The Credit Risk Assessment Model of Internet Supply Chain Finance: Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model with the Principle of Variable Weight

The characteristics of the financing model are firstly analyzed when the e-commerce enterprises participate in the supply chain finance. Internet supply chain finance models are divided into three categories with the standard of whether the electronic commerce enterprises provide funds for small and medium enterprises instead of banks. And then we further study the financing process and the functions of the e-commerce platform with specific examples. Finally, combined with the characteristics of the supply chain finance model, we set up a small and medium enterprises credit evaluation model based on the principle of variable weight with its dynamic data. At the same time, a multi-time points and multi-indicators decision-making method based on the principle of variable weight is proposed and a specific example is presented. In this paper, the multi-criteria decision-making model with the principle of variable weight has been used two times. At last, a typical case has been analyzed based on this model with a higher accuracy rate of credit risk assessment.

Continuous-Time Models for Firm Valuation and Their Collateral Effect on Risk-Neutral Probabilities and No-Arbitraging Principle

Extensions of Merton’s model(EMM)considering the firm’s payments and generating new types of firm value distribution are suggested.In the open log-value/time space,these distributions evolve from initially normal to negatively skewed ones,and their means are concave-down functions of time.When payments are set to zero or proportional to the firm value,EMM turns into the Geometric Brownian model(GBM).We show that risk-neutral probabilities(RNPs)and the no-arbitraging principle(NAP)follow from GBM.When firm’s payments are considered,RNPs and NAP hold for the entire market for short times only,but for long-term investments,RNPs and NAP just temporarily hold for individual stocks as far as mean year returns of the firms issuing those stocks remain constant,and fail when the mean year returns decline.The developed method is applied to firm valuation to derive continuous-time equations for the firm present value and project NPV.

The Credit Risk Assessment Model of Internet Supply Chain Finance: Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model with the Principle of Variable Weight

The characteristics of the financing model are firstly analyzed when the e-commerce enterprises participate in the supply chain finance. Internet supply chain finance models are divided into three categories with the standard of whether the Electronic commerce enterprises provide funds for small and medium enterprises instead of banks. And then we further study the financing process and the functions of the e-commerce platform with specific examples. Finally, combined with the characteristics of the supply chain finance model, we set up a small and medium enterprises credit evaluation model based on the principle of variable weight with its dynamic data. At the same time, a multi time points and multi indicators decision-making method based on the principle of variable weight is proposed and a specific example is presented. In this paper, the Multi-criteria decision-making model with the principle of variable weight has been used two times. At last, a typical case has been analyzed based on this model with a higher accuracy rate of credit risk assessment.

A RISK-SENSITIVE STOCHASTIC MAXIMUM PRINCIPLE FOR OPTIMAL CONTROL OF JUMP DIFFUSIONS AND ITS APPLICATIONS

A stochastic maximum principle for the risk-sensitive optimal control prob- lem of jump diffusion processes with an exponential-of-integral cost functional is derived assuming that the value function is smooth, where the diffusion and jump term may both depend on the control. The form of the maximum principle is similar to its risk-neutral counterpart. But the adjoint equations and the maximum condition heavily depend on the risk-sensitive parameter. As applications, a linear-quadratic risk-sensitive control problem is solved by using the maximum principle derived and explicit optimal control is obtained.

The Principle of Proportionality Toward Risk Prevention——Based on the Judgment Logic of European COVID-19 Derogation Measures

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought legal challenges to the containment measures adopted by European countries.During the outbreak and containment phase of the pandemic,most European countries adopted measures such as lockdowns and mandatory home quarantines based on the principle of risk prevention.However,Article 15 of the European Convention on Human Rights and judgments by the European Court of Human Rights require such measures to comply with the principle of proportionality.In view of this,this article examines the European Court of Justice’s loose judgments on the derogation measures during the pandemic,and the European Court of Human Rights’situational judgments in this regard.Based on the analysis of the legitimacy of the principle of risk prevention and the principle of proportionality in responding to public health emergencies,this article prudently examines and predicts the trend of applying the principle of proportionality of risk prevention for the European COVID-19 derogation measures from three perspectives of legitimacy,necessity,and feasibility.

