitable for reflecting the characteristics of fields, and had higher potential capacity to identify critical source areas of P loss than PRS.展开更多
On the basis of study results of deep sounding in the Yanqing Huailai basin, the shallow active tectonics, palaeoseismic events, seismic activity, distribution of crustal stress field and other related data are combi...On the basis of study results of deep sounding in the Yanqing Huailai basin, the shallow active tectonics, palaeoseismic events, seismic activity, distribution of crustal stress field and other related data are combined to study the earthquake risk of the basin comprehensively. Meanwhile, the comparison of deep structures between the basin and some other earthquake regions such as the Xingtai area is made. It is thought that there is the background of deep structures for occurrence of moderate and strong earthquakes in the Yanqing Huailai basin and its periphery, and the possibility for an M =7 earthquake to occur there cannot be excluded.展开更多
In this paper, introducing new remote sensing and geographic information technology to solve the problem of data collection and analysis, this makes the study of ecological risk assessment very quick and accurate. Tak...In this paper, introducing new remote sensing and geographic information technology to solve the problem of data collection and analysis, this makes the study of ecological risk assessment very quick and accurate. Taking the Shan Xin mining area of the tin mine in Lengshuijiang of Hunan Province as the research object, using the remote sensing image data of three periods in 2005, 2010 and 2015, the remote sensing image is classified carefully and the landscape classification map of the mining area is obtained. The ecological risk index is introduced and the ecological risk values are sampled and interpolated on the ArcGIS platform. The ecological risk spatial distribution map based on the landscape pattern index was obtained. The ecological risk was divided into 5 levels by using the Jenks natural classification method, and each ecological risk grade area was counted. The research results show that: from year 2005 to year 2010, landscape ecological risk trend of the mining area is growing up;the trend rising area of landscape ecological risk is mainly in the southwest and northeast of the Shan Xin mining field;the area of higher and high ecological risk is increasing year by year;and the trend of dispersed development in space is obvious;the development trend of ecological risk in the mining area is rapidly increasing;in 2010 - 2015, the higher and high ecological risk area decrease slightly with the increasing of area of grassland and residential low vulnerability of landscape types;the ecological risk area showed a slow decreasing trend. The research results provide an objective reference for decision making of ecological environment governance.展开更多
Influence of distinct radiotherapy techniques to induce second cancer risks in left breast cancer. Material and methods: Ten female patients with intact left breast cancer. Two treatment plans for each patient: 1) two...Influence of distinct radiotherapy techniques to induce second cancer risks in left breast cancer. Material and methods: Ten female patients with intact left breast cancer. Two treatment plans for each patient: 1) two tangential beams 3D-Conformal radiotherapy, 2) intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) plan. Estimation of second cancer risk from Organ equivalent dose models (OEDs) in three dose-response model for organs at risk in left breast cases. Results: The P-value for OED models in 3D-IMRT for left lung, both lung, heart, right lung, right breast, thyroid, liver and spinal cord in linear dose model was 0.016, 0.005, 0.019, 3.95E-06, 5.79E-07, 0.003, 1.78E-10 and 0.000206475 respectively, for linear exponential dose model 0.0577, 0.024, 0.031, 3.40E-06, 3.28E-07, 0.003, 2.01E-10 and 0.000120072 respectively and in plateau dose model 0.088, 0.042, 0.039, 3.18E-06, 2.53E-07, 0.003, 2.27E-10 and 9.00535E-05 respectively. Conclusion: organ equivalent dose models for organs at risk increasing in IMRT than tangential beams.展开更多
In the radio frequency (RF) range concern about long-term health risks from electromagnetic fields (EMF) is enhanced by contradictory results and conclusions from epidemiologic studies. A new approach of a synoptic an...In the radio frequency (RF) range concern about long-term health risks from electromagnetic fields (EMF) is enhanced by contradictory results and conclusions from epidemiologic studies. A new approach of a synoptic analysis of all available data from epidemiological studies published since 2001 was performed. This approach provided new insight with regard to a potential link between mobile phone use and brain cancer. Two quite different data pools could be identified with numerous studies from one research group opposing all other studies. However, it could be shown that with the number of exposed cases both data pools exhibit a clear trend of risk estimates (odds ratios) towards the final result, namely a reduced cancer risk of OR = 0.8, though from either side of the zero-risk line. The analysis of potential long-term effects indicated by a dosedependence revealed diverging results with different dose metrics. Overall, the synoptic analysis supports reassuring rather than alarming conclusions on RF EMF health risks from mobile telecommunication.展开更多
