AHP-FCE Based Physical Exercise Risk Evaluation Model

Exercise is a highly proven and beneficial health promotion modality, But it is very difficult to determine whether the person during exercise is safe. A unique and comprehensive approach is proposed to perform physical exercise risk evaluation （PERE）, in which personalized factors are deterrrdned basing on grey correlation analysis, analytic hierarchy process （AHP） method is used to structure the large numbers of risk factors, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation （FCE） is applied to fuzzify the factors and compute the exercise risk level. Finally, an actual calculation example is used to verify the feasibility of the method.

Impacts of the Financial Factors on Schedule Delays Risk of the International Contracting Projects: Evidence from Highway BOT Pro-jects in Vietnam

Vietnam has become a major market for construction enterprises from East Asian countries, especially from China, to participate in international project contracting, but serious schedule delays have important adverse effects on local government and foreign investment companies. Based on international engineering contracting mode of Vietnam highway BOT construction projects, we discussed the drive financial factors of schedule delays, using the methods of exploratory factor analysis and questionnaire survey, and evaluated the effects of various factors which are through regression analysis. The empirical results show that the five categories of financial factors, including the policy change, slow payment, financial mismanagement, financial market changes and lack of fiscal, have significant effects on schedule delay. Furtherly, we suggested that strengthening policy research and improving financial management ability should be used to reduce the influence of relevant financial factors on schedule delay, to improve the profitability of international businesses and the motivation of foreign enterprises to participate in Vietnam highway project.

结合STPA和DEMATEL-ISM的民机起落架收放系统风险研究

为从系统整体角度完成对起落架收放系统的风险辨识和影响分析,将系统理论过程分析(Systematic Theory Process Analysis,STPA)与决策实验室分析-解释结构模型(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Interpretive Structural Modeling,DEMATEL-ISM)相结合来开展分析。首先,定义事故和系统级危险,以民机进近阶段放下起落架为例,运用STPA完成对风险因素的系统化辨识;其次,基于最大平均熵减(Maximum Mean De-entropy,MMDE)算法帮助DEMATEL-ISM模型确定阈值,完成对风险因素影响的重要性分析并识别可能引发系统级危险的风险传递路径,据此挖掘关键致因场景,以给出风险预防建议。结果显示:线路性能退化或失效、位置作动控制组件(Position Action Control Unit,PACU)核心处理器故障为关键原因因素,收放作动筒作动异常、机组成员操作不当、起落架指示灯显示异常、起落架液压选择阀作动异常、PACU信息接收有误为关键结果因素,这些因素均涉及多条可能引发系统级危险的风险传递路径,应予以重点控制。

A Simplified ArcGIS Approach for Landslides Risk Assessment in the Province of Bergamo

The paper describes a simplified GIS approach, for landslides risk assessment in the Province of Bergamo, developed for a GIS degree thesis at the faculty of Engineering of the University of Bergamo. The subject has been and still is largely studied by many researchers with the aid of rigorous mathematical/statistical analysis tools. This work follows some procedures carried out by other studies, but at the end it has been decided to adopt a simple, fast and not rigorous way to find a solution. A following analysis, on the higher risk areas identified, has also been performed to test their reliability, allowing achieving satisfactory results. It has been planned to study the risk model more thoroughly, by taking into account other triggering causes for landslide susceptibility and to try also a rigorous approach, so as to get a better idea of the results achieved so far and how to improve them.

Scale for Evaluation of Humanities Courses: Development, Reliability and Validity

The present paper deals with development of a course evaluation survey (CES) questionnaire regarding evaluation of humanities courses (e.g., Commerce/Economics/Law) and assessment of its validity and reliability. Taking help from available questionnaires and also incorporating views from the teachers of the related subjects, the relevant Likert type items were selected. The drafted version of the questionnaire was finalized taking into account feedback from the subject experts. The focus was on simple language to ensure clarity to the students to facilitate accuracy of the collected data. The developed questionnaire consists of five domains involving fifteen Likert type items including a global item. For assessment of its reliability and validity, data were collected among two groups of undergraduate students studying two courses namely Accounts (n = 190) and Law (n = 90). For assessing questionnaire, Karl Pearson Correlation Coefficient, Cronbach’s Alpha coefficient and four factor solutions under factor analysis were used. The analytical results were quite consistent across the data sets (that are, accounts, law and pooled together) that exhibit good psychometric properties. It may thus be concluded that the questionnaire is valid, reliable and may measure what it is intended to measure.

