Spatial Analysis of Risks and Vulnerabilities to Major Hazards in Madagascar Using the Multi-Criteria Method Based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

Natural disasters are not negligible factors that have significant impacts on a country’s development. Madagascar cannot escape cyclones, floods and drought due to its geographical situation. The objective in this work is to assess the risks and vulnerability to these hazards in order to strengthen the resilience of the Malagasy population. Our approach is based on multi-criteria spatial analysis using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The results form decision spatial information that can be used at the strategic level of natural risk and disaster management. This work focuses on the degree of vulnerability and it was found in this study that the Androy and Atsimo-Atsinanana regions are the most vulnerable to major hazards in Madagascar not only because of their exposure to risk but also because of their very low socio-economic status.

Risk Analysis of Chemical Hazards Based on the Case of EU Children’s Products Recalled and Study on the Reasonable Limitation of Harmful Element in Toys

The trade situation about China’s export of toy products to the EU was introduced. The recall characteristics of China’s toy products by the EU “Safety Gate” in terms of recall frequency, notified countries, taken measures, and reasons for recall were analyzed in this paper, and the risk factors of human health of unqualified products in terms of chemical hazards were studied in this paper. It is found that phthalate, boron, plumbum and cadmium were the main factors. Assessment of risk for boron in toys was conducted. It is suggested to limit the boron element in Slime: the limit of migration of boron in Slime toys for 3- to 6-year-old children shall be less than 704 mg/kg, and the limitation of migration of boron in Slime toys for 7- to 12-year-old children shall be less than 1268 mg/kg.

Application of Hazard Vulnerability Analysis Based on Kaiser Model in Neonatal Breast Milk Management

Objective:To analyze the existing risks in breast milk management at the neonatal department and provide corresponding countermeasures.Methods:22 risk events were identified in 7 risk links in the process of bottle-feeding of breast milk.Hazard Vulnerability Analysis based on the Kaiser model was applied to investigate and evaluate the risk events.Results:High-risk events include breast milk quality inspection,hand hygiene during collection,disinfection of collectors,cold chain management,hand hygiene during the reception,breast milk closed-loop management,and post-collection disposal.Root cause analysis of high-risk events was conducted and breast milk management strategies outside the hospital and within the neonatal department were proposed.Conclusion:Hazard Vulnerability Analysis based on the Kaiser model can identify and assess neonatal breast milk management risks effectively,which helps improve the management of neonatal breast milk.It is conducive to the safe development and promotion of bottle feeding of breast milk for neonates,ensuring the quality of medical services and the safety of children.

Characteristics Analysis and Risk Assessment of Extreme Water Levels Based on 60-Year Observation Data in Xiamen, China

Extreme water levels are related to astronomical tides and storm surges.Eleven typhoon systems,which have caused extreme water level rises,were selected based on 60-yr water level data from the Xiamen tide gauge station.In these 11 typhoon systems,the astronomical tide component accounts for 71%-95%of the total water level.The Gumbel distribution of extreme water level rise was estimated,and the impact of typhoon surges on water levels during the return period was analyzed.The ex-treme tide levels caused by typhoons Herb(1996)and Dujuan(2015)are much higher than those of other typhoons and correspond to the return period of 76 yr and 71 yr,respectively.The differences of sea levels in the presence and absence of these two typhoons in the 10-100 yr return period are 5.8-11.1 cm.For the 100-yr return period,the total risks within 10,25,50,and 100 yr increase by 94.3%,85.4%,72.9%,and 54.4%,respectively,if the Herb and Dujuan are not considered.Assuming that typhoon Herb(1996)occurred during the highest astronomical tide,it will produce a water level higher than that of the 1000-yr return period.Sea level rise has an important influence on the water level return period,and the contribution of nonlinear sea level rise in the next 100 yr is estimated to be 10.34%.

Investigation of Enterprise Informationization Project Risk

The enterprise informationization （El） project has already become modernization level and synthesis power of the enterprise. However, information project risk. In order to reduce the El project risk, it is necessary to adopt reasonable incentive and constraint effectively and to structure perfect market environment. an urgent work to raise the asymmetry increases the EI investment mode, to carry on incentive and constraint effectively and to structure perfect market environment.

Experimental and Numerical Analysis of Rock Block Stability Using a Remotely Positioned Laser Doppler Vibrometer

This paper examines a new method of evaluating the stability of a rock slope using a remotely positioned LDV （laser Doppler vibrometer）. We conducted an experiment using physical models and performed a numerical analysis to evaluate the new method. The physical model included： （l） concrete blocks on an artificial soil slope with two block sizes and three slopes; （2） concrete blocks bonded to the concrete base with different contact area. The LDV measurements agreed with conventional seismometer measurements. The dominant frequency of the blocks varied with the stability and dominant frequency and the amplitude varied with the block size. The numerical model was used to examine a concrete block adhered to a concrete base with different contact areas. The dominant frequency of the blocks determined using the numerical model agreed with those obtained from the physical experiments. We analyzed different sized blocks to examine the scaling effects. The dominant frequency of the blocks was inversely related to the block size. These results demonstrated the effectiveness of LDV for evaluating the stability of rock slopes and cleared the block size scaling effects.