Concern about brain cancer risks from mobile phone use, in particular of glioma, is mainly based on epidemiologic studies reporting on an increased risk estimate (odds ratio, OR) in particular of long-term and/or heav...Concern about brain cancer risks from mobile phone use, in particular of glioma, is mainly based on epidemiologic studies reporting on an increased risk estimate (odds ratio, OR) in particular of long-term and/or heavy users. Concern is enhanced by contradictory results and alarming conclusions from some epidemiologic studies. In a new synoptic approach all reported data from epidemiological studies published since 2001 were analyzed. This approach provided new insight with regard to the suspected link between mobile phone use and glioma. Two quite different data pools could be identified with numerous studies from one single research group opposing all other national and international studies. It could be shown that in spite of puzzling differences of their data pattern, in dependence of the number of exposed cases both data pools exhibit the similar trend of ORs towards reduced glioma risk with increasing statistical power, finally even converging towards a reduced risk, although from either side of the zero-risk line. While in the pooled data a potential long-term risk could be masked by reassuring short-term data the synoptic analysis in dependence of dose surrogates such as cumulated use time, cumulated call time or cumulated number of calls the seemingly increased long-term risk of glioma could be identified as an effect from low statistical power. In spite of worrying differences among some epidemiological studies, overall, the synoptic analysis of the entire body of data supports reassuring rather than alarming conclusions on glioma risks from mobile phone use even in long-term and/or heavy users.展开更多
In order to determine the pollution condition of heavy metal in Dazhai mellow-soil field,the content of Zn,Cr,Cu,Ni,Pb,As,Cd and Hg in this area were analyzed,the content of heavy metals in soils in Shanxi Soil Enviro...In order to determine the pollution condition of heavy metal in Dazhai mellow-soil field,the content of Zn,Cr,Cu,Ni,Pb,As,Cd and Hg in this area were analyzed,the content of heavy metals in soils in Shanxi Soil Environment Quality Standard and the secondary standard of National Soil Environment Quality Standard were used as evaluation standard. Based on the single factor index method,the result showed that the content of 8 heavy metals in soil didn't exceed the secondary standard of National Soil Environment Quality Standard,while the content of As,Hg,Ni,Pb exceeded Shanxi Soil Environment Quality Standard. The soil in the study areas reached high pollution of As,Hg,Pb,and the pollution index of Cu,Ni,Zn,Cd reached a high level. The potential ecological risk index order was Hg ﹥ Cd ﹥ As ﹥ Pb ﹥ Ni﹥ Cu ﹥ Zn ﹥ Cr. The pollution level risk intensity was mild. The correlation analysis indicated that Cr,Ni,Zn,Cu,Cd and As were probably from the same source,while Hg and other heavy metals were not correlated. Heavy metals with high levels of pollution were closely related to agricultural fertilization,tourism,transportation,construction,daily life and production activities.展开更多
基金Projects(51475254,51625503)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(MCM20150302)supported by the Joint Project of Tsinghua and China Mobile,ChinaProject supported by the joint Project of Tsinghua and Daimler Greater China Ltd.,Beijing,China
文摘Driving safety field(DSF) model has been proposed to represent comprehensive driving risk formed by interactions of driver-vehicle-road in mixed traffic environment. In this work, we establish an optimization model based on grey relation degree analysis to calibrate risk coefficients of DSF model. To solve the optimum solution, a genetic algorithm is employed. Finally, the DSF model is verified through a real-world driving experiment. Results show that the DSF model is consistent with driver's hazard perception and more sensitive than TTC. Moreover, the proposed DSF model offers a novel way for criticality assessment and decision-making of advanced driver assistance systems and intelligent connected vehicles.
文摘The stress field caused by faulting has an effect on the stability of the neighboring faults, and the study on the fault interaction has a close relation with the prediction of seismic risk. Stress field caused by the rectangle fault in the semi-infinite elastic medium is calculated on the basis of the elastic dislocation theory. The result shows that most of the successive large earthquakes, in the southwestern part of China and North China, occurred in the increasing area of shear stress S(xy) and the decreasing area of normal stress S(yy) The increasing of earthquake occurrence probability has a function relation with the increasing of stress. Earthquake triggering is resulted from the increasing of shear stress and the decreasing of normal stress. An activation coefficient A, of the earthquake is defined to express the change of seismic activity. The concrete risk region can be obtained through space scanning of At value. Finally, the fault interaction in a large scope is discussed in this paper.
文摘The risk of drinking water is greatly concerned because of the large amount of pesticide applied to paddy field and the contamination of drinking water sources due to the runoff. A mathematical model is developed, based on the mass balance, to predict the fate of paddy field pesticides from application, runoff and mixing in a river, taking account of the physical chemical properties and processes of volatilization, degradation, adsorption and desorption. The model is applied to a river basin in Japan to estimate the contaminant level of several popularly used pesticides at the water intakes. The health risk in drinking water induced by each pesticide concerned is estimated and evaluated by comparing with the acceptable daily intake values(ADI) and with that induced by trihalomethanes. An index to evaluate the total risk of all pesticides appearing in water is proposed. The methods for risk management are also discussed.