Landslide susceptibility assessment in Western Henan Province based on a comparison of conventional and ensemble machine learning

Landslide is a serious natural disaster next only to earthquake and flood,which will cause a great threat to people’s lives and property safety.The traditional research of landslide disaster based on experience-driven or statistical model and its assessment results are subjective,difficult to quantify,and no pertinence.As a new research method for landslide susceptibility assessment,machine learning can greatly improve the landslide susceptibility model’s accuracy by constructing statistical models.Taking Western Henan for example,the study selected 16 landslide influencing factors such as topography,geological environment,hydrological conditions,and human activities,and 11 landslide factors with the most significant influence on the landslide were selected by the recursive feature elimination(RFE)method.Five machine learning methods[Support Vector Machines(SVM),Logistic Regression(LR),Random Forest(RF),Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost),and Linear Discriminant Analysis(LDA)]were used to construct the spatial distribution model of landslide susceptibility.The models were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve and statistical index.After analysis and comparison,the XGBoost model(AUC 0.8759)performed the best and was suitable for dealing with regression problems.The model had a high adaptability to landslide data.According to the landslide susceptibility map of the five models,the overall distribution can be observed.The extremely high and high susceptibility areas are distributed in the Funiu Mountain range in the southwest,the Xiaoshan Mountain range in the west,and the Yellow River Basin in the north.These areas have large terrain fluctuations,complicated geological structural environments and frequent human engineering activities.The extremely high and highly prone areas were 12043.3 km^(2)and 3087.45 km^(2),accounting for 47.61%and 12.20%of the total area of the study area,respectively.Our study reflects the distribution of landslide susceptibility in western Henan Province,which provides a scientific basis for regional disaster warning,prediction,and resource protection.The study has important practical significance for subsequent landslide disaster management.

神经外科病人导管相关性尿路感染危险因素评价指标体系的构建

目的:构建神经外科病人导管相关性尿路感染(CAUTI)危险因素评价指标体系。方法:通过梳理相关文献、采取德尔菲专家函询法等构建神经外科病人CAUTI危险因素评价指标体系,使用层次分析法和专家重要性赋值平均分配法确定指标组合权重。结果:构建的神经外科病人CAUTI危险因素评价指标体系包括一般因素、疾病因素、侵入性操作、用药因素和护理因素5个一级指标、25个二级指标,两轮专家函询问卷有效回收率分别为85%和100%。专家权威系数为0.82,第2轮专家函询的一级指标变异系数(CV)为11.06%~23.81%,肯德尔和谐系数(Kendall'W)值为0.661(P<0.05);二级指标CV为4.91%~22.91%,Kendall'W值为0.840(P<0.05)。结论:构建的神经外科病人CAUTI危险因素评价指标体系具有可靠性,能够较全面地监测神经外科病人CAUTI情况。

临床护士针刺伤风险评估指标体系的构建

目的:构建临床护士针刺伤风险评估指标体系,为我国临床护士针刺伤风险评估提供依据。方法:以人因分析与分类系统理论框架为指导,通过文献研究、德尔菲专家函询法及层次分析法,确定临床护士针刺伤风险评估指标体系及各级指标权重。结果:共进行了2轮专家函询,问卷有效回收率分别为100.0%和94.7%,专家权威系数分别为0.937和0.936,肯德尔协调系数分别为0.216和0.256。最终形成的临床护士针刺伤风险评估指标体系包含4个一级指标、12个二级指标和54个三级指标。结论:构建的临床护士针刺伤风险评估指标体系具有较好的科学性和可靠性,可用于临床护士针刺伤风险的评估,为医院职业防护管理实践的持续优化和改进提供理论和实践依据。

融合模糊德尔菲法与结构方程模型的水冷机箱用户体验满意度研究

为提高产品设计的满意度,衡量产品评价因素对设计的重要性,准确获取用户需求,提升用户体验,提出模糊德尔菲法(Fuzzy Delphi Method, FDM)与结构方程模型(Structural Equation Model, SEM)相结合的评价方法;基于FDM筛选计算机水冷机箱评价指标因素,建立层级评价指标模型,并基于SEM提出假设,创建水冷机箱的用户满意度评价模型,得出标准化回归系数,分析各潜变量对用户满意度的影响,提出设计方案的改进意见。研究表明:该方法可减少设计评价中指标量化的主观性,帮助设计人员确定指标因素的优先级,明确设计重点,提升用户满意度,为产品设计方案的评选提供参考。

