What is the quantitative risk of gastric cancer in the first-degree relatives of patients? A meta-analysis

AIMTo quantify the risk of gastric cancer in first-degree relatives of patients with the cancer.METHODSA comprehensive literature search was performed. Case-control trials comparing the frequency of a positive family history of gastric cancer in patients with gastric cancer, vs non-gastric cancer controls were retrieved. Studies with missed or non-extractable data, studies in children, abstracts, and duplicate publications were excluded. A meta-analysis of pooled odd ratios was performed using Review Manager 5.0.25. We performed subgroup analysis on Asian studies and a sensitivity analysis based on the quality of the studies, type of the outcome, sample size, and whether studies considered only first-degree relatives.RESULTSThirty-two relevant studies out of 612 potential abstracts (n = 80690 individuals) were included. 19.0% of the patients and 10.9% of the controls had at least one relative with gastric cancer (P < 0.00001). The pooled relative risk for the development of gastric cancer in association with a positive family history was 2.35 (95%CI: 1.96-2.81). The Cochran Q test for heterogeneity was positive (P < 0.00001, I² = 92%). After excluding the three outlier studies with the highest relative risks, heterogeneity remained significant (P < 0.00001, I² = 90%). The result was not different among Asian studies as compared to others and remained robust in several sensitivity analyses. In the 26 studies which exclusively analysed the history of gastric cancer in first-degree relatives, the relative risk was 2.71 (95%CI: 2.08-3.53; P < 0.00001).CONCLUSIONIndividuals with a first-degree relative affected with gastric cancer have a risk of about 2.5-fold for the development of gastric cancer. This could be due to genetic or environmental factors. Screening and preventive strategies should be developed for this high-risk population.

Cancer risk in relatives of BRCA1/2 pathogenic variant carriers in a large series of unselected patients with breast cancer

Objective:The spectrum and risk of cancer in relatives of BRCA1/2 pathogenic variant carriers in the Chinese population have not been established.Methods:A family history of cancer in 9903 unselected breast cancer patients was retrospectively analyzed.BRCA1/2 status was determined for all patients and relative risks(RRs)were calculated to evaluate cancer risk in relatives of the patients.Results:The incidences of breast cancer in female relatives of BRCA1 carriers,BRCA2 carriers,and non-carriers were 33.0%,32.2%,and 7.7%,respectively.The corresponding incidences of ovarian cancer were 11.5%,2.4%,and 0.5%,respectively.The incidences of pancreatic cancer in male relatives of BRCA1 carriers,BRCA2 carriers,and non-carriers were 1.4%,2.7%,and 0.6%,respectively.The corresponding incidences of prostate cancer were 1.0%,2.1%,and 0.4%,respectively.The risks of breast and ovarian cancers in female relatives of BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers were significantly higher than female relatives of non-carriers(BRCA1:RR=4.29,P<0.001 and RR=21.95,P<0.001;BRCA2:RR=4.19,P<0.001 and RR=4.65,P<0.001,respectively).Additionally,higher risks of pancreatic and prostate cancers were noted in male relatives of BRCA2 carriers than non-carriers(RR=4.34,P=0.001 and RR=4.86,P=0.001,respectively).Conclusions:Female relatives of BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers are at increased risk for breast and ovarian cancers,and male relatives of BRCA2 carriers are at increased risk for pancreatic and prostate cancers.

A method for measuring investment risk based on a relative risk-excess revenue model

This paper identifies the shortcomings of variance and semi-variance methods in investment risk measurement and introduces a new model,namely RR-ER (relative risk and excess revenue) model,which takes account of the revenue over expectation problem.Properties of RR-ER model and the consistency between RR-ER model and traditional risk measure model with regard to continuous random variables are discussed.Case analysis is presented to prove the practicality and efficiency of this new method.