Stochastic Maximum Principle for a Kind of Risk-sensitive Optimal Control Problem and Application to Portfolio Choice

在这份报纸，我们主要学习一种公事包选择问题在某些金融市场激发的一种风险敏感的最佳的控制问题。用古典凸的变化技术，我们为这种问题获得最大的原则。最大的原则的形式类似于它的风险中立的对应物。但是伴随方程和变化不平等重重地取决于风险敏感的参数。这是从风险中立的案例的主要差别之一。我们使用这结果解决一种最佳的公事包选择问题。鸣钟者获得的最佳的公事包策略当投资者仅仅投资家契约和股票时，动态编程原则是我们的结果的一种特殊情况。计算结果和图明确地说明在最大的期望的实用程序和模型的参数之间的关系。

OPTIMAL REINSURANCE UNDER EXPECTED VALUE PRINCIPLE

The paper concerns the problem how to purchase the reinsurance in order to make the insurer and the reinsurance company＇s total risk to be least under the expected value principle. When the insurer and reinsurance company take arbitrary risk measures, sufficient con- ditions for optimality of reinsurance contract are given within the restricted class of admissible contracts. Further, the explicit forms of optimal reinsurance contract under several special risk measures are given, and the method to decide parameters as well.

Pareto-Optimal Reinsurance Based on TVaR Premium Principle and Vajda Condition

Reinsurance is an effective risk management tool for insurers to stabilize their profitability. In a typical reinsurance treaty, an insurer cedes part of the loss to a reinsurer. As the insurer faces an increasing number of total losses in the insurance market, the insurer might expect the reinsurer to bear an increasing proportion of the total loss, that is the insurer might expect the reinsurer to pay an increasing proportion of the total claim amount when he faces an increasing number of total claims in the insurance market. Motivated by this, we study the optimal reinsurance problem under the Vajda condition. To prevent moral hazard and reflect the spirit of reinsurance, we assume that the retained loss function is increasing and the ceded loss function satisfies the Vajda condition. We derive the explicit expression of the optimal reinsurance under the TVaR risk measure and TVaR premium principle from the perspective of both an insurer and a reinsurer. Our results show that the explicit expression of the optimal reinsurance is in the form of two or three interconnected line segments. Under an additional mild constraint, we get the optimal parameters and find the optimal reinsurance strategy is full reinsurance, no reinsurance, stop loss reinsurance, or quota-share reinsurance. Finally, we gave an example to analyze the impact of the weighting factor on optimal reinsurance.

New Approach to Lightning Strike Risk Assessment of Wind Farm

In the past,lightning strike risk assessment of buildings mainly referred to the Protection against Lightning—Part 2:Risk Management(IEC 62305-2-2010)based on protection angle method.Lightning strike risk assessment of wind farms was conducted according to the Lightning Protection for Wind Energy System(IEC 61400-24-2019),which proposed the method of lightning strike risk assessment for wind turbine.In fact,the basic idea of the two is the same,that is,the source of the lightning strike wind turbine is transformed from the former S1-S4 to the latter N D-N DJ.According to the above method,wind farm was evaluated,and it has been proved that the practice can not achieve good results.After 2018,China has issued the Guide to Evaluation of Lightning Protection Technology in Buildings(T/GZLY 3-2022)and the Technical Specifications for Lightning Interception in Forest Areas(T/LYCY 4062-2024)based on semicircle protection,in which the source of risk defined by lightning point was closer to the reality,highly targeted and effective.Taking offshore wind farm as an example,this paper introduced a new method of establishing six evaluation indicators to determine the risk level according to the principle of compliance and the new protection technology of semi-circular method,which can be used as a reference for technical personnel.

GIS-Based Risk Assessment of Debris Flow Disasters in the Upper Reach of Yangtze River

This paper discussed theory and methodologies of debris-flow risk assessment and established an implementation process according to indicators of debris-flow hazard degree, vulnerability, risk degree, etc. Among these methodologies, historical and potential hazard degree was comprehensively considered into hazard assessment and hazard index was presented to indicate the debris-flow hazard degree. Regarding debris-flow vulnerability assessment, its statistical data and calculating procedure were based on the hazard-degree regionalization instead of administrative divisions, which improved the assessing scientificity and precision. These quantitative methodologies integrated with Geography Information System （GIS） were applied to the risk assessment of debris flows in the upper reach of Yangtze River. Its results were in substantial agreement on investigation data and the actual distribution of debris flows, which showed that these principles and methodologies were reasonable and feasible and can provide basis or reference for debris-flow risk assessment and disaster management.