文摘In spite of 36 years epidemiologic research, there is still an ongoing controversy about a causal link between childhood leukemia (CL) and exposure to extremely low frequency (ELF) magnetic fields (MF). Public concern has been increased by the fact that ELF MF have been classified as possibly carcinogenic to humans (class 2B) while exposure limits still remain three orders of magnitudes above reported CL risk onset levels. In a new synoptic approach rather than few selected ORs, all reported epidemiological risk estimates (ORs) are analyzed, both pooled together as well as separated into sub-pools of different exposure metric as well as of high and low exposure levels. The results explain the worrying offset of ORs towards increased CL risk as well as the reported puzzling dose-response at low MF levels as an artifact caused by the small-number effect. The synoptic analysis clarifies that ORs critically depend on statistical power. With increasing statistical power ORs decrease and finally converge to and stay at zero risk. This is found consistently at the entire data pool as well as at all sub-pools related to investigated exposure parameters (wire code, distance to MF source, and magnetic field value). Former contradictory results can now be explained. The synoptic analysis provides convincing evidence that the risk of childhood leukemia is not increased by exposure to ELF magnetic fields. IARC’s classification of ELF MF needs revision.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71172124,71201124)Projects of the National Social Science Foundation of China(15GJ003-245)Science Foundation for The Youth Scholars of Xi'an Institute of High Technology and Science(2015QNJJ011)
文摘By applying man-machine-environment system engineering theory, safety risks on large scale field operation project have been evaluated in this article. The factors concerning with the man, machine and environment in system were proposed separately. The value for lowest indexs was determined by decision-making of expert group. The weights were calculated based on AHP, and then safety risk assessment in different layers was made. The results show that the assessment method is reasonable, and it is significant for large scale field operation project safety managerment.
基金Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(No.2005CB121107)the Innovation Research Group of National Basic Research Program of China(No.2005).
文摘Guanting Reservoir, one of the drinking water supply sources of Beijing, suffers from water eutrophication. It is mainly supplied by Guishui River. Thus, to investigate the reasons of phosphorus (P) loss and improve the P management strategies in Guishui River watershed are important for the safety of drinking water in this region. In this study, a Revised Field P Ranking Scheme (PRS) was developed to reflect the field vulnerability of P loss at the field scale based on the Field PRS. In this new scheme, six factors are included, and each one was assigned a relative weight and a determination method. The affecting factors were classified into transport factors and source factors, and, the standards of environmental quality on surface water and soil erosion classification and degradation of the China were used in this scheme. By the new scheme, thirty-four fields in the Guishui River were categorized as "low", "medium" or "high" potential for P loss into the runoff. The results showed that the P loss risks of orchard and vegetable fields were higher than that of corn and soybean fields. The source factors were the main factors to affect P loss from the study area. In the study area, controlling P input and improving P usage efficiency are critical to decrease P loss. Based on the results, it was suggested that more attention should be paid on the fields of vegetable and orchard since they have extremely high usage rate of P and high soil test of P. Compared with P surplus by field measurements, the Revised Field PRS was more suitable for reflecting the characteristics of fields, and had higher potential capacity to identify critical source areas of P loss than PRS.
文摘On the basis of study results of deep sounding in the Yanqing Huailai basin, the shallow active tectonics, palaeoseismic events, seismic activity, distribution of crustal stress field and other related data are combined to study the earthquake risk of the basin comprehensively. Meanwhile, the comparison of deep structures between the basin and some other earthquake regions such as the Xingtai area is made. It is thought that there is the background of deep structures for occurrence of moderate and strong earthquakes in the Yanqing Huailai basin and its periphery, and the possibility for an M =7 earthquake to occur there cannot be excluded.
文摘In this paper, introducing new remote sensing and geographic information technology to solve the problem of data collection and analysis, this makes the study of ecological risk assessment very quick and accurate. Taking the Shan Xin mining area of the tin mine in Lengshuijiang of Hunan Province as the research object, using the remote sensing image data of three periods in 2005, 2010 and 2015, the remote sensing image is classified carefully and the landscape classification map of the mining area is obtained. The ecological risk index is introduced and the ecological risk values are sampled and interpolated on the ArcGIS platform. The ecological risk spatial distribution map based on the landscape pattern index was obtained. The ecological risk was divided into 5 levels by using the Jenks natural classification method, and each ecological risk grade area was counted. The research results show that: from year 2005 to year 2010, landscape ecological risk trend of the mining area is growing up;the trend rising area of landscape ecological risk is mainly in the southwest and northeast of the Shan Xin mining field;the area of higher and high ecological risk is increasing year by year;and the trend of dispersed development in space is obvious;the development trend of ecological risk in the mining area is rapidly increasing;in 2010 - 2015, the higher and high ecological risk area decrease slightly with the increasing of area of grassland and residential low vulnerability of landscape types;the ecological risk area showed a slow decreasing trend. The research results provide an objective reference for decision making of ecological environment governance.
