Simulation-based automatic generation of risk scenarios

A methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios is presented.Its main idea is to let the system model ＂express itself＂ through simulation.This is achieved by having the simulation model driven by an elaborated simulation engine,which：（i） manipulates the generation of branch points,i.e.event occurrence times;（ii） employs a depth-first systematic exploration strategy to cover all possible branch paths at each branch point.In addition,a backtracking technique,as an extension,is implemented to recover some missed risk scenarios.A widely discussed dynamic reliability example（a holdup tank） is used to aid in the explanation of and to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Simulation and uniform design-based automatic generation of risk scenarios

This paper presents a methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios for dynamic reliability applications in which some dynamic characteristics(e.g.,the order,timing and magnitude of events,the value of relevant process parameters and initial conditions) have a significant influence on the evolution of the system.The main idea of the methodology is:(i) making the system model "express itself" through simulation by having the model driven by an elaborated simulation engine;(ii) exploiting uniform design to pick out a small subset of representative design points from the space of relevant dynamic characteristics;(iii) for each selected design point,employing a depth-first systematic exploration strategy to cover all possible scenario branches at each branch point.A highly dynamic example adapted from the literature(a chemical batch reactor) is studied to test the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Event Scenario Analysis for the Design of Rockslide Countermeasures

The Torgiovannetto quarry(Assisi municipality,central Italy) is an example of a site where the natural equilibrium was altered by human activity,causing current slope instability phenomena which threaten two roadways important for the local transportation.The quarry front,having a height of about 140 m,is affected by a 182,000 m3 rockslide developed in intensely fractured limestone and is too large to be stabilized.In 2003 some tension cracks were detected in the vegetated area above the quarry upper sector.From then on,several monitoring campaigns were carried out by means of different instrumentations(topographic total station,extensometers,inclinometers,ground-based interferometric radar,laser scanner and infrared thermal camera),allowing researchers to accurately define the landslide area and volume.The latter's major displacements are localized in the eastern sector.The deformational field appears to be related to the seasonal rainfall.The landslide hazard associated with the worst case scenario was evaluated in terms of magnitude,intensity and triggering mechanism.For the definition of the possible runout process the DAN 3D code was employed.The simulation results were used in order to design and construct a retaining embankment.Furthermore,in order to preserve both the safety of the personnelinvolved in its realization and of the roadways users,an early warning system was implemented.The early warning system is based on daily-averaged displacement velocity thresholds.The alarm level is reached if the prediction based on the methods of Saito(1969) and Fukuzono(1985) forecasts an imminent rupture.

Projected Flood Risks in China Based on CMIP5

Based on the simulations of 22 CMIP5 models in combination with socio-economic data and terrain elevation data,the spatial distribution of risk levels of flood disaster and the vulnerability to flood hazards in China are projected under the RCP8.5 for the near term period(2016–2035), medium term period(2046–2065) and long term period(2080–2099),respectively. The results show that regions with high flood hazard levels are mainly located in Southeast China, while the vulnerability to flood hazards is high in eastern China. Under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenario, future high flood risk levels will mainly appear in the eastern part of Sichuan, in major part of East China, and in the provinces of Hebei, Beijing, and Tianjin. The major cities in Northeast China, some areas in Shaanxi and Shanxi, as well as the coastal areas in southeastern China will also encounter high flood risks. Compared with the baseline period, the regional flood risk levels will increase towards the end of the 21 st century, although the occurrences of floods change little. Due to the coarse resolution of the climate models and the indistinct methodology for determining the weight coefficients,large uncertainty still exists in the projection of flood risks.

自动驾驶汽车行驶风险评估方法综述

行驶风险评估对自动驾驶系统的安全运行至关重要。将现有行驶风险评估方法分为3类,包括面向单一目标物的、基于可达集的和基于势场论的评估方法。提出5个评价维度,包括计算实时性、结果时效性、应用可行性、内容充分性和场景泛用性,对评估方法进行了全面比较,揭示其特点和适用情况。对自动驾驶行驶风险评估面临的问题以及未来发展趋势进行了分析和展望。

ChatGPT技术在生物医药领域的应用潜力与风险

本文系统梳理了ChatGPT的发展历程与现状,分析ChatGPT技术与生物医药领域的耦合情况。从知识创新与模型创新两个维度,划分生物医药领域ChatGPT技术应用的类型,并分析其应用焦点、应用场景和特征;从科学研究与消费终端应用的角度阐述各项ChatGPT技术类型在生物医药领域中的应用价值;剖析各项ChatGPT技术类型在生物医药领域中存在的潜在风险。ChatGPT技术将加快生物医药领域的研究与服务,扩大而非取代研究人员的专业知识。未来应加强微调挖掘型GPT工具与部署型服务设施的建设,推动ChatGPT技术在生物医药领域的有效应用。