Risk based security assessment of power system using generalized regression neural network with feature extraction

A comprehensive risk based security assessment which includes low voltage, line overload and voltage collapse was presented using a relatively new neural network technique called as the generalized regression neural network (GRNN) with incorporation of feature extraction method using principle component analysis. In the risk based security assessment formulation, the failure rate associated to weather condition of each line was used to compute the probability of line outage for a given weather condition and the extent of security violation was represented by a severity function. For low voltage and line overload, continuous severity function was considered due to its ability to zoom in into the effect of near violating contingency. New severity function for voltage collapse using the voltage collapse prediction index was proposed. To reduce the computational burden, a new contingency screening method was proposed using the risk factor so as to select the critical line outages. The risk based security assessment method using GRNN was implemented on a large scale 87-bus power system and the results show that the risk prediction results obtained using GRNN with the incorporation of principal component analysis give better performance in terms of accuracy.

Risk Measure and Premium Distribution on Catastrophe Reinsurance

In this paper, we propose a new risk measure which is based on the Or- licz premium principle to characterize catastrophe risk premium. The intention is to develop a formulation strategy for Catastrophe Fund. The logarithm equivalent form of reinsurance premium is regarded as the retention of reinsurer, and the differential earnings between the reinsurance premium and the reinsurer＇s retention is accumu- lated as a part of Catastrophe Fund. We demonstrate that the aforementioned risk measure has some good properties, which are further confirmed by numerical simu- lations in R environment.

Competence Set Analysis Under Risk and Uncertainty

The competence set analysis technology can be applied to solve the decision making problems successfully and satisfactorily. This paper mainly focuses on the expanding strategy research and development of the competence set under risk and uncertainty. A systematic expression of the competence set analysis is described, several expanding principles and strategies with regard to several different cases are presented, and their applications in the personnel training program are discussed, some conclusions and suggestions to be developed in a further work are included.

Legal response to environmental health risks in a risky society

The protection of public health is one of the legislative purposes of China’s environmental legal system.Article 39 of the Environmental Protection Law of the People’s Republic of China establishes an environmental and health risk assessment system.The health risk assessment system has biases in understanding,and it fails to face up to the functional transformation from the ex-post relief of environmental damage to the pre-prevention prevention of health risks in the environmental legal system;lack of a complete environmental and health legal system,unclear environmental and health risk assessment framework,and unclear environmental and health risk assessment frameworks.Health risk management capabilities need to be improved,there is a lack of specialized environmental and health risk assessment institutions,and there is a lack of supporting risk assessment technical standard system construction.It is necessary to combine practical experience with China’s national conditions and actual needs,construct an environmental health risk assessment system with Chinese characteristics from both the entity and the procedure,strengthen legislative support,and improve my country’s environmental and health laws on the basis of objective and scientific protection of the assessment process.Institutional system,establish a national environmental health risk assessment expert committee as soon as possible,improve my country’s environmental and health risk assessment framework,strengthen environmental and health management capacity building,improve the environmental and health risk assessment technical system,and promote the development of China’s environmental and health risk assessment system develop and give play to the institutional mission of safeguarding public health.

论风险预防原则在环境司法适用中的谦抑性

风险预防原则在当下环境法中的司法适用,游走在能动与谦抑之间,且呈现出过度能动倾向。“谦抑性”是对风险预防原则适用“分寸”之理论回应,其法理基础可从风险预防原则的规范基础、固有局限以及司法属性等层面予以诠释。风险预防原则在环境法中适用的谦抑性可被解构为“补充性”“有限性”“温和性”和“内敛性”四要素,由此推理出风险预防原则在环境司法中谦抑性适用的制度框架:在实体上,应促成风险预防原则在环境法典上的体现,只有在对照生态环境风险标准的前提下存在科学不确定性时,方能动用风险预防原则,其适用遵循整体温和的类型化理路。在程序上,诉讼推进阶段下的司法适用应严守职权探知界限,配置阶段化举证责任和类型化的诉前程序;案件裁判阶段下的司法适用不得超出认定事实范围,同时应对援引的风险预防原则附加适用理由。

人工智能教育的伦理风险探赜

人工智能技术以智能化服务、个性化发展、多样性交互的特征介入教育场域,并以颠覆性和变革性的方式为教学方式、学习方式、教学评价、教学环境、学校管理等方面绘制了新的全景式教育蓝图。在教育场域中,人工智能技术可能会在个体维度、关系维度、社会维度引发诸多教育伦理风险。立足于“人的发展”对人工智能的教育应用与教育未来的发展进行批判性思考,坚持以人为本、可解释性、公平正义、包容审慎的伦理原则,将为实现“教育逻辑”与“技术逻辑”的协同耦合提供纾解之道。

