Natural Disaster Risk Monitoring for Immovable Cultural Relics Based on Digital Twin

Natural disaster risk monitoring is an important task for disaster prevention and reduction.In the case of immovable cultural relics,however,the feedback mechanism,risk factors,monitoring logic,and monitoring indicators of natural disaster risk monitoring are complex.How to achieve intelligent perception and monitoring of natural disaster risk for immovable cultural relics has always been a focus and a challenge for researchers.Based on the analysis of the concepts and issues related to the natural disaster risk of immovable cultural relics,this paper proposes a framework for natural disaster risk monitoring for immovable cultural relics based on the digital twin.This framework focuses on risk monitoring,including the physical entities of natural disaster risk for immovable cultural relics,monitoring indicators,and virtual entity construction.A platform for monitoring the natural disaster risk of immovable cultural relics is proposed.Using the Puzhou Ancient City Site as a test bed,the proposed concept can be used for monitoring the natural disaster risk of immovable cultural relics at different scales.

Study of Commercial Bank Risk Monitoring Model in Individual Consumption Credit

With the development of individual consumption credit (ICC) in China, commercial banks have been exposed to more and more risks. The loan failure has been an important problem that the banking must face and revolve. This paper develops a factor system to explain how the borrower's risk is affected, and then establishes a risk monitoring model with AHP to pre-warn the banks how much the risk is.

Global Rainstorm Disaster Risk Monitoring Based on Satellite Remote Sensing

Methods of rainstorm disaster risk monitoring(RDRM)based on retrieved satellite rainfall data are studied.Due to significant regional differences,the global rainstorm disasters are not only affected by geography(such as topography and surface properties),but also by climate events.It is necessary to study rainstorm disaster-causing factors,hazard-formative environments,and hazard-affected incidents based on the climate distribution of precipitation and rainstorms worldwide.According to a global flood disaster dataset for the last 20 years,the top four flood disaster causes(accounting for 96.8%in total)related to rainstorms,from most to least influential,are heavy rain(accounting for 61.6%),brief torrential rain(16.7%),monsoonal rain(9.4%),and tropical cyclone/storm rain(9.1%).A dynamic global rainstorm disaster threshold is identified by using global climate data based on 3319 rainstorm-induced floods and rainfall data retrieved by satellites in the last 20 years.Taking the 7-day accumulated rainfall,3-and 12-h maximum rainfall,24-h rainfall,rainstorm threshold,and others as the main parameters,a rainstorm intensity index is constructed.Calculation and global mapping of hazard-formative environmental factor and hazard-affected body factor of rainstorm disasters are performed based on terrain and river data,population data,and economic data.Finally,a satellite remote sensing RDRM model is developed,incorporating the above three factors(rainstorm intensity index,hazard-formative environment factor,and hazard-affected body factor).The results show that the model can well capture the rainstorm disasters that happened in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China and in South Asia in 2020.

Thoughts of a travelling ecologist 14. Structure-function conflation in environmental risk assessment and monitoring

Recently,I attended a conference organised by the European Food Safety Authority in the beautiful and prosperous Italian city of Parma.The overall topic of the conference was risk assessment,and the program included a section on aspects of environmental risk assessment.In various areas,including the evalution of the effects of pesticide applications,invasive organisms or genetically modified plants(Arpaia et al.,2014)preparing an environmental risk assessment is an obviously relevant exercise.

The Role of the National Significant Seismic Monitoring and Protection Regions Institution:From the Perspective of the RiskSociety Theory

Earthquake disaster risk,as a typical social disaster risk,is one of the most important risks in modern Chinese society.This study gives definitions of the institution,describes the formation history,the connotations and development and analyzes its role in the control of major social risks caused by earthquakes.Finally,the paper presents recommendations for continuous improvement of this institution under the guidance of risk society theory,and for its application to the government reform and social governance.

Managing Public Health Risks Using Air Monitoring at a Former Manufactured Gas Plant Site

Monitoring emissions from a former Manufactured Gas Plant (MGP) site during remediation was used to manage risks associated with inhalation of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) and contaminated particulates acting as an exposure conduit for Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals. This risk management case study presents a USEPA-approved air monitoring program implemented to manage public health risks during remediation at a former MGP site located in the southeast United States. Risk-based Acceptable Air Concentrations (AACs) were developed and a sampling regimen established to monitor potential emissions to maintain contaminant concentrations below the AACs. The exposure duration used was based on a twelve-month project duration and an exposure time of 24 hours per day;equations, toxicity values and sources were based on USEPA’s Regional Screening Levels. A total 535 twenty-four hour time weighted samples (269 VOC samples and 266 PAH samples) were collected over the project duration. Only minor levels of VOCs and PAHs were detected and no results were above the AACs. These timeweighted averages demonstrate that the real-time air monitoring and control measures implemented at the site effectively maintained concentrations below the AACs and were protective of public health.

