Measurement of Radon Concentration and Estimation of Cancer Risk in Twenty-Four Model Houses in the Town of Koudougou

The objective of our study is to evaluate the concentration of radon (86Rn) inside houses in the town of Koudougou in order to estimate its impact on the health of the population. Indeed, when uranium-rich minerals are found near the surface of the ground, radon concentrations can reach tens of becquerels per cubic meter in enclosed spaces. Given the nature of the geological base of Burkina Faso, this situation is quite probable and certain places that are sometimes poorly ventilated (house, school, office, etc.) can have radon levels high enough to constitute a health problem for occupants. Thus, twenty-four (24) sample houses were identified. In each house, the Corentium digital detector was between 0.8 m and 2 m for at least one week in a place where the occupants estimate that they spend more time of time and measure the concentration of radon in the long term and short term. The recorded data allowed us to determine the Absorbed Dose and the Annual Effective Dose of radon gas for each house in order to estimate the Risk of Cancer and the probable Number of Cases of Lung Cancer per million inhabitants. Thus, the results indicate that the long-term radon concentration varies between 6 Bq/m3 and 285 Bq/m3 respectively in houses 11 and 4 compared to 1 Bq/m3 to 208 Bq/m3 in the short term in the same houses. Also, in the long term, in control houses 1, 3 and 4, the radon level is above the recommended threshold interval. For the short term, these are houses 1, 3, 4 and 17 respectively with 110 Bq/m3, 142 Bq/m3, 208 Bq/m3 and 105 Bq/m3. As for the long-term and short-term effective doses, only houses 1, 3, 4, 17 and 24 have values between 3 - 10 Sv/year. The estimation of the relative risk of lung cancer gives values relatively close to unity and between 1.006 and 1.142 with an average of 1.035 and that of the Number of Lung Cancer Cases per million inhabitants gives values between 8 and 166 with an average of 42. Thus, we can conclude that with the exception of houses 1, 3, 4 and 17, the radon concentrations are relatively low in the twenty-four control houses in the city of Koudougou. The lifestyle of the populations can well explain this situation when we know that people are in the habit of always leaving doors and windows open, especially when they are not sleeping. We can therefore say that the risk of population exposure to radon gas is relatively low in the town of Koudougou.

Gross Alpha and Beta Activities and Related Lifetime Risks Assessment Due to Ingestion of Drinking Water from Different Sources in the District of Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire

Drinking good quality water is essential for better health. It is therefore essential to assess the radiological quality of all water consumed in the District of Abidjan in order to prevent related hazards. Thus, the objective of this study was to assess the risk of cancer due to the ingestion of alpha and beta emitting radionuclides in the different types of water consumed in the region. A total of 63 water samples with 43 tap water samples, 5 bottled mineral water and 15 sachet water samples was collected and taken to GAEC laboratory for analysis. The low background Gas-less Automatic Alpha/Beta counting system (Canberra iMaticTM) was used to determine alpha and beta activity concentrations. Activity concentrations of both gross alpha and gross beta obtained in water sample were respectively lower than the WHO recommended limits of 0.1 Bq/l and 1 Bq/l. Also, the annual effective dose and total equivalent effective dose found in mineral bottled water samples were higher than in other types of water. The assessment of radiological lifetime risk has shown values of cancer risk due to ingestion alpha and beta emitters lower than recommended limit. These results indicate that there is no health hazard associated to consumption of water in the District of Abidjan.

The impact of anti-corruption measures and risk effects on equity incentives and financial misreporting in China

This study examines the effects of anti-corruption and equity incentive risk on financial misreporting in the context of China’s unique corporate ownership structure and governance regime.Using a sample comprising 2,708 cases of financial restatement over the 2007-2017 period.Our key findings suggest that managers’shareholdings are significantly and positively associated with their firms’financial misreporting,and certain equity risk factors dramatically alter Chinese corporate governance.Furthermore,managers’motivation to misreport is significantly more pronounced in non-state owned enterprises(nonSOEs),suggesting that equity incentive risk effects mitigate the"absence of ownership"problem believed to affect SOEs.Managers in highly competitive industries and firms with low institutional ownership are found to be highly motivated to misreport performance.