Seismic Risk Assessment of Buildings in the Extended Urban Region of Athens and Comparison with the Repair Cost

A complete research of seismic risk assessment is presented herein focused on the existing build- ings of the extended urban region of Athens in Greece. The seismic risk assessment is fulfilled by discriminating the current study in two approaches, probable and actual, conducting afterwards between them a comparison analysis. In the first part, a pilot methodology is developed for the seismic loss assessment in monetary terms regarding the buildings damages, consistent with the National Programme for Earthquake Management of Existing Buildings (NPEMEB). The building stock consists of typical building types of Southern Europe and refers to 750,085 buildings (18.80% of buildings in Greece) situated in the entire region of Athens according to the results of the 2000-1 statistical census. A wider research of seismic risk assessment could include direct losses of infrastructures and indirect economic losses. The evaluation of loss due to building damage in a certain region requires an assessment of both seismic hazard and vulnerability of the building stock in the study area. Four different existing damage scenarios are applied for the vulnerability assessment. The results of the seismic risk assessment for the four different aspects of the es- timated damage and the different soil conditions are presented in a map of the study region. The existing vulnerability curves corresponding to defined types of buildings have been derived from the National Technical Chamber of Greece and also from recently developed DPMs. The last DPMs were obtained in a previous research (Eleftheriadou, 2009) from the process of a created damage database after the 7th of September 1999 Parnitha’s earthquake and comprised 180,945 buildings which developed damage of varying degree, type and extent. In the second part of the research, the seismic risk is evaluated from the available data regarding the mean statistical repair/ strengthening or replacement cost for the total number of damaged structures (180,427 buildings) after the same (1999 Parnitha’s) seismic event. Data regarding the compatible (budget approved according to the ministry’s provisions) repair cost has been collected. The structural losses in monetary terms for the 180,427 buildings damaged structures are evaluated equal to 2450.0 Μ€, 1887.8 Μ€ and 2118.9 Μ€ based on the previously mentioned statistical seismic risk data. The statistically derived repair cost for Attica is compared with the results of the economic loss esti- mation for buildings using the aforementioned risk assessment methodology. From the analysis results, the seismic scenario based on the recently developed DPMs (Eleftheriadou, 2009) pre- sented the better correlation (2627.77 M€) with the total statistically evaluated repair cost (2450.02 M€). It is important to stress that the inclusion of the coefficient parameter S overes- timates significantly the seismic losses. The last result should be taken into consideration in future risk researches. The comparison of the estimated economic loss with the statistical repair cost calibrates the reliability of the commonly used risk assessment method and serves in the im- provement of seismic security prioritizing the criteria for seismic rehabilitation programmes of existing buildings.

基于情景模拟标准的电动滑板车安全风险场景再现构建

基于国家标准《消费品安全危害识别情景模拟法》(GB/T 39108-2020)中的相关规定,通过相关软件与硬件搭建电动滑板车风险分析平台,模拟场景设计、执行测评、数据收集和结果分析等过程,分析了电动滑板车风险试验系统的构建过程,为后续电动滑板车的风险分析提供理论依据和试验平台。

Earthquake risk assessment for Istanbul metropolitan area

The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associ- ated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies.In urban centers,the seismic risk is best quantified and portrayed through the preparation of'Earthquake Damage and Loss Scenarios.'The components of such scenarios are the assessment of the hazard,inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk.For the development of the earthquake risk scenario in Istanbul,two independent approaches,one based on intensities and the second on spectral displacements,are utilized.This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study,highlight the method- ology,discuss the results and provide insights to future developments.

A Risk-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Approach to Evaluating Transboundary Water Development—The Case of Lower Mekong River Basin

The Lower Mekong River basin (LMB) covers the lower part of the Mekong river basin, including Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. Due to numerous pressures from high population growth and intensive hydropower development, the LMB has been facing significant challenges concerning its biodiversity and ecosystem. In 2017, Mekong River Commission (MRC), an intergovernmental organisation founded in 1995 among LMB countries, established the Council Study, which analysed the impacts of water development scenarios concerning the environmental, socioeconomic aspects of the LMB. This paper explores the nature of risks to the LMB water development and subsequently evaluates LMB’s water development scenarios described in the Council Study by using a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. MCDA method has been widely applied in the field of water resource management in order to assist the decision-making process by systematically evaluating a certain number of alternatives against well-selected criteria through a preference rating scheme. By implementing a risk-based comprehensive assessment of the LMB transboundary water, this study provides insights into the impacts of the increasing risks to the ecosystem and human beings on the water development of the basin over time, which assists to change the awareness and the perspective toward humans’ risks and transboundary river ecosystem of decision-makers. This paper provides valuable recommendations for MRC to improve their policy concerning benefit-sharing scheme, water planning and risk mitigation strategies.