Risk assessment of CO_2 injection processes and storage in carboniferous formations:a review

Over the last decades,people from almost all over the world have realized that it is necessary to quickly develop strategies for the control and reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions.Among various GHGs,carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most abundant GHG.Its underground storage involves less risk and lower levels of dangerousness.The paper briefly describes the most effective technologies available in the market for background processes to storage (capture and transport) CO2,as well as the more secure solutions for its storage,in particular for the geological storage in carboniferous formations.This paper also outlines the methodologies for the risk assessment involved in storage of CO2,with a particular focus on cases where the injection is made into unminable coal seams and in abandoned coalmines.Methodologies used for risk analysis are described in detail with particular emphasis on Bayesian network (BN).Some applications regarding the risk assessment of CO2 injection processes and CO2 storage in carboniferous formations and contamination of aquifers are presented and analyzed.Finally,based on the applications of BN,several conclusions are drawn.

Efficient Bayesian networks for slope safety evaluation with large quantity monitoring information

New sensing and wireless technologies generate massive data. This paper proposes an efficient Bayesian network to evaluate the slope safety using large-quantity field monitoring information with underlying physical mechanisms. A Bayesian network for a slope involving correlated material properties and dozens of observational points is constructed.

行政法视角下的食品安全风险监测与评估

我国已经初步建立了食品安全风险监测与评估相关的法律制度,国家食品安全风险监测网也已经建成。该法律制度属于行政法范畴,具有行政法的属性。从行政法的视角分析,现行风险监测与评估机制在信息共享、风险预警、联合执法等方面还存在一些问题。为能够更好地保障食品安全,应该重构风险监测与评估法律制度,强化风险意识,改进程序设定,不断完善监测网络,促进食品安全风险监测和食品安全监督抽检系统并轨。科学高效的风险监测与评估有利于及时发现食品安全风险,引导制定食品安全标准,帮助监管部门对于食品安全进行分级管理,从而进一步规范我国的食品市场秩序,为人们提供放心满意的食品。

城市生命线安全运行风险监测及响应研究

本文介绍了城市生命线建设背景,分析其运行风险。阐述了城市生命线安全运行风险监测的感知系统及应用平台的构建。研究了风险预警的研判分析及协同处置流程,实现了风险事件及时高效的响应处置。

基于美欧医疗器械上市后法规要求对我国建立医疗器械警戒制度的思考

本文旨在深入探讨美国和欧盟的医疗器械上市后监管制度,包括风险监管理念、监管法规体系、上市后临床研究、质量管理体系等,总结出开发风险监测工具、落实风险管理、采用合并报告模式、公开风险信息等经验,为我国医疗器械行业有序发展提供参考。我国可以借鉴美欧医疗器械上市后的监管实践,从提高监管机构能力、建设监测哨点和强化法规框架等方面,建立和试点医疗器械警戒制度。

2022年青岛市食品安全风险监测结果分析

目的:了解青岛市食品中的主要污染物以及有害因素的污染现状,及时发现食品安全隐患。方法:按照《2022年青岛市食品安全风险监测实施方案》及《国家食品污染和有害因素风险监测工作手册》中的相关规定进行采样、检测。结果:2022年共监测8大类食品,采集共980份样品,合格率为95.00%。其中,化学污染物与有害因素监测合格率为91.30%,食源性致病菌监测合格率为98.01%。结论:青岛市食品安全水平保持稳定向好,但仍然存在食品安全隐患,较为突出的问题为海产品中的重金属污染。

湖南省2023年5—6月跨省调入饲养用牛羊追溯调查与布鲁氏菌病监测

为评估分析外省份调入湖南省饲养用牛羊引入布鲁氏菌病(以下简称“布病”)的风险,对“湖南省动物卫生监督信息平台”2023年5—6月跨省调入饲养用牛羊开展监测排查,并就其来源、去向及布病检测结果等进行调查统计。结果显示:全省共调入饲养用牛羊270批次12850头/只,涉及19个省/自治区/直辖市,其中13个省份为原布病防控一类地区;有164批次牛羊来源于布病免疫区,占60.74%;有96批次牛羊实际用于继续饲养,占35.56%;采集牛羊血清样品1396份,检出布病抗体阳性7份。结果表明,湖南省存在牛羊布病输入性风险,应加大调运监管力度,减少牛羊布病从高风险地区向低风险地区传播的风险。

基于文本数据的灾害信息风险监测与预警集成方法研究

基于灾害信息的文本数据,该文提出一种风险监测与预警集成方法,以提高灾害信息风险监测效率及监测支持预警的针对性。首先,运用八爪鱼数据采集器采集和处理灾害信息的文本数据;其次,运用BTM主题模型构建灾害信息风险监测模型,得到主题热度趋势并确定具有高风险且亟待预警的话题;然后,提出灾害信息风险预警指标体系和预警等级判定方法,计算所确定话题的风险综合指标预警加权值,并结合预警区间判定预警等级;最后,以2021年“7·20”郑州特大暴雨灾害信息的风险监测和预警为例进行实验分析,验证所提方法的可行性。研究表明,该方法可将灾害信息的文本数据贯穿于风险监测与预警两个过程,有助于为监测结果更有针对性地支持预警工作提供参考。

