Natural Disaster Risk Monitoring for Immovable Cultural Relics Based on Digital Twin

Natural disaster risk monitoring is an important task for disaster prevention and reduction.In the case of immovable cultural relics,however,the feedback mechanism,risk factors,monitoring logic,and monitoring indicators of natural disaster risk monitoring are complex.How to achieve intelligent perception and monitoring of natural disaster risk for immovable cultural relics has always been a focus and a challenge for researchers.Based on the analysis of the concepts and issues related to the natural disaster risk of immovable cultural relics,this paper proposes a framework for natural disaster risk monitoring for immovable cultural relics based on the digital twin.This framework focuses on risk monitoring,including the physical entities of natural disaster risk for immovable cultural relics,monitoring indicators,and virtual entity construction.A platform for monitoring the natural disaster risk of immovable cultural relics is proposed.Using the Puzhou Ancient City Site as a test bed,the proposed concept can be used for monitoring the natural disaster risk of immovable cultural relics at different scales.

Study of Commercial Bank Risk Monitoring Model in Individual Consumption Credit

With the development of individual consumption credit (ICC) in China, commercial banks have been exposed to more and more risks. The loan failure has been an important problem that the banking must face and revolve. This paper develops a factor system to explain how the borrower's risk is affected, and then establishes a risk monitoring model with AHP to pre-warn the banks how much the risk is.

Global Rainstorm Disaster Risk Monitoring Based on Satellite Remote Sensing

Methods of rainstorm disaster risk monitoring(RDRM)based on retrieved satellite rainfall data are studied.Due to significant regional differences,the global rainstorm disasters are not only affected by geography(such as topography and surface properties),but also by climate events.It is necessary to study rainstorm disaster-causing factors,hazard-formative environments,and hazard-affected incidents based on the climate distribution of precipitation and rainstorms worldwide.According to a global flood disaster dataset for the last 20 years,the top four flood disaster causes(accounting for 96.8%in total)related to rainstorms,from most to least influential,are heavy rain(accounting for 61.6%),brief torrential rain(16.7%),monsoonal rain(9.4%),and tropical cyclone/storm rain(9.1%).A dynamic global rainstorm disaster threshold is identified by using global climate data based on 3319 rainstorm-induced floods and rainfall data retrieved by satellites in the last 20 years.Taking the 7-day accumulated rainfall,3-and 12-h maximum rainfall,24-h rainfall,rainstorm threshold,and others as the main parameters,a rainstorm intensity index is constructed.Calculation and global mapping of hazard-formative environmental factor and hazard-affected body factor of rainstorm disasters are performed based on terrain and river data,population data,and economic data.Finally,a satellite remote sensing RDRM model is developed,incorporating the above three factors(rainstorm intensity index,hazard-formative environment factor,and hazard-affected body factor).The results show that the model can well capture the rainstorm disasters that happened in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China and in South Asia in 2020.

Thoughts of a travelling ecologist 14. Structure-function conflation in environmental risk assessment and monitoring

Recently,I attended a conference organised by the European Food Safety Authority in the beautiful and prosperous Italian city of Parma.The overall topic of the conference was risk assessment,and the program included a section on aspects of environmental risk assessment.In various areas,including the evalution of the effects of pesticide applications,invasive organisms or genetically modified plants(Arpaia et al.,2014)preparing an environmental risk assessment is an obviously relevant exercise.

The Role of the National Significant Seismic Monitoring and Protection Regions Institution:From the Perspective of the RiskSociety Theory

Earthquake disaster risk,as a typical social disaster risk,is one of the most important risks in modern Chinese society.This study gives definitions of the institution,describes the formation history,the connotations and development and analyzes its role in the control of major social risks caused by earthquakes.Finally,the paper presents recommendations for continuous improvement of this institution under the guidance of risk society theory,and for its application to the government reform and social governance.

2022年青岛市食品安全风险监测结果分析

目的:了解青岛市食品中的主要污染物以及有害因素的污染现状,及时发现食品安全隐患。方法:按照《2022年青岛市食品安全风险监测实施方案》及《国家食品污染和有害因素风险监测工作手册》中的相关规定进行采样、检测。结果:2022年共监测8大类食品,采集共980份样品,合格率为95.00%。其中,化学污染物与有害因素监测合格率为91.30%,食源性致病菌监测合格率为98.01%。结论:青岛市食品安全水平保持稳定向好,但仍然存在食品安全隐患,较为突出的问题为海产品中的重金属污染。

湖南省2023年5—6月跨省调入饲养用牛羊追溯调查与布鲁氏菌病监测

为评估分析外省份调入湖南省饲养用牛羊引入布鲁氏菌病(以下简称“布病”)的风险,对“湖南省动物卫生监督信息平台”2023年5—6月跨省调入饲养用牛羊开展监测排查,并就其来源、去向及布病检测结果等进行调查统计。结果显示:全省共调入饲养用牛羊270批次12850头/只,涉及19个省/自治区/直辖市,其中13个省份为原布病防控一类地区;有164批次牛羊来源于布病免疫区,占60.74%;有96批次牛羊实际用于继续饲养,占35.56%;采集牛羊血清样品1396份,检出布病抗体阳性7份。结果表明,湖南省存在牛羊布病输入性风险,应加大调运监管力度,减少牛羊布病从高风险地区向低风险地区传播的风险。