干旱形成机制与预测理论方法及其灾害风险特征研究进展与展望

在全球变暖背景下,干旱事件发生的频率和强度不断增大、影响不断加重,干旱发生规律的异常性和机制的复杂性也更为突出,对干旱形成机制、预测理论方法及灾害风险变化规律等方面都提出了新的挑战,也制约了当前干旱预测、预警及其灾害防控能力的提高。近年来,在国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)课题等多个国家级项目支持下,已在干旱灾害形成机制与预测理论方法及其风险特征方面取得了一系列新成果。通过动力诊断、数值模拟和田间试验等方法,开展了干旱形成的多因子协同作用和多尺度叠加机制、干旱致灾过程的逐阶递进特征,以及干旱灾害风险分布演化的主控因素等方面的研究。对如下几方面的新进展进行了系统总结归纳:(1)厘清了全球变暖背景下青藏高原热力、海温、夏季风、遥相关等多因子对干旱形成的作用机制。(2)发现了降水亏缺时间尺度和农作物不同生长阶段的干旱敏感性规律。(3)揭示了变暖背景下典型区域干旱灾害风险分布及其变异的新特征;构建了干旱灾害风险新概念模型。(4)研发了东亚季风区的季节和次季节干旱集成预测系统。在总结归纳已取得研究成果的基础上,对未来干旱形成机制及其灾害风险科学研究进行了展望,提出了5个重点研究方向:(1)多因子联动及其多尺度叠加效应对干旱形成的影响;(2)系统整合人类活动和决策以及相关反馈的气候模式研究;(3)揭示陆-气耦合和大气环流协同作用对干旱的影响;(4)认识干旱灾害对粮食安全和生态安全影响的关键过程;(5)提高不同气候情景下干旱预估的准确度。

高校思想政治教育数字化发展的现实效能、风险检视与优化路径

伴随高校教育数字化行动的方兴未艾,如何把握好高校思政教育数字化发展效能与限度的张力,破解数字化发展进程中的风险挑战,已成为高校思想政治教育提质增效的前沿课题。当前,高校思想政治教育数字化发展呈现出持续向好的态势,数字化在要素动态联结、过程场域开拓、环节效果优化等方面赋能了高校思想政治教育创新发展,但也暴露出数字迭代悬浮、数字功能失范、数字关系失度等一系列风险挑战。新发展阶段,我们必须正视高校思想政治教育仍处于“弱数字化”的阶段性现实,在思维革新、机制优化、关系深化上精准发力,聚焦“认知-态度-能力”问题落实好数字化理念,精心打造“生产-传播-反馈”协同的数字化运作机制,建构“寓教于数、与数偕行”的新型教育主客体关系,以更加积极主动的作为不断塑造高校思想政治教育数字化发展的新动能。

Analysis of Seismic Risk at an Engineering Site from Site Effect Seismic Intensity Data Using the Seismotectonic Method——Taking Six Reservoir Dam Sites in Western Anhui as an Example

The seismotectonic method is used to study the seismogenic structures and the maximum potential earthquake around an engineering site in order to determine the seismic risk at the site. Analysis of seismic risk from site effect seismic intensity data, in combination with regional seismo_geological data, using the seismotectonic method can provide a more reliable result. In this paper, taking the area of six reservoir dam sites in western Anhui as an example, we analyze the seismic risk from site effect seismic intensity data in combination with the seismotectonic conditions and find that P (I≥i)=10% over 50 years. The result shows that the seismogenic structure and the maximum potential earthquake have a controlling effect on seismic risk from future earthquakes in the area around the site.

老年营养风险指数对腹膜透析相关性腹膜炎患者治疗效果的评估价值

目的探讨老年营养风险指数(geriatric nutritional risk index,GNRI)对腹膜透析相关性腹膜炎(peritoneal dialysis associated peritonitis,PDAP)患者治疗效果的评估价值。方法选取2020年1月—2023年1月于青岛市市立医院就诊的PDAP患者147例作为研究对象,根据患者治疗效果分为治愈组和治疗失败组,比较2组间GNRI分值及临床特征差异,分析GNRI分值与PDAP患者治疗效果的关系。结果治愈组患者102例,治疗失败组患者45例,其中患者死亡25例、拔管10例、转院治疗10例。与治愈组相比,治疗失败组患者GNRI分值、体质量指数、血红蛋白、白蛋白(ALB)降低(t=5.134、7.517、2.336、3.259,P<0.001、<0.001、0.021、0.001),透析龄高于治愈组(t=10.924,P<0.001)。Logistic多因素回归分析显示GNRI分值下降(OR=0.541,95%CI:0.335~0.872,P<0.001)、ALB下降(OR=0.638,95%CI:0.494~0.825,P<0.001)和透析龄延长(OR=1.674,95%CI:1.081~2.591,P<0.001)是PDAP患者治疗失败的独立危险预测因素。ROC曲线分析显示GNRI分值预测PDAP患者治疗失败的ROC曲线下面积为0.735,敏感度为89.55%,特异度为75.43%,约登指数为0.649,最佳预测值为90.53分。结论GNRI分值下降是PDAP患者治疗失败的独立危险预测因素,且对PDAP患者治疗失败具有较高的预测效能,及早纠正患者营养状态可改善患者治疗效果。

