EXPECTED DISCOUNTED PENALTY FUNCTION AT RUIN FOR RISK PROCESS PERTURBED BY DIFFUSION UNDER INTEREST FORCE

In this article, the risk process perturbed by diffusion under interest force is considered, the continuity and twice continuous differentiability for Фδ（u,w） are discussed,the Feller expression and the integro-differential equation satisfied by Фδ （u ,w） are derived. Finally, the decomposition of Фδ（u,w） is discussed, and some properties of each decomposed part of Фδ（u,w） are obtained. The results can be reduced to some ones in Gerber and Landry＇s,Tsai and Willmot＇s, and Wang＇s works by letting parameter δ and （or） a be zero.

THE JOINT DISTRIBUTIONS OF SOME ACTUARIAL DIAGNOSTICS FOR THE JUMP-DIFFUSION RISK PROCESS

In this article, the joint distributions of several actuarial diagnostics which are important to insurers＇ running for the jump-diffusion risk process are examined. They include the ruin time, the time of the surplus process leaving zero ultimately （simply, the ultimately leaving-time）, the surplus immediately prior to ruin, the supreme profits before ruin, the supreme profits and deficit until it leaves zero ultimately and so on. The explicit expressions for their distributions are obtained mainly by the various properties of Levy process, such as the homogeneous strong Markov property and the spatial homogeneity property etc, moveover, the many properties for Brownian motion.

Markovian risk process

A Markovian risk process is considered in this paper, which is the generalization of the classical risk model. It is proper that a risk process with large claims is modelled as the Markovian risk model. In such a model, the occurrence of claims is described by a point process {N（t）}t≥0 with N（t） being the number of jumps during the interval （0, t] for a Markov jump process. The ruin probability ψ（u） of a company facing such a risk model is mainly studied. An integral equation satisfied by the ruin probability function ψ（u） is obtained and the bounds for the convergence rate of the ruin probability ψ（u） are given by using a generalized renewal technique developed in the paper.

Integro-Differential Equations for a Jump-Diffusion Risk Process with Dependence between Claim Sizes and Claim Intervals

The classical Poisson risk model in ruin theory assumed that the interarrival times between two successive claims are mutually independent, and the claim sizes and claim intervals are also mutually independent. In this paper, we modify the classical Poisson risk model to describe the surplus process of an insurance portfolio. We consider a jump-diffusion risk process compounded by a geometric Brownian motion, and assume that the claim sizes and claim intervals are dependent. Using the properties of conditional expectation, we establish integro-differential equations for the Gerber-Shiu function and the ultimate ruin probability.

Mapping Climate Services for Disaster Risk Management: A Systematic Review and Research Gaps from a Policy Process Perspective

Climate services (CS) are crucial for mitigating and managing the impacts and risks associated with climate-induced disasters. While evidence over the past decade underscores their effectiveness across various domains, particularly agriculture, to maximize their potential, it is crucial to identify emerging priority areas and existing research gaps for future research agendas. As a contribution to this effort, this paper employs the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology to review the state-of-the-art in the field of climate services for disaster risk management. A comprehensive search across five literature databases combined with a snowball search method using ResearchRabbit was conducted and yielded 242 peer-reviewed articles, book sections, and reports over 2013-2023 after the screening process. The analysis revealed flood, drought, and food insecurity as major climate-related disasters addressed in the reviewed literature. Major climate services addressed included early warning systems, (sub)seasonal forecasts and impact-based warnings. Grounded in the policy processes’ theoretical perspective, the main focus identified and discussed three prevailing policy-oriented priority areas: 1) development of climate services, 2) use-adoption-uptake, and 3) evaluation of climate services. In response to the limitations of the prevalent supply-driven and top-down approach to climate services promotion, co-production emerges as a cross-cutting critical aspect of the identified priority areas. Despite the extensive research in the field, more attention is needed, particularly pronounced in the science-policy interface perspective, which in practice bridges scientific knowledge and policy decisions for effective policy processes. This perspective offers a valuable analytical lens as an entry point for further investigation. Hence, future research agendas would generate insightful evidence by scrutinizing this critical aspect given its importance to institutions and climate services capacity, to better understand intricate facets of the development and the integration of climate services into disaster risk management.

Physicochemical Properties and Health Risks of Informal E-Waste Processing at Alaba International Market in Lagos, Nigeria

This study investigated the groundwater quality and health risks associated with informal e-waste processing in the Alaba International Market in Lagos, Nigeria. Twenty-two groundwater samples were collected from hand-dug wells in the market area and analyzed for physicochemical properties and heavy metal concentrations. The results showed that the groundwater quality was poor, with high levels of heavy metals, including cadmium, lead, and chromium. The health index (HI) for children and adults was above the tolerable threshold levels, indicating a potential health risk to the population. Principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to identify the sources of metals in groundwater, and the results showed that informal e-waste processing was a significant source of contamination. The study highlights the need for effective management strategies to mitigate the potential health risks associated with informal e-waste processing and ensure public health and environmental safety.