蒙陕接壤区侏罗系煤田深部煤层开采失水风险评价

以黄河流域中上游台格庙矿区为研究对象,分析含(隔)水层空间结构与导水断裂带发育高度关系,挖掘研究区内影响含水层失水的主控因素;引入残余基岩有效隔水层厚度指标,构建浅层白垩系含水层失水风险评价体系;基于层次分析-熵权综合判别法,计算各主控因素权重,建立深部煤层开采对浅水含水层扰动的定量评价模型;通过对不同权重的控制因素图叠加,得到了深部煤层开采失水风险分区图,利用周边矿井实测涌水量验证了分区结果。结果表明:含水层厚度、水压、单位涌水量、开采影响下残余隔水保护层厚度是主采煤层上覆含水层失水影响的主控因素,矿区内西北角和东北角富水性较好、残余隔水层基岩厚度较薄,导致该区域存在一定失水风险,研究结果与现场实际情况基本吻合。

Comprehensively evaluate the short outcome of small bowel obstruction:A novel medical-economic score system

BACKGROUND Small bowel obstruction(SBO)still imposes a substantial burden on the health care system.Traditional evaluation systems for SBO outcomes only focus on a single element.The comprehensive evaluation of outcomes for patients with SBO remains poorly studied.Early intensive clinical care would effectively improve the short-term outcomes for SBO,however,the full spectrum of the potential risk status regarding the high complication-cost burden is undetermined.AIM We aim to construct a novel system for the evaluation of SBO outcomes and the identification of potential risk status.METHODS Patients who were diagnosed with SBO were enrolled and stratified into the simple SBO(SiBO)group and the strangulated SBO(StBO)group.A principal component(PC)analysis was applied for data simplification and the extraction of patient characteristics,followed by separation of the high PC score group and the low PC score group.We identified independent risk status on admission via a binary logistic regression and then constructed predictive models for worsened management outcomes.Receiver operating characteristic curves were drawn,and the areas under the curve(AUCs)were calculated to assess the effectiveness of the predictive models.RESULTS Of the 281 patients,45 patients(16.0%)were found to have StBO,whereas 236 patients(84.0%)had SiBO.Regarding standardized length of stay(LOS),total hospital cost and the presence of severe adverse events(SAEs),a novel principal component was extracted(PC score=0.429×LOS+0.444×total hospital cost+0.291×SAE).In the multivariate analysis,risk statuses related to poor results for SiBO patients,including a low lymphocyte to monocyte ratio(OR=0.656),radiological features of a lack of small bowel feces signs(OR=0.316)and mural thickening(OR=1.338),were identified as risk factors.For the StBO group,higher BUN levels(OR=1.478)and lower lymphocytes levels(OR=0.071)were observed.The AUCs of the predictive models for poor outcomes were 0.715(95%CI:0.635-0.795)and 0.874(95%CI:0.762-0.986)for SiBO and StBO stratification,respectively.CONCLUSION The novel PC indicator provided a comprehensive scoring system for evaluating SBO outcomes on the foundation of complication-cost burden.According to the relative risk factors,early tailored intervention would improve the short-term outcomes.

烧伤患者并发深静脉血栓危险因素的Meta分析

目的系统分析烧伤患者并发深静脉血栓的危险因素。方法检索PubMed、Embase、The Cochrane Library、Web of Science、中国生物医学文献数据库、中国期刊全文数据库(中国知网)、中国学术期刊数据库(万方)、中文科技期刊数据库(维普)等数据库建库至2021年9月公开发表的烧伤患者并发深静脉血栓危险因素的相关中英文文献,筛选并提取相关资料,采用纽卡斯尔-渥太华量表(NOS)进行质量评价,采用RevMan 5.4软件进行Meta分析。结果检索后通过筛选共获得文献15篇,总样本量103976例,确诊深静脉血栓852例,共纳入危险因素18个,NOS评分均>5分,故全部纳入Meta分析。结果显示,年龄、肥胖、烧伤面积≥10%TBSA、吸入性损伤、下肢烧伤、躯干烧伤、热力烧伤、电烧伤、排除血栓后输血、中心静脉置管、股静脉置管、创面感染、卧床时间≥20 d、植皮是烧伤患者并发深静脉血栓的危险因素(OR=1.01、2.04、31.65、2.90、8.38、7.78、0.11、6.61、10.58、3.02、59.83、3.08、28.21、2.83,95%CI为1.01~1.02、1.45~2.88、8.69~115.20、2.22~3.79、4.43~15.86、4.16~14.55、0.06~0.22、3.04~14.38、5.27~21.23、2.29~3.98、19.16~186.80、1.68~5.66、7.97~99.82、1.58~5.07)。结论烧伤患者并发深静脉血栓的危险因素涉及患者年龄、体重指数、烧伤面积、烧伤部位、致伤原因、治疗方法等多个方面。