Effects of a Community-Based Intervention on the Lifestyle and Health of People at Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in Benin

Introduction: Worldwide, the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is increasing at an epidemic rate. The objective of this study was to measure the effects on lifestyle intervention in subjects at risk of T2D in a West African country. Methods: This study involved Beninese adults at risk of T2D randomly selected from 2 groups of villages: control villages and villages exposed to nutrition education, cooking demonstrations and physical activity sessions. Anthropometric, clinical, and biological measurements were taken in both groups at the beginning and end of the intervention, which lasted 12 months. The paired sample t-test was used to assess the effect of the intervention on the lifestyle of people at risk of T2D. Results: After 12 months of exposure to nutrition education, cooking demonstrations and physical activity sessions in the intervention villages, the mean body mass index, waist circumference, body fat percentage, blood glucose, triglycerides, total cholesterol and amount of alcohol consumed per week had significantly decreased. Conversely, the mean intensity of physical activity and food consumption score had significantly increased. In the control group, 5.6% of the people at risk developed to diabetes. The relative risk was RR = 0.20 [0.14 - 0.56]. Conclusion: The intervention significantly improved metabolic indicators, intensity of leisure activity and dietary score. We suggest larger studies to better assess the effect of community-based interventions on the lifestyle and health of people at risk of T2D in Africa.

基于EVT-Copula-CoVaR的石油市场对中国碳市场风险溢出效应研究

石油是全球碳排放的重要来源,而碳排放权交易市场是节能减排的有效工具,将石油市场与碳市场进行关联分析,特别是考虑到中国特殊的制度设计问题,测度国内外石油市场对中国不同碳市场的风险溢出效应受到理论界和实务界的关注与重视。本文在考虑到市场极端风险的基础上,选取2014年4月2日至2019年10月31日国内外石油市场与5个交易较活跃的中国碳市场的碳价格数据作为研究样本,构建EVT-Copula-CoVaR模型量化分析石油市场对中国碳市场的风险溢出效应。研究表明,国内外石油市场的风险事件对各碳市场均产生正向溢出效应,且对比不同碳市场可发现同一置信水平下石油市场对碳市场的风险溢出强度从大到小依次为:湖北、广东、深圳、北京、上海。同时,对比国内外石油市场发现,国外石油市场对碳市场的风险溢出效应更大。研究结论有助于丰富和延伸我国碳市场与石油市场之间的联动机制研究,同时对我国碳市场的稳定发展及风险管理具有重要的意义。

Trade Isolation Effect of Terrorism Risks along the"Belt and Road"Route

Rising terrorism risks are a major obstacle for Belt and Road countries to integrate into the global trade network. Based on the cross-country panel data of the now 66 Belt and Road countries during 2000-2013, this paper carries out an empirical study on the trade isolation effect of terrorism risks with the following findings: Rising terrorism risks will indeed give rise to a significant "trade isolation effect" with greater negative impact on a country's export than on import. After taking into account the endogeneity of the variable of terrorism risks and heterogeneous casualties of terrorist attacks, this conclusion remains robust. In addition, the trade isolation effect of terrorism risks is also characterized by heterogeneous targets under attack, i.e. the degree of trade isolation effect is positively correlated with the randomness of targets under terrorist attacks.

泌尿外科老年住院患者院内感染的风险预测模型构建及效能验证研究

目的 分析泌尿外科老年住院患者院内感染的危险因素,构建泌尿外科老年住院患者院内感染的风险预测模型,并对其效能进行验证。方法 选取成都市第三人民医院泌尿外科2022年1~12月老年住院患者1 050例为研究对象,按照患者医院感染发生情况,分为感染患者(研究组)45例和非感染患者(对照组)1 005例。采用单因素和多因素Logistic法,筛选泌尿外科老年住院患者院内感染的危险因素,进而构建老年住院患者院内感染的风险预测模型。采用Hosmer and Lemeshow进行风险预测模型的拟合优度检验,绘制ROC曲线,评价风险预测模型的预测价值。结果 年龄>75岁、住院时间≥15 d、手术治疗、使用呼吸机辅助通气和留置导尿管是泌尿外科老年住院患者院感发生的危险因素;预测老年住院患者院内感染发生的概率模型:P=1/[1+exp(6.055-0.969X1-2.802X2-1.904X4-1.169X5-2.120X6)];ROC曲线分析显AUC为0.916,95%CI为0.874~0.957。结论 年龄>75岁、住院时间≥15 d、手术治疗、使用呼吸机辅助通气和留置导尿管是泌尿外科老年住院患者院感发生的危险因素,临床实践中应针对上述因素对高危患者人群进行筛查,并实施有针对性的治疗和干预措施以预防感染发生。同时,采用风险预测模型能够对泌尿外科老年住院患者医院感染风险进行科学评价,能够为临床实践提供参考和指导依据。

