论我国地方政府债务风险的四大成因

积极防范和化解地方政府债务风险的前提是对风险的成因做出系统、合理的分析，以便"对症下药"。基于此，本文对我国地方政府债务风险的形成机理做了初步的系统分析，认为，目前我国地方政府债务风险的形成与我国经济体制的转轨、财政体制的转换、现行地方政府债务管理制度改革的滞后以及市场经济风险性的逐步显现等四大因素密切相关。

风险预警、地方政府性债务管理与财政风险监管体系催生

构建规范有序的地方政府性债务管理制度和风险预警机制是防范财政风险、实现政府债务融资健康发展的重要举措。我国地方政府性债务的快速扩张有其理性因素,不能轻易否定地方政府债务存在的合理性。地方政府投资范围过宽、事权和支出责任的非对称性、地方政府债务管理制度不健全构成地方政府负债融资的非理性因素。应深化体制改革,加快政府职能转变,调整政绩考核机制,继续深化政府间财政体制改革,逐步实现事权和支出责任相匹配;构建规范有序的地方政府性债务管理制度;有效构建地方政府性债务的风险预警和防范机制。

构建民间金融之市场准入与退出制度的思考

现行法律未对民间金融活动做前瞻性的规定,使其游离于正规金融制度之外,增加了金融风险。对两岸民间金融法律制度的考察与比较分析发现:建立民间金融的准入和退出制度,赋予民间金融合法地位并对其加强监管是民间金融健康发展的前提和保障。针对不同的民间金融主体,设立不同的准入制度,将破产制度、保险制度,以及国家信用制度引入民间金融退出机制,是降低民间金融风险行之有效的办法。

试论地方政府债务规模及风险化解方式

近年来,地方政府债务规模急剧增加,部分地方政府偿债压力较大,存在一定的债务风险。其主要是因为地方政府财权与事权不对称、政府投融资体制改革滞后和行政管理体制存在缺陷造成的。化解地方政府债务风险,应完善分税制财政体制,增强防范与化解地方政府债务风险的能力;推进地方政府投融资体制改革,建立经济社会风险分散化解机制;深化行政管理体制改革,强化地方政府债务管理监督,确保国家经济社会稳步发展。

新农村建设中民间金融风险的法律规制

农村民间金融在资金融通过程中,如果仅仅依靠信用等道德规范进行约束,没有相应的法律法规进行保护,缺乏必要的制度性保障,容易出现一定程度的金融风险。当前对于我国农村民间金融,绝对不能简单地否定或者取缔,应当发挥农村民间金融的优势,扬长避短,因势利导,促使成为正规金融的有力补充,促进农村经济发展。

高职贫困生助学贷款偿还机制分析

自1999年开展国家助学贷款工作至今,国家的助学贷款政策在实践中不断地健全和完善,但仍然有不尽人意的地方。本文从我国现行助学贷款的现状问题表现入手,在进行成因分析的基础上,提出关于高职贫困生助学贷款偿还机制的政策思考。

工业控制系统信息安全软件与监控综述

本文阐述工业控制系统信息安全软件与监控发展,介绍工业控制系统信息安全软件与监控架构,详细剖析工业控制系统现场设备层、现场控制层、过程监控层、制造执行系统(MES)层、企业管理层等各层信息安全软件与监控,并对工业控制系统信息安全软件与监控趋势进行分析。

构建农村最低生活保障制度责任的思考

风险社会理论体现了风险的社会性、制度性以及责任性等三个方面。根据该理论,分析出中国农村贫困人口规模庞大、贫困人口的社会归因性以及政府责任模糊性的结论,剖析了政府责任模糊的归因,驳斥了政府“政府财力有限”的观点,指出政府在农村最低生活保障制度的构建中应该承担全部责任、充当“运动员”角色。

我国地方债务风险隐患、成因及化解对策

当前,我国地方债务的规模已十分庞大,并呈现不断扩张的趋势,不但偿债压力大、债务结构不合理,而且债务隐性化趋势明显、管理混乱,存在较大的风险隐患。我国地方债务的累积及其风险的扩张,将阻碍经济发展方式的转变,降低经济发展质量,对私人投资产生"挤出效应",使经济保持较高的通胀率,引发高房价问题,不利于收入分配的改革,并恶化政府和金融体系的信用。地方债务风险的成因是多元的,包括财政体制、预算软约束、地方财政收入增长困难、投资拉动型的经济增长方式、政绩考核机制等。控制和化解地方债务风险,在短期可通过资产证券化、引进民间资本和出售地方国有资产方式快速筹集偿债资金以尽快偿债;在长期则必须进行实质性改革,如构建市场化的地方政府融资机制、转变政府职能、改革分税体制、加强中央政府对地方政府举债管理约束、建立债务风险预警机制等。