Review and Prospects of the Global Earthquake Model Project ( GEM)

This paper reviewed the main target,functions,tool( Open Quake software) and research achievements of the Global Earthquake Model( GEM) Foundation,and made a simple prospect on the development and application of projects of GEM in the future. Learning from GEM and Open Quake is helpful to improve the seismic hazard model of China and enhance the scientificity of the seismic hazard assessment for metropolitans and major engineering facilities near major seismogenic structures.

Identifying sources and hazardous risks of heavy metals in topsoils of rapidly urbanizing East China

With rapid economic and social development, soil contamination arising from heavy metals has become a serious problem in many parts of China. We collected a total of 445 samples （0-20 cm） at the nodes of a 2 kmx2 km grid in surface soils of Rizhao city, and analyzed sources and risk pattern of 10 heavy metals （As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn）. The combination of Multivariate statistics analysis and Geostatistical methods was applied to identify the sources and hazardous risk of heavy metals in soils. The result indicated that Cr, Ni, Co, Mn, Cu, and As were mainly controlled by parent materials and came from natural sources. Cd and Hg originated from anthropogenic sources. Pb and Zn, belonging to different groups in multivariate analysis, were associated with joint effect of parent materials and human inputs. Ordinary Kriging and Indicator Kriging suggested that single element and elements association from the same principal components had similar spatial distribution. Through comprehensive assessment on all elements, we also found the high risk areas were located in the populated urban areas and western study area, which could be attributed to the higher geological background in the western part and strong human interference in the eastern part.

Can Strategies to Cope with Hazard Shocks be Explained by At-Risk Households' Socioeconomic Asset Profile? Evidence from Tropical Cyclon-Prone Coastal Bangladesh

This article documents the results of an empirical investigation on the complex interplay between diverse coping mechanisms and the socioeconomic asset profiles of coastal households at risk. Focusing on household-level perceptions and responses to cyclone hazards, a case study was carried out in a poor area in Bangladesh that is prone to natural hazards. We developed and tested our own analytical models based on the asset approach. We conducted a face-to-face household survey in southwestern coastal Bangladesh, in the Koyra sub-district, in late 2009.We asked 360 households affected by the May 2009 tropical Cyclone Aila about their hazard perceptions, preparedness, coping practices, and socioeconomic assets. The results suggest that the majority of households at risk perceive an increasing trend of different climate hazards,with a distinct dominance of tropical cyclones, storm surges, and flash floods in the study area, which resulted in a yearly average economic damage of USD 144 for each household in the first year after Aila. However, such damage is significantly and inversely correlated with the number of adopted coping practices. Significant and systematic differences exist between upstream and downstream households in the study area with respect to hazard perception, hazard induced damages, asset accessibility,and adopted diversified coping practices. The empirical findings suggest that the degree of adoption of coping practices depends primarily on elements of socioeconomic asset profile and the duration of the consequences of cyclone hazards. Disaster preparedness training seems to improve at-risk households' degree of information access and eventually leads them to adopt more coping practices to reduce adverse impacts of climate hazards. Area-specific practical modules on coping practices should be incorporated in curricula of disaster preparedness training to make people at risk more resilient to hazard shocks.

Causes and Changes of Drought in China:Research Progress and Prospects

Drought is one of the most serious and extensive natural hazards in the world.Subject to monsoon climate variability,China is particularly influenced by drought hazards,especially meteorological drought.Based on a comprehensive understanding of the current status of international drought research,this paper systematically reviews the history and achievements of drought research in China since the founding of the People’s Republic of China,from four main perspectives:characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of historical and recent drought events,drought formation mechanism and change trend,drought hazard risk,and the particular flash drought.The progress and problems of drought research in China are analyzed and future prospects are proposed,with emphasis on the multi-factor synergetic effect for drought formation;the effect of land-atmosphere interaction;identification,monitoring,and prediction of flash drought;categorization of drought and characteristics among various types of drought;the agricultural drought development;drought response to climate warming;and assessment of drought hazard risks.It is suggested that strengthening scientific experimental research on drought in China is imperative.The present review is conducive to strategic planning of drought research and application,and may facilitate further development of drought research in China.

SIRENE: A Spatial Data Infrastructure to Enhance Communities' Resilience to Disaster-Related Emergency

Planning in advance to prepare for and respond to a natural hazard-induced disaster-related emergency is a key action that allows decision makers to mitigate unexpected impacts and potential damage. To further this aim, a collaborative, modular, and information and communications technology-based Spatial Data Infrastructure(SDI)called SIRENE—Sistema Informativo per la Preparazione e la Risposta alle Emergenze(Information System for Emergency Preparedness and Response) is designed and implemented to access and share, over the Internet, relevant multisource and distributed geospatial data to support decision makers in reducing disaster risks. SIRENE flexibly searches and retrieves strategic information from local and/or remote repositories to cope with different emergency phases. The system collects, queries, and analyzes geographic information provided voluntarily by observers directly in the field(volunteered geographic information(VGI) reports) to identify potentially critical environmental conditions. SIRENE can visualize and cross-validate institutional and research-based data against VGI reports,as well as provide disaster managers with a decision support system able to suggest the mode and timing of intervention, before and in the aftermath of different types of emergencies, on the basis of the available information and in agreement with the laws in force at the national andregional levels. Testing installations of SIRENE have been deployed in 18 hilly or mountain municipalities(12 located in the Italian Central Alps of northern Italy, and six in the Umbria region of central Italy), which have been affected by natural hazard-induced disasters over the past years(landslides, debris flows, floods, and wildfire) and experienced significant social and economic losses.