有效合规管理的基本原则

为有效地预防企业发生违法违规行为,避免企业遭受重大的系统性合规风险,需要确立一些基本的合规管理原则,使之成为指导企业建立有效合规管理体系的基本准则。企业无论是搭建日常性合规管理体系,还是在危机发生后进行合规整改,都应遵循“风险导向原则”“相称性原则”“高层承诺原则”“权威性原则”“业务流程渗透原则”“可持续性原则”等方面的要求。这是避免纸面合规、形式化合规或无效合规的制度保障,也是企业实现有效合规管理的最低要求。

比例与预防原则关系理论对气候变化立法的阐释效应

为加快中国气候变化立法步伐,妥善处理比例原则和预防原则在气候风险规制领域的控权与保权问题上存在的抵牾、混用,采取规范分析、比较分析等方法,对二者的适用关系进行立法论和解释论相结合的研究。研究发现,学界对该两项原则的关系存在三种理论主张。其中,取代关系说易引发气候风险的过度预防问题;限制关系说可能会消解预防原则,致使气候风险规制难以有效开展。相较而言,协同关系说更适宜指引中国气候变化立法的建构路径,有助于贯彻《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动》等国家政策中的协调式新发展理念,同中国在气候变化应对问题上的国家自主贡献主张理念相吻合。通过进一步的学理、事理和法理阐释发现,气候变化立法有待将“双碳”等议题纳入生态文明建设整体布局和环境法规范体系。协同关系说对中国气候变化立法的指引包括:①坚持总体国家安全观,将适度风险预防原则全面融入气候变化立法,推进气候风险规制的规范解释、气候变化法治原则与制度体系融贯;②促进气候变化减缓性工作的循序渐进、气候变化适应性工作的防微杜渐,优化减缓与适应兼顾并重的气候变化因应制度体系;③推动减污降碳协同增效,构建不同地域、不同行业及央地政府之间“共同但有区别”的气候风险合作治理与责任分工体系;④缓解气候风险规制中自由价值与安全价值间的紧张冲突,强化行政法与环境法的沟通与协调,推动环境法律规制实现由基于确定性的传统秩序行政和福利行政向基于不确定性的风险行政转型,从而促进气候法学的发展。

新时代我国环境法风险预防原则的制度建构

风险社会背景下,风险预防原则在国际环境法领域的国际习惯法地位逐渐清晰并巩固。为了维护国家生态安全,实现生态环境治理现代化,提升我国生态环境法律体系的协调性与科学性,实现当前生态环境法治改革的逻辑自洽,亟需将风险预防原则确立为我国环境法的基本原则。未来的环境法典中应当明文规定风险预防原则,其展开宜采总分模式。风险预防原则的三种强度版本是相辅相成、彼此衔接的有机统一体,灵活适用于不同类型的、严重的或不可逆转的且发生可能性应达到“合理怀疑”程度的生态环境风险活动。协商合作型生态环境风险规制模式耦合科学理性与社会理性于法律理性之中,将实体上生态环境风险共识的形成纳入程序性的法律制度过程,是生态环境风险规制现实可行的路径选择。

柏拉图–伽马模型下尾在险价值度量的贝叶斯估计的渐近行为及其应用

针对柏拉图–伽马风险模型的尾在险价值度量的贝叶斯估计量的渐近行为进行研究有助于对风险度量进行统计推断,以便于风险投资者及时采取相应措施规避风险。首先,通过构造柏拉图–伽马模型的贝叶斯假设,给出了尾在险价值度量的贝叶斯估计量,并利用经典的大偏差和中偏差理论,以及Delta方法得到了尾在险价值度量的贝叶斯估计量的渐近行为,包括渐近正态性、大偏差原理和中偏差原理;其次,给出了尾在险价值度量的贝叶斯估计量的中偏差原理在统计假设检验方面的具体应用,得到了第一类错误和势函数的渐近行为;最后,通过数值模拟的方法,计算并模拟了尾在险价值的置信区间及其区间覆盖率,并在不同样本容量下画出了尾在险价值度量的贝叶斯估计量标准化后的直方图和核密度估计曲线,这与标准正态分布密度函数曲线基本重合,从而验证了估计量的渐近正态性,同时还模拟了尾在险价值度量的贝叶斯估计量相关的尾概率,模拟结果表明样本容量充分大时,尾概率以一定的速度趋近于零,由此验证了估计量的中偏差原理。