The income approach of asset valuation estimates the asset value according to the asset-discounted future earnings or the capitalizing process. As a result, a reasonable prediction of asset-expected future returns has...The income approach of asset valuation estimates the asset value according to the asset-discounted future earnings or the capitalizing process. As a result, a reasonable prediction of asset-expected future returns has become one of the core contents of the income approach. The forecast on expected future earnings is generally based on many uncertain factors, such as strict conditions of assumption and the complexity of environment. However, the current valuation practice in this aspect varies greatly and sometimes depends on personally experienced judgment of appraisers. Therefore, the obtained valuation results tend to be simplified and absolutized. This paper takes a listed company in China as an example to explore the way of inserting an uncertainty analysis into the prediction of the income approach, and then to obtain a series of valuation results within a certain probability fluctuation range. Finally, it puts forward some suggestions about the Monte Carlo simulation （MCS）.展开更多
This paper presents structural approach for the valuation of credit risk. Credit risk arises whenever a borrower is expecting to use future cash flows to pay a current debt. It is closely tied to the potential return ...This paper presents structural approach for the valuation of credit risk. Credit risk arises whenever a borrower is expecting to use future cash flows to pay a current debt. It is closely tied to the potential return of investment, the most notable being that the yields on bonds correlate strongly to their perceived credit risk. Structural approach is based on the volatility of the total value of the firm. The credit risk to this measured in a standard way. The random time of default is defined in an intuition way. The default event is linked to the notion of the firm＇s insolvency. This approach is known to generated low credit spreads for corporate bonds close to maturity. It requires a judicious specification of the default barrier in order to get a good fit to the observed spread curves.展开更多
This paper introduces a new approach for measuring shareholder value creation （called adjusted economic profit （EP）） which combines the advantages of both EP and APV （adjusted present value） methods. In particul...This paper introduces a new approach for measuring shareholder value creation （called adjusted economic profit （EP）） which combines the advantages of both EP and APV （adjusted present value） methods. In particular, the shareholder value creation over a period is derived as the sum of two components： the EP relating purely to the operations of the company and the EP generated each period due to the tax benefit that arises from debt financing. We consider our results to be important for analysts and decision makers involved in appraising business performance or making investment decisions and HR professionals as well.展开更多
The t-distribution has a “fat tail” feature, which is more suitable than the normal probability density function to describe the distribution characteristics of return on assets. The difficulty of using t-distributi...The t-distribution has a “fat tail” feature, which is more suitable than the normal probability density function to describe the distribution characteristics of return on assets. The difficulty of using t-distribution to price European options is that a fat tail can lead to a deviation in one integral required for option pricing. We use a distribution called logarithmic truncated t-distribution to price European options. A risk neutral valuation method was used to obtain a European option pricing model with logarithmic truncated t-distribution.展开更多
International financial adjustment is the process whereby valuation shifts from asset price and currency changes result in relatively durable net wealth transfers across countries＇ international balance sheets. Thisp...International financial adjustment is the process whereby valuation shifts from asset price and currency changes result in relatively durable net wealth transfers across countries＇ international balance sheets. Thispaper applies a financial valuation approach to estimate the direction and the broad extent of recent international financial adjustments on China international balance sheet. We estimate China＇s international balance sheet losses resulting from the valuation shifts over the period 2005 2010 and reveal that international currency shifts over the past decade have also generated a range of non-balance sheet financial and monetary adjustment pressures for China. This paper also evaluates how China＇s evolving international financial policy arrangements could better mitigate China＇s exposure to international financial adjustments. These arrangements include a more effective currency mechanism and the mechanisms to internationalize the RMB to buffer international financial valuation shocks展开更多
文摘The income approach of asset valuation estimates the asset value according to the asset-discounted future earnings or the capitalizing process. As a result, a reasonable prediction of asset-expected future returns has become one of the core contents of the income approach. The forecast on expected future earnings is generally based on many uncertain factors, such as strict conditions of assumption and the complexity of environment. However, the current valuation practice in this aspect varies greatly and sometimes depends on personally experienced judgment of appraisers. Therefore, the obtained valuation results tend to be simplified and absolutized. This paper takes a listed company in China as an example to explore the way of inserting an uncertainty analysis into the prediction of the income approach, and then to obtain a series of valuation results within a certain probability fluctuation range. Finally, it puts forward some suggestions about the Monte Carlo simulation （MCS）.
文摘This paper presents structural approach for the valuation of credit risk. Credit risk arises whenever a borrower is expecting to use future cash flows to pay a current debt. It is closely tied to the potential return of investment, the most notable being that the yields on bonds correlate strongly to their perceived credit risk. Structural approach is based on the volatility of the total value of the firm. The credit risk to this measured in a standard way. The random time of default is defined in an intuition way. The default event is linked to the notion of the firm＇s insolvency. This approach is known to generated low credit spreads for corporate bonds close to maturity. It requires a judicious specification of the default barrier in order to get a good fit to the observed spread curves.
文摘This paper introduces a new approach for measuring shareholder value creation （called adjusted economic profit （EP）） which combines the advantages of both EP and APV （adjusted present value） methods. In particular, the shareholder value creation over a period is derived as the sum of two components： the EP relating purely to the operations of the company and the EP generated each period due to the tax benefit that arises from debt financing. We consider our results to be important for analysts and decision makers involved in appraising business performance or making investment decisions and HR professionals as well.
文摘The t-distribution has a “fat tail” feature, which is more suitable than the normal probability density function to describe the distribution characteristics of return on assets. The difficulty of using t-distribution to price European options is that a fat tail can lead to a deviation in one integral required for option pricing. We use a distribution called logarithmic truncated t-distribution to price European options. A risk neutral valuation method was used to obtain a European option pricing model with logarithmic truncated t-distribution.
文摘International financial adjustment is the process whereby valuation shifts from asset price and currency changes result in relatively durable net wealth transfers across countries＇ international balance sheets. Thispaper applies a financial valuation approach to estimate the direction and the broad extent of recent international financial adjustments on China international balance sheet. We estimate China＇s international balance sheet losses resulting from the valuation shifts over the period 2005 2010 and reveal that international currency shifts over the past decade have also generated a range of non-balance sheet financial and monetary adjustment pressures for China. This paper also evaluates how China＇s evolving international financial policy arrangements could better mitigate China＇s exposure to international financial adjustments. These arrangements include a more effective currency mechanism and the mechanisms to internationalize the RMB to buffer international financial valuation shocks