A Note on Improving Inference of Relative Risk

Relative risk is a popular measure to compare risk of an outcome in the exposed group to the unexposed group. By applying the delta method and Central Limit Theorem, [1] derives two approximate confidence intervals for the relative risk, and [2] approximates the confidence interval for the relative risk via the likelihood ratio statistic. Both of these approximations require sample size to be large. In this paper, by adjusting the likelihood ratio statistic obtained by [2], a new method is proposed to obtain the confidence interval for the relative risk. Simulation results showed that the proposed method is extremely accurate even when the sample size is small.

Investigating Spatio-Temporal Pattern of Relative Risk of Tuberculosis in Kenya Using Bayesian Hierarchical Approaches

Proper understanding of global distribution of infectious diseases is an important part of disease management and policy making. However, data are subject to complexities caused by heterogeneities across host classes and space-time epidemic processes. This paper seeks to suggest or propose Bayesian spatio-temporal model for modeling and mapping tuberculosis relative risks in space and time as well identify risks factors associated with the tuberculosis and counties in Kenya with high tuberculosis relative risks. In this paper, we used spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical models to study the pattern of tuberculosis relative risks in Kenya. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method via WinBUGS and R packages were used for simulations and estimation of the parameter estimates. The best fitting model is selected using the Deviance Information Criterion proposed by Spiegelhalter and colleagues. Among the spatio-temporal models used, the Knorr-Held model with space-time interaction type III and IV fit the data well but type IV appears better than type III. Variation in tuberculosis risk is observed among Kenya counties and clustering among counties with high tuberculosis relative risks. The prevalence of HIV is identified as the determinant of TB. We found clustering and heterogeneity of TB risk among high rate counties and the overall tuberculosis risk is slightly decreasing from 2002-2009. We proposed that the Knorr-Held model with interaction type IV should be used to model and map Kenyan tuberculosis relative risks. Interaction of TB relative risk in space and time increases among rural counties that share boundaries with urban counties with high tuberculosis risk. This is due to the ability of models to borrow strength from neighboring counties, such that nearby counties have similar risk. Although the approaches are less than ideal, we hope that our study provide a useful stepping stone in the development of spatial and spatio-temporal methodology for the statistical analysis of risk from tuberculosis in Kenya.

Estimation of Distribution Function Based on Presmoothed Relative-Risk Function

In this article, the lifetime data subjecting to right random censoring is considered. Nonparametric estimation of the distribution function based on the conception of presmoothed estimation of relative-risk function and the properties of the estimator by using methods of numerical modeling are discussed. In the model under consideration, the estimates were compared using numerical methods to determine which of the estimates is actually better.

Risk factors for congenital nasolacrimal duct obstruction in children under two years of age

·AIM:To identify various risk factors that may play a significant role in the development of congenital nasolacrimal duct obstruction(CNLDO).·METHODS:This observational case-control study included a case group of 122 children less than two years of age with CNLDO who underwent probing and irrigation treatment at the ophthalmology department of Imam Khomeini Hospital in Ahvaz,Iran,from June 2022 to June2024.A control group of 122 age-matched children without CNLDO was also included for comparison.Data was collected from the children's medical records.·RESULTS:The study found a significant correlation between the occurrence of CNLDO and several maternal factors,such as preeclampsia,the use of levothyroxine,hypothyroidism,having more than three pregnancies(gravidity>3),natural pregnancy,and gestational diabetes mellitus.Additionally,in children,factors,such as oxygen therapy,anemia,reflux,jaundice,and a family history of CNLDO in first-degree relatives were associated with CNLDO,and maternal preeclampsia and hypothyroidism were found to significantly increase the risk of developing CNLDO in children.·CONCLUSION:Given that CNLDO affects both premature and full-term children,the present findings may potentially facilitate the early identification of children and infants at risk of nasolacrimal duct obstruction,thereby preventing the onset of chronic dacryocystitis.