高校实验室安全风险监控融合预警与数字化决策系统

高校实验室风险点与危险源密集,人机环管因素持续变化,且人员流动快、前沿探索多,导致风险隐患动态识别难、预判预警精准度不高、风险管控精细化水平不足。围绕实验室安全风险精准辨识与快速响应这一关键问题,基于实验室安全风险—隐患—事故演化规律,建立安全风险监测监控指标体系,运用物联网、人工智能、大数据分析等技术,开发安全隐患视频图像智能辨识算法,研发多源信息感知融合分析技术,研究应急响应辅助决策方法,从而构建“云边端”一体化的融合监控预警与数字化决策系统,并在学校安全工程学院实验室应用。实践表明,该系统能够对实验室进行全时间—空间—要素的多维度持续覆盖,及时发现风险隐患并有效应急响应,有助于提升实验室安全风险管控与应急能力,具有一定推广应用价值。

Managing Public Health Risks Using Air Monitoring at a Former Manufactured Gas Plant Site

Monitoring emissions from a former Manufactured Gas Plant (MGP) site during remediation was used to manage risks associated with inhalation of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) and contaminated particulates acting as an exposure conduit for Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals. This risk management case study presents a USEPA-approved air monitoring program implemented to manage public health risks during remediation at a former MGP site located in the southeast United States. Risk-based Acceptable Air Concentrations (AACs) were developed and a sampling regimen established to monitor potential emissions to maintain contaminant concentrations below the AACs. The exposure duration used was based on a twelve-month project duration and an exposure time of 24 hours per day;equations, toxicity values and sources were based on USEPA’s Regional Screening Levels. A total 535 twenty-four hour time weighted samples (269 VOC samples and 266 PAH samples) were collected over the project duration. Only minor levels of VOCs and PAHs were detected and no results were above the AACs. These timeweighted averages demonstrate that the real-time air monitoring and control measures implemented at the site effectively maintained concentrations below the AACs and were protective of public health.

城市生命线安全运行风险监测及响应研究

本文介绍了城市生命线建设背景,分析其运行风险。阐述了城市生命线安全运行风险监测的感知系统及应用平台的构建。研究了风险预警的研判分析及协同处置流程,实现了风险事件及时高效的响应处置。

基于美欧医疗器械上市后法规要求对我国建立医疗器械警戒制度的思考

本文旨在深入探讨美国和欧盟的医疗器械上市后监管制度,包括风险监管理念、监管法规体系、上市后临床研究、质量管理体系等,总结出开发风险监测工具、落实风险管理、采用合并报告模式、公开风险信息等经验,为我国医疗器械行业有序发展提供参考。我国可以借鉴美欧医疗器械上市后的监管实践,从提高监管机构能力、建设监测哨点和强化法规框架等方面,建立和试点医疗器械警戒制度。

食品风险监测中农药残留的检测技术研究

随着现代农业的发展,农药在作物保护中发挥着重要作用,但随之而来的农药残留问题也引发了广泛关注。农药残留不仅影响食品质量,还可能对人体健康造成潜在威胁。因此,对农药残留进行准确、高效的检测成为食品风险监测的重要一环。本文概述了农药残留的来源及其对食品安全的潜在危害。系统梳理了当前农药残留检测技术的种类及其特点。

工作欠载对煤矿监检人员风险感知能力的影响研究

为探究煤矿监检人员工作欠载对风险感知能力的影响机制,首先引入无聊倾向和心智游移作为中介变量,构建四者的链式中介模型;然后采用工作欠载、无聊倾向、心智游移以及风险感知能力4种量表制成结构化问卷,定量研究263名煤矿监检人员问卷样本,并通过Pearson相关性分析和中介效应检验验证样本数据。结果表明:工作欠载直接负向影响煤矿监检人员的风险感知能力;工作欠载还会通过无聊倾向、心智游移的独立中介效应,以及无聊倾向和心智游移的链式中介效应影响人员的风险感知能力。因此,及时发现并干预监检人员的工作欠载、无聊倾向和心智游移情形,能够有效提升其风险感知能力,预防事故的发生。

基于目标与活动风险的关键链项目缓冲监控周期确定方法

经典研究假设随时能够得到缓冲的消耗状态,但在项目实际执行的过程中很难实现,且监控次数过多会导致项目偏离计划。为保证每一次缓冲监控都能够有利于项目实施,本文提出了一种基于项目目标和活动风险确定监控周期的方法。不同项目对工期、成本、质量的侧重点不同,利用工期与成本、工期与质量之间的关系,根据不同的侧重点确定合适的监控频次。再根据每项活动的风险大小分配监控次数,活动的风险越大需分配到的监控次数越多,从而确定每项活动的监控周期,使项目在有限次的缓冲监控下实现效益最优。最后利用Matlab进行蒙特卡洛模拟实验,结果表明,与对比方法相比,所提方法能在满足项目质量要求的前提下,缩短项目工期并降低成本。