论人形机器人治理中的刑法归责

随着机器人和人工智能技术的快速发展,作为具身智能的人形机器人在应用场景上逐渐拓宽,同时也形成了多元而复杂的安全风险和刑法归责难题。理论上主要存在代理责任、过失责任、严格责任、独立责任四种各有利弊的刑法归责模式。除了严格责任之外,其余模式都可以统合在场景化的刑法归责体系之中。在当前人工智能的发展阶段,传统的刑法教义学原理可以处理绝大部分的机器人刑法归责问题,不过也应在新的技术条件下对可容许风险、信赖原则予以新的推演和发展。取决于未来的技术进展,在功能主义的视角下,将来可以考虑有条件地肯定智能人形机器人独立责任主体地位的可能性。人形机器人的刑法归责体系,应当对其他法秩序的规范评价和机器人伦理标准的探讨保持协同和开放。

城市数字治理:逻辑框架、风险情景与优化策略

城市数字治理是数字技术嵌入,重塑城市治理体系,强化城市治理能力的过程。作为一个理论与政策实践相结合的重要命题,研究城市数字治理问题不仅要考虑其自身蕴含的学理逻辑,也要能够反映国情现实并体现政策导向。通过构建“目标—行动—保障”的城市数字治理逻辑框架,分析城市数字治理存在公共服务领域的“数字技术偏见”风险、组织实施领域的“数字技术依赖”风险和行为规范领域的“数字技术滥用”风险,提出统筹“总量”与“结构”、“工具”与“人为”、“法治”与“伦理”,提升城市数字治理的服务水平、协同水平和规范水平的优化策略。

考虑风险和碳交易机制的微电网分布鲁棒优化调度

提高微电网风电的消纳能力是实现双碳目标的重要手段。该文构建了一种考虑极限场景和净负荷条件风险价值的微电网低碳分布鲁棒优化模型。首先,针对源-荷不确定性构造基于Wasserstein距离的概率分布模糊集,并考虑极限场景修正该模糊集,以提高模糊集的鲁棒性,减少场景数目,提高求解效率。其次,以包括供能成本、阶梯式碳交易成本和风险成本的微电网日运行成本最小为优化目标,建立分布鲁棒优化调度模型,并利用分段线性近似法和对偶理论将模型转换为线性规划问题求解。最后,通过算例仿真进行验证,结果表明,考虑极限场景的分布鲁棒优化方法具有较强的鲁棒性;引入阶梯式碳交易成本可以有效减少微电网的碳排放量,并提高风电的消纳能力;净负荷条件风险价值可以有效平衡微电网运行的经济性与风险性。

生成式人工智能赋能智慧图书馆创新的实现策略和风险挑战

文章阐述了生成式人工智能赋能智慧图书馆建设可以极大地提升用户体验,为图书馆服务创新带来无限可能,但也面临着风险挑战。图书馆在积极寻求技术赋能的同时要保持审慎的态度,在充分尊重用户隐私和保障用户信息安全的基础上发展适用于图书馆需求的智慧化服务创新,规避技术背后的安全风险。

民用飞机应急场景分析与建模方法

按照基于场景的民用飞机系统工程正向研制过程,为确保在飞机研制早期需求捕获与功能分析的完整性,针对应急场景开展识别、分析与建模方法研究。分析在飞机研制早期考虑应急场景的必要性,给出应急场景的定义和范围;针对民用飞机不同运行阶段,开展基于外部风险事件的应急场景识别,给出不同阶段的外部风险事件,并按照外部风险事件在不同阶段的演化结果给出相应的应急场景清单;研究形成一种基于DoDAF的应急场景建模方法,选取典型应急场景,形成应急场景建模的典型案例。通过对民用飞机应急场景分析与建模方法研究,形成可参考的外部风险清单和应急场景清单,同时形成面向应急场景的建模技术途径,为面向安全保证、基于应急场景的需求捕获与初步机组应急操作程序定义奠定基础。

基于脆弱性曲线的寿溪河流域村镇建筑洪灾风险评估

以寿溪河流域的村镇建筑为研究对象,采用MIKE FLOOD耦合水动力模型计算洪水淹没特征,结合结构静力学原理与洪水冲击荷载经验公式,建立村镇建筑的洪灾脆弱性曲线,开展洪灾风险评估。结果表明,寿溪河流域洪水淹没范围呈狭长的条状,洪水流速较大。低重现期下房屋以中低风险为主,高重现期下高风险与极高风险房屋主要分布在洪水发生点、洪水淹没区以及河坝村附近。建立的脆弱性曲线考虑了洪水流速的影响,能较好地刻画村镇建筑的结构损伤程度。