Association between autoimmune gastritis and gastric polyps:Clinical characteristics and risk factors

BACKGROUND The relationship between autoimmune gastritis(AIG)and gastric polyps(GPs)is not well understood.AIM To explore the clinical characteristics and risk factors of AIG with GPs in patients.METHODS This double center retrospective study included 530 patients diagnosed with AIG from July 2019 to July 2023.We collected clinical,biochemical,serological,and demographic data were of each patient.Logistic regression analyses,both multivariate and univariate,were conducted to pinpoint independent risk factors for GPs in patients with AIG patients.Receiver operating characteristic curves were utilized to establish the optimal cutoff values,sensitivity,and specificity of these risk factors for predicting GPs in patients with AIG.RESULTS Patients with GPs had a higher median age than those without GPs[61(52.25-69)years vs 58(47-66)years,P=0.006].The gastrin-17 levels were significantly elevated in patients with GPs compared with those without GPs[91.9(34.2-138.9)pmol/mL vs 60.9(12.6-98.4)pmol/mL,P<0.001].Additionally,the positive rate of parietal cell antibody(PCA)antibody was higher in these patients than in those without GPs(88.6%vs 73.6%,P<0.001).Multivariate and univariate analyses revealed that PCA positivity[odds ratio(OR)=2.003,P=0.017],pepsinogen II(OR=1.053,P=0.015),and enterochromaffin like cells hyperplasia(OR=3.116,P<0.001)were significant risk factors for GPs,while pepsinogen I was identified as a protective factor.CONCLUSION PCA positivity and enterochromaffin like cells hyperplasia are significant risk factor for the development of GPs in patients with AIG.Elevated gastrin-17 levels may also play a role in this process.These findings suggest potential targets for further research and therapeutic intervention in managing GPs in patients with AIG.

Prediabetes and atrial fibrillation risk stratification,phenotyping,and possible reversal to normoglycemia

Patients admitted with prediabetes and atrial fibrillation are at high risk for major adverse cardiac or cerebrovascular events independent of confounding variables.The shared pathophysiology between these three serious but common diseases and their association with atherosclerotic cardiovascular risk factors establish a vicious circle culminating in high atherogenicity.Because of that,it is of paramount importance to perform risk stratification of patients with prediabetes to define phenotypes that benefit from various interventions.Furthermore,stress hyperglycemia assessment of hospitalized patients and consensus on the definition of prediabetes is vital.The roles lifestyle and metformin play in prediabetes are well established.However,the role of glucagon-like peptide agonists and metabolic surgery is less clear.Prediabetes is considered an intermediate between normoglycemia and diabetes along the blood glucose continuum.One billion people are expected to suffer from prediabetes by the year 2045.Therefore,realworld randomized controlled trials to assess major adverse cardiac or cerebrovascular event risk reduction and reversal/prevention of type 2 diabetes among patients are needed to determine the proper interventions.

Burden of mental disorders and risk factors in the Western Pacific region from 1990 to 2021

BACKGROUND The burden of mental disorders(MD)in the Western Pacific Region(WPR)re-mains a critical public health concern,with substantial variations across demogra-phics and countries.AIM To analyze the burden of MD in the WPR from 1990 to 2021,along with associated risk factors,to reveal changing trends and emerging challenges.METHODS We used data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021,analyzing prevalence,incidence,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)of MD from 1990 to 2021.Statistical methods included age-standardisation and uncertainty analysis to address variations in population structure and data completeness.RESULTS Between 1990 and 2021,the prevalence of MD rose from 174.40 million cases[95%uncertainty interval(UI):160.17-189.84]to 234.90 million cases(95%UI:219.04-252.50),with corresponding DALYs increasing from 22.8 million(95%UI:17.22-28.79)to 32.07 million(95%UI:24.50-40.68).During this period,the burden of MD shifted towards older age groups.Depressive and anxiety disorders were predominant,with females showing higher DALYs for depressive and anxiety disorders,and males more affected by conduct disorders,attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder,and autism spectrum disorders.Australia,New Zealand,and Malaysia reported the highest burdens,whereas Vietnam,China,and Brunei Darussalam reported the lowest.Additionally,childhood sexual abuse and bullying,and intimate partner violence emerged as significant risk factors.CONCLUSION This study highlights the significant burden of MD in the WPR,with variations by age,gender,and nation.The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has exacerbated the situation,emphasizing the need for a coordinated response.