高校实验室安全风险监控融合预警与数字化决策系统

高校实验室风险点与危险源密集,人机环管因素持续变化,且人员流动快、前沿探索多,导致风险隐患动态识别难、预判预警精准度不高、风险管控精细化水平不足。围绕实验室安全风险精准辨识与快速响应这一关键问题,基于实验室安全风险—隐患—事故演化规律,建立安全风险监测监控指标体系,运用物联网、人工智能、大数据分析等技术,开发安全隐患视频图像智能辨识算法,研发多源信息感知融合分析技术,研究应急响应辅助决策方法,从而构建“云边端”一体化的融合监控预警与数字化决策系统,并在学校安全工程学院实验室应用。实践表明,该系统能够对实验室进行全时间—空间—要素的多维度持续覆盖,及时发现风险隐患并有效应急响应,有助于提升实验室安全风险管控与应急能力,具有一定推广应用价值。

食品安全风险监测计划何以高效决策?——基于组织规范构造的视角

食品安全风险监测计划决策的时效性、科学性乃至执行效率,往往受制于相关政府职能部门的组织机构建制水平。有必要基于组织规范构造的视角,围绕所涉政府职能部门的权责配置与职权行使事项,来系统性约束和保障其机构能力。一方面,应针对专有权责与共有权责来设定其权责配置规范,以彰显相应职能部门在该类决策过程中的差异性决策设计与多元化决策考量。另一方面,应针对监测计划设置与监测信息传递来设定其职权行使规范,以厘清相应职能部门在该类决策过程中的内部决策定位与外部决策整合。最终尝试依托复合决策维度中、决策要素驱动下的协同履职,来明晰实现高效决策的可行规范进路。

基于生成对抗网络的驾驶行为风险监测方法

针对真实驾驶场景下驾驶行为风险难以准确判断的问题,提出一种基于生成对抗网络的生成序列评估框架,旨在通过车辆行驶状态数据与驾驶场景信息匹配度评估来提高驾驶行为风险判断的准确性。构建真实驾驶场景数据匹配序列框架,利用生成对抗网络增加不同驾驶场景的数据量,提出一个驾驶员个性化情景感知样本数据集,对比分析真实数据和生成数据,并验证生成对抗网络检索与生成框架在匹配车辆行驶状态数据与驾驶场景信息方面的有效性和准确性。采用无监督学习生成评估框架,结合自回归模型中的监督训练控制策略来解决数据扩增问题,并通过迭代更新样本序列进行策略集成以保持模型鲁棒性。实验结果表明,相较于现有方法,所提研究框架在识别危险驾驶状态方面具有明显优势,为车辆行驶状态数据与驾驶场景信息的匹配评估提供了一种新的视角。

我国经济风险的实时监测:结构性拐点判别与预警信息辨识

实时监测经济风险、判别经济风险演化方向,对于促进高质量发展和高水平安全良性互动具有重要意义。本文运用马尔科夫区制转移偏正态分布模型甄别经济风险的结构变迁路径,并基于驱动结构分解、概率分布矩、概率密度函数以及尾部风险等多维视阈,有效辨析经济和金融状况对于经济风险的预警功能。研究发现,首先,随着经济增长概率分布的风险区制由低到高,经济增长增速预期降低、波动区间扩张以及下行风险升高。其次,经济风险在2012年存在显著的结构性拐点,在突变点后,偏度系数由正转负,经济步入长期的下行风险通道。此外,经济风险在2019年以及2021年前后存在阶段性拐点,短期内经济上行概率较高。然后,经济风险的动态演化路径表现出显著的“事件驱动”特征,在极端事件冲击下,经济下行风险有所增加。最后,经济和金融状况对于经济风险的预警功能存在明显的异质性,其中经济状况无法提供经济风险的预警信息,而金融状况能够灵敏地识别与捕捉经济增长的风险信息,且在经济高风险时期,金融状况的预警功能更为显著。

基于数据驱动的文物环境风险状态评估方法研究

在博物馆文物保护中,对环境风险监测和风险变量的及时定位有重要意义。然而,由于各个文物展馆的差异性,很难将某一展馆的环境风险划分标准应用于其他展馆,甚至无法应用到同一展馆的不同类型文物。除此之外,当风险出现时,博物馆无法及时锁定影响因素,延长了风险排除所需的时间。因此,结合上海博物馆江南文化艺术临展的连续监测数据,提出了一种针对纸质文物的环境风险状态评估二级监测框架,并按需求划分为“优、良、中、差”四个等级进行风险监测。首先,使用“优”数据集建立主成分分析(principal component analysis,PCA)模型并构建控制限用以挑选“优”数据,“差”数据集通过已有的PCA模型得到判断“差”等级的控制限;然后,使用“非优非差”数据集建立ReliefF-PCA模型并得到“良”“中”等级划分的控制限;最后,对应PCA模型和ReliefF-PCA模型分别使用贡献图和基于ReliefF算法计算权值的加权贡献图,以此量化风险,初步定位对环境指标存在影响的风险变量。通过两个评价模型构建的监测框架,为文物保存环境质量的评估和后续馆藏环境调控提供了一种更为科学的方案,有助于提高整个文物保护系统的效率。