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A Framework for Modern Risk-Informed Root Cause Analysis Process
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作者 Dorian Conger Ivan Vrbanic +1 位作者 Ivica Basic Kenneth J.Elsea 《Journal of Energy and Power Engineering》 2020年第7期211-224,共14页
The paper discusses the framework for a risk-informed root cause analysis process.Such process enables scaling of the analysis performed based on the risk associated with the undesired event or condition,thereby creat... The paper discusses the framework for a risk-informed root cause analysis process.Such process enables scaling of the analysis performed based on the risk associated with the undesired event or condition,thereby creating tiers of analysis where the greater the risk,the more sophisticated the analysis.In a risk-informed root cause analysis process,a situation is normally not analyzed at a level less than what actually occurred.However,a situation may be investigated as though the consequence were greater than actually happened,especially if only slight differences in circumstances could result in a significantly higher consequence.While operational events or safety issues are normally expected to result only with negligible or marginal actual consequences,many of those would actually have certain potential to develop or propagate into catastrophic events.This potential can be expressed qualitatively or quantitatively.Risk-informing of root cause analysis relies on mapping the event or safety issue into a risk matrix which,traditionally,is a two-dimensional probability-consequence matrix.A new concept employed in the risk matrix for root cause analysis is that,while the probability reflects the observed or expected range of values(retaining,thus,its“traditional”meaning),the consequence reflects not only the observed or materialized impact(such as failure of equipment)but,also,its potential to propagate or develop into highly undesirable final state.The paper presents main elements of risk-informed root cause analysis process and discusses qualitative and quantitative aspects and approaches to determination of risk significance of operational events or safety issues. 展开更多
关键词 Root cause risk-inform RISK probability cause analysis safety precedence significance determination risk matrix probabalistic margin conditional probability conditional risk ANALYST training methods
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核电厂风险指引的安全裕度特性技术研究 被引量:3
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作者 王贺 孙大彬 +1 位作者 徐安琪 张历轩 《中国基础科学》 2021年第4期35-40,共6页
首先概述风险指引的安全裕度特性分析技术的背景及国内外技术发展现状,对风险指引的安全裕度特性分析的关键技术进展进行了归纳。然后重点阐述风险指引的安全裕度理论方法、动态概率风险分析与系统动态仿真耦合模型,以及风险指引的安全... 首先概述风险指引的安全裕度特性分析技术的背景及国内外技术发展现状,对风险指引的安全裕度特性分析的关键技术进展进行了归纳。然后重点阐述风险指引的安全裕度理论方法、动态概率风险分析与系统动态仿真耦合模型,以及风险指引的安全裕度特性分析计算平台的研发情况。最后提出今后技术发展的建议。 展开更多
关键词 风险指引的安全裕度特性 离散动态事件树 耦合分析软件 核电厂
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基于RAVEN的SGTR事故概率安全裕度分析方法研究 被引量:1
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作者 孔焕俊 刘子寅 +1 位作者 徐安琪 王贺 《核动力工程》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2021年第6期120-127,共8页
介绍了一种基于RAVEN软件通过蒙特卡洛(MC)抽样的风险指引的安全裕度特性分析(RISMC)方法,综合分析热工参数、人员动作时刻不确定性对蒸汽发生器传热管破裂(SGTR)事故安全裕度的影响,并将计算结果与传统安全评价方法进行比证。针对事故... 介绍了一种基于RAVEN软件通过蒙特卡洛(MC)抽样的风险指引的安全裕度特性分析(RISMC)方法,综合分析热工参数、人员动作时刻不确定性对蒸汽发生器传热管破裂(SGTR)事故安全裕度的影响,并将计算结果与传统安全评价方法进行比证。针对事故关键影响参数,基于MC抽样量化影响安全裕度的关键参数样本,利用RELAP5程序建立SGTR事故的系统仿真模型,通过RAVEN软件进行耦合计算并加以分析,最终获得该电厂模型在辅助给水系统失效情况下SGTR事故的概率安全裕度及其对各影响参数的敏感度。 展开更多
关键词 风险指引的安全裕度特性分析(RISMC) 蒙特卡洛(MC)抽样 RAVEN 蒸汽发生器传热管破裂事故(SGTR)
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