Physiology and health assessment,risk balance,and model for endstage liver disease scores:Postoperative outcome of liver transplantation

BACKGROUND Liver transplantation aims to increase the survival of patients with end-stage liver diseases and improve their quality of life.The number of organs available for transplantation is lower than the demand.To provide fair organ distribution,predictive mortality scores have been developed.AIM To compare the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV(APACHE IV),balance of risk(BAR),and model for end-stage liver disease(MELD)scores as predictors of mortality.METHODS Retrospective cohort study,which included 283 adult patients in the postoperative period of deceased donor liver transplantation from 2014 to 2018.RESULTS The transplant recipients were mainly male,with a mean age of 58.1 years.Donors were mostly male,with a mean age of 41.6 years.The median cold ischemia time was 3.1 hours,and the median intensive care unit stay was 5 days.For APACHE IV,a mean of 59.6 was found,BAR 10.7,and MELD 24.2.The 28-day mortality rate was 9.5%,and at 90 days,it was 3.5%.The 28-day mortality prediction for APACHE IV was very good[area under the curve(AUC):0.85,P<0.001,95%CI:0.76-0.94],P<0.001,BAR(AUC:0.70,P<0.001,95%CI:0.58–0.81),and MELD(AUC:0.66,P<0.006,95%CI:0.55-0.78),P<0.008.At 90 days,the data for APACHE IV were very good(AUC:0.80,P<0.001,95%CI:0.71–0.90)and moderate for BAR and MELD,respectively,(AUC:0.66,P<0.004,95%CI:0.55–0.77),(AUC:0.62,P<0.026,95%CI:0.51–0.72).All showed good discrimination between deaths and survivors.As for the best value for liver transplantation,it was significant only for APACHE IV(P<0.001).CONCLUSION The APACHE IV assessment score was more accurate than BAR and MELD in predicting mortality in deceased donor liver transplant recipients.

Survey and Prospect for Applying Knowledge Graph in Enterprise Risk Management

Enterprise risk management holds significant importance in fostering sustainable growth of businesses and in serving as a critical element for regulatory bodies to uphold market order.Amidst the challenges posed by intricate and unpredictable risk factors,knowledge graph technology is effectively driving risk management,leveraging its ability to associate and infer knowledge from diverse sources.This review aims to comprehensively summarize the construction techniques of enterprise risk knowledge graphs and their prominent applications across various business scenarios.Firstly,employing bibliometric methods,the aim is to uncover the developmental trends and current research hotspots within the domain of enterprise risk knowledge graphs.In the succeeding section,systematically delineate the technical methods for knowledge extraction and fusion in the standardized construction process of enterprise risk knowledge graphs.Objectively comparing and summarizing the strengths and weaknesses of each method,we provide recommendations for addressing the existing challenges in the construction process.Subsequently,categorizing the applied research of enterprise risk knowledge graphs based on research hotspots and risk category standards,and furnishing a detailed exposition on the applicability of technical routes and methods.Finally,the future research directions that still need to be explored in enterprise risk knowledge graphs were discussed,and relevant improvement suggestions were proposed.Practitioners and researchers can gain insights into the construction of technical theories and practical guidance of enterprise risk knowledge graphs based on this foundation.