新疆叶尔羌河流域景观生态风险评价及预测

景观生态风险评价是衡量一定范围内生态系统安全的重要手段。以叶尔羌河流域为研究区,综合Markov-PLUS模型与景观生态风险评价指数,分析并预测土地利用与景观生态风险的演变特征及未来多情景下的变化趋势,划分风险重点管理区域。结果表明:(1)2005—2020年叶尔羌河流域耕地、水体与建设用地增加,林地、草地与未利用地减少。2035年Ⅰ情景下土地利用遵循历史发展模式变化。相较于Ⅰ情景,Ⅱ情景下耕地增加,其他地类减少;Ⅲ情景下林地、草地与水体增加,耕地、建设用地与未利用地减少。(2)2005—2035年叶尔羌河流域景观生态风险整体呈上升趋势,空间分布呈“西南部低、东北部高”的特征。风险恶化区主要聚集在海拔较低的冲积平原,风险保持区主要分布在海拔较高的山地与冰川。(3)较Ⅰ情景与Ⅱ情景而言,Ⅲ情景景观生态风险指数均值较小,是未来流域实现生态保护和经济发展双赢的最优情景。(4)叶尔羌河流域东北部冲积平原为稳定高风险区,冲积平原边缘与西部山地为风险易变区,南部山地与冰川为风险增加滞后区。研究结果可为当地景观生态安全格局优化与生态风险防范或降低提供参考。

面向车载相机采集图像的智能汽车测试场景关键性量化模型

车载相机图像是构建智能汽车测试场景库的主要数据来源,但其中关键测试场景发生概率低,大部分场景的测试价值小,若将其直接应用于智能汽车测试会浪费大量测试资源。本文提出一种面向车载相机采集图像的智能汽车测试场景关键性量化模型。首先,基于实车相机参数对实车采集的图像进行处理,输出对行车安全具有影响的参数;其次,基于风险场理论将参数整合,输出测试场景关键性量化结果;最后,对实车采集的图像进行测试场景关键性量化验证,结果表明本文模型可以精确输出测试场景关键性的具体数值,进而对比不同场景的测试价值,证明本文提出的模型可以有效筛选智能汽车关键测试场景。

机构投资者博彩行为的传染——基金竞争网络与彩票型股票资产配置

本文以我国2005—2021年开放式股票型与混合型基金重仓持股数据为研究样本,通过三维空间模型构建基金竞争网络,实证检验了基金竞争网络对基金经理彩票型股票资产配置的影响。研究发现,同业基金在彩票型股票资产配置上呈现出显著的一致性,意味着基金经理倾向于学习与模仿同业基金的彩票型股票资产配置策略。上述结论在考虑了外围基金的持仓变动、市场信息等因素的影响后依旧成立。潜在机制表明,在竞争激烈的环境中,基金经理面临更大的解雇风险,促使其博彩偏好上升,从而趋向于学习与模仿同业基金的彩票型资产配置策略。异质性分析表明,同业基金对彩票型资产配置策略的模仿行为存在“家族效应”与“同城效应”。该模仿行为与基金经理的性别、学历等个人特征相关,且在调仓情景下更显著。拓展性分析发现,同业竞争引致的彩票型资产配置可能进一步引发股价崩盘风险。本文为监管层理解机构投资者的博彩行为、制定合理的市场竞争机制提供了有益参考。

基于PLUS模型的长株潭都市圈景观生态风险动态分析

基于土地利用数据和景观生态风险评价模型,分析2000—2020年长株潭都市圈景观生态风险时空演变特征,结合PLUS模型科学预测自然发展情景和生态保护情景下2030年长株潭都市圈的景观生态风险空间分布格局。结果表明:①2000—2020年长株潭都市圈景观生态风险呈现北高南低、西高东低的空间分布特征,较低和中等生态风险区域总面积占比大于60%,生态风险加剧区域面积不到生态风险降低区域面积的1%,整体表现出高等级生态风险区向低等级生态风险区转移的特征;②研究区景观生态风险表现出较强的空间集聚特征,高—高集聚区主要分布在宁乡市、望城区、渌口区、雨花区和长沙县,低—低集聚区主要分布在研究区边界;③相比自然发展情景,生态保护情景下生态用地减少速率变缓,有助于缓解研究区生态风险,有利于构建和谐有序的生态安全格局。