婴幼儿毛细支气管炎后发生喘息危险因素的系统评价

目的:系统评价婴幼儿毛细支气管炎后喘息的危险因素。方法:检索中国知网(CNKI)、中国生物医学文献数据库(CBM)、维普数据库(VIP)、万方数据库(WanFang Database)、PubMed、EMbase、Web of Science等数据库,搜集婴幼儿毛细支气管炎后喘息危险因素的病例-对照研究和队列研究,检索时限均从建库至2022年1月31日。由2位评价员独立筛选文献、提取资料并评价纳入研究的偏倚风险后,采用RevMan 5.4.1软件进行Meta分析。结果:共纳入13项队列研究,涉及毛细支气管炎患儿2 887例。Meta分析结果显示:患儿出生体质量大于4 kg[OR=2.25,95%CI(1.22,4.16),P=0.010]、母乳喂养[OR=0.69,95%CI(0.49,0.99),P=0.04]、过敏性疾病家族史[OR=2.67,95%CI(1.44,4.95),P=0.002]、哮喘家族史[OR=2.13,95%CI(1.03,4.40),P=0.04]、湿疹[OR=2.30,95%CI(1.82,2.91),P<0.000 01]、烟草暴露[OR=2.73,95%CI(1.55,4.82),P=0.000 5]、特应质[OR=5.71,95%CI(3.24,10.06),P<0.000 01]、病情严重程度[OR=2.39,95%CI(1.35,4.25),P=0.003]、牛奶蛋白阳性[OR=5.18,95%CI(1.93,13.87),P=0.001]、肺纹理增粗[OR=2.04,95%CI(1.10,3.77),P=0.02]均是婴幼儿毛细支气管炎后喘息的危险因素。结论:当前证据显示,患儿出生体质量大于4 kg、母乳喂养、过敏性疾病家族史、哮喘家族史、湿疹、烟草暴露、特应质、病情严重程度、牛奶蛋白阳性、肺纹理增粗是婴幼儿毛细支气管炎后喘息的危险因素。临床医护人员应针对具有以上危险因素的高危人群加强防护和管理,以降低毛细支气管炎后喘息的发生。

基于PCA-灰靶模型的采空区安全评价

为了解决采空区安全评价影响因素较多以及影响因素之间的相关性对评价结果准确性带来不利影响的问题,基于主成分分析(Principal Component Analysis,PCA)法和传统灰靶模型,通过PCA降维、去相关性,提出了一种改进的灰靶模型(PCA-灰靶模型);利用该模型对广西某铜矿10个采空区进行安全评价,并与传统灰靶模型的评价结果进行对比,结果表明:PCA-灰靶模型的评价结果相对于传统模型更加准确,可对采空区的安全风险等级作出准确评价,且评价过程更加方便、简单。

基于供应链运作参考模型的粮食供应链安全风险评价研究

近年来,随着粮食安全事件的频频发生,粮食供应链安全风险引起了政府和企业高度重视。为了解粮食供应链安全抗风险能力,本文以粮食供应链系统为研究对象,运用供应链运作参考模型(Supply Chain Operations Reference,SCOR)初步识别风险因素指标,之后通过SPSS软件对初步识别出的粮食供应链安全风险影响因素指标进行筛选确认,构建出最终的粮食供应链安全风险评价指标体系,并基于层次分析法和模糊综合分析法建立模型。研究发现,粮食供应链安全风险水平处于一般风险与较高风险之间,但一些影响其风险水平的短板因素值得深入关注。最后,对粮食供应链各环节安全风险提出了相应的对策建议,以期为粮食企业及相关行业供应链安全风险保障体系建设提供科学的理论参考。