A risk assessment method considering risk attributes and work safety informational needs and its application

The technological revolution has spawned a new generation of industrial systems,but it has also put forward higher requirements for safety management accuracy,timeliness,and systematicness.Risk assessment needs to evolve to address the existing and future challenges by considering the new demands and advancements in safety management.The study aims to propose a systematic and comprehensive risk assessment method to meet the needs of process system safety management.The methodology first incorporates possibility,severity,and dynamicity(PSD)to structure the“51X”evaluation indicator system,including the inherent,management,and disturbance risk factors.Subsequently,the four-tier(risk point-unit-enterprise-region)risk assessment(RA)mathematical model has been established to consider supervision needs.And in conclusion,the application of the PSD-RA method in ammonia refrigeration workshop cases and safety risk monitoring systems is presented to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed PSD-RA method in safety management.The findings show that the PSD-RA method can be well integrated with the needs of safety work informatization,which is also helpful for implementing the enterprise's safety work responsibility and the government's safety supervision responsibility.

Factors affecting farmers'choice to adopt risk management strategies:The application of multivariate and multinomial probit models

This study investigates the factors that impact farmers'adoption of risk management strategies(RMS)in Pakistan during times of uncertainty.The study examines farmers'adoption of RMS using both multinomial probit(MNP)and multivariate probit(MVP).Data were collected from 382 farmers sampled from four districts in KhyberPakhtunkhwa(KP)province of Pakistan via a multistage sampling technique.This study utilizes the MNP model,considering the assumption of Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives(IIA)and incorporating correlated error terms.The objective is to understand farmers'behavior in risky situations and determine if there is heterogeneity.Results are compared with the MVP model to assess robustness and gain deeper understanding of farmers'decisionmaking processes.The research findings reveal that our results are robust,and farmers behave homogeneously in various RMS scenarios.Farmers adopt RMS individually or in combination to mitigate the adverse effects of natural calamities on their livelihood.The risk-averse farmers,who perceive weather-related risks as a threat,access credits and information,and have farms close to a river are more likely to adopt RMS,irrespective of the format of the strategies available.Moreover,the predicted probabilities and correlation of the RMS and RM categories have strengthened our model estimation.These findings provide insights into the behavior of farmers in adopting RMS which are helpful for policymakers and stakeholders in developing strategies to mitigate the impacts of natural calamities on farmers.

Review of Empirical Studies on Climate Risk—Effects and Activism

This review focuses on major contemporary empirical studies that examine both the physical and regulatory sides of climate risk. These studies explore how climate risk affects firms’ operating performance and leverage, stock and bond valuation, cost of capital, and managerial behavior. We also discuss how the effect of climate risk on real estate markets depends on individuals’ beliefs about climate change. Furthermore, we summarize papers on climate risk activism and how firms can employ financial devices and technology to mitigate their climate risk. Finally, we make some recommendations for further research areas.

AssessITS: Integrating Procedural Guidelines and Practical Evaluation Metrics for Organizational IT and Cybersecurity Risk Assessment

In today’s digitally driven landscape, robust Information Technology (IT) risk assessment practices are essential for safeguarding systems, digital communication, and data. This paper introduces “AssessITS,” an actionable method designed to provide organizations with comprehensive guidelines for conducting IT and cybersecurity risk assessments. Drawing extensively from NIST 800-30 Rev 1, COBIT 5, and ISO 31000, “AssessITS” bridges the gap between high-level theoretical standards and practical implementation challenges. The paper outlines a step-by-step methodology that organizations can simply adopt to systematically identify, analyze, and mitigate IT risks. By simplifying complex principles into actionable procedures, this framework equips practitioners with the tools needed to perform risk assessments independently, without too much reliance on external vendors. The guidelines are developed to be straightforward, integrating practical evaluation metrics that allow for the precise quantification of asset values, threat levels, vulnerabilities, and impacts on confidentiality, integrity, and availability. This approach ensures that the risk assessment process is not only comprehensive but also accessible, enabling decision-makers to implement effective risk mitigation strategies customized to their unique operational contexts. “AssessITS” aims to enable organizations to enhance their IT security strength through practical, actionable guidance based on internationally recognized standards.