我国地方政府债务风险预警体系研究——以青岛市为例

近年来,我国地方政府性债务风险随着地方融资规模的不断扩大而日益显现。为全面、有效和持续监控地方政府债务风险状况,及时发现、防范和化解风险,亟需构建地方政府债务风险预警体系。本文针对我国地方政府性债务的举债主体以融资平台公司为主的现状,综合运用模糊综合评价法等定量分析方法,构建了地方政府和融资平台公司"两级双控"的债务风险预警体系,并以青岛市为样本进行了模拟应用分析。此外,文章就加强地方政府性债务管理和风险防控提出了相关政策建议。

Credit Spreads,Probability of Default and Debt Risk Measurement of Prefectural Governments in China:2014-2017

In this paper,the concepts of probability of default,loss given default and expected loss in the internal ratings-based approach are introduced into the measurement of local government debt risk.Based on issuing interest rate and credit spreads of provincial government bonds,the default probability models of general debt and special debt are constructed and estimated,and the general and special debt risk of 333 prefectural governments in China from 2014 to 2017 are estimated respectively,and their regional distribution and changes are analyzed.The conclusions are as follows:Both general and special debt risk are different among regions.In terms of vertical changes in 2014-2017,debt risk has increased on the whole,but this increase has been driven more by the increase in the size of the debt,with no significant change in the probability of default,and the debt risk is concentrated in a small number of prefectural governments.The general debt risk accounts for about two-thirds of the total debt risk,the special debt risk accounts for about one-third,and this proportion structure is basically unchanged in 2014-2017.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for governance and control of local debt risk.

Mainstreaming Decentralization and Collaboration in Disaster Risk Management:Insights from Coastal Bangladesh

Bangladesh is renowned in disaster risk reduction(DRR)for active involvement of community people and local disaster management institutions in DRR activities.Our study aimed to describe the disaster risk management(DRM)institutions and assess their functioning in six coastal unions across the three coastal zones of Bangladesh.Both qualitative and quantitative research approaches were used.The study focused on two key local institutions—the Union Disaster Management Committees(UDMCs)and the Cyclone Preparedness Program(CPP)—functioning at the union level in DRM.Such institutions have both horizontal and vertical collaborations with other institutions.However,we argue that the UDMCs'external dependencies in their functioning indicate their limited financial and administrative autonomy,which is a barrier to successfully institutionalizing disaster management.The results show that the CPP is the most successful program,markedly increasing the trust of the people in warning dissemination and evacuation efforts in the event of a cyclone.Although the adoption of decentralized risk management systems has resulted in significant progress in increased rate of evacuation and reduced death rate and damage,lack of funding and equipment,limited coordination between institutions,lack of skilled and knowledgeable workforce,and inappropriate power structures may reduce the effectiveness of DRR activities prior to,during,and following disasters.

The Governance of Local Government Debt from the Perspective of Fiscal and Financial Coordination:Evidence from Financial Markets

Theories based on fiscal guarantees cannot explain either the fact that the continuously decline in local fiscal resources has not significantly increased local government financing costs,or the fact that local government debt has been rising at a time of strict central government regulation.The theoretical and empirical analyses provided in this study show that it is the financial resources under local government control that provide the implicit guarantee for local government debt.Such financial resources lower local governments’financing costs but have the potential to lead to the contagion of financial risk through local government to the financial sector.Therefore,to look at the question solely in terms of either fiscal or financial sector guarantees will not be sufficient to resolve the problem of local government debt.The central government needs to coordinate fiscal and financial policies under a joint management framework in a way that rationally disperses and resolves the risks attached to local government debt and avoids the assumption of excessive risk by either sector.At the same time,close attention should be paid to local financial institutions’asset quality and their money market reputation to avoid the risk of contagion from local financial institutions to local public finance.

Governance of Violence Risk in Patients with Severe Mental Disorders:From a Case of a Schizophrenic’s Filicide

Schizophrenia is a chronic,prolonged illness with a significant tendency to relapse and a high disease burden.Patients are often affected by psychotic symptoms and commit violent assaults that manifest as criminal acts.At the same time,such patients generally have poor medication adherence,which also makes them more likely to commit crimes.In our case,a single mother with a history of psychiatric illness strangled her 4-year-old biological son to death with a rope,put the body in a bathtub and divided it,ate some of the victim’s organs;the results of her forensic mental health identification indicated she was in a period of illness at the time of the offense and did not have the competence for criminal responsibility.Medication adherence is an important factor affecting relapse in patients with schizophrenia.Although new medications have been introduced and researchers have been improving medication adherence through many ways such as patient education and family therapy since the 1980s,the level of medication adherence is still poor,with a nonadherence rate of about 50%.This report suggests that in practice,attention should be given to improving patients’medication adherence,guardians of patients and their communities should strengthen their monitoring and care,including knowing the patients’medication adherence and monitoring them to take their medication as prescribed,together with systematic psychotherapy for patients to prevent them from relapsing and committing violent attacks.Besides,when assessing the patient’s risk of violence,the realistic factors in crime motives and the impact of guardians(family)should be taken into account to evaluate the risk of violence objectively and comprehensively.A final point is that social support for patients with mental disorders and their families should be improved.