深基坑开挖过程中的风险评估及案例分析

从风险理念上出发,通过对基坑事故的广泛调查,得到深基坑安全性的主要影响因素及其所占权重,据此结果对深基坑安全风险等级进行评判。首先,简要地介绍了深基坑工程发展现状、工程中可能存在的各种风险、目前基坑工程等级划分情况等;其次,总结由大量深基坑事故调查所得到的各种原因,并统计分析,从而得到深基坑安全风险的各种影响因素和对应的权重;最后,介绍了模糊综合评判法,它具有很强的实用性,可以广泛地用于各工程中。构造了基坑风险评判矩阵,对深基坑安全等级进行二级评判,运用模糊综合评判法定量计算了基坑的风险等级,并结合上海港国际客运中心深基坑工程,用模糊综合评判法进行了实例分析,所得结果符合工程实际情况,有利于提高深基坑整体安全水平,为工程提供了一些参考价值。

MIS项目的综合风险评估模型

软件项目开发过程中一直存在着种种的不确定因素,严重影响着项目的顺利完成和提交.软件界已经认识到,项目开发管理中应单独注意这些不确定因素,用有效的方法尽可能地将它们的影响降到最小.于是软件项目风险管理的研究应运而生.

基于因素计点法构建护理岗位评价指标体系

目的以因素计点法为基础,构建护理岗位评价指标体系。方法采用Delphi法对22名专家进行2轮咨询,运用层次分析法定量分析一级指标和二级指标的权重,运用小组讨论法对二级指标进行等级划分及等级赋值。结果专家的积极系数大于0.9;权威系数为0.824;一级指标的协调系数为0.279,二级指标的协调系数为0.336;护理岗位评价指标体系包括5个一级指标和20个二级指标,并基于因素计点法确定各指标的等级赋值。结论护理岗位评价指标体系各指标的专家意见集中,研究结果可靠,可为护理岗位的价值评价、人员任用提供客观的、可量化的依据。

泌尿系统腔镜碎石取石术后尿源性脓毒血症预警评估指标体系的构建

目的:构建泌尿系统腔镜碎石取石术后尿源性脓毒血症预警评估指标体系,以帮助临床医护工作者早识别、早预警尿源性脓毒血症。方法:采用文献研究法和德尔菲专家咨询法,确定泌尿系统腔镜碎石取石术后尿源性脓毒血症危险因素,构建预警评估指标体系。结果:2轮专家咨询问卷的有效回收率均为100%,专家权威系数分别为0.85,0.86,变异系数分别为0.22,0.19。最终形成的尿源性脓毒血症预警评估指标体系包括基本情况、实验室检查、影像学检查、手术方式、术中情况、术后情况6个模块,共24个指标。结论:构建的泌尿系统腔镜碎石取石术后尿源性脓毒血症预警评估指标体系能够对病人术前、术中及术后情况进行连续性评估,评估内容较为全面、科学、客观,可为医护人员识别术后尿源性脓毒血症的高风险病人提供依据。

肿瘤病人术中急性压疮危险因素评估指标的聚类分析

[目的]探讨肿瘤病人术中急性压疮危险因素评估指标的分类,并筛选出典型指标。[方法]对91例发生术中压疮的肿瘤病人以及364例未发生压疮的病人进行压疮危险因素调查,采用聚类分析和 Logistic回归进行危险因素分析。[结果]肿瘤病人术中急性压疮危险因素评估指标可聚为3类,第Ⅰ类:美国麻醉师协会(ASA)评分、心功能分级、年龄、血管活性药物、术中变换体位、糖尿病;第Ⅱ类:性别、体重指数、术前皮肤情况、血清白白;第Ⅲ类:糖皮质激素、术中失血量、实际手术时间、术中低血压。每一类的典型指标分别为 ASA 评分、体重指数、实际手术时间。Logistic回归分析显示,ASA 评分、使用糖皮质激素、心功能分级、实际手术时间、术中低血压、体重指数、术中失血量7个指标是肿瘤病人发生术中急性压疮的危险因素(P<0.05)。[结论]聚类分析与 Logistic回归分析具有较好的一致性,聚类分析筛选的指标更加简化,可以排除部分有相关性的指标,为建立手术室压疮快速筛查评估指标提供了依据,也为护理相关危险因素的分类和筛选提供了可借鉴的方法。