Rockburst risk control and mitigation in deep mining

It is important to understand and manage rockburst challenges in deep mining operations.This paper presents a systematic study of rockburst risk in underground mining,offering a detailed examination of influencing factors,risk assessment,and various control and mitigation methods.The complexities of rockburst phenomena are explained by examining factors that lead to the occurrence of rockbursts.A rockburst risk assessment using a bow-tie analysis is conducted,which provides insights into both risk evaluation and proactive control and mitigation systems.The core of the paper presents a comprehensive array of rockburst risk control and mitigation methods,which range from controls to reduce rockburst hazard,and excavation vulnerability,to controls and mitigations to reduce exposure.Strategic engineering control methods,including mine design and mining sequencing,are discussed.Tactical engineering control measures,such as ground pre-conditioning and rock support,are scrutinized,along with administrative controls like evacuation and re-entry protocols and the use of mechanized equipment.A multiple-line defense system is advocated for rockburst risk management to address the uncertainties involved in the process.Finally,emerging technologies and innovations as well as challenges are discussed,providing a roadmap for continued advancements in rockburst risk management in the future.This work serves as a valuable resource for mining professionals,researchers,and policymakers seeking a comprehensive understanding of rockburst risk management in deep mining.

Risk Analysis of the Development of Sustainable Dongtan

Dongtan is set to be developed as a sustainable urban-rural integration,aiming to attract a wide range of commercial and leisure investments.The Shanghai Industrial Investment Corporation(SIIC),the largest international investment group owned by the Shanghai municipal government,is leading the Dongtan project in partnership with Arup.The project’s risks are categorized into eight major groups:(1)Force majeure,(2)people-related risks,(3)financial and economic risks,(4)political and country risks,(5)environmental risks,(6)completion-related risks,(7)design-related risks,and(8)technology risks.Among these,political risk is particularly notable for its high probability and significant impact.Effective project risk management is essential to foresee and address uncertainties that could jeopardize the project’s objectives and timelines.Appropriate strategies must be implemented to manage and mitigate these risks.

Climate change drives flooding risk increases in the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin(YRB)has experienced severe floods and continuous riverbed elevation throughout history.Global climate change has been suggested to be driving a worldwide increase in flooding risk.However,owing to insufficient evidence,the quantitative correlation between flooding and climate change remains illdefined.We present a long time series of maximum flood discharge in the YRB dating back to 1843 compiled from historical documents and instrument measurements.Variations in yearly maximum flood discharge show distinct periods:a dramatic decreasing period from 1843 to 1950,and an oscillating gentle decreasing from 1950 to 2021,with the latter period also showing increasing more extreme floods.A Mann-Kendall test analysis suggests that the latter period can be further split into two distinct sub-periods:an oscillating gentle decreasing period from 1950 to 2000,and a clear recent increasing period from 2000 to 2021.We further predict that climate change will cause an ongoing remarkable increase in future flooding risk and an∼44.4 billion US dollars loss of floods in the YRB in 2100.

Risk Assessment of Deep-Water Horizontal X-Tree Installation

Due to the high potential risk and many influencing factors of subsea horizontal X-tree installation,to guarantee the successful completion of sea trials of domestic subsea horizontal X-trees,this paper established a modular risk evaluation model based on a fuzzy fault tree.First,through the analysis of the main process oftree down and combining the Offshore&Onshore Reliability Data(OREDA)failure statistics and the operation procedure and the data provided by the job,the fault tree model of risk analysis of the tree down installation was established.Then,by introducing the natural language of expert comprehensive evaluation and combining fuzzy principles,quantitative analysis was carried out,and the fuzzy number was used to calculate the failure probability of a basic event and the occurrence probability of a top event.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of basic events,the basic events of top events significantly affected were determined,and risk control and prevention measures for the corresponding high-risk factors were proposed for subsea horizontal X-tree down installation.