Needs and Challenges of Nigeria Petroleum Industry in Assessing Process Safety Cumulative Risk

A cross-sectional exploratory assessment of the needs and challenges of petroleum industry in Nigeria, in assessing process safety cumulative risk for major accidents prevention was investigated. A purposive cum random sampling technique was used in this study, among selected petroleum companies operating in Nigeria. Survey questionnaires were received from 216 participants made up of asset integrity engineers/operators, process safety experts, production safety professionals in the petroleum industry in Nigeria. Data analyses were carried out to cover descriptive and inferential statistics. Overall, the study recognized that assessing process safety cumulative risk is not a simple process due largely to the changing nature of safety critical barriers degradation data. The study result showed four main challenges faced by petroleum industries in Nigeria, in assessing process safety cumulative risk: 1) the study showed that 94% of the respondents agreed that there is limited accessibility to safety critical barriers degradation data (little automation). Also 2) 94% of the respondents accounted for poor knowledge of process safety cumulative risk is and agreed it to be of low rating. The result further showed that 3) 90% of the respondents demonstrated that there are no guidance and procedures in assessing process safety cumulative risk and finally 4) 92% of the respondents reported that there is no real-time risk visualization model/ tool. Addressing these issues and challenges by the petroleum industries in the study area, will lead to successful assessment of process safety cumulative risk, thereby reducing the risk of major accidents.

RUIN PROBLEM FOR A CLASS OF RISK PROCESSES PERTURBED BY DIFFUSION

In this paper,a class of risk processes perturbed by diffusion are considered. The Lundberg inequalities for the ruin probability are obtained.The size of the Lundberg exponents for different kinds of risk model is compared. The numerical illustration for the impact of the parameters on the ruin probability is given.

Ruin Theory for the Risk Process Described by PDMPs

Abstract In this paper we consider the risk process that is described by a piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP). We first present the construction of the risk process and then discuss some ruin problems for this new kind of risk model.

A Class of Delayed Renewal Risk Processes with a Threshold Dividend Strategy

This paper considers a class of delayed renewal risk processes with a threshold dividend strategy. The main result is an expression of the Gerber-Shiu expected discounted penalty function in the delayed renewal risk model in terms of the corresponding Cerber-Shiu function in the ordinary renewal model. Subsequently, this relationship is considered in more detail in both the stationary renewal risk model and the ruin probability.

Asymptotic Behavior of Generalized Risk Processes

In this paper,the asymptotic behavior of generalized risk processes without any momentassumptions on the controlling process is described.

HV Process Model of Software Development

Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC) is one of the major ingredients for the development of efficient software systems within a time frame and low-cost involvement. From the literature, it is evident that there are various kinds of process models that are used by the software industries for the development of small, medium and long-term software projects, but many of them do not cover risk management. It is quite obvious that the improper selection of the software development process model leads to failure of the software products as it is time bound activity. In the present work, a new software development process model is proposed which covers the risks at any stage of the development of the software product. The model is named a Hemant-Vipin (HV) process model and may be helpful for the software industries for development of the efficient software products and timely delivery at the end of the client. The efficiency of the HV process model is observed by considering various kinds of factors like requirement clarity, user feedback, change agility, predictability, risk identification, practical implementation, customer satisfaction, incremental development, use of ready-made components, quick design, resource organization and many more and found through a case study that the presented approach covers many of parameters in comparison of the existing process models. .

Ruin probability for correlated negative risk sums model with Erlang processes

This paper studies a Sparre Andersen negative risk sums model in which the distribution of ＂interclaim＂ time is that of a sum of n independent exponential random variables. Thus, the Erlang（n） model is a special case. On this basis the correlated negative risk sums process with the common Erlang process is considered. Integro-differential equations with boundary conditions for ψ（u） are given. For some special cases a closed-form expression for ψ（u） is derived.

Eurozation: Process and Risks

The European Monetary Union (EMU) appeared unprecedentedly on the world scene as 12 European countries voluntarily gave up part of their sovereignty to create a regional monetary system. The introduction of euro currency is undoubtedly a crucial step toward further European integration.

Risk Assessment M ode of Sale-Leaseback——Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

Sale-leaseback is paid special focus on for its great application in China in recent years.By giving a detailed analysis,an analysis of the features of sale-leaseback and a study of the risks of it are given in this paper.Then a quantitative analysis of commercial real estate sale-leaseback is carried out.The scientific theoretical analysis is provided in this paper for risk assessment in commercial real estate sale-leaseback mode in China.An effective approach is put forward for sale-leaseback project evaluation and prevention of risk.A useful means is given to supervise commerciai real estate sale-leaseback mode for relevant departments and a certain contribution is made to a further sound development of commercial real estate sale-leaseback mode.