Stakeholder and Public Involvement in Risk Governance

Stakeholder involvement has been a major requirement for effective, efficient, and fair risk governance.Since risk management includes uncertain outcomes that affect different parts of the population to different degrees it is essential to integrate the knowledge, values, and interests of stakeholders into the risk policy making process.The article provides insights into how to structure and organize stakeholder participation and how to cope with the challenges of complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity. For each of the three challenges there is a need for specific input from stakeholders. The article describes these requirements and explains the formats that have been tested for providing this input to the risk governance process.

A New Method for Resource Allocation Optimization in Disaster Reduction and Risk Governance

How to allocate and use resources play a crucial role in disaster reduction and risk governance(DRRG).The challenge comes largely from two aspects: the resources available for allocation are usually limited in quantity; and the multiple stakeholders involved in DRRG often have conflicting interests in the allocation of these limited resources. Therefore resource allocation in DRRG can be formulated as a constrained multiobjective optimization problem(MOOP). The Pareto front is a key concept in resolving a MOOP, and it is associated with the complete set of optimal solutions. However, most existing methods for solving a MOOPs only calculate a part or an approximation of the Pareto front, and thus can hardly provide the most effective or accurate support to decisionmakers in DRRG. This article introduces a new method whose goal is to find the complete Pareto front that resolves the resource allocation optimization problem in DRRG.The theoretical conditions needed to guarantee finding a complete Pareto front are given and a practicable, ripplespreading algorithm is developed to calculate the complete Pareto front. A resource allocation problem of risk governance in agriculture is then used as a case study to test the applicability and reliability of the proposed method. The results demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method in terms of both solution quality and computational efficiency when compared with traditional methods.

“What is a Sociologist Doing Here?”An Unconventional People-Centered Approach to Improve Warning Implementation in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 recommends several actions for early warning systems(EWSs). However, there is a lack of information about their means of implementation. This article used institutional ethnography to analyze the 2012–2018 implementation of a national warning system in Brazil. The challenges related to daily activities, and the interdisciplinary works in the four axes of EWSs towards multi-hazard and people-centered approaches are discussed. This national experience is then discussed in the light of the global challenges of EWSs considering two main issues:(1) experiences of implementation and barriers related to people-centered warning systems;and(2)types of national/regional warning systems and hazards/threats that are being monitored as an important input for multi-hazard approaches. There are few multi-hazard warning systems in place and EWSs are focused on hydrometeorological hazards, mainly related to floods. The Sendai Framework needs to improve access to data and information, identify views from the frontline, consider political threats and vulnerabilities, and find ways to talk about disaster risk creation processes at a larger scale.

Carbon Emission Risk and Governance

Within the hazard and disaster risk research field, explicitly treating carbon emissions as a hazard remains rather nascent. Applying hazard and disaster risk research perspectives to seek new insights on integrated mitigation and adaptation approaches and policy measures is equally elusive. Since China’s pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, the ‘‘dual carbon” goals of carbon emission peaking and neutrality have stimulated nationwide attention, research, and policies and action plans.How to ensure that the transition pathways are on track and well-contextualized is one of the crucial challenges for policymakers and practitioners. This article examines the‘‘risks” of missing the carbon neutrality goal at a regional scale in China, denoted as Carbon Emission Risk(CER).Carbon emissions(CE) as hazard, combined with the human socioeconomic system as exposure and human living environment, constitute the regional carbon emission environmental risk system. The ‘‘risks” of missing(or achieving) the carbon neutrality target for any region at any time, the article argues, is essentially determined by the ratio of CE to carbon absorption(CA, for uptake and removal). These variables are modified by a broadly defined ‘‘vulnerability coefficient”(Cv) that embodies both the potential for changes(decreasing CE and increasing CA), and the uncertainties of measuring CE and CA. Thus,the ratio of CE to CA is a measure of reality at any moment of time, whereas Cv indicates the overall propensity or capacity for moving the CE/CA ratio towards 1, that is,realizing carbon neutrality. Based on our calculation, CER at the provincial level in eastern China is higher than in western China. The article also calls for strengthening CER research and summarizes key measures for carbon emission risk governance.

Insights on Chemical and Natech Risk Management in Japan and South Korea:A Review of Current Practices

A growing number of natural hazard-triggered technological accidents(Natech)has been reported by several researchers,and this trend is expected to continue due to climate change.As a result,some governments have initiated direct efforts to manage Natech risks,particularly in the United States and Europe.However,two surveys conducted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD)in 2009 and 2017 found that there was a lack of proper risk management and risk governance for Natech among OECD member states,including Japan and South Korea.This study aimed to identify relevant regulations and practical considerations for chemical and Natech risk management from government perspectives in Japan and South Korea.The article provides a review of the current state of risk management,emergency response,and risk communication on chemical and Natech risk management in the two countries,and concludes with a discussion of some of the issues that require improvement of the current chemical risk management.Current practices for chemical risk management in Japan and South Korea point to the possibility of improvements in dealing with the Natech risks.These practical lessons will be valuable for improving the capacity for dealing with challenges in chemical and Natech risk management.