左氧氟沙星致心律失常的发生特点和危险因素分析

目的 了解大样本住院人群中左氧氟沙星致心律失常的发生特点、临床表现和相关危险因素。方法 借助“临床药品不良事件主动监测与智能评估警示系统-Ⅱ”(ADE-ASAS-Ⅱ),回顾性监测2019年使用左氧氟沙星的住院患者电子病历信息,获得发生心律失常患者的相关数据,采用倾向性评分匹配法选取未发生心律失常患者,通过单因素和多因素条件logistic回归分析左氧氟沙星导致心律失常的危险因素。结果12 879例使用左氧氟沙星人群的相关心律失常发生率为1.64%,其中65岁及以上人群发生率为3.22%;主要表现为期外收缩(0.84%)、心动过速(0.63%)、QT间期延长(0.44%),无尖端扭转型室性心动过速和室颤等严重心律失常。多因素条件logistic回归分析结果显示,用药疗程较长[OR=1.030,95%CI(1.009,1.050),P=0.004]和静脉给药[OR=2.392,95%CI(1.478,3.870),P <0.001]是左氧氟沙星致心律失常的独立危险因素。结论 左氧氟沙星引起的心律失常较为常见,分布类型多样,其中QT间期延长为偶见;临床应用时,应更多关注静脉用药的老年患者,并尽量避免长疗程用药。

数字化转型背景下金融风险监测与预警体系研究

当前,我国金融业数字化转型从多点突破进入深化和高质量发展的新阶段,需要协调包括管理部门、企业、个人在内的多元主体形成协同共治机制;针对数字化转型背景下产生的新型、复杂、潜在危害突出的金融风险问题,构建并提升金融风险监测与预警能力以切实保障金融安全,是金融业需要关注和亟待解决的核心课题。本文通过文献调研、理论分析等方式,分析了我国金融业数字化转型的进展、新型金融风险的内涵及特征,梳理了国内外主流的金融风险监测与预警技术进展,研判了金融风险监测与预警体系面临的风险表征识别、风险传导追踪、风险推理评估等方面的突出问题,提出了数字化转型背景下金融风险监测与预警体系的总体框架、创新研究方法、提升路径。研究发现,数字化转型背景下金融风险具有更新迭代更快、风险频次更高、隐蔽性更强等新特征,现有金融风险监测与预警技术在应对新型金融风险时存在诸多不足,面临着风险难表征、难追踪、难评估等诸多挑战。为此建议,加强行业协同、构建金融数据跨业共享标准,总结历史经验、形成金融风险知识表征范式与金融风险跨业传导机制,深化人工智能应用、构建金融风险监测与预警大模型,以提高我国金融风险防范水平、维护国家金融安全。

黑龙江省农业微生物发展困境及振兴对策

农业微生物是农业生产、农产品加工、农业生物技术和农业生态环境保护等领域中应用的微生物的总称。它们在物质转化和能量循环中发挥着关键作用,并被认为是推动农业产业高质量发展的关键引擎。为实现农业微生物产业和科学研究的可持续发展,从推动农业微生物行业振兴的角度,阐述了农业微生物在应用领域、技术发展、资源保护和菌种保藏方面的研究现状,提出了农业微生物研究面临多方面的问题,包括知识产权风险、科研创新水平不高、监管监测体系不完善,以及缺乏农业微生物信息数据库等。从而提出了进一步加强黑龙江省农业微生物行业振兴的对策建议,即开展系统性科学攻关、加强生物安全实验室平台建设、促进形成产业集群、加强政策保障等。

基于PS-InSAR技术的晋城矿区地表形变监测及地质灾害风险预警

地表形变是一种严重的地质灾害现象,不仅严重影响灾害区居民的日常生活,而且会造成巨大的社会经济危害,尤其在采煤区。针对传统地表沉陷监测方法费时费力、无法获取地表沉降面状信息、难以进行地表沉陷灾害评估的不足,基于高分辨率SAR卫星影像,利用永久散射体合成孔径雷达干涉测量(PS-InSAR)技术对山西省晋城市晋城矿区2018年1月至2018年12月期间地表沉陷进行监测,分析获取了该地区地表连续形变情况,并利用该技术获取的海量PS点建立支持向量机(SVM)地质灾害风险评估预警模型,对晋城矿区周边居民点地质灾害风险进行了识别和预测。结果表明:晋城矿区10个煤矿及其周边区域存在较大的地表形变;晋城矿区平均LOS向年平均地表形变速率范围为-37~30.3 mm/a;PS-InSAR技术在晋城矿区地表形变监测中具有可行性,且可以实现矿区地质灾害风险综合识别和预警。