基于概率模型的四川省降水诱发地质灾害风险预警方法研究

开展降水诱发地质灾害风险预警是降低地质灾害风险的重要手段之一。基于2008-2019年四川省地质灾害历史灾情数据,在地理分区基础上,以地形、岩土、植被、气候因子为区划评价因子,采用信息量模型,将四川省划分为7个地质灾害分区。以正态化处理后的地质灾害有效降水量为建模因子,采用高斯拟合方法,建立各分区降水诱发地质灾害概率模型,并进行地质灾害预警检验。结果表明:(1)四川省可划分为盆地及盆周山区低易发区、中等易发区、高易发区,西南山地次易发区、易发区,川西高原次易发区、易发区等7个地质灾害分区。(2)ROC(Receiver Operating Characteristic)曲线分析表明,盆地及盆周山区的地质灾害分区精度略低于西南山地区和川西高原区的分区精度。(3)各分区正态化处理后的有效降水量与地质灾害频率具有很好的高斯分布关系。(4)建立的降水诱发地质灾害概率模型的地质灾害预警成功率为72%,当日降水量≥10 mm时,地质灾害预警成功率为83%。

ApoE基因多态性与高水平Hcy的协同作用对妊娠高血压的影响

目的为探究载脂蛋白E(ApoE)基因多态性与同型半胱氨酸(Hcy)的协同作用对妊娠高血压发病的影响。方法选取2021年1月至2021年12月新疆维吾尔自治区人民医院收治的200例妊娠期高血压孕妇作为研究组,同期非妊娠高血压孕妇200例作为对照组,检测两组孕妇ApoE基因多态性以及Hcy水平。结果研究组蛋白尿、水肿、胎儿生长受限、羊水过少的发生率均显著高于对照组(χ^(2)值介于10.751~34.783之间,P<0.01),且血中Hcy水平显著高于对照组(t=3.210,P<0.05)。研究组ε2ε3、ε3ε3基因型频率以及ε2、ε3等位基因频率均显著低于对照组,ε3ε4、ε4ε4基因型频率以及ε4等位基因频率均显著高于对照组(χ^(2)值介于4.624~32.172之间,P<0.05),ε2ε2、ε2ε4基因型频率略高于对照组但无显著性差异(χ^(2)值分别为1.309、0.069,P>0.05)。研究组E3、E4 AopE表型孕妇的Hcy水平均显著高于对照组(t值分别为4.009、2.609,P<0.05),且研究组E4表型孕妇的Hcy水平显著高于E2、E3(F值为4.118,P<0.05)。E4表型中研究组孕妇的高Hcy比例显著高于对照组(χ^(2)=4.650,P<0.05),而E2、E3表型中两组孕妇的高Hcy比例均无显著性差异(χ^(2)值分别为3.678、3.432,P>0.05)。结论ApoE基因多态性和高水平Hcy在妊娠期高血压疾病发病中存在协同作用,ApoE基因ε4等位基因的存在与高Hcy水平之间的相互作用会增加妊娠期高血压疾病发生的风险。

自愿披露客户信息影响了债券违约风险吗?

以2010—2021年沪深A股上市公司发行的公司债为样本,实证检验了自愿披露客户信息对债券违约风险的影响。研究发现,自愿披露客户信息产生的额外风险加剧了债券违约风险,这种影响在高专有成本和高融资约束的企业中表现更为显著,但企业发行的绿色债券并未受到影响。机制检验表明,经营风险增加和机构投资者持股降低是自愿披露客户信息影响债券违约风险的重要途径。研究表明,企业需要慎重考虑披露客户信息带来的风险,审慎制定信息披露策略。

