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基于年防洪标准的水库分期优化调度研究 被引量:1
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作者 张涛 蔡振华 +1 位作者 刘英豪 于东平 《水资源与水工程学报》 CSCD 2018年第1期128-133,共6页
以棉花滩水库为例,在不降低年防洪标准的前提下进行汛限水位分期优化调度。采用传统水文频率分析法推求分期设计洪水,分期洪水组合概率应与年洪水概率一致;建立分期设计洪水频率与相应防洪库容的两变量序列,根据拟定汛限水位的防洪库容... 以棉花滩水库为例,在不降低年防洪标准的前提下进行汛限水位分期优化调度。采用传统水文频率分析法推求分期设计洪水,分期洪水组合概率应与年洪水概率一致;建立分期设计洪水频率与相应防洪库容的两变量序列,根据拟定汛限水位的防洪库容插值求得防洪风险率;在分期防洪风险率组合满足年防洪标准的前提下,根据发电、调洪规则及其它约束条件进行长系列模拟,对各分期进行风险和效益转移,寻求整体最大效益。结果表明:汛限水位前汛期取168.78 m、后汛期取169.58 m,防洪风险率分别为1.217%、0.783%,组合风险率为1.99%;与年防洪标准2%基本一致,同时具有较大的兴利效益。 展开更多
关键词 汛限水位 分期调度 概率组合 长系列模拟 风险效益转移 效益最大化
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Early infant male circumcision:Systematic review,risk-benefit analysis,and progress in policy 被引量:2
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作者 Brian J Morris Sean E Kennedy +6 位作者 Alex D Wodak Adrian Mindel David Golovsky Leslie Schrieber Eugenie R Lumbers David J Handelsman John B Ziegler 《World Journal of Clinical Pediatrics》 2017年第1期89-102,共14页
AIM To determine whether recent evidence-based United States polices on male circumcision(MC) apply to comparable Anglophone countries,Australia and New Zealand.METHODS Articles in 2005 through 2015 were retrieved fro... AIM To determine whether recent evidence-based United States polices on male circumcision(MC) apply to comparable Anglophone countries,Australia and New Zealand.METHODS Articles in 2005 through 2015 were retrieved from PubM ed using the keyword "circumcision" together with 36 relevant subtopics.A further PubM ed search was performed for articles published in 2016.Searches of the EMBASE and Cochrane databases did not yield additional citable articles.Articles were assessed for quality and those rated 2+ and above according to the Scottish Intercollegiate Grading System were studied further.The most relevant andrepresentative of the topic were included.Bibliographies were examined to retrieve further key references.Randomized controlled trials,recent high quality systematic reviews or meta-analyses(level 1++ or 1+ evidence) were prioritized for inclusion.A risk-benefit analysis of articles rated for quality was performed.For efficiency and reliability,recent randomized controlled trials,metaanalyses,high quality systematic reviews and large welldesigned studies were used if available.Internet searches were conducted for other relevant information,including policies and Australian data on claims under Medicare for MC.RESULTS Evidence-based policy statements by the American Academy of Pediatrics(AAP) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC) support infant and later age male circumcision(MC) as a desirable public health measure.Our systematic review of relevant literature over the past decade yielded 140 journal articles that met our inclusion criteria.Together,these showed that early infant MC confers immediate and lifelong benefits by protecting against urinary tract infections having potential adverse long-term renal effects,phimosis that causes difficult and painful erections and "ballooning" during urination,inflammatory skin conditions,inferior penile hygiene,candidiasis,various sexually transmissible infections in both sexes,genital ulcers,and penile,prostate and cervical cancer.Our risk-benefit analysis showed that benefits exceeded procedural risks,which are predominantly minor,by up to 200 to 1.We estimated that more than 1 in 2 uncircumcised males will experience an adverse foreskin-related medical condition over their lifetime.Wide-ranging evidence from surveys,physiological measurements,and the anatomical location of penile sensory receptors responsible for sexual sensation strongly and consistently suggested that MC has no detrimental effect on sexual function,sensitivity or pleasure.United States studies showed that early infant MC is cost saving.The evidence supporting early infant MC has further strengthened since the positive AAP and CDC reviews.CONCLUSION Affirmative MC policies are needed in Australia and New Zealand.Routine provision of accurate,unbiased education,and access in public hospitals,will maximize health and financial benefits. 展开更多
关键词 Male CIRCUMCISION EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY Infants Adults Urinary tract INFECTIONS Adverse events Sexually transmitted INFECTIONS GENITAL cancers riskbenefit analysis COST-BENEFIT
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