文摘Influence of distinct radiotherapy techniques to induce second cancer risks in left breast cancer. Material and methods: Ten female patients with intact left breast cancer. Two treatment plans for each patient: 1) two tangential beams 3D-Conformal radiotherapy, 2) intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) plan. Estimation of second cancer risk from Organ equivalent dose models (OEDs) in three dose-response model for organs at risk in left breast cases. Results: The P-value for OED models in 3D-IMRT for left lung, both lung, heart, right lung, right breast, thyroid, liver and spinal cord in linear dose model was 0.016, 0.005, 0.019, 3.95E-06, 5.79E-07, 0.003, 1.78E-10 and 0.000206475 respectively, for linear exponential dose model 0.0577, 0.024, 0.031, 3.40E-06, 3.28E-07, 0.003, 2.01E-10 and 0.000120072 respectively and in plateau dose model 0.088, 0.042, 0.039, 3.18E-06, 2.53E-07, 0.003, 2.27E-10 and 9.00535E-05 respectively. Conclusion: organ equivalent dose models for organs at risk increasing in IMRT than tangential beams.
文摘In the radio frequency (RF) range concern about long-term health risks from electromagnetic fields (EMF) is enhanced by contradictory results and conclusions from epidemiologic studies. A new approach of a synoptic analysis of all available data from epidemiological studies published since 2001 was performed. This approach provided new insight with regard to a potential link between mobile phone use and brain cancer. Two quite different data pools could be identified with numerous studies from one research group opposing all other studies. However, it could be shown that with the number of exposed cases both data pools exhibit a clear trend of risk estimates (odds ratios) towards the final result, namely a reduced cancer risk of OR = 0.8, though from either side of the zero-risk line. The analysis of potential long-term effects indicated by a dosedependence revealed diverging results with different dose metrics. Overall, the synoptic analysis supports reassuring rather than alarming conclusions on RF EMF health risks from mobile telecommunication.
文摘Concern about brain cancer risks from mobile phone use, in particular of glioma, is mainly based on epidemiologic studies reporting on an increased risk estimate (odds ratio, OR) in particular of long-term and/or heavy users. Concern is enhanced by contradictory results and alarming conclusions from some epidemiologic studies. In a new synoptic approach all reported data from epidemiological studies published since 2001 were analyzed. This approach provided new insight with regard to the suspected link between mobile phone use and glioma. Two quite different data pools could be identified with numerous studies from one single research group opposing all other national and international studies. It could be shown that in spite of puzzling differences of their data pattern, in dependence of the number of exposed cases both data pools exhibit the similar trend of ORs towards reduced glioma risk with increasing statistical power, finally even converging towards a reduced risk, although from either side of the zero-risk line. While in the pooled data a potential long-term risk could be masked by reassuring short-term data the synoptic analysis in dependence of dose surrogates such as cumulated use time, cumulated call time or cumulated number of calls the seemingly increased long-term risk of glioma could be identified as an effect from low statistical power. In spite of worrying differences among some epidemiological studies, overall, the synoptic analysis of the entire body of data supports reassuring rather than alarming conclusions on glioma risks from mobile phone use even in long-term and/or heavy users.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(30871483)
文摘In order to determine the pollution condition of heavy metal in Dazhai mellow-soil field,the content of Zn,Cr,Cu,Ni,Pb,As,Cd and Hg in this area were analyzed,the content of heavy metals in soils in Shanxi Soil Environment Quality Standard and the secondary standard of National Soil Environment Quality Standard were used as evaluation standard. Based on the single factor index method,the result showed that the content of 8 heavy metals in soil didn't exceed the secondary standard of National Soil Environment Quality Standard,while the content of As,Hg,Ni,Pb exceeded Shanxi Soil Environment Quality Standard. The soil in the study areas reached high pollution of As,Hg,Pb,and the pollution index of Cu,Ni,Zn,Cd reached a high level. The potential ecological risk index order was Hg ﹥ Cd ﹥ As ﹥ Pb ﹥ Ni﹥ Cu ﹥ Zn ﹥ Cr. The pollution level risk intensity was mild. The correlation analysis indicated that Cr,Ni,Zn,Cu,Cd and As were probably from the same source,while Hg and other heavy metals were not correlated. Heavy metals with high levels of pollution were closely related to agricultural fertilization,tourism,transportation,construction,daily life and production activities.