术前多模态超声参数对乳腺良性结节微波消融术后疗效的预测价值

目的:探讨术前多模态超声参数对乳腺良性结节微波消融术后疗效的预测价值。方法:选取2019年1月至2022年9月在本院择期行微波消融术的乳腺良性结节患者175例(共210个结节)。根据术后3个月的乳腺结节缩小率和是否消融完全,将患者分为有效组(n=143)和无效组(n=32)。收集患者临床资料,并于术前采用多模态超声(常规超声、超声造影和超声弹性成像)检查记录结节最大直径(Dmax)、峰值强度(PI)、达峰时间(TTP)、杨氏模量最大弹性值(Emax)和杨氏模量平均弹性值(Emean)。采用单因素和多因素Logistic回归分析影响乳腺良性结节患者微波消融术后疗效的独立危险因素,并建立风险预测模型,受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线检测模型的预测效能。结果:有效组和无效组患者在术前Dmax、BMI、PI、TTP、Emax和Emean比较上有明显差异(P<0.05),在年龄、婚育史和合并基础病等比较上无明显差异(P>0.05)。Logistic回归分析显示,术前Dmax、PI和Emax均为影响乳腺良性结节患者微波消融术后疗效的独立危险因素。风险预测模型概率P=1/(1+e^(-25.568-4.911×Dmax+0.541×PI+0.604×Emax)),Hosmer-Lemeshow χ^(2)=6.235(P=0.621),ROC分析显示,Logistic回归模型预测乳腺良性结节患者微波消融术后疗效的AUC为0.793,95%CI为0.712~0.874。结论:术前Dmax、PI和Emax均为影响乳腺良性结节患者微波消融术后疗效的独立危险因素,基于多模态超声参数构建Logistic回归模型可以有效预测乳腺良性结节患者微波消融术后疗效,并通过该风险预测模型进行有效干预。

Risk Evaluation in Blood Donation Using Failure Mode and Effective Analysis

The recognition and management of risk in donation process and blood product is critical to ensure donor and patient safety. To achieve this goal, the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a convenient method;moreover it was used to prevent the occurrence of adverse events and look at what could go strong at each step. This study aimed to utilize FMEA in central blood bank in Khartoum to evaluate the potential risk and adverse event that may occur during the donation process. According to the severity, occurrence and the detection of each failure mode, the risk priority number (RPN) was calculated to determine which of the failures should take priority to find a solution and applying corrective action to reduce the failure risk. The statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) version 11 was used as descriptive and analytical statistics tool. The FMEA technique provides a systematic method for finding vulnerabilities in a process before they result in an error, and in this study a satisfactory outcome was reached.

数字经济时代区域经济下行风险防范与应对:基于GaR模型的实证分析

防范化解重大经济金融风险是保障我国经济高质量发展的关键,数字经济发展为积极应对经济下行压力、快速转换经济增长动力、统筹兼顾“稳增长”与“防风险”提供了新的契机。基于内生增长理论模型和“在险增长”(GaR)实证研究框架,演绎了数字经济发展的理论机理,使用我国2011-2022年期间226个地级市的季度数据测度了区域经济下行风险,实证考察了数字经济发展对区域经济下行风险的作用效果。结论表明:数字经济发展能够有力防范区域经济下行风险;通过促进产业转型升级、挖掘城市市场潜力、激活乡村消费活力以及增强大众创业动力,数字经济能够发挥资本渗透与技术溢出的间接效应。进一步分析表明,数字经济在缺乏区位优势、经济基础较弱的城市作用效果并不显著,加快数字基础设施建设能够调节风险防范效应的空间异质性。研究结果对研判宏观经济增长不确定性、加快发展新质生产力、推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长具有重要意义。

家庭风险因素对青少年自伤的累积效应及其性别差异

以累积风险模型为基础,以453名初一学生为被试进行间隔10个月的追踪研究,考察家庭风险因素对青少年当前和10个月后自伤行为的累积效应及其性别差异。结果表明:(1)家庭风险因素对青少年当前和10个月后的自伤均有明显的累积效应,且均以线性模式发挥作用;(2)在累积家庭风险与青少年当前自伤之间的线性关系中有明显的性别差异,女生有更高的家庭累积风险,且女生的自伤更容易受家庭累积风险的影响。

企业提高ESG表现能够降低股价崩盘风险吗?

本文以2011—2020年沪深A股上市公司为对象,运用企业ESG表现对股价崩盘风险影响的处理效应模型(Treatment effect model)考察ESG表现对股价崩盘风险的影响。研究结果表明,企业提高ESG表现会抑制股价崩盘风险,符合“价值假说”。影响机制检验表明,媒体与分析师关注度正向调节ESG表现对股价崩盘风险的抑制作用,发挥“互补效应”;企业提高ESG表现通过缓解委托代理冲突抑制股价崩盘风险。进一步分析发现,ESG表现对股价崩盘风险的抑制作用仅在非国有企业和所处地区市场化水平较低的企业中成立,且抑制股价崩盘风险是ESG表现提升企业价值的重要路径。上述结论为推动上市公司履行ESG投资责任、完善风险管理机制和实现企业长期价值提供了经验参考。