Risk Management of Clinical Reference Dosimetry of a Large Hospital Network Using Statistical Process Control

Managing TG-51 reference dosimetry in a large hospital network can be a challenging task. The objectives of this study are to investigate the effectiveness of using Statistical Process Control (SPC) to manage TG-51 workflow in such a network. All the sites in the network performed the annual reference dosimetry in water according to TG-51. These data were used to cross-calibrate the same ion chambers in plastic phantoms for monthly QA output measurements. An energy-specific dimensionless beam quality cross-calibration factor, , was derived to monitor the process across multiple sites. The SPC analysis was then performed to obtain the mean, , standard deviation, σk, the Upper Control Limit (UCL) and Lower Control Limit (LCL) in each beam. This process was first applied to 15 years of historical data at the main campus to assess the effectiveness of the process. A two-year prospective study including all 30 linear accelerators spread over the main campus and seven satellites in the network followed. The ranges of the control limits (±3σ) were found to be in the range of 1.7% - 2.6% and 3.3% - 4.2% for the main campus and the satellite sites respectively. The wider range in the satellite sites was attributed to variations in the workflow. Standardization of workflow was also found to be effective in narrowing the control limits. The SPC is effective in identifying variations in the workflow and was shown to be an effective tool in managing large network reference dosimetry.

Applications of Mogulskii, and Kurtz-Feng Large Deviation Results to Risk Reserve Processes with Aggregate Claims

In this paper we examine the large deviations principle (LDP) for sequences of classic Cramér-Lundberg risk processes under suitable time and scale modifications, and also for a wide class of claim distributions including (the non-super- exponential) exponential claims. We prove two large deviations principles: first, we obtain the LDP for risk processes on D∈[0,1] with the Skorohod topology. In this case, we provide an explicit form for the rate function, in which the safety loading condition appears naturally. The second theorem allows us to obtain the LDP for Aggregate Claims processes on D∈[0,∞) with a different time-scale modification. As an application of the first result we estimate the ruin probability, and for the second result we work explicit calculations for the case of exponential claims.

Russian and Foreign Experience Review of Territorial Geocryological Hazards Assessment and Risks of Geocryological Processes' Impact

Hazards and risks assessment of dangerous geocryological processes is actual problem in connection with climate change.Permafrost is widespread in Russia,Canada,the USA(Alaska), China,Mongolia and in mountain regions.Currently there are many papers concerning permafrost-related hazards,but the conceptual and based techniques are not available.Different approaches for solving this problem are considered in the paper.The generally accessible techniques of geocryological processes quantitative risk assessment are not available.The problem lies in uncertainty appearing from

Research on Risk Management of Cross-Sea Bridges Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process—Taking Hangzhou Bay Bridge as an Example

Today, as the process of urbanization is accelerating, the country builds an extensive transportation network through bridges and roads, which facilitates the daily travel of the people and greatly promotes the development of the national economy. However, due to the cross-sea bridge spanning the bay, the overall scale, the complex construction environment, and the high technology content, the objective existence of risk factors in the construction process cannot be completely avoided. In the construction of cross-sea bridges, once a construction safety accident occurs, it will cause irreparable losses to the construction of the project. Taking Hangzhou Bay Bridge as an actual case, using the Analytic Hierarchy Process to identify possible risk factors during the life cycle of Hangzhou Bay Bridge, establish a corresponding risk evaluation system to evaluate the importance and probability of risk, and to rank the importance of risks, and control the corresponding construction risks by adopting measures such as risk transfer and risk retention. The research example shows that the project risk of the cross-sea bridge project can be combined with the analytic hierarchy process to identify, analyze and evaluate the importance of the various risks faced by the project, so as to adopt corresponding avoidance methods to reduce the project risk loss and achieve the project construction expectations Target.

长距离调水工程安全风险综合评估

以某跨流域、跨多省市的长距离调水工程为例,分析工程安全面临的各类风险事件,确定两座节制闸之间的运行调度渠段为风险评估单元,发展基于层次分析法的风险综合评估模型;以一梁式输水渡槽为例,阐释建筑物风险因子识别、风险事件分析和风险等级标准划分的方法,描述风险评估过程;以该渡槽所在的运行调度渠段为评估单元,采用层次分析法进行风险综合评估;在此基础上,对其余运行调度渠段进行风险综合评估,讨论造成较大风险的主要原因。结果表明:提出的方法辨识出了较大风险的运行调度渠段,造成运行调度渠段工程安全风险综合评估结果为较大风险的因素可归结为左岸水库溃坝或超调水工程防洪标准泄洪导致的风险、交叉河道过流能力不足风险以及左排下游通道排水不畅风险等,进而有针对性地提出了风险管控措施。研究结果可为类似长距离调水工程安全风险综合